Essential Research’s fortnightly poll is due this week, although that will be less interesting than it was if it’s decided to stop publishing voting intention numbers, as was the case with last fortnight’s poll. RedBridge Group has also been in the field, with results potentially to be published this week. Other than that:
• Nine Newspapers reports Gavin Pearce, Liberal member for Braddon in north-western Tasmania, is withholding his preselection nomination until his electoral neighbour, Bass MP Bridget Archer, is expelled from the party. Archer crossed the floor last week to vote against Peter Dutton’s motion for a royal commission into child sex abuse in Indigenous communities, which the hitherto indulgent Dutton described as a “mistake”. The report says four other conservative MPs are backing Pearce’s course, with one saying there was “a chance party officials would side with him”, while acknowledging this would likely mean Archer retaining her seat as an independent.
• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports that Scott Yung, who came within 69 votes of defeating Chris Minns in Kogarah amid a backlash against state Labor among the Chinese community at the 2019 state election (UPDATE: It is noted in comments that Yung merely came within 69 votes of Minns on the primary vote, and that the final two-party margin was actually 1.8%)), is set to become the Liberal candidate for Bennelong after the withdrawal of rival nominee Craig Chung. Silmalis reports Yung had the backing of Peter Dutton, whereas Chung was favoured by moderates. Jerome Laxale gained the seat for Labor in 2022, the party’s second ever win in the seat after Maxine McKew’s famous victory over John Howard in 2007.
• Next door in North Sydney, which Trent Zimmerman lost to teal independent Kylea Tink at last year’s election, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports that Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department, has nominated for Liberal preselection. Lambert’s preselection brochure says the seat was “stolen at the last election by a concerning new wave of politics”, and shows her pictured alongside conservative favourite Katherine Deves. The matter could be complicated by the current redistribution process, in which the seat could be radically redrawn or potentially abolished.
• Further to the above, responses to the call for public suggestions for the redistribution of New South Wales seats will be published on the Australian Electoral Commission site today, presumably to include the wish lists of the major parties and other interested actors.
‘Lambert’s preselection brochure says the seat was “stolen at the last election by a concerning new wave of politics” …’
You don’t need a Zimmerman to know which way the wind blows.
Wow, the pre-selection moves in the NSW Liberal Party suggest that Peter Dutton is going full bore Conservative. Moderates are being challenged by Conservatives (Bridget Archer), or being overlooked for Conservative men and women (Yung and Lambert). And Katherine Deves is still lurking like the phantom menace that she is.
“ Next door in North Sydney, which Trent Zimmerman lost to teal independent Kylea Tink at last year’s election, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports that Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department, has nominated for Liberal preselection. Lambert’s preselection brochure says the seat was “stolen at the last election by a concerning new wave of politics”, and shows her pictured alongside conservative favourite Katherine Deves.”
——————————-
Thanks WB
I note with no surprise whatsoever a Liberal carefully utilising Trump’s MAGA language charging that the seat of North Sydney was “stolen at the last federal election”. That untruth didn’t take long to make its way into Australian political parlance.
North Sydney wasn’t stolen. We kicked out some guy who was a member of an ugly Right-wing populist outfit.
c@t: “Wow, the pre-selection moves in the NSW Liberal Party suggest that Peter Dutton is going full bore Conservative. Moderates are being challenged by Conservatives (Bridget Archer), or being overlooked for Conservative men and women (Yung and Lambert). And Katherine Deves is still lurking like the phantom menace that she is.”
I would read it as being more that the party base is becoming aggressively conservative despite Dutton’s efforts to keep a bit of a lid on it. I’m pretty sure that Dutton, who seems to have gone out of his way to avoid disciplining Archer up to now, would not agree with Gavin Pearce’s reported view that it’s more important that she is thrown out of the party than that the Libs hang onto Bass.
None of this makes any sense at all for the Libs in terms of winning future elections. Australia has compulsory voting and minimal gerrymandering: far right Liberals can’t expect to win lots of seats purely on the votes of the true believers. For instance, Braddon is a seat that has changed hands plenty of times over the years, and – like the rest of Tasmania – is experiencing an influx of well-off mainlanders who I would expect, on the whole, are more progressively-minded than the existing population.
I don’t want to get your hopes up too much, but I think we might be witnessing the Liberal Party’s version of the 1955 Labor split.
One thing this does show is that the Liberal party membership is completely out of touch with the mainstream.
