Live Commentary
4:56pm Tuesday While the Socialists may be able to cobble together a government in the lower house, the PP won 120 of the 208 elected senators, to 72 for the Socialists. FPTP is used for the Senate, and all mainland provinces get four senators regardless of population. Cases of disagreement between the chambers can be resolved if an absolute majority of the lower house is in favour, but that requires 176 votes.
7:51am Monday With 98% counted in Sunday’s Spanish election, the conservative People’s Party has 32.9%, the governing centre-left Socialists 31.8%, the far-right Vox 12.4% and the left-wing Sumar 12.3%. The lead for PP and Vox over the Socialists and Sumar is just 1.2%, far less than expected in pre-election polls.
Seat numbers in the lower house are 136 PP, 122 Socialists, 33 Vox and 31 Sumar. So PP and Vox add to 169 of the 350 seats, not enough for the 176 required for a majority. The Socialists and Sumar add to 153 seats. Regionalists, who are mostly left-wing, will hold the balance of power. There could be a new election needed in Spain.
2:18pm So the overall result is the Tories lose two of the three by-elections by big margins, but hold Uxbridge narrowly. The Tories are about 20 points behind Labour in UK national polls, so this should be expected. The next UK general election is not due until late 2024. I will use this post to comment on the Spanish results on Monday morning.
2:15pm Labour GAINS Selby from the Tories with a massive swing. It’s the biggest vote majority Labour has overturned at a by-election. The Tories won it by over 20,000 votes in 2019.
12:33pm I will be going out for lunch soon.
11:57am So now we’re just waiting for the Selby declaration.
11:55am Lib Dems GAIN Somerton from Tories with HUGE swing and a big new majority.
11:44am Tories HOLD Uxbridge.
11:34am Tories may have won Uxbridge by about 400 votes.
11:15am Friday A recount will be held in Uxbridge. I don’t have information yet as to which side called for it. Labour’s London mayor Sadiq Khan may be unpopular.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Original post on Thursday July 20
Polls close at 7am Friday AEST for the three UK by-elections in Uxbridge, Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome – all three by-elections are for Conservative-held seats. It’s likely to take at least a few hours to get results of these by-elections. I will be at gym Friday morning, but should get home by 11am, in time for the results.
Uxbridge was former PM Boris Johnson’s seat, and he won it at the December 2019 election by a 52.6-37.6 margin over Labour with 6.3% for the Liberal Democrats. At that election, the Conservatives won Somerton by 55.8-26.2 over the Lib Dems with 12.9% Labour and 5.1% Greens. They won Selby by 60.3-24.6 over Labour with 8.6% Lib Dems.
These large seat wins were from overall vote shares at the 2019 election of 43.6% Conservative, 32.1% Labour and 11.6% Lib Dems. In national polls, Labour currently has about a 20-point lead over the Conservatives, in contrast to the 11.5-point Conservative win in 2019. Seat polls give Labour an eight-point lead in Uxbridge and a 12-point lead in Selby. The Lib Dems had huge swings in their favour at by-elections earlier this term.
In the lead-up to these by-elections, there has been an internal Labour fight over leader Keir Starmer’s announcement that he would keep the Conservatives’ “two-child benefit limit”. This limits welfare payments to the first two children in a family. It may be a mistake for Starmer to have this fight just before the by-elections.
Right likely to win in Spain
Polls for Sunday’s Spanish election close at 4am Monday AEST. The Congress of Deputies has 350 members elected by proportional representation by region, with a 3% threshold per region. Seats per region are allocated on a population basis. In the Senate, 208 of the 266 seats are elected by First Past the Post (FPTP), with four seats for most regions.
Polling indicates the conservative People’s Party and far-right Vox are leading the centre-left Socialists and left-wing Sumar by single digit margins. Some of the 350 seats in the Congress will go to regionalists, so it could be difficult for the right-wing parties to win the 176 combined seats required for an outright majority. The current heatwave in Spain and in southern Europe has not affected the polling.
Thai and Alberta, Canada elections
At the May 14 Thai election, the left-wing Move Forward won 151 of the 500 lower house seats. They formed a coalition with Pheu Thai (141 seats) and other parties to get 313 votes. But the PM is elected by a combined vote of both parliamentary chambers, and the 250 senators are military appointees. An absolute majority (375 votes) was required. In the July 13 first round, Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat won 324 votes with 182 opposed and 243 abstentions or absentees. As Pita was short of 375, he did not become PM. In a second vote Wednesday, 395 were opposed to Pita and 312 in favour.
