The Australian has published aggregated Newspoll breakdowns from polling conducted from August 28 to October 12, encompassing the four polls conducted since Pyxis Polling took over. The overall sample is 6378, having been boosted by 2368 in the pre-referendum poll (which recorded 57% for no and 37% for yes, converting to a bang-on-accurate 60.6-39.4 after exclusion of the uncommitted).
Keeping in mind that the previous set of results, from February 1 to April 3, were conducted by a different agency, the results show Labor’s two-party lead up slightly in New South Wales (from 55-45 to 56-44) and South Australia (from 56-44 to 57-43), but down solidly in Victoria (from 58-42 to 54-46) and Western Australia (57-43 to 53-47). The Coalition is credited with a 52-48 lead in Queensland after a 50-50 result last time, and we are given the rare treat of numbers for Tasmania, where Labor leads 57-43. This suggests swings to Labor of about 4.5% in New South Wales, 2% in Queensland, 3% in South Australia and 2.5% in Tasmania, and to the Coalition of 1% in Victoria and 2% in Western Australia.
The age breakdowns do not repeat a Labor blowout last time among the 18-to-34 cohort, which has progressed over the term’s three Newspoll breakdowns from 65-35 to 69-31 to 64-35. A five-point Coalition gain on the primary vote to 26% means they do not again finish behind the Greens, who are up a point to 25%, with Labor down six to 37%. The results among the older cohorts are essentially unchanged.
Further results suggest the opening of a substantial new gender gap, or of distinctive house effects between the two polling outfits. Where last time Labor was credited with a slightly bigger lead among men (55-45) than women (54-46), its advantage is now out to 56-44 among women and in to 51-49 among men. Income breakdowns now conform with the traditional pattern, with a 57-43 Labor lead among households on annual incomes of up to $50,000 progressively receding to 50-50 among those on $150,000 or more. The previous breakdowns had Labor strongest in the two middle-income cohorts.
Wat Tyler @ #892 Wednesday, October 25th, 2023 – 6:22 pm
Comment of the year. 🙂
Piss-poor response, nath,but I fully expected a lightweight like you to try and make something of my correcting the record with facts, much as I really felt bad about having to break the moratorium to do it.
I note also that you had nothing to say about the facts themselves, nor found it within yourself to thank me for correcting Watermelon’s lies, especially.
Oy vey.
😆
‘Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 6:31 pm
The outrages committed by the revolted sepoys in India are indeed appalling, hideous, ineffable—such as one is prepared to meet only in wars of insurrection, of nationalities, of races, and above all of religion; in one word, such as respectable England used to applaud when perpetrated by the Vendeans on the “Blues,” by the Spanish guerrillas on the infidel Frenchmen, by Serbians on their German and Hungarian neighbours, by Croats on Viennese rebels, by Cavaignac’s Garde Mobile or Bonaparte’s Decembrists on the sons and daughters of proletarian France. However infamous the conduct of the sepoys, it is only the reflex, in a concentrated form, of England’s own conduct in India, not only during the epoch of the foundation of her Eastern Empire, but even during the last ten years of a long-settled rule. To characterize that rule, it suffices to say that torture formed an organic institution of its financial policy. There is something in human history like retribution; and it is a rule of historical retribution that its instrument be forged not by the offended, but by the offender himself.’
——————————————-
Self loathing westerners abound.
This is an interesting view but it does not consider, or give any weight to, alternative analyses.
The atrocities inflicted by various Indian states upon each other were right up there with what the sepoys did to the english. In other words, it was par for the course in India, not something special dreamed up by the english.
The atrocities inflicted by Xinghiz hardly fit this analysis at all.
The Pol Pot atrocities hardly fit this analysis.
Mao’s atrocities towards his own people hardly fit this analysis.
Stalin’s atrocities to his own people hardly fit this analysis.
And so on and so forth.
i think rex is mostly anti labor did not seem to concerned about the projects aproved buy the liberals theforemer government evebn waisted money on a study in to a new coal fired power station in qld they new would never happin
William Bowe says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 6:41 pm
“Also, TPOF is a well-respected, long term contributor to this blog.
Oy vey.”
Is there any consensus on who has been a “well respected long term contributor to this blog”?
@Paul Tu
Probably Lars
PaulTu @ #907 Wednesday, October 25th, 2023 – 6:40 pm
Nostradamus
Me.
I’m a well respected long term contributor to this blog.
That’s the rule. I just made it up.
Staggering developments in the US potus cases. Meadows’ evidence will be crucial.
Honestly I don’t know how Mr Bowe does it! He too is a WRLTCTTB!
Anyway off to a Green’s politics in the pub event. Cheerio.