I’m frankly gobsmacked that Katherine Deves is still in the mix.
Good to see that the Matildas just sneaked home.
PS: Deves is a good-looking gumby.
I don’t know anything about Yung, but almost knocking over Minns is surely a pretty good effort, so it’s understandable that the party leadership would find him appealing: Unlike Labor the Liberal Party doesn’t make all of its decisions on the basis of factional alliances (or, it might be more accurate to say, it hasn’t done so up to now: the factions seem to be rapidly becoming more powerful).
I don’t know anything about Lambert either, but attacking the Teals head on isn’t the way to defeat them. Liberal candidates need to present themselves as moderate and able to provide their constituents with the same sort of representation that the Teals can give, but from within a party which has a chance of actually forming government.
Of course, such a strategy will be completely undermined if the far right continues to take over the Libs.
It wold appear $1 spent by Australian defence on procurement is $1 too much. Not one decision taken in the last 50 years has been correct. One could be forgiven for thinking the only reason for defence spending is to keep the old soaks employed.
Australia urged to cut back $45bn Hunter-class frigate project as part of ‘bold revamp’
New report argues navy ‘lacks the resources to adequately protect Australia’s vast maritime interests’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/australia-urged-to-cut-back-45bn-hunter-class-frigate-project-as-part-of-bold-revamp
This farce set on endless repeat loop.. witness AUKUS
This sounds like fun…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/olympics-of-centre-right-thought-heavyweights-to-debate-future-of-conservatism-in-the-age-of-trump-20231027-p5efim.html
Religion ruins everything, so the loosening of religion’s grip on societies is something to be celebrated, not lamented.
Honestly, the gathering sounds like a bunch of grumpy old men getting together to reminisce about the ‘good ole days’ and lament those dastardly young people who are ruining everything.
Actually, forget the 1955 Split analogy. If the Libs expell Archer, perhaps the Teals could form themselves into a political party and appoint her as leader, making her into the 21st century reverse image of Joe Lyons.
I’m just being fanciful. Anyway, if the Teals ever were going to form themselves into a party, they’d be instantly hopelessly faction-ridden between the truly displaced Liberals (eg, Spender and Chaney) and the rest, who are a little further to the left.
If the Teals formed a political party they instantly lose the appeal they have to voters of being independent.
Russia is the country with an out-of-control antisemitism problem, making Putin’s aim to ‘denazify’ the country he’s cruelly invading a sick joke:
“In Makhachkala, Russia, participants of an antisemitic rally stormed the airport and tried to enter a plane from Tel Aviv, looking for Jewish people. The airport is closed.
Hundreds of people gathered at the Makhachkala airport before the plane from Tel Aviv arrived. This happened after calls spread on Telegram channels to participate in a gathering near the airport and check cars near the building.
The crowd stopped cars leaving the airport. Passports of the people inside the cars were checked. The instigators were looking for Jewish people. A few hours later, protesters broke into the airport building.
According to the Telegram channel Ostorozhno, Novosti, those present entered every room, shouting antisemitic slogans. At the same time, airport employees tried to hide in their offices – this can be seen in videos published on social media. Later, some people ran out on the runway and tried to get on the plane that arrived from Tel Aviv…
… Meduza writes that the police did not interfere with the crowd in any way. They only said via megaphone to refrain from causing destruction and blocking the road, and also said that they “understand” those present and are ready to “stand up and chant” with them. Only when the participants of the action broke into the runway, crushing the airport security had special forces arrived at the scene, but even then the security forces did not stop the protest.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/29/7426266/
Mob violence against Jews, with police sympathetic to the mob, not the victims. Welcome to neo-Nazism, Russkiy Mir style.
President Zelenskyy on the antisemitic mob violence in Russia:
“President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after a video of antisemites storming the Makhachkala airport that Russian antisemitism and hatred of other nations are systemic and has deep roots.
Zelenskyy called the videos from Russia’s Makhachkala, where an angry crowd broke into an airport in search of Jewish people on a flight from Tel Aviv, “terrible”. “This is not an isolated incident in Makhachkala – it is part of a widespread culture of hatred of other peoples in Russia, promoted by state television, experts and the authorities. Over the past year, the Russian foreign minister has made a number of antisemitic statements. The Russian president has also used antisemitic imagery. Hate speech is commonplace for Russian propagandists on official television. Even the current escalation in the Middle East has led to antisemitic statements by Russian ideologues. Russian antisemitism and hatred of other nations are systemic and deep-rooted. Hatred is what drives aggression and terror. We must work together to stand up to hatred.””