At the May 29 election for the Canadian province of Alberta, the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) won 49 of Alberta’s 87 seats, to 38 for the left-wing New Democrats (NDP). In 2015, the NDP won a shock victory in Canada’s most right-wing province owing to a split in the conservative vote and the use of FPTP. At this election, vote shares were 52.6-44.1 to the UCP. The NDP swept all seats in Edmonton and won many in Calgary. Alberta is a case where the left trend in cities is making it easier for the left to win.
The Tories are going to receive a well deserved kicking tonight and likely lose all 3 seats. It’s going to be a case of how bad the kicking is going to be not whether it will happen.
Even cabinet ministers are privately admitting that the seats have gone and that hanging onto one would be a “win”.
There should have been a 4th by-election today but Nadine Dorries has still to actually resign* despite says she would “with immediate effect” over a month ago.
* Legally MPs can’t resign by just saying it or writing to the Speaker. They have to apply and be appointed to be Steward of either the Manor of Northstead or the Chiltern Hundreds
Far from being a mistake, Keir Starmer’s latest policy flipflop on child benefit policy was no doubt extremely calculating.
Why not grab the headlines showing yourself a ‘more conservative’ Labour leader (even though he’s not really, except as compared to the extremes aka Jeremy Corbyn) if you are getting a twinge of nerves about winning 2 longstanding Conservative-held seats on the by-elections later in the week?
The criticism from his left was no doubt exactly as expected and hoped for. He can flipflop towards the left wing on something different to appease them, once these by-elections are in the bag (which they are, quite honestly).
I’m curious as to what Nadine Dorries is cooking up in Mid Beds. Waiting until a new Boris-friendly party is set up then defecting and resigning to fight the by-election under the new colours, perhaps?
The Conservatives are deservedly toast at the next election anyway, but they really will be burnt toast if that possibility became a reality – would be like a Reform Party on steroids (possibly merged with the actual Reform Party to mop up a bit on the right).
And, bluntly, could do better than the old Conservative party at least in ‘red wall’ / Northern seats (except Scotland) though would be behind the old Conservatives in blue wall seats generally.
After all, many Conservative voters at the last election were voting for the Boris brand and feel deeply betrayed by what his party (and the establishment at large) have done to him with great indignation – so if marketed well, could pick up a good platform of seats for future success (and future Boris Premiership?).
I predict Lib Dems will win Somerton and Frome by about 30%, and hold the seat at the next GE.
What happened to Ray(UK)?
The Alberta provincial election in Canada was pretty interesting, especially in that it’s become an almost pure 2-party contest.
I just don’t understand why Canada doesn’t drop their adherence to first-past-the-post in their elections. Clearly in their history it has benefited the right wing of their politics, while the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens bicker on the left, the Conservatives just sweep right past them. It was a big explanation of why the Conservatives held Ontario for 42 years from 1943 to 1985.
Given the raft of Conservative victories at the Provincial level, probably followed by a federal Canadian Conservative victory at the next election, they should at least consider how a ‘ranked choice’ system would work for them.
I feel like it shows the complete moral bankruptcy of Labour/Labor as a movement when you’ve got supposed “Labor” supporters cheering on the capitulation of Labor to the Tories in supporting a policy responsible for dramatically worsening child poverty, in the hope of owning the Tories in a bloody by-election.
Locking in child poverty and then saying “oh well, they can flip-flop to the left on something to appease people” is abhorrent. It’s a kind of abject gutlessness that even the Labor Right of fifteen years ago would’ve abhorred. If you want Tory policy, why on earth do you want to legislate it as the Labor Party instead of just joining the party that actually does what you want?
Rebecca at 9.38 pm
Sir Starmer is far to the right of Lady Gillard about “the poor”.
Kirsdarkesays:
Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 9:15 pm
I dunno, the Liberals held government from 1993-2006 federally because of the splintering of the right.
First result – likely Uxbridge – expected around 3am UK time.
The two others will be later as more rural so takes time to get all the boxes to the central count location.
Excellent post and comments.
Thank you.
Lib Dems are claiming to have won in Somerton and Frome.
