Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.
The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.
The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.
The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.
“Hopefully, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is serious about evacuating as many Gazan civilians as possible into Egypt, and helping look after them properly there until the inevitable IDF ground offensive is over.”
________
This may be the plan all along:
IDF goes in as hard as fuck and every Palestinian not slaughtered in the initial onslaught is ‘escorted to safety’ into desert camps … and the IDF simply stays in Gaza and ultimately hands it over to the Israeli settler movement.
Israel made some effort to stay within international law by warning civilians to leave but there wasn’t much time between warning and attacking.
When a brutal occupying power crams 2.1 million people into 365 square kilometres – the most densely populated area on the planet – of course it’s going to be difficult to distinguish civilians from combatants. That is 100 percent the fault of the occupier. There is no moral excuse for Hamas’s use of terrorism but the Israeli Government is the aggressor in this conflict, not the Palestinians. It is the Israeli Government that has the power to end the conflict at any time by ending the occupation and by returning the land that it stole (or by providing very generous compensation).
nath,
Pro Tip: Aping the Lars Team ™ provides no profit.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:31 pm
“When an army embeds itself in a civilian population and in civilian homes, shops and offices, how can that army be fought without engaging in war crimes?
I can’t see it.”
It is difficult.
But if it was a conflict against the IRA or the Mafia does that legitimise the killing of thousands of innocent civilians in Ireland or Italy?
Mr Squiggle
Boerwar, I might be wrong on this point, but I have always understood that the US does not recognise dual citizenship
The US does not explicitly recognise dual citizenship. However – the US will not compel those people who become US citizens to give up their previous citizenships. Nor, if a US-born citizen becomes a citizen of another country, will the US compel them to give up their US citizenship. The implication is that the US allows its citizens to hold other citizenships.
Andy, I think that would be the wish of the Israel right wing coalition, whether the US supports it or whether it is feasible is a different question.
Fairman didnt think it was going to happen but the Israeli govt would be crazy enough to try it if given the green light by the US.
Lol. I suggest you look into the composition of Israeli’s far-right coalition cabinet. They are genocidal. I’m sure they are all very happy to see as many find safety in Egypt as possible, because their removal will be a permanent ethnic cleansing; they will never be coming back.
Socrates @ #766 Wednesday, October 11th, 2023 – 6:04 pm
The Phillipines, post Duterte, has become a very important partner in the region.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:38 pm
When a brutal occupying power crams 2.1 million people into 365 square kilometres – the most densely populated area on the planet – of course it’s going to be difficult to distinguish civilians from combatants. That is 100 percent the fault of the occupier. There is no moral excuse for Hamas’s use of terrorism but the Israeli Government is the aggressor in this conflict, not the Palestinians. It is the Israeli Government that has the power to end the conflict at any time by ending the occupation and by returning the land that it stole (or by providing very generous compensation).’
————————————————
Uh huh. With the last step being herding the jews into the sea?
As Boer would argue:
“If only Hamas invested in solar and desalination!”
_______
From the smh feed:
“Gaza’s sole power plant running out of fuel
The Gaza Strip’s sole power plant and only current provider of electricity will run out of fuel in 10 to 12 hours, Palestinian Energy Authority Chairman Thafer Melhem told Voice of Palestine radio on Wednesday, Reuters reported.
Israel cut off its own electricity supply to Gaza on Monday as part of what it called a “total siege” in response to a mass-infiltration by Palestinian gunmen.
Palestinians evacuate their homes after Israeli airstrikes this week.
Palestinians evacuate their homes after Israeli airstrikes this week.CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES
The region is regularly subjecting to rolling blackouts due to electricity shortages, but most people do not have access to private generators.
The Gaza strip area is home to about 2.3 million people, most of whom rely to some degree on humanitarian aid.
Israel has stopped entry of food, fuel and medicine into Gaza, and the sole remaining access from Egypt was shut down Tuesday after airstrikes hit near the border crossing, AP reported.
The United Nation’s World Health Organization said that supplies it had pre-positioned for seven hospitals in Gaza have already run out amid the flood of wounded.
The head of the medical aid group Doctors Without Borders said surgical equipment, antibiotics, fuel and other supplies were running out at two hospitals it runs in Gaza.”
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:34 pm
When is collective punishment collective punishment?