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/29/7426268/
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The case for an interest rate rise is weak and based on Reserve Bank speculation, argues Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/case-for-interest-rate-rise-is-weak-and-based-on-reserve-bank-speculation-20231029-p5efuw.html
Alan Kohler says, “Rate rise or not, back the banks to win big on Melbourne Cup Day.” He is still betting on the outsider called Rates on Hold.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2023/10/30/interest-rate-hike-alan-kohler
And Michael Pascoe hopes the RBA doesn’t make a very bad bet on Melbourne Cup day.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2023/10/28/michael-pascoe-rba-interest-rates-melbourne-cup
Peter Martin writes that worried economists are calling for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and ‘green tariffs’ to get Australia on the path to net zero.
https://theconversation.com/worried-economists-call-for-a-carbon-price-a-tax-on-coal-exports-and-green-tariffs-to-get-australia-on-the-path-to-net-zero-216428
The word “woke” is deployed by conservatives to poison the public discourse and appeal to our worst instincts, writes Paul Begley. He’s not wrong!
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/woke-to-right-wing-attempts-to-enrage-and-misguide,18031
A senior Australian government minister has accused the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, of trying to gain “political advantage” over the “terrible, terrible conflict” in the Middle East. Daniel Hurst writes that Dutton said yesterday that the government had “squibbed” a key vote at the United Nations, after Australia abstained from casting a vote in a UN resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian truce in Gaza. He also said it was “very significant” that the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, had failed to secure a phone call with his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, since the crisis began three weeks ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/29/peter-dutton-accused-of-trying-to-gain-political-advantage-over-israel-hamas-war
Australia should cut back its $45bn Hunter-class frigate project or the navy will end up with too many ships focused on anti-submarine warfare, a new report warns. Daniel Hurst reports that the report published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute calls for a “bold” revamp of the navy’s surface fleet, including reducing the Hunter-class frigate order from nine ships to six.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/australia-urged-to-cut-back-45bn-hunter-class-frigate-project-as-part-of-bold-revamp
“Parliament must listen to workers on IR, not corporate KCs”, urges Cathy McManus who says voting against the Closing Loopholes bill means lining up alongside big companies with ulterior motives for keeping wages low.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/parliament-must-listen-to-workers-on-ir-not-corporate-kcs-20231029-p5efu8
Paul Karp wonders why Labor is defending Alex Hawke’s ‘bizarre’, ‘steering wheel’ visa decision in the High Court.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/why-is-labor-defending-alex-hawkes-bizarre-steering-wheel-visa-decision-in-the-high-court
Jordan Baker and Latika Bourke tell us that while Davos is heavily economic, a star-studded, conservative pow-wow in London beginning today and attended by more than 100 Australians will focus on how the centre-right of politics can redefine its values and reclaim the social agenda. John Howard, John Anderson and former prime ministers Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison will be there. So will former NSW premier Dominic Perrottet, and Catholic Archbishop Anthony Fisher. Federal MPs Amanda Stoker, Angus Taylor, Jacinta Price and Andrew Hastie will also attend.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/olympics-of-centre-right-thought-heavyweights-to-debate-future-of-conservatism-in-the-age-of-trump-20231027-p5efim.html
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare released its latest health expenditure data last week showing the Commonwealth share of government public hospital funding has declined to 41%. This will fuel state anger and make negotiations for a new funding agreement, to take effect in mid-2025, that much harder, explains Stephen Duckett.
https://johnmenadue.com/new-data-shows-the-commonwealth-government-is-not-pulling-its-weight-on-hospital-funding/
With the danger of silicosis hovering over workers, any further delay from federal and state governments in implementing the ban is unconscionable, declares the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/price-is-too-high-for-kitchen-benchtops-and-ban-cannot-be-delayed-20231029-p5efu7.html
The number of ASX-listed zombie companies has exploded in the past six months and is expected to continue to rise as inflation and rising costs put pressure on business cashflows. An analysis by auditors at KPMG has revealed companies that have exhibited its indicators of financial distress for three or more consecutive quarters has risen by 51 per cent, to 127, from 84 in May.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/asxlisted-zombie-companies-in-australia-have-risen-by-51-per-cent-over-the-past-six-months/news-story/951b56219436dd16af37974703f1d046?amp
A last-ditch attempt to secure a free trade agreement with the European Union over better access for Australian meat and protections for continental goods has fallen apart before the “end game” negotiations could start, a move that will set any deal with the bloc back years, reports Rachel Clun.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/end-game-trade-deal-with-eu-collapses-as-both-sides-walk-away-20231029-p5eftz.html
George Brandis reckons it’s time for a long hard look at the importance of the Five Eyes alliance. He says, “Whatever differences occasionally emerge among the Five Eyes nations, it remains a bedrock of Australia’s national security. We benefit immensely from membership of an effective partnership based not just on shared values and common interests, but also on a level of mutual trust unique among the nations.”
