Essential Research’s fortnightly poll is due this week, although that will be less interesting than it was if it’s decided to stop publishing voting intention numbers, as was the case with last fortnight’s poll. RedBridge Group has also been in the field, with results potentially to be published this week. Other than that:
• Nine Newspapers reports Gavin Pearce, Liberal member for Braddon in north-western Tasmania, is withholding his preselection nomination until his electoral neighbour, Bass MP Bridget Archer, is expelled from the party. Archer crossed the floor last week to vote against Peter Dutton’s motion for a royal commission into child sex abuse in Indigenous communities, which the hitherto indulgent Dutton described as a “mistake”. The report says four other conservative MPs are backing Pearce’s course, with one saying there was “a chance party officials would side with him”, while acknowledging this would likely mean Archer retaining her seat as an independent.
• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports that Scott Yung, who came within 69 votes of defeating Chris Minns in Kogarah amid a backlash against state Labor among the Chinese community at the 2019 state election (UPDATE: It is noted in comments that Yung merely came within 69 votes of Minns on the primary vote, and that the final two-party margin was actually 1.8%)), is set to become the Liberal candidate for Bennelong after the withdrawal of rival nominee Craig Chung. Silmalis reports Yung had the backing of Peter Dutton, whereas Chung was favoured by moderates. Jerome Laxale gained the seat for Labor in 2022, the party’s second ever win in the seat after Maxine McKew’s famous victory over John Howard in 2007.
• Next door in North Sydney, which Trent Zimmerman lost to teal independent Kylea Tink at last year’s election, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports that Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department, has nominated for Liberal preselection. Lambert’s preselection brochure says the seat was “stolen at the last election by a concerning new wave of politics”, and shows her pictured alongside conservative favourite Katherine Deves. The matter could be complicated by the current redistribution process, in which the seat could be radically redrawn or potentially abolished.
• Further to the above, responses to the call for public suggestions for the redistribution of New South Wales seats will be published on the Australian Electoral Commission site today, presumably to include the wish lists of the major parties and other interested actors.
Meanwhile, Japan is militarizing islands…
https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2023/10/okinawa-flee-conflict/index.html?shell
Socrates,
Thanks for recommending Allan Gyngell’s book “Fear of Abandonment “.
Have only just started it but am impressed by the scope of his coverage.
Kevin on twitter…
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1719259864168575212
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
After what I’m taking to be a rogue respondent preferences flow last week Morgan is back to something familiar with 53-47 ALP off primaries of ALP 32.5 L-NP 35 Green 15 others 17.5
6:47 PM · Oct 31, 2023
As mentioned by nadia88, the figures are at the bottom of the page.
https://www.roymorgan.com/
The TPP gets a mention in this video.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9529-roy-morgan-update-october-31-2023
michael @ #329 Tuesday, October 31st, 2023 – 5:28 pm
Long Haul truckers will always go for the cheapest fuel, so maybe that hydrogen story today will feed into being a cheaper fuel source for them? I’m not au fait on the mechanical engineering aspect of it but I seem to remember reading somewhere that hydrogen was the best bet for them for the future.
And this is a rough scenario that I’ll sketch out. Saudi Arabia and Iran are foes not friends, so even though Saudi Arabia and Russia were co-ordinating a price squeeze on fuel, as Russia and Iran are increasingly close, and Iran helped supply weapons to … Saudi Arabia may decide to hell with that and open its spigots.
I have no clue of course. 🙂
Looks like Dutton wears a bullet proof vest under his suit..
Perfectly smooth suit & shirt.. both highly padded..
@Sceptic
Might be feeling vulnerable as a result of plucky young teenagers destroying his horcruxes?
Scepticsays:
Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 7:45 pm
“Looks like Dutton wears a bullet proof vest under his suit..
…….
Perfectly smooth suit & shirt.. both highly padded..”
And the head is …. ?