Wars have always involved trying to cut the enemy off from water, food, resupply of munitions and energy.
… WW1 … WW2 …
—————-
BW, both those wars were pre-Rome Convention. Thankfully, we live under those rules now – at least as an aspiration.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:46 pm
As Boer would argue:
“If only Hamas invested in solar and desalination!”
============================
Had Hamas spent its money on a desal plant instead of on weapons for endlessly losing wars then the current situation would not apply. There would be plenty of drinking water. A quarter of a million people would not be out of their homes. The hospitals would not have run out of stockpiled medicines.
But then, had Hamas spent its money on a desal plant there would be no Hamas.
It would already have been destroyed by the next lot of islamist extremists.
Watermelonsays:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:44 pm
Lol. I suggest you look into the composition of Israeli’s far-right coalition cabinet. They are genocidal. I’m sure they are all very happy to see as many find safety in Egypt as possible, because their removal will be a permanent ethnic cleansing; they will never be coming back.
———————–
I agree the Israeli Government can’t be trusted to deal honestly or humanely with the Palestinian civilians of Gaza. But nor can Hamas be trusted not to engage in perpetual indiscriminate military violence against Israeli civilians. A way must be found to permanently disarm Hamas, while also sparing Palestinian civilians from harm. And ensuring Palestinian civilians are repatriated ASAP and their lives and livelihoods built up as well as can be managed.
“Rome Convention for the Protection of Performers, Producers of Phonograms and Broadcasting Organisations”.
What does that have to with Hamas terrorists?
Shogun: “The US does not explicitly recognise dual citizenship. However – the US will not compel those people who become US citizens to give up their previous citizenships. Nor, if a US-born citizen becomes a citizen of another country, will the US compel them to give up their US citizenship. The implication is that the US allows its citizens to hold other citizenships.”
As long as they keep paying their US taxes that is. Even non-resident US citizens need to pay US tax, which is different from many countries.
The Hamas atrocities on the weekend are totally reprehensible.
However, does it excuse these acts of (apparent) IDF vengeance.
#1 “The entire neighborhood of al-Karama has been levelled to the ground. Eight 12-storey towers were bombed and destroyed. People were targeted while inside their homes.
Residents of the neighbourhood have been appealing to the civil defence and Red Cross for assistance. No help has reached them.”
#2 The Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor has shared a “doctored” video showing a “deeply disturbing potential war crime”.
“The IDF posted a doctored video alleging eliminating combatants. But their own footage shows said individuals unarmed, raising their hands up & kneeling down to surrender before IDF soldiers execute them from the back,” the monitor said on X.
“The crime scene has then been doctored & assault rifles appear to have been added to the bodies. These individuals may have been civilians who crossed the fence after its collapse. Their killing as they surrendered is an act of extrajudicial execution that constitutes a war crime.”
The reports comes from Al-Jazeera – perhaps not an impartial source, but it comes after many years of bully boy tactics by Israel.
There is no way that Israel would permit the importation of all the infrastructure required to make Gaza self sufficient in either water or energy.
I suspect that Boer knows this, but his little green light to a touch of IDF war crimes does tend to indicate that he’s wandered off the reservation somewhat mad has gone completely troppo.
Pope Francis has the moral position here exactly right:
“Pope Francis has called for the release of all hostages held by Hamas.
He said he was very worried by the “total siege” imposed by Israel on Gaza.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/11/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-death-toll-us-egypt-passage-gaza
PaulTusays:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 7:00 pm
The Hamas atrocities on the weekend are totally reprehensible.
However, does it excuse these acts of (apparent) IDF vengeance.
—————
No.
“The Gaza strip area is home to about 2.3 million people, most of whom rely to some degree on humanitarian aid. Israel has stopped entry of food, fuel and medicine into Gaza, and the sole remaining access from Egypt was shut down Tuesday after airstrikes hit near the border crossing, AP reported.”
Sounds like Palestinians going into Israel to behead Israeli babies might have been the wrong strategic move.
If Israel seriously keeps up the total blockade there is going to be chaos within weeks, if not days. I wonder if the Palestinians will so whole heartedly support Hamas when they’ve had no water for 2 days.
Paul
“ BW, both those wars were pre-Rome Convention. Thankfully, we live under those rules now – at least as an aspiration.”
