The Australian has published aggregated Newspoll breakdowns from polling conducted from August 28 to October 12, encompassing the four polls conducted since Pyxis Polling took over. The overall sample is 6378, having been boosted by 2368 in the pre-referendum poll (which recorded 57% for no and 37% for yes, converting to a bang-on-accurate 60.6-39.4 after exclusion of the uncommitted).
Keeping in mind that the previous set of results, from February 1 to April 3, were conducted by a different agency, the results show Labor’s two-party lead up slightly in New South Wales (from 55-45 to 56-44) and South Australia (from 56-44 to 57-43), but down solidly in Victoria (from 58-42 to 54-46) and Western Australia (57-43 to 53-47). The Coalition is credited with a 52-48 lead in Queensland after a 50-50 result last time, and we are given the rare treat of numbers for Tasmania, where Labor leads 57-43. This suggests swings to Labor of about 4.5% in New South Wales, 2% in Queensland, 3% in South Australia and 2.5% in Tasmania, and to the Coalition of 1% in Victoria and 2% in Western Australia.
The age breakdowns do not repeat a Labor blowout last time among the 18-to-34 cohort, which has progressed over the term’s three Newspoll breakdowns from 65-35 to 69-31 to 64-35. A five-point Coalition gain on the primary vote to 26% means they do not again finish behind the Greens, who are up a point to 25%, with Labor down six to 37%. The results among the older cohorts are essentially unchanged.
Further results suggest the opening of a substantial new gender gap, or of distinctive house effects between the two polling outfits. Where last time Labor was credited with a slightly bigger lead among men (55-45) than women (54-46), its advantage is now out to 56-44 among women and in to 51-49 among men. Income breakdowns now conform with the traditional pattern, with a 57-43 Labor lead among households on annual incomes of up to $50,000 progressively receding to 50-50 among those on $150,000 or more. The previous breakdowns had Labor strongest in the two middle-income cohorts.
Rainman says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 3:29 pm
TPOF
‘You constantly breach the moratorium. This site would be better if you were banned for that reason, …’
Personally, I think this site would be better if you weren’t on it for any reason. I think you are as offensive as the language you use.
And I’m sure you think this site would be better if I wasn’t here.
But in the words of the greatest rock and roll band in the world, the Rolling Stones – You can’t always get what you want.
___________________________________________
Rainman, my problem is breaking the moratorium. I find the stuff Watermelon and some others, including you, quite painful emotionally to read. Which is why I want the moratorium to stand and why I specified that as the reason I’d like to see WM banned, rather than his general tankie, unsubstantiated statements.
As for you accusation about being abusive. Well I find your attacks on me abusive. You don’t have to use bad language to be abusive – bullies often don’t use bad language, but they know how to bully.
Steelydan has named themselves after an oversized steam-powered strap on dildo.
And that’s a hell of a contribution to society.
You never see any of the conservative Labor/LNP federal mp’s throwing light on the outrageous govt support for fossil fuels.
Bless the progressive Teal indy’s.
Re Rex @2:44. Is the Biden administration’s $US1 trillion ($A1.6 trillion) industrial and energy stimulus in any way directly comparable to the Australian Government’s extra $2 billion to double the capacity of the Critical Minerals Facility to support clean energy, manufacturing and defence?
Firstly, to compare Australian numbers to US numbers on a per capita basis, divide the US number by 13, so $1 trillion –> $US 77 billion. Divide by 0.64 to get ~$A 120 billion.
Now is the $US 1 trillion being spent of the same stuff as the $A 2 billion that the PM announced announced today, or is it for a much broader stimulus program?
Mr Buckley is engaging in self-interested pleading, although at least it’s in a good cause.
There’s only so much to go around.
Integrity gaslighting.
TPOF
Any time anyone expresses any sympathy for the Palestinian cause you start calling them baby murdering rapist supporters.
You really can’t see what’s wrong with that or how offensive it is?
And this post isn’t about the Israel/Palestine conflict – it’s about you.
Shoebridge giving it to Defence leadership…
video – https://twitter.com/DavidShoebridge/status/1717037176150696270
TPOF
I note the moratorium and will say no more. However I do not agree with your explanation of the Gaza bombardment.
Gotta keep those beautiful S3 tax cuts…
Rainman says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 3:42 pm
TPOF
Any time anyone expresses any sympathy for the Palestinian cause you start calling them baby murdering rapist supporters.
__________________________________
Rainman. That is an out and out lie. The only people I have said that about are Watermelon and, I think, you. And that was not because of support for the Palestinian people, but because WM at least regurgitates Hamas propaganda and declares Hamas atrocities as “understandable” if not justifiable.