You didn’t actually correct anything C@t, and I don’t want to be rude but this topic really isn’t something that you know a lot about.
You mention the New York Times on the issue, here they are debunking a key piece of Israeli “evidence”:
The footage has become a widely cited piece of evidence as Israeli and American officials have made the case that an errant Palestinian rocket malfunctioned in the sky, fell to the ground and caused a deadly explosion at Al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City.
But a detailed visual analysis by The New York Times concludes that the video clip — taken from an Al Jazeera television camera livestreaming on the night of Oct. 17 — shows something else. The missile seen in the video is most likely not what caused the explosion at the hospital. It actually detonated in the sky roughly two miles away, The Times found, and is an unrelated aspect of the fighting that unfolded over the Israeli-Gaza border that night.
Not at all surprising considering that the Israeli press conference was so sloppy that they claimed the missile in question had launched from two separate locations. And released an blatantly fake recording of militants speaking on tapped “phone lines”… so they decided to start tapping phone lines after October 7 I guess. Trying to gaslight us into believing that the same people who had threatened to bomb the hospital and ordered it to evacuate, who ordered twenty other hospitals to evacuate under threat of being bombed, and who literally bombed the same hospital a couple of days prior, didn’t actually bomb the hospital.
As for the water… if Gaza has no water because Hamas used pipes for bombs, how does Israel have the ability to turn the water on and off? And to turn it on in the southern part of Gaza and off in the northern part? How are they able to do this to help enforce an evacuation order of 1.4 million people, driving them from north to south, where they’re supposed to go, by thirst, like they’re farm animals?
Perhaps you could read about how the Palestinians are denied water not just in Gaza but in the West Bank?
With apologies for breaking the moratorium. Since the 5000+ already killed are just the appetiser, I have a feeling that in the coming weeks it will only get harder and harder to Basil Fawlty this thing. But I’ll try my best.
BK. A true gentleman.
BK has my vote.
William Bowe says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 6:41 pm
Also, TPOF is a well-respected, long term contributor to this blog.
Oy vey.
____________________________
Not sure what you meant by that William. I’ll also accept that I am a well-disrespected contributor.
But more seriously:
I really would like your moratorium to work. Personally, I find certain posts about the tragedy unfolding quite triggering and extraordinarily unpleasant. I expect there are others as well.
However, one poster – in particular – persists in breaking the moratorium without prior posts to be responded too. I’m quite prepared to admit I respond, but I have never posted on the Middle East situation without responding to a post (usually by Watermelon) preceding it.
It’s your blog. It’s your call. But that is how I see myself.
BK!
Confessions @ #912 Wednesday, October 25th, 2023 – 7:13 pm
In all seriousness, I agree with that. He has been a part of this board for countless years. His morning round-up is always appreciated, and he is always well-mannered and civil, and never adding to any nastiness.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 7:43 pm
Is there any consensus on who has been a “well respected long term contributor to this blog”?
BK. A true gentleman.
_____________________________________
Very happy to agree with that. I would add the late and very much loved and lamented Kay Jay if he were still around.
TPOF @ #917 Wednesday, October 25th, 2023 – 7:18 pm
Kay Jay’s passing was a sad loss for the board. As was Lizzie’s.
“ Any fight that the US gets into is our fight. We are not even remotely capable of defending ourselves against a serious external threat. We depend on them to protect us and, as part of that deal, we provide support to their military endeavours. ”
_____
Sometimes (often) the smallness of your tory forelock tugging mind are truly on display Meher.
This rotten, no good, wrong headed thinking – which I admit most Australians accept – needs to be kicked into touch once and for all times. I actually think it will be, unless some ‘useful idiots’ like our Perfumed Warlord [not to mention everyone in the coalition] goes and gets us all killed in the next round of American military adventurism.
The reason why I think this belief will be shattered asunder is that america actually abandoning us – more or less – is the inevitable outcome of the shifting geopolitical tectonic plates of the 21st century. The quicker ‘we’ – especially the Canberra establishment – grasp this obvious fact, the sinner we can start with ‘Plan B’.
Plan B recognises that by our fears (and that of most Australians I suspect) are actually highly irrational. In truth, we don’t depend on America to defend ‘us’ – we rely upon the vast oceanic distances between the Australian homeland and any likely threat. Being ‘prickly and [largely] unthreatening’ in that context is by far our best defence. Being drawn into American enthusiasms in the northern hemisphere – whether in Europe, the Middle East of North East Asia simply makes us less safe.
Moreover, we can still be a ‘good ally’ (including appropriate and proportionate contributions to the principle of collective defence in places far far far flung from our natural defence wheelhouse) without cravenly volunteering for frontline fuckwittery every time that America clears its throat.