PaulTu @ #356 Tuesday, October 31st, 2023 – 7:52 pm
An egg. 😐
A little publicised case, based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, is underway in Denver, which could affect Trump’s run for the presidency. A number of other states are awaiting the outcome, which should it go against the “Orangeblowfish” will end up in the SCOTUS.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/30/politics/takeaways-trump-14th-amendment-trial-colorado/index.html
I saw 4 Mini Me Tradies, 2 Skeletons, a Mad Professor and a Morticia Adams out Trick or Treating in my local area tonight. Oh, and some stressed looking parents. Juggling groups of kids is hard work! 😀
Quasar
“ Thanks for recommending Allan Gyngell’s book “Fear of Abandonment “.
Have only just started it but am impressed by the scope of his coverage.”
You are very welcome. I thought I had already read a lot of history, but I learnt a lot from Gyngell’s book, especially on countries motives.
It certainly made a mockery of the idea that we are so close to any country that we agree with them on everything. We don’t. We have argued a lot. You will see what I mean in the chapters dealing with Australia and Indonesia vis a vis the United States.
Independent MP Meg Webb has named in parliament the 22 current and former public servants Tasmania’s child sexual abuse commission of inquiry may have levelled allegations of misconduct against.
The list includes the Solicitor-General, the Commissioner for Children and Young People, the Custodial Inspector and Health Ombudsman, the Integrity Commission chief executive, and current and former staff associated with the Ashley Youth Detention Centre and Launceston General Hospital.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-31/tasmanian-public-servants-named-potential-misconduct-concerns/103044044
Cat and Michael
You raise good questions about oil prices, fuel demand, EVs and hydrogen.
First thing to say is that oil is a global market and Australia imports less than 2% of the globe demand. So our trends make zero difference to the world price.
Second EVs are hugely beneficial in cutting oil supply in the long term but not in the short term. It will take years, with Australia starting behind the curve. In the short term EV sales are approaching 10% of total car sales, but EVs are still less than 1% of the total car fleet on the road. Even when we reach 100% EV sales (2035?) that means the % of EVs on the road will increase about 5% per year.
Third I have huge reservations about hydrogen as a viable fuel option. In Australia I doubt it will ever be more than a niche option for people in remote areas. I suggest people check the economics of hydrogen fuel and vehicles (FCEVs). They are twice the cost of EVs, less efficient, and you still have to buy the fuel.
Several major car manufacturers (VW and Honda) have tried and given up on FCEVs. Last year the world made 8 million EVs and 40,000 FCEVs. Australia bought more EVs last year than the world bought FCEVs.
The real future of hydrogen is for energy in places with lousy renewables (e.g. Japan) and to replace coking coal in industrial processes like steel production.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 8:20 pm
Independent MP Meg Webb has named in parliament the 22 current and former public servants Tasmania’s child sexual abuse commission of inquiry may have levelled allegations of misconduct against.
The list includes the Solicitor-General, the Commissioner for Children and Young People, the Custodial Inspector and Health Ombudsman, the Integrity Commission chief executive, and current and former staff associated with the Ashley Youth Detention Centre and Launceston General Hospital.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-31/tasmanian-public-servants-named-potential-misconduct-concerns/103044044‘
——————————————————-
Bloody hell.
Holden hillbilly
Thanks that is a shocker about Tasmania and child abuse.
Serious question- does Tasmania have an ICAC? Sounds like they need one.
The Liberal Party stenographer, Latika Bourke, is on the job again:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/scott-morrison-warns-pm-china-could-take-advantage-of-his-visit-20231031-p5eg8d.html
I think Scott Morrison is the absolute last person the Prime Minister needs to take advice from wrt China. He’s the guy who blew the relationship up.
I see that the progressive crowd are fighting over who’s fault the failure of the voice was as I predicted. GetUp is attacking Yes23 for not listening and vice versa and the ALP is being blamed for now bringing it on.
As the old saying goes success has many parents but failure is always an orphan.
“And the head is …. ?”
A harder target to hit.