Have the Greens criticized comrade Xi for suddenly banning graphite supplies to the world’s EV industries?
Dog’s Brunch says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 9:28 am
I’ve just taken delivery in recent weeks of my Volcanic Orange MG4 with 64 Kw battery, made by Siac Motors in China. Well made, goes like the clappers (ok not Tesla clappers but I’ve embarrassed a few rev-heads at the lights) and well finished, handles like a dream et al.
After 1200km I’ve paid $8 for electricity (calculated from my solar monitoring app) and I’m looking forward to my first fixed-price service at 40,000 km ($350) and comfortable with my 7 year mechanical/battery warranty.
If China is going to produce cars like that for well under $50k , who’s going to complain ? We’re not doing it so why get your knickers in a knot?
Colour me (a vaguely orange shade ) satisfied!
————————-
Excellent news and thanks for the update. Soon petrol stations will seem to you like quaint (if dangerous) relics of the past as you drive by them for the thousandth time.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 3:46 pm
TPOF
I note the moratorium and will say no more. However I do not agree with your explanation of the Gaza bombardment.
_____________________________________
Fair enough Socrates. But I would like to confirm that I did not call you a baby murdering rapist supporter!
Something for Shoebridge, environmentalist extraordinaire, to sink his teeth into:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1300487.shtml
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-expanding-fishing-fleet-is-depleting-worlds-oceans
https://ourworldindata.org/fish-and-overfishing#will-the-oceans-be-empty-by-2048
I am calling on all bludgers to RESTRAIN themselves and abide by WB’s moratorium.
It’s OK integrity.
Watermelon has left and peace has returned to Bludger.
You can go back to your gaslighting attempts.
AirAlbo?
Fossil cartel?
What about S3 tax cuts?
Global warming?
Rainman:
Correction:
Steelydan accidentally named himself after a giant steam-powered dildo.
That’s the funniest part for me.
“Gaslighting.”
I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
What about it Integrity?
Who needs to be managed out today?
Wong, Marles, Butler, Shorten, Albanese, Dutton… oh, er, um.
What about a spot of triangulation, Integrity?
Compare some other Labor figure to Andrews?
No?
Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:15 pm
…running deflection for Putin again….dismal….
Imagine thinking “Integrity” is an insult.
Studies in rexology….so very predictable.
Wat, I don’t think people calling John Howard “honest” meant it as a compliment.
Some stats on EU citizens’ willingness to change personal behaviours to combat climate change.
The most popular, to create a green space in the dwelling, probably increases CO2 emissions because of emissions embedded in the various manufacturing and supply chains.
Banning the global tourism industry or refusing to engage in tourism was not given as an option.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/25/young-europeans-quit-driving-fewer-children-save-planet-climate-crisis
‘Ugly’ Dutton is an endearment.
Babies are dying in Gaza because electricity is not functioning as it should.
The Gaza death toll is rising by the minute.
This is happening as Israel weighs options about the nature and intent of its ground offensive to smash Hamas.
There are calls from many countries for Israel to impose a ceasefire.
for humanitarian purpose.
This will go on.
Israel will respond to the barbarism of Hamas. They will be supported by America . The hostages held by Hamas is of course a calculated move to turn public opinion against Israel.
The reality is that Hamas will never be eliminated. It will always attract young men to take up arms.
Iran will become involved, in some form.
As this unfolds, there is hardly a word about Putin and Ukraine.
Aren’t we a lucky country?
Too radical for conservative Labor.
The risk of a wider ME war is ever present.
Australia has no business sending ‘contingency’ ADF soldiers and equipment to the ME – short of a parliamentary decision about whether and why so to do.
What contingencies?
Is the Albanese Government setting us up for an inadvertent slide into a general ME war?
Madness, if so.
Iran is already very, very involved ‘in some form’.
Israel is already busy bombing Iranian transhipments of munitions through Syria and convoys of Iranian-supplied and allied fighters concentrating near the Israel border.
Very senior Iranian military persons are traveling into Syria and in and among the Iranian-supported fighters.
Iran funds Heshbollah which is lobbing munitions into Israel, and which has forced several dozen Israeli communities to be evacuated.
Iran also part-funds Hamas.
Iran is making constant threats to ‘pull the trigger’.
Heshbollah is supposed to have something like 20-30 times the amount of missiles that Hamas had.
Heshbollah has been busy retro fitting improved guidance systems to the rockets.
In general, Heshbollah fighters are better armed than Hamas.
I’ve been busy since early this morning and have just come back, but it looks like it’s been a pretty abusive day on PB. Please play nicely people.
