Newspoll quarterly breakdowns (open thread)

Seven weeks’ aggregation of polling points to Victoria and Western Australia as areas of relative weakness for federal Labor.

The Australian has published aggregated Newspoll breakdowns from polling conducted from August 28 to October 12, encompassing the four polls conducted since Pyxis Polling took over. The overall sample is 6378, having been boosted by 2368 in the pre-referendum poll (which recorded 57% for no and 37% for yes, converting to a bang-on-accurate 60.6-39.4 after exclusion of the uncommitted).

Keeping in mind that the previous set of results, from February 1 to April 3, were conducted by a different agency, the results show Labor’s two-party lead up slightly in New South Wales (from 55-45 to 56-44) and South Australia (from 56-44 to 57-43), but down solidly in Victoria (from 58-42 to 54-46) and Western Australia (57-43 to 53-47). The Coalition is credited with a 52-48 lead in Queensland after a 50-50 result last time, and we are given the rare treat of numbers for Tasmania, where Labor leads 57-43. This suggests swings to Labor of about 4.5% in New South Wales, 2% in Queensland, 3% in South Australia and 2.5% in Tasmania, and to the Coalition of 1% in Victoria and 2% in Western Australia.

The age breakdowns do not repeat a Labor blowout last time among the 18-to-34 cohort, which has progressed over the term’s three Newspoll breakdowns from 65-35 to 69-31 to 64-35. A five-point Coalition gain on the primary vote to 26% means they do not again finish behind the Greens, who are up a point to 25%, with Labor down six to 37%. The results among the older cohorts are essentially unchanged.

Further results suggest the opening of a substantial new gender gap, or of distinctive house effects between the two polling outfits. Where last time Labor was credited with a slightly bigger lead among men (55-45) than women (54-46), its advantage is now out to 56-44 among women and in to 51-49 among men. Income breakdowns now conform with the traditional pattern, with a 57-43 Labor lead among households on annual incomes of up to $50,000 progressively receding to 50-50 among those on $150,000 or more. The previous breakdowns had Labor strongest in the two middle-income cohorts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

967 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns (open thread)”

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  1. BK of course. His commitment to that huge Dawn Patrol everyday is outstanding. I wouldnt know where to start uploading that content onto this site.

  2. “However given the state of the Coalition any cracks in Labor would have to be massively larger before they became in danger of losing government.”

    Yah, the Coalition really have not moved on at all, or in any way i think, from when they last lost?? Strange cattle the Coalition.

    Query for those on the blog. Anyone have any idea when the NACC will be making information known on its deliberations?? Possibly wont be the best of times for members of the former Govt. 🙂

    All i can find is:

  3. Re Imacca @10:23. ”Yah, the Coalition really have not moved on at all, or in any way i think, from when they last lost?? Strange cattle the Coalition.”

    The Coalition aren’t moving on, they’re doubling down. Their plan is to regain office through a combination of:

    * Stealing socially conservative Labor voters in the outer suburbs and regions
    * Culture warring to keep the base together
    * Election sweeteners for the “aspirationals” who vote with their wallets
    * Capitalise on ‘Events’ with the help of media allies, especially Government scandals and stuff-ups (real or beat-up) that might occur.

  4. Republican Jim Jordan, one-time pretender to the House Speakership, and the culture of political violence the GOP has fallen for:

    “From the start, Jordan’s campaign counted on coercion. The Fox News host Sean Hannity made calls to recalcitrant members demanding to know why they were not in lockstep behind Jordan and urged his viewers to send angry messages to change hearts and minds. Steve Bannon, on his War Room podcast, instructed his listeners to target the office of Representative Steve Womack, who had not fallen into line. Gaetz, a guest on Bannon’s program, excitedly announced that one notable holdout, Representative Mike D Rogers, had joined the “Jordan train”.

    “It seems as though Congressman Rogers has been sufficiently encouraged,” boasted Gaetz about the efficacy of the threats. But this whip operation had its limits. When Representative Don Bacon voted for McCarthy, not Jordan, on the second ballot, the Fox News host Brian Kilmeade blurted on-air: “Dumbass!” We insult, you decide.

    After the McHenry debacle, Jordan leaped back in the ring. His Roberto Durán moment had passed. The threats were ratcheted up. Bacon’s wife was inundated with menacing phone calls and texts. “You’re going to be fucking molested!” said one voicemail. More than half a dozen members received death threats – “credible death threats”, said Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks. “One thing I cannot stomach, or support, is a bully.”