Serious question (I don’t know the Rome Convention rules):
If a combatant in a conflict clearly acts in a manner breaking the rules of the Rome Convention (e.g. murders unarmed civilians) is the opposing force still obliged to observe the same rules?
I don’t agree with everything Yannis Varafoukis says about Hamas and Israel – but he outlines some truths, and is incredibly more articulate that some commenters here.
The first 17 minutes of this debate from DIEM25 is worth viewing, to appreciate a third way.
https://www.youtube.com/live/i-ZXE24uiW8?si=pcOY29D_NVtrUVYA
If Israel seriously keeps up the total blockade there is going to be chaos within weeks, if not days. I wonder if the Palestinians will so whole heartedly support Hamas when they’ve had no water for 2 days.
______________________________________________-
I can’t work out whether Hamas was exercising the will of Palestinian civilians in Gaza (in which case they deserve what they get) or whether Hamas was doing what it wanted and did not give a shit about the welfare of Gazan Palestinians, in which case they are victims of Hamas as well as the Israeli response.
Perhaps Watermelon or Rainman can clarify.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:36 pm
This may be the plan all along:
IDF goes in as hard as fuck and every Palestinian not slaughtered in the initial onslaught is ‘escorted to safety’ into desert camps … and the IDF simply stays in Gaza and ultimately hands it over to the Israeli settler movement.
—————————
‘Realist me’ agrees that this more cynical plan is probably what they are actually cooking up. But ‘optimistic me’ thinks that a sincere version of this plan is the only way out for both Israeli and Palestinian civilians caught in this bloody conflict between their two governments.
A way must be found to permanently disarm Hamas, while also sparing Palestinian civilians from harm.
Right because after taking all their land and enclosing them in a prison camp where they’ll be shot dead if they walk unarmed too close to the perimeter, the next logical step is to ensure that they are permanently disarmed. Then maybe they can have some fentanyl to kill themselves with, as a treat.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 7:08 pm
Paul
“ BW, both those wars were pre-Rome Convention. Thankfully, we live under those rules now – at least as an aspiration.”
Serious question (I don’t know the Rome Convention rules):
If a combatant in a conflict clearly acts in a manner breaking the rules of the Rome Convention (e.g. murders unarmed civilians) is the opposing force still obliged to observe the same rules?
——————————-
By my understanding, yes. The point of this Convention isn’t to ensure a ‘fair fight’ between opposing combatants, but to restrain both sets of combatants from inflicting atrocities upon noncombatants of both sides.
My understanding is that if one side is deliberately or disproportionately killing civilians that doesn’t permit the other side to do the same. The only exception to the rules against war crimes is if a civilian structure, such as a school or a hospital, is being used as a military base. In that circumstance it is legitimate to treat the civilian structure as a military target.
“the next logical step is to ensure that they are permanently disarmed”
Don’t fire 5000 rockets at your neighbours, don’t massacre hundreds of civilians at a concert, and don’t go into towns kidnapping, murdering, raping, killing people hiding in bomb shelters and beheading babies and as a people you won’t have to be disarmed.
Thanks Paul.
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR CASUALTIES
Israel: 1,200 dead, 3,418 injured
Gaza: 950 dead, 5,000 injured and around 1500 Hamas fighters killed in Israeli territory
West Bank: 21 dead, 130 injured
Lebanon: 5 dead
“But if it was a conflict against the IRA or the Mafia does that legitimise the killing of thousands of innocent civilians in Ireland or Italy?”
___________________________________________
A truly stupid and irrelevant analogy – especially the latter.
TPOF
I can’t work out whether Hamas was exercising the will of Palestinian civilians in Gaza (in which case they deserve what they get) or whether Hamas was doing what it wanted and did not give a shit about the welfare of Gazan Palestinians, in which case they are victims of Hamas as well as the Israeli response.
I have wondered the same thing. Does Hamas represent the will of the people in Gaza? I doubt there is reliable polling data on that. 🙁
Hamas murdered & abducted more civilians in one day than civilians killed in the entire 30 years of the Troubles. The scale of the Palestinian terror attack is massively different.
The only interesting/positive takeaway from the resolve poll is that 52% believe there should be more referenda held, 34% unsure and only 14% saying fewer
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 7:00 pm
There is no way that Israel would permit the importation of all the infrastructure required to make Gaza self sufficient in either water or energy.