BW: “Is the Albanese Government setting us up for an inadvertent slide into a general ME war?
Madness, if so.”
If Hezbollah starts raining missiles on northern Israel, then Israel is going to attack Iran big time, and it would be more or less impossible for the US to do anything other than come along with them for the ride. I don’t think Australia would then have much choice but to aid the US in this. We won’t need to provide much support, but – as with other Middle Eastern wars of the recent past – it will be important for us to demonstrate that we stand alongside the US.
What will be most concerning is not what that will directly mean for Australia in terms of local terrorist attacks and the like, but what Russia’s response is going to be to an attack on Iran. It’s the sort of scenario in which Putin might actually decide to pull out the nukes. It’s going to be a bit scary for the world over the next few weeks.
meher baba @ #881 Wednesday, October 25th, 2023 – 5:06 pm
The US is allied to Israel. Australia is NOT allied to Israel.
If the US is attacked then we are obliged to assist them.
We should not be entering the ME shit fight, IMHO.
RD: “The US is allied to Israel. Australia is NOT allied to Israel.
If the US is attacked then we are obliged to assist them.
We should not be entering the ME shit fight, IMHO.”
Any fight that the US gets into is our fight. We are not even remotely capable of defending ourselves against a serious external threat. We depend on them to protect us and, as part of that deal, we provide support to their military endeavours. It’s only ever a drop in the ocean in terms of what they provide, but the Yanks greatly appreciate the implicit moral support we give them: think George W Bush’s “Man of Steel” comment re John Howard, when we had actually provided no troops and 2/5 of 5/8 of bugger all military support to the 2003 capaign in Iraq.
We’re a nation with a low population and only middling resources and are located a long way from our most important allies in the northern hemisphere. And we would strongly prefer to keep spending less than 2% of our GDP on our military, as opposed to the 3+ per cent the US spends. And beggars can’t be choosers.
@Catprog: “If you say 2015 is too far back are you also against people using Rudd’s carbon tax as evidence against the Greens?”
I didn’t say 2015 is too far back, although it’s a bad sign if you don’t have any more recent examples. I’m pointing out that working to mitigate Coalition shit from Opposition is not at all the same thing as supporting a reduction in renewables. I wouldn’t describe the Greens blocking Rudd’s emissions trading scheme as supporting having no emissions reductions either. Motives are important. I will always think the Greens massively screwed the pooch by blocking Rudd’s scheme because they lost the moment of mass popular support for climate action and instead insisted on an unpopular scheme the Coalition could easily undo when they got back in office, but their error was in the politics of it, not motives.
@meher baba: “but what Russia’s response is going to be to an attack on Iran”
They haven’t pulled out the nukes in response to drone attacks on their own soil yet, so I seriously doubt Putin will go for MAD over fucking Iran who are allies of convenience only.
Anyway, it’s not going to be any kind of wider war. Lots of hooie.
From what I recall, the Pine Gap facility is incredibly important to the USA for a few reasons.
– It is very, very far from the coastline so that foreign navies have no ability to get anywhere close to it.
– It gives the USA the ability to be linked with 3 very important geostationary satellites that allow it to keep an eye on the Eastern Hemisphere.
– It is on the land of a country that has over time become totally subservient to its interests.
The last Prime Minister who started to get uppity about the USA’s influence was Gough Whitlam, and all Prime Ministers after him took note.
Although Paul Keating is more pro-China these days, he presumably maintained the status quo in his time as PM.
Anyway, I reckon Pine Gap is the main reason the USA maintains such an influence with Australia.
I have no time for the Greens, but I think the dumbest piece of rewriting of history is the attack on their approach towards Rudd’s CPRS in 2009-10.
Rudd was so focused on trying to score a political win by getting Turnbull to back the proposal and thereby creating internal chaos within the Coalition that he didn’t bother to enter into meaningful dialogue with the Greens about what was in the proposal. There were aspects of the proposal the Greens didn’t like, so they voted against it. End result: a year or so later, they got a proposal that was much more to their liking, so they voted for it.
The Gillard Government’s emissions reduction scheme might have succeeded if Gillard hadn’t been so stupid as to confess publicly that it was a “carbon tax.”
I reckon that they played the whole thing quite smartly from their point of view. It didn’t work out, but the Greens can’t be blamed for Gillard’s massive gaffe.
Rex Douglas
‘If the US is attacked then we are obliged to assist them.’
I don’t think that’s true. I’m pretty sure ANZUS is a non-binding treaty that really just says the two countries will consult about mutual dangers.