Not sure if they have scrutineers like we do as I have never worked a British election (as opposed to ones here or ones I have observed overseas) .
‘Despite the more than 20,000 Labour would need to win Selby – which would be the largest numerical overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history … – some commentators are confident that they’ve done it.’
Guardian blog
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/jul/20/byelection-results-conservatives-labour-lib-dems-somerton-frome-uxbridge-south-ruislip-selby-ainsty-uk-politics-latest-news
@ B S Fairman
Yes the parties have them over here and I have been one myself a number of times .
We call them “counting agents” and can observe the count and point out any errors such as a ballot for one candidate placed in the wrong pile and so on.
They also sample a batch of ballots as they are sorted to try and divine how well a candidate is doing (or not)
ChrisC: “They also sample a batch of ballots as they are sorted to try and divine how well a candidate is doing (or not)”
If that entails actually handling a batch of ballots, that would be a cardinal sin here. In Australian polling places, as in strip clubs, a strict ‘no touching’ rule applies.
Turnout is down from the General election but not as much as other recent by-elections in the UK. Admittedly different circumstances in most of them (Labour safe seats).
Oliver
Absolutely they do not touch any ballot paper.
It’s done by observation only.
Even if the kind if tough decisions Sir Kid Starver is so proud of, actually worked, well even then they would still be despicable, but we know they don’t work at all, it has all been done before and just made.things worse.
So despicable and stupid.
“If that entails actually handling a batch of ballots, that would be a cardinal sin here. In Australian polling places, as in strip clubs, a strict ‘no touching’ rule applies.”
Except it is actually enforced during the count.
WWP: I’m referring to polling places after the doors are closed at 6pm and the ‘preliminary scrutiny’ (first count) is undertaken by the polling staff. Party scrutineers are typically present on a ‘look but don’t touch’ basis.
Scrutineers are also permitted at the sequence of check counts back at the divisional HQs on the following days (and weeks), but usually only seen if there’s a tight count,
‘Only a fool would predict the result in Selby, but … I will say that it is looking pretty good for Labour in the piles of ballot papers I’ve seen piling up.’
Helen Pidd, Guardian blog
“WWP: I’m referring to polling places after the doors are closed at 6pm and the ‘preliminary scrutiny’ (first count) is undertaken by the polling staff. Party scrutineers are typically present on a ‘look but don’t touch’ basis.
Scrutineers are also permitted at the sequence of check counts back at the divisional HQs on the following days (and weeks), but usually only seen if there’s a tight count,”
I understand I’ve been in those rooms more often than I’ve been in strip clubs, and my point is the don’t touch rule is actually enforced in the count.
I remember once a scruitineer picked up a ballot for an old officer and well it was let go but it was a serious issue.
In strip clubs it seems it is enforced less often than it is ignored.
WWP: “… my point is the don’t touch rule is actually enforced in the count.“
Yeah, that’s what I was saying.
“I’ve been in those rooms more often than I’ve been in strip clubs”
[counts on fingers] Er, yeah, me too …
‘We’re hearing both the Uxbridge and South Ruislip and the Selby and Ainsty results could be declared in the next fifteen minutes.’
Guardian blog
Uxbridge a recount of Labour and Tory votes and a bundle check of all other candidates.
Who asked for the recount wasn’t revealed by the Returning Officer
““I’ve been in those rooms more often than I’ve been in strip clubs”
[counts on fingers] Er, yeah, me too …”
You didn’t need to get out the abacus?
BBC: Lloyd White, the returning officer in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, has just said a recount has been granted in the constituency.
“A recount has been asked for and granted,” White told the venue where the count’s taking place.
“We’ll be recounting all the Labour and Conservative votes – and we will be looking at the other bundles to make sure there are no Labour or Conservative votes in them,” he added.
‘ Declarations likely due in…
20-30 mins
Somerton & Frome
40-60 mins
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
1-2hrs
Selby & Ainsty’
Guardian blog, now
‘People [in Selby] are “really disappointed” that Adams quit in a huff because he didn’t get a seat in the lords, said [Andrew] Jones [Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough]. So, added Jones, was he.’
Guardian blog
Lib Dems very confident they have won Somerton off the Tories.
What a knob.
‘Results are about to be declared in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where the result was so close that a recount was granted.’