America has over 100 allies of various descriptions. Only us – foolish feckless australia – so willingly gets involved in ALL of Washington’s crap. Everybody else has exercised better judgement at times over the last 75 years. Even Britain, who at least stayed out of Vietnam. … and so should we in the future (but I’m not holding my breath for the next 5 years, because the rot has really set in inside the Canberra bubble at the moment).
Wat @ 7.52
I did remember Lizzie/Zoe and I have the highest respect for her contributions. I singled out KayJay because his posts often attempted to cool the temperature and divert to genuine amusement. I still remember his last post which went something like “Back in hospital. Oh fuck”. Sadly the next we heard was his grandson posting here that he had died of a heart attack. Respect.
Watermelon:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 7:20 pm
[‘With apologies for breaking the moratorium.’]
That comment has a familiar tone. There used to be a poster called McArthur; he then morphed into Enough Already; and, his most recent persona appears to be Paul. There used to be two posters (whose names can’t be revealed & who’ve been banned) who went out of their way to shame sock pockets on this site. I can’t abide by deception, which is a shame as he (Paul) is an intelligent & articulate contributor but who thinks that by repeatedly apologising for contravening the moderator’s instructions, all’s forgiven. I think that anyone whose got too much skin in the game should take stock.
Is there any consensus on who has been a “well respected long term contributor to this blog”?
wayne. All of them.
I can just imagine what people will say after I’m gone…
Par-tay!
[‘Is there any consensus on who has been a “well respected long term contributor to this blog”?’]
The late Frank Calabrese was quite a character, as were his oppos Gusface & the Finnigins. If you backed Labor 100% you were spared but in the event of any sign of wavering, you needed a thick hide.
C@tmomma
I can just imagine what people will say after I’m gone…
I will raise a banzai! in your name.
Another vote for BK. Generous, thoughtful and always courteous.
Yes BK easy choice
Good call Confessions. It has to be BK. Such a decent bloke.
And Modern Liberal for a special mention 🙂
Actually David, I would give you a high mark in that regard too. Always the gentleman, even though you support the ‘other side’. Very timely of you to pop in.
Thanks Bystander but BK’s selfless time and effort every day makes him a standout choice.
Thanks, Shogun. Not that I am needy or anything. 😉
I get how you get that I am no gentlewoman, but more of a Banzai! type. 🙂
You scare the heck out of me C@t. 🙂
You’re a ‘take no prisoners’ kind of gal C@t.
See how nice this place is without Watermelon and his Reactionary Left Wing agenda aggression?
My son the Astrologer says I can’t help it because I have Scorpio in Mars.
Which means I can sting with my words. 😆
Davidwh,
I don’t want to scare you because you haven’t been well!
davidwh says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 9:09 pm
You scare the heck out of me C@t.
__________________________________
The only time C@t scares me is when she posts something without thinking it through properly.
I’m fine C@t. Many years ago when I first started posting here RUOK used to scare me a little but eventually we learned to get on ok.
I’m probably going to cop a bit of flack here soon as I think there are some small cracks showing up in the Federal Labor ranks. Nothing serious enough for me to make a point about at this time.
However given the state of the Coalition any cracks in Labor would have to be massively larger before they became in danger of losing government.
TPOF now how should one take that comment?
Davidwh,
I posted last night that the PM needs to loosen the spokesman reins and get more of his good communicators front and centre, as I don’t think he is Labor’s best spokesman to tell people about all the good things that the government has been doing.
Agree C@t.
Davidwh,
Don’t worry, I get what TPOF is on about. I’ve dropped some clangers in my time here. 😆
Davidwh,
Put simply, Peter Dutton is an unlikeable individual who is prepared to rend the social fabric to gain power.
TPOFsays:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 9:22
The only time C@t scares me is when she posts something without thinking it through properly.
_____________________
Poor old Gladys.
She never recovered after C@t outed her.
Don’t worry, peeps. I’m sure Albo has this all in hand …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-25/un-report-warns-tipping-points-crisis-humanity-must-take-action/103014684
Albo? … Albo? … is anybody there? …
Finding this forum in a better place.
Another vote for BK!
And a reminder of bludgers past. KayJay, lizzie, ctar1 come to mind most readily, but there are many more. e.g. theodore, I hope you are still about.
Yukon John says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 7:15 pm
@Paul Tu
Probably Lars
_____________
An underrated post 🙂
”Put simply, Peter Dutton is an unlikeable individual who is prepared to rend the social fabric to gain power.”
Succinctly put.
Peter Dutton is very dour. None of Abbott’s clownery, none of Turnbull’s urbane polish, none of Morrison’s con artist televangelist. More Adam Suttler.