We just fight their wars because our elected representatives are a bunch of kiss arse lap dogs who ignore the will of their constituents.
I remember when my family marched against the Iraq war along with 100,000 other people in Adelaide and many more around the country. John Howard called us a mob.
We have the right to protest and they have the right to ignore us.
Totally agree that if the US got involved in this conflict it would have absolutely nothing to do with us but which of their wars have?
ANZUS is a commitment to consult should one of the parties be attacked.
Nothing more.
Nothing less.
Australia is extremely valuable to the US strategically.
It goes well beyond Pine Gap.
Australia occupies a key pivot location between the Indian and the Pacific Oceans.
etc, etc, etc.
House Republicans on Tuesday shouted down a reporter’s question about their newly chosen speaker-designate, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), being instrumental in their efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. During a press conference, ABC News congressional reporter Rachel Scott began to ask Johnson whether he stands by his role in the scheme when his colleagues laughed at and booed her while she was still speaking. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) could be heard lamenting, “oh God,” as Scott asked her question, while Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) yelled, “Shut up! Shut up!” Johnson himself shook his head and said, “Next question.” Johnson, as noted by The New York Times, was “the most important architect of the Electoral College objections.” In December 2020, the congressman gathered the support of 105 colleagues in an amicus brief backing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s lawsuit seeking to invalidate President-elect Joe Biden’s wins in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Supreme Court declined to hear the case, Texas v. Pennsylvania.
Boerwar @ #889 Wednesday, October 25th, 2023 – 5:12 pm
… Love is the best
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 5:46 pm
Australia is extremely valuable to the US strategically.
It goes well beyond Pine Gap.
Australia occupies a key pivot location between the Indian and the Pacific Oceans.
____________
Every region of the globe is a pivot location between a multiplicity of other locations.
Sorry, but I have to break the moratorium once,and once only, in order to correct two factual inaccuracies .
1. Socrates, I don’t know where you are getting your information from so that you can confidently say that the Al Ahli Hospital strike was a war crime committed by the Israelis. The New York Times had an article a few days ago which referenced independent analysis of the strike and the conclusion they came to was that it wasn’t caused by any Israeli missiles. Also the death toll is entirely questionable because Hamas won’t provide proof or any names of the dead. Also, the Gazan Health Ministry is controlled by Hamas. I’ll fish the article out later for you if you like? I have to go to a meeting now.
2. Watermelon keeps going on about no water in Gaza. Well, there’s a reason for that. The EU granted the Gaza Strip 68 million Euros worth of water pipes so that they could install a water supply for their people. What happened when the pipes got to Gaza? Hamas confiscated them to make rockets out of them to fire at Israel. Funny how Watermelon omits that bit. Not.
And that’s my only moratorium breaking contribution today.
C@t I’m bitterly disappointed that you have chosen to break the moratorium. Especially since you have been so vocal in demanding that others adhere to it.
The outrages committed by the revolted sepoys in India are indeed appalling, hideous, ineffable—such as one is prepared to meet only in wars of insurrection, of nationalities, of races, and above all of religion; in one word, such as respectable England used to applaud when perpetrated by the Vendeans on the “Blues,” by the Spanish guerrillas on the infidel Frenchmen, by Serbians on their German and Hungarian neighbours, by Croats on Viennese rebels, by Cavaignac’s Garde Mobile or Bonaparte’s Decembrists on the sons and daughters of proletarian France. However infamous the conduct of the sepoys, it is only the reflex, in a concentrated form, of England’s own conduct in India, not only during the epoch of the foundation of her Eastern Empire, but even during the last ten years of a long-settled rule. To characterize that rule, it suffices to say that torture formed an organic institution of its financial policy. There is something in human history like retribution; and it is a rule of historical retribution that its instrument be forged not by the offended, but by the offender himself.
Oh, and Rainman, who elected you god’s cop on the blog? You’ve only been commenting here for 2 ups and already you’re throwing your weight and opinions around like you own the joint! Pull your head in. Also, TPOF is a well-respected, long term contributor to this blog. Unlike you.
[citation needed]
People are making statements on what they assume USA wants from Australia in defence. How do they know?
I have recommended this podcast before. US Naval analyst Zach Cooper discusses Australia defence policy with Darren Lim. Note Cooper does NOT suggest Australia should blindly follow USA. We assume too much.
https://australiaintheworld.podbean.com/e/ep-118-a-us-perspective-on-australia-s-defence-policy/
Asha says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 6:35 pm
Also, TPOF is a well-respected, long term contributor to this blog.
[citation needed]
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ABC have launched a Fact Check operation.