It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.
Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.
The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.
The LNP under Dutton is wanting to consolidate the 25% Right vote – and hope that the progressive forces crash and burn due to ‘events’.
Edge crackpots like Rennick and Antic are expendable – have to be – if there is any hope of luring back the Teal electorates
98.6 @ #1006 Friday, July 7th, 2023 – 5:54 pm
5 X the sentence then
Sounds like the loonies in the LNP smell Government is on the cards with getting rid of Rennick. Clear out the clowns so you can present a serious opposition ready to govern type of stuff. Others just speak in quiet tones and raise eyebrows.
The LNP are a joke.
For those dreaming that Toyota might finally be taking EVs seriously, it produced just 8000 electric vehicles in the first half of 2023, making up just 0.19% of its total production. Beware of great marketing announcements followed by ………. nothing much.
TPOF says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:54 pm
98.6 says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:08 pm
That 10% swing needed by Labor to take Fadden now looks within reach.
Could we be witnessing another 1 in a 100 year event in the making ?
______________________________________
Are we seeing the impact of political climate change?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 asks this :
I know approx one third of voters in Fadden will vote for the Libs doesn’t matter
what they do wrong.
But will the rest think about punishing the Liberal Party for not only giving us RoboDebt
but giving them a member in Stuart Robert who was found to be in part responsible for its implementation and ongoing execution even when he knew it was illegal.
Shouldn’t that be the way voters think.
We may get a surprise on Saturday week.
Cronus. What does that mean for the future of Toyota in your opinion? I worry for them.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:34 pm
With the RC report now tabled, the victims and their families need to see some justice and accountability. My thoughts are with them.
”
The people, who died because of Robodebt persecution, won’t come back. And non of the 4 ministers have shown any remorse for Robodebt debacle.
Governments go to war in the name of their people, impose National security measures to protect their people but they now are responsible for the death of people in the name of collecting debt from them. Not 1 or 2 or 100. It is almost 1/2 million vulnerable people.
Ven. Surely something will happen? Surely.
I would dearly like to see Kathryn Campbell spend the next three years in very expensive and stressful legal action. If the