In the case cited above, Trump claims the oath of office he took did not include the word “support” the Constitution – a very specious
argument, and even more ludicrous that he was not an “officer” of the US – see Section 3 of the 14 Amendment. Here’s the oath of office he took at his inauguration:
“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”
It’s obvious that the verbs ‘preserve, protect and defend’ would be found to be synonyms of ‘support’. I’m stuffed if I know where he
finds his lawyers, most of whom he doesn’t pay.
Mavis
He seems to be getting what he pays for.
“Morrison said he was pleased dialogue had resumed between Australia and China, but stressed it was not the fault of Australia that communication had stopped.”
No, it was the dumb ukulele playing fuckwit himself, not the country as a whole.
Soc,
What about Hydrogen for Heavy Vehicles?
Mavis – Trumps best lawyers at the moment demanded $3 million up front, they are representing him in the federal document case. Most of the rest are ambulance chasers, wantabes and strays…. they don’t expect to be paid but hope for a presenter role on Newsmax etc.
Andrew_Earlwood@10.28am
“Australia is an insular, selfish, frightened country, populated by ignorant small minded people.”
You can say that again!
So I did.
Cat
Hydrogen may be more feasible for really heavy vehicles where there are less economies of scale (e.g. trains and ships?). But even trucks and buses are looking doubtful.
Saab Scania in Sweden built a small fleet of hydrogen truck prime movers and trialled it with the Asko factory logistics. They abandoned it. High maintenance and operating cost is a killer for hydrogen commercial vehicles. Buses too.
People are already working on EV truck prime movers with 400+km range. Qld Main Roads is doing an EV truck trial now. We will see chains of EV truck charging stations along our highways in the future.
It will take 5 to 10 years longer to replace fossil fuel trucks than cars because of the challenge of range. But hydrogen won’t win. See
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/30/scania-ditches-fuel-cell-trucks-to-focus-on-full-electric/
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 10:36 am
Russia is not a ‘former’ colonial power.
Australia is not a ‘former’ colonial power.
Cat
Having said that hydrogen will mainly be for things like steel and cement production, that is still a large amount market for energy. About 10% of all domestic power use is in making steel, aluminum, cement and bricks.
So hydrogen export can still be a multi-billion dollar export industry. But it won’t be the main game.
Bob @ 8.42pm,
“No, it was the dumb ukulele playing fuckwit himself, not the country as a whole.”
No, it was the dumb, whip cracking, ukelele playing fuckwit himself, playing “cops”, playing ministerial charades, a compulsive liar with dodgy associates, not the country as a “hole”.
Ah but wait, there’s more!
Frankly Russia kind of was a colonial power, just they weren’t as obvious and did it by taking over “Literally who?” Central Asian nations rather than participate in the largely naval scramble for Africa and East Asia.
Like I doubt the Russian takeover of Kyrgyzstan in 1876 was as obvious as other colonial takeovers in that time, but it was still a European “Great Game” move in that area.
Also yes, Russia did participate in the East Asia colonial “game” with their establishment of Port Arthur in modern day China, but the Japanese took that from them in 1905.
Thanks for that outline, Soc. Very helpful. I can envisage outback petrol stations putting in fast charge battery stations for trucks eventually. Though I have read that in America, at least, they are moving towards battery swapping instead. A bit like you swap out a gas bottle I guess.
Can you believe the chutzpah, or the delusion, that it takes for a thoroughly disgraced, former Prime Minister such as Scott Morrison, to think he has the right to tell our current PM how to run foreign policy wrt China!?!
Boerwar:
Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 8:39 pm
[‘Mavis
He seems to be getting what he pays for.’]
You could put it that way. Most of them are batshit crazy.
B.S. Fairman:
Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 8:43 pm
[‘Mavis – Trumps best lawyers at the moment demanded $3 million up front, they are representing him in the federal document case. Most of the rest are ambulance chasers, wantabes and strays…. they don’t expect to be paid but hope for a presenter role on Newsmax etc.’]