    Robocalls incited Republicans in their districts to call members, falsely claiming they were supporting Jeffries. Representative Carlos A Gimenez personally confronted Jordan. “I told him, ‘I don’t really take well to threats. I really don’t,’” he said. “Robocalls – they’re not free. So somebody is actually funding this. And then he told me that he wasn’t behind it and he’s asked people to stop. But if you’ve asked people to stop it, why aren’t they listening to you?”

    Another target, Representative John Rutherford, was skeptical of Jordan’s denial. “I think he’s absolutely responsible for it,” he said.

    Jordan’s reliance on threats disclosed his tried and true methods and their shortcoming. Since he has been in the House, he has not enacted a single piece of legislation. His raw rightwing partisanship has been unashamed, unapologetic and undisguised. McCarthy, who was genuinely shocked at the January 6th assault on the Capitol, reduced himself afterward to a beggar in the palace of Trump. Jordan was in the planning meetings of the coup all along. It was the logical trajectory of his political arc from his earliest days.”

    This shit show has a long way yet before it is fully played out. Pity all those both inside and outside the USA who count of its Government in the meantime. 😡

  5. Quasar says:
    Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 11:41 pm
    This research on US disillusion is sobering:


    Thankyou, you’re too kind.

    This research confirms thoughts I’ve had previously regarding American society that deludes itself that somehow things were always better in most ways decades ago.

    Not unlike Australians (Bronzed Aussies, Anzacs etc), the US has done a wonderful job of (thanks to Disney and FOXX) mythologising itself, forgetting the massacres of minorities, the KKK, eulogising the civil war and ignoring the quickly shrinking middle glass and burgeoning poverty stricken elements of society. Not to mention helplessly watching, or in many cases expediting, the demise of democratic institutions. They are stuck in a paradigm whereby the seek a return to that which never really existed. Their greatest strength is also their greatest failing, their self-confidence.

    Having taken their eyes off the prize and their hands off the tiller, they’ve handed control to whomever may be motivated, wrongly believing they are indestructible, least of all from within. There are real lessons here for Australians as we so often follow the US lead, albeit typically a decade later. Our greatest enemy too comes from within. We require a far better educated and critical thinking public, prepared to question beyond the lazy talking-heads whose only purpose is to misinform.

    Rant over for tonight.

  6. The MAGA faction has worn down the so-called Republican “Normals” and election-denier and god-botherer Mike Johnson appears to have been elected Speaker.