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/time-for-a-long-hard-look-at-the-importance-of-the-five-eyes-alliance-20231027-p5efn8.html
Israel has killed more than 7000 Palestinians since the brutal Hamas attacks of October 7 sparked the war on Gaza. Human rights lawyer Greg Barns SC examines Australia’s complicity in war crimes.
https://michaelwest.com.au/israels-bombardment-of-palestinians-is-australia-complicit-in-war-crimes/
Mick Ryan discusses what a ‘crushing victory’ might actually look like for Netanyahu. He concludes by saying “In modern war, victory must therefore include the binary approaches of winning the war as well as winning the peace. Such must be the case with Israel’s Gaza operations. Because an Israeli military “victory” that does not also underpin a long-term, stable and just political solution will mean we are probably back here again in a few years’ time.”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/what-would-a-crushing-victory-actually-look-like-for-netanyahu-20231029-p5efux.html
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
Megan Herbert
Mark David
Jim Pavlidis
Glen Le Lievre
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Funny how governing with tolerance and respect for all is being characterised as ‘hyper-progressivism’. 🙄
Boring old farts! Just want to take us back to the 50s. The 1750s!
Notice how they have a 21st century media strategy though. We wouldn’t have known about the BOFS conference if they hadn’t pushed out the media release which ‘fess picked up.
Dutton wasn’t alone in that. Adam Bandt is also using the conflict for political advantage, appearing on the news last night to criticise the government over the abstention.
Come on C@t. If you aren’t lining the pockets of your vested interest mates, it isn’t governing!!
Oh! How interesting Latika, Daaaahling- a “Centre” Right Loserpalooza you say? And with such Fascinating People too! It must be Simply Wonderful to be such a Crumbmaiden!
I think those commentators suggesting that there will not be and should not be another rate rise on Melbourne Cup day, are right. My brother had his house up for auction last Saturday and had to withdraw it from the market because, even though there were people prepared to buy it, they couldn’t get finance! Another rate rise would only make that situation worse.
‘Fess,
Norty! 😀
If some of the people attending this conference are “centre-right”, then that means that the term applies to all right-wing people everywhere, except for out-and-0ut Nazis.
Abbott has long described himself as “centre-right.” In reality, he was a kind of confused, early manifestation of that strange political amalgam that we see in Donald Trump and other MAGA politicians: socially conservative (or, in the case of Trump, choosing to run with the social conservatives even though he truly isn’t one) but not very fiscally conservative: for the good reason that such politicians derive a great deal of their support from retired people who receive governent benefits and make extensive use of government-funded health and other services.
Politics in the western world is pretty difficult nowadays for people like me who are socially progressive and fiscally conservative. Old-style libertarianism seems to be all but dead.
rhwombat,
As soon as I saw the story was by Latika ‘best friend of Julie ‘ Bourke, I knew it was just agit prop for the New Right, same as the Old Abbott/Howard Right.
Fess: “Dutton wasn’t alone in that. Adam Bandt is also using the conflict for political advantage, appearing on the news last night to criticise the government over the abstention.”
It is interesting that we chose to abstain rather than vote against it. That hasn’t really been properly explained by anyone.
We were never going to be voting for it.
How they voted on the proposed Humanitarian Ceasefire:
https://twitter.com/UN_News_Centre/status/1717992371906839005/photo/2
In summary, 120 for, 14 against, 45 abstention and a few who didn’t vote. Abstainers included most EU countries, Japan and South Korea and the UK. Voting against were the USA, Israel, some Pacific countries, US allies in Latin America and a handful of others (with right-wing Governments?) like Austria, Czechia.
c@t: “As soon as I saw the story was by Latika ‘best friend of Julie ‘ Bourke, I knew it was just agit prop for the New Right, same as the Old Abbott/Howard Right.”