As you’d be aware, lawyers normally require money to be paid into their trust account before any work’s done. In Trump’s case, many seem to have been overawed by the celebrity (or infamy) their client. Good to see that they’re now demanding up front fees, and those who don’t, their 15 minutes of fame.
Chris Kenny just had Michael Shelleberger from the US on Sky. He is the guy that says offshore wind farms are stuffing the sonar of whales and causing calves top be separated from mums resulting in death. He says there is proof about this in the North Atlantic Coastline.
Also, he says solar and wind power requires 300 to 600 times the land required for a base load plant running coal/LNG or nuclear. All this extra land being taken reduces our food produce areas and could create food shortages around the world if solar and wind power goes everywhere.
Plus, there is huge waste from Solar and Wind Power which no-one knows how we are going to manage. Nuclear waste, we know how to manage.
He says wind and solar is the most wasteful form of energy imaginable.
All I can say is we need to slow down and consider all options because Bowen’s experiment could be a total disaster.
“ Also, he says solar and wind power requires 300 to 600 times the land required for a base load plant running coal/LNG or nuclear. All this extra land being taken reduces our food produce areas and could create food shortages around the world if solar and wind power goes everywhere.”
What a load of tripe. The whale thing is a total lie. As if coal industry lobbyists care about whales?
And has anyone seen how much land area a single coal mine takes up?
Maybe Chris Kenny should have on a scientist or an engineer, not a libertarian going down the left to fascist pipeline head first.
Thanks michael for your What I Heard On Sky News. Very illuminating. Now, please return your head back up your arse. It is safer there.
Given Sky News’ impeccable record when it comes to soberly and objectively reporting the facts on climate change, renewables, and the environment in general, I’m sure we can take their coverage on wind farms at face value and put aside any suspicions that they may have ulterior motives here.
Judging by the most intelligent replies, P.Dutton and co need to go super hard on this.
Socrates, imagine what an ugly eyesore that mine would be if there were some wind turbines or solar arrays in the background of that photograph!
Holdenhillbilly 5.59pm
‘Chinese President Xi Jinping has told women to create a “new trend of family” after a record fall in birthrates and rising alarm over the impact of an aging population on economic growth.’
I think this is pretty much shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. Some years ago I was on holiday in Shanghai. In the main shopping mall was a statue of two very happy looking parents with a single child carrying lots of shopping bags. The government was actively trying to convince people they would be better off with only one child – and they succeeded. Admittedly, a lot of the shoppers in the mall were wealthy and upper middle class tourists from other parts of China who, when not shopping, were taking photos of themselves in front of a huge statue of Mao Zedong. There was a riot while I was there. It happened when the Apple Store ran out of the new iPhones. The growing middle class in China is full of educated women who aren’t going to be convinced to give up the lifestyle they have become accustomed to because the government wants them to breed more babies.
Wat Tyler
Socrates, imagine what an ugly eyesore that mine would be if there were some wind turbines or solar arrays in the background of that photograph!
Not to mention all those dead whales.
Um, Solar doesn’t have to go on prime agricultural land. 😐
And you know what does affect the whales? Offshore sonographic testing for Oil and Gas!
michael @ #388 Tuesday, October 31st, 2023 – 9:36 pm
Because lying through your teeth is the way to victory?
Anyone noticed an increase in the number of whales dying where we already have offshore wind farms?
I mean, it worked for a few of his predecessors.
I agree Cat what you are saying may be very true. But why does offshore wind farms get a free- pass from Albo and Bowen and bugger the consequences.
There is so much wind and solar which is going to be land-based plus all the transmission lines, who knows how much agricultural land becomes useless. No-one knows, we need to slow down.
Watt Tyler
I can hardly imagine the visual horror of more wind turbines. Give me the beauty of open cut mining.
Cat
And cows happily graze under wind turbines.
Message to self: do not frig around with water tanks at night as you might go arse up.