I suspect that Boer knows this, but his little green light to a touch of IDF war crimes does tend to indicate that he’s wandered off the reservation somewhat mad has gone completely troppo.’
——————————————-
Bloody hell. Talk about jumping the shark.
I can’t see how you can fight any war without committing war crimes especially where one side or the other decides to commit war crimes.
As for the desal plant, your 100% certainty about an unknown is irrelevant.
Hamas was never going to divert resources from weapons into a desal plant. That is not what Hamas exists to do.
Those complaining about the destruction of civilian housing towers in Gaza as a clear example of Israel committing war crimes will, of course, first have checked to see which buildings were/are being used to house Hamas fighters, for training in urban warfare, to house observation posts, to house munitions, to form part of killing boxes, and to launch missiles into Israel.
Conversely, when Israel targetted those towers for demolition it would first have warned any civilians to flee and it would first have ascertained that the towers were used as barracks for Hamas fighters, munitions stores, observation posts, as well as firing platforms for its missiles.
Hamas didn’t commit “war crimes”, they committed pure cold blooded murder.
I’m sure the rest of the Greens will try to boot him out for calling them war crimes though, and not “legitimate resistance”.
William.
What did I do wrong this time?
People are saying a lot of provocative things so I’m not sure why quoting the Old Testament makes me any worse.
Keep in mind that the average age of the population in Gaza is eighteen.
Now let’s turn your vile logic on its head:
Israel votes for its government in regular democratic elections, so does this mean that their extremist government of rightwing psychopaths is exercising the will of Israeli civilians – “in which case they deserve what they get”?
Wow that suddenly sounds really evil doesn’t it! Sometimes you need to replace the word “Palestinian” with “Israeli” to see how racist what you’re saying actually is.
Watermelon
Your response makes no sense at all.
Rainman, I’m a pretty busy person, especially right now, and I’m not going to commit to providing you personally with detailed reasoning every time you compel me to chop one of your comments — in this case by making creepy anti-Semitic allusions to the Old Testament. Learn to take hints and exercise sufficient common sense to not be a constant demand upon my patience and you’ll be able to keep posting here. On current form, it’s not looking good.
“exercising the will of Israeli civilians”
To defend against an ongoing terror attack & kidnapping spree.
FMD.
Israel disengaged from Gaza as a consequence of the Second Interfada (2000-05) and instead adopted a policy of the Palestinian ‘external squeeze’ whereby goods, consumables and services were severely restricted into the strip. Hamas came to power as a consequence of THAT.
This is a matter of historical record. Not opinions. Ascertainable facts. Therefore from the day they assumed office in 2006 the projects that you accuse Hamas of ignoring was never on the table to start with.
The Israelis murder civilians by the thousands in the course of a permanent, colonial, racist occupation. And you’re blaming the Palestinians for making their own ethnic cleansing too messy.
Watermelon
The Israelis murder civilians by the thousands in the course of a permanent, colonial, racist occupation. And you’re blaming the Palestinians for making their own ethnic cleansing too messy.
_________________________________
Are these the same Palestinians who now claim they are innocent victims of Israeli retaliation?
TPOF
That’s probably because your racism is so deeply ingrained that when you see the logic you apply to the Palestinians getting applied to the Israelis, you simply can’t heave your little brain over it.
Watermelonsays:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 7:52 pm
Don’t fire 5000 rockets at your neighbours, don’t massacre hundreds of civilians at a concert, and don’t go into towns kidnapping, murdering, raping, killing people hiding in bomb shelters and beheading babies and as a people you won’t have to be disarmed.
The Israelis murder civilians by the thousands in the course of a permanent, colonial, racist occupation. And you’re blaming the Palestinians for making their own ethnic cleansing too messy.
—————————–
Israel occupies the west bank not Gaza and Gaza is only locked down because its leaders refuse to accept Israel’s right to exist.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 7:50 pm
FMD.
Israel disengaged from Gaza as a consequence of the Second Interfada (2000-05) and instead adopted a policy of the Palestinian ‘external squeeze’ whereby goods, consumables and services were severely restricted into the strip. Hamas came to power as a consequence of THAT.
This is a matter of historical record. Not opinions. Ascertainable facts. Therefore from the day they assumed office in 2006 the projects that you accuse Hamas of ignoring was never on the table to start with.
————————————-
Hamas has never shown any priority higher than fighting.