Uxbridge & South Ruislip:
Conservatives: 13,965
Labour: 13,470
Edit:
LibDem: 526
Independent: 91
If only the UK had preferential voting…
‘Candidates called to stage in Somerton and Frome’
Edit 1:
‘Liberal Democrats win Somerton and Frome’
Edit 2:
Liberal Democrats: 21,187
Tories: 10,179
Sadiq Khan obviously fucked up Labour’s campaign in Uxbridge, there will be some recriminations there.
Lib Dem win in Somerton is seismic, huge swing to them.
With local declarations at UK elections. Do the candidates know the result before it is publicly announced?
Whether it be via the returning officer or their own tallies?
Seems Sir Kid Starver’s plan to appeal to tories by being a tory didn’t work quite as well as he’d hoped.
“… the building where the Selby result is being announced imminently was named by one Steve Wadsworth. He won a competition to choose a name for the leisure centre in Selby with the suggestion ‘Selby Leisure Centre’”
Guardian blog
‘Labour win Selby and Ainsty
Labour have won Selby and Ainsty, achieving the greatest numerical overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history.
35,886 votes were cast, with 69 ballots rejected.
The results are as follows:
Labour: 16,456
Conservatives: 12,295
Yorkshire party: 1,503
Reform UK: 1,332
Independent: 99’
WeWantPaul
Seems Sir Kid Starver’s plan to appeal to tories by being a tory didn’t work quite as well as he’d hoped.
Might have worked in Selby and Ainsty.
Labour have won Selby and Ainsty, achieving the greatest numerical overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history.
But I am sure Corbyn would have done even better, right?
“Might have worked in Selby and Ainsty.”
Indeed, a second Keir now in da House.
”
Oliver Suttonsays:
Friday, July 21, 2023 at 11:41 am
Uxbridge & South Ruislip:
Conservatives: 13,965
Labour: 13,470
Edit:
LibDem: 526
Independent: 91
If only the UK had preferential voting
”
Starmer should resign for not winning Uxbridge.
In Selby: 35,886 votes were cast, with 69 ballots rejected.
When voters only have to place one X in one box, ballot informality is not a big issue.
Incredible to think in a country with 60+ million people that only 35,000 votes could be cast for an electorate.
Yes, I’m aware it’s not compulsory.
“Starmer should resign for not winning Uxbridge.”
He should resign for the fraud he committed on the members, for lacking spine and integrity and for being a tory in the mould of George Osborne, but without Osbornes commitment to progressive causes.
I’m not sure failing to win a seat whose population ever elected Boris, is there a lot of lead in the water, or a huge amount of marrying first cousins or siblings, is a huge issue.
Madhouse, I think the turnout was around 50%, so 35,000 votes from something like 70,000 eligible electors.
In Australia, around 100,000 per division.
The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge but winning Selby and the Lib-Dems smashing it in Somerton, really sends mixed messages. The two losses by massive margins are really bad omen for the Tories but the Uxbridge result suggests that they might be able to hang on in some place they otherwise don’t look like doing so.
As the narrative is that it was Khan’s policies that cooked the goose in Uxbridge, the lesson that Labour is likely to take out of it is to continue to avoid taking any stance on anything controversial until the general election.
The Tories will celebrate wildly over that unexpected result but completely ignore the underlying issues; not that they can solve them at this stage.
The Lib-Dems will just be very very happy with their result. All they are not polling well in the general polls, I suspect they will do extremely well with a bit of tactical voting in the general election. I think the voters are that annoyed with the Tories that there will be a lot.
WWP: “I’m not sure failing to win a seat whose population ever elected Boris, is there a lot of lead in the water, or a huge amount of marrying first cousins or siblings, is a huge issue.”
In 2001 I caught up in London with a childhood neighbour from our lower middle class Brisbane suburb.
He’d studied social work and (as young folk did in the 1970s) headed to the UK for work experience. 25 years on, he was a director in the Department of Social Services.
He drove Mrs S and me in his posh car to his nice house in Ruislip for a pleasant dinner with him and his English wife. All very Home Counties cosy.
More precisely, for MadHouse:
Australia: 2022 election
Voters enrolled: 17.229 million
Electoral divisions: 151
A bit over 114,000 per division.
Oliver Sutton
A bit over 114,000 per division.
Unless you live in Tasmania. It is a lot less there. But the Tasmanians are special – they deserve extra representation, along with my NSW GST money.