Do you mean Julie Bishop? Is she attending ? I wouldn’t have thought she’d be seen dead at such an event.
meher baba,
You’d probably be interested in the guy who has put his hand up to contest the Presidency for the Democrats who isn’t Joe Biden. His name is Dean Phillips. He hasn’t got a chance this time around but 2028 should be interesting to see which way the Democrat wind blows.
As for Latika: you have to appreciate it’s difficult to be an Australian political correspondent while living in London with your husband. Quite why Nine News continues to indulge this is something of a mystery. I suppose, back in the day, she was one of the more impressive press gallery journos (at least to me: I suspect to for you or many on here).
meher baba,
Julie Bishop isn’t attending, I was just alluding to Latika’s time in the Canberra Press Gallery. She always seemed to be welded to Julie Bishop’s side in social event photos. 😆
meher baba @ #25 Monday, October 30th, 2023 – 6:31 am
The list of countries which abstained is interesting.
c@t: Dean Phillips, like all the candidates you’ve never heard of who run against incumbent presidents in primaries, is a political non-entity who I suspect will sink permanently without trace. If Sanders chose to run again, that would be some sort of a threat. Otherwise I don’t think it matters.
Personally, I’m 150 per cent for Biden running again. I just wish there was some way of replacing Harris with a more reassuring V-P. But there isn’t, and that’s the way it goes sometimes in politics.
I don’t know what Latika Bourke’s political alignment is, but she’s always appeared somewhat of a lightweight to me.
meher baba,
I think I can join the dots. Julie Bishop and Peter Costello were key Liberal Moderates. Peter Costello is chairman of 9Fax. Latika was known to be close to Julie Bishop and probably other Liberal Moderates, so she ends up with a plum job reporting on Australian politics from London.
meher baba,
I don’t think Dean Phillips has a snowball’s chance in hell in 2024 but I think he is trailing his coat for 2028. As is Gavin Newsom, who made a big deal trip to China last week. I think they both know that Kamala Harris will be Primaried. The Republicans sure haven’t gone with the person who was VP gets to challenge the former President. 😀
I liked Latika Bourke when she regularly appeared on ABC TV and in the Sydney Morning Herald before its paywall went up. I haven’t seen or heard anything much of her recently.
I don’t want to be abolished
I suppose an abstention in the Ceasefire vote means something like “we are not against a ceasefire but we can’t support this motion”. The reason would probably be that it doesn’t give due recognition to the terrorist attacks that started the current war and Israel’s need to respond. A vote against means “We are 100% with Israel”.
I vote that we do not abolish shellbell…
I think we ar least need to hear from those proposing shellbell abolition. In the interests of balance.
#weatheronPB
Warm sun glows above.
Cool air brushes past my legs.
Untroubled. Peaceful.
It was ages ago, but I did see an article that Latika Bourke had married in London. Her spouse was a rich lister. But there has been nothing reported anywhere since. So I have no idea what the current situation is.
The independent Teals are the saving grace of our polity.
They have fitted into the system seamlessly. Dare I say a godsend.
I love the irony of using the term “continental goods” (which I haven’t heard for several decades) when describing trade talks with the EU
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/end-game-trade-deal-with-eu-collapses-as-both-sides-walk-away-20231029-p5eftz.html
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. A few stories relating to the rebranding of the feral roght.
Cat on the Liberals I do agree with you. The gathering in London is not “centre right”. It is “far right” as the presence of Abbott, Morrison and Archbishop Fisher shows. There is not a moderate or centrist in sight.
Victoria: “It was ages ago, but I did see an article that Latika Bourke had married in London. Her spouse was a rich lister. But there has been nothing reported anywhere since. So I have no idea what the current situation is.”
I recall reading that he was a run of the mill Canberra public servant who is now working in the private sector in London. If he’s a rich lister, he would presumably have only have achieved this status fairly recently.
Ah, the godbotherers who refuse to report church pedos and simply shuffle the pedos around like cards in a deck are telling us all what would we all do without them. These same people saying without religion there is no morality all supported pedo and pedo protector Pell to the bitter end.
I think I’ll pass on their far-right, theocratic, monarchist throwback vision of the future.
Alexander Downer on ABC RN this morning re AUKUS and submarine building in Adelaide.
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/could-aukus-become-a-white-whale-/103037462
Meher baba
From recollection, Latika’s other half, made his money in the data tech sector.
There was a pro-Palestinian protest march in London last night with an estimated crowd of 100,000. No local reporting? (Photo from twitter).