    I assume he’s made some promises re funding for Israel and the Ukraine. But it’s still a bad development IMO.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    A larger-than-expected rise in prices on everything from petrol to property rates could force the Reserve Bank to lift official interest rates next month to a 12-year high, but Jim Chalmers maintains inflation is on track to return to normal levels as government programs ease key pressure points. Shane Wright and Rachel Clun report that inflation – both headline and underlying – increased in the September quarter by 1.2 per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported. At the annual rate, inflation eased from 6 per cent to 5.4 per cent.
    The Albanese government knows if rates move again, as now seems inevitable, it’s going to get whacked, regardless of the cause, says Phil Coorey.
    Petrol is holding up inflation, explains John Hawkins who lays out seven graphs that show what’s happening to prices and what it will mean for interest rates.
    Despite a dysfunctional US Congress, PM Anthony Albanese is making the best of his America trip by announcing defence investments, a deal with tech giant Microsoft, and throwing the local minerals industry some bones too. Kim Wingerei reports.
    Nick McKenzie tells us that a transnational crime syndicate is accused of laundering $228 million in dirty funds and tainted cryptocurrency via a money moving business spruiked by a former Howard government minister Gary Hardgrave, and allegedly secretly controlled by Chinese gangsters. He says that yesterday’s arrests will also ramp up pressure on the federal government to introduce long-stalled “Tranche 2” laws. The laws would force accountants, real estate agents and lawyers to face the same obligations as bankers and casinos to report suspected money laundering.
    A former Victorian cabinet minister will spend at least a year behind bars for falsely claiming more than $170,000 in administrative expenses that he used to fuel his gambling addiction. Annika Smethurst reports that Russell Northe, 57, who served as Energy and Resources Minister in the Napthine government, retired from politics last November after he was charged with dozens of offences by Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog. He has since been working at his local Coles supermarket earning $700 a week.
    Anthony Albanese will back the “moral clarity” of United States President Joe Biden in his response to the conflict in the Middle East, in an address at the White House that amplifies Australian support at a time of American concern about the rise of China. David Crowe and Farrah Tomazin report that Albanese will cite words spoken by Biden’s late soldier son to highlight the strength of the alliance between the two countries, two weeks before he visits Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
    Matt O’Sullivan and Alexandra Smith write that, days before a wide-ranging review into Metro West is due to be released, new plans for Sydney’s $25 billion Metro West rail line will go before a powerful NSW cabinet subcommittee tomorrow, in the clearest signal that the government is seriously considering expanding the size of the city’s largest transport project.
    Aisha Dow and Henrietta Cook report that, with more than 72,000 Victorians languish on elective surgery waitlists, Melburnians could travel to regional hospitals for their long-awaited operations under a plan to improve the state’s overwhelmed surgery wait lists. Surgeons would also run “HIT” clinics to power through a backlog of similar operations, such as hip replacements, while other patients are diverted to alternative treatments such as occupational therapists, physiotherapists and hydrotherapists.
    According to the AFR, some of Qantas’ largest investors, including the Future Fund, are set to vote against the re-election of Todd Sampson to the airline’s board, raising the prospect that the advertising executive could be forced into an abrupt exit.
    As few as one in six apartment projects would qualify for affordable housing bonuses under a draft version of the Minns government’s policy, developers say, because local council regulations will be allowed to scuttle housing projects that don’t comply Michael Koziol and Max Maddison say that draft legislation and guidelines – obtained by the Herald – reveal the government’s proposed height and floor space bonus for developments that contain affordable housing will be constrained by a web of rules about how and where the bonuses can be claimed.
    Michael Pascoe gives Richard Marles quite a serve over the way he is talking (and not talking) about China. He describes Marles as “Dutton with hair”.
    In its attempt to repair the immigration system chaos caused by the Coalition, the Albanese Government has instead created a new set of challenges to overcome, writes Abul Rizvi who says the government has found itself between a rock and a hard place on the permanent migration program.,18017
    “Low carb” and “low sugar” labelling on alcoholic drinks should be scrapped, according to peak health organisations, who say the claims should never have been allowed as they mislead consumers into thinking alcohol products are “healthier”, writes Melissa Davey.
    A tobacco store in Melbourne’s north has been set ablaze for a second time as police continue to probe a spate of targeted arson attacks linked to organised crime wars over the illicit tobacco trade, reports Lachlan Abbott.
    Centrelink issued 2.8m busy messages to callers in only two months, amid a significant blowout to wait times that has prompted members of the federal crossbench to raise the alarm with the Albanese government. Cait Kelly writes that, despite trends showing the agency is generally fielding fewer calls, data tabled by Services Australia in Senate estimates on Wednesday revealed over July and August only 23% of calls to Centrelink were answered, compared with 35% over the 2022-23 financial year.
    Angus Thompson writes that NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey has compared the current campaign by engineered stone manufacturers to the tactics used before the nationwide prohibition of asbestos.
    Childcare fees are rising faster than inflation, staff shortages are stretching centres to capacity, and a third of Australians live in a childcare “desert” where children outnumber available places by a ratio of at least three to one. According to experts, the sector’s business model is to blame.
    The High Court striking down Victoria’s electric vehicle levy shows policies around the technology are a dog’s breakfast, reports Duncan Graham.,18018
    The world is heading towards a series of environmental “tipping points” that could cause irreversible damage to water supplies and other life-sustaining systems, the research arm of the United Nations has warned. Climate change and the overuse of resources have put the world on the brink of six interconnected tipping points that “could trigger abrupt changes in our life-sustaining systems and shake the foundation of societies,” the UN University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security said yesterday.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes about China’s slowdown and the looming glut of fossil fuels.
    Middle East analyst Rodger Shanahan opines that Hezbollah has the answer as to whether the Gaza war spread through the region.
    The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East is a reminder that after decades of aggression, peace in the region is difficult to achieve, writes Dr Lee Duffield.,18016
    Joe Biden is handling global crises well, but there is no guarantee he will be the Democratic nominee for the next presidency, writes Bruce Wolpe.
    After 22 days of paralysis, four nominees and multiple backroom brawls, Congress finally has a new House Speaker, electing a Donald Trump ally who backed the attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Three weeks after Kevin McCarthy was ousted from the job, Republicans put aside their differences for long enough to appoint Louisiana lawyer Mike Johnson as his replacement, reports Farrah Tomazin.

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Jon Kudelka

    Dionne Gain

    A vintage Cathy Wilcox

    Mark Knight


    From the US

  8. EV Sales for September

    MG4 sales yet to be ramped up. Will be intrtesting to see how they go – as well as the Dolphin in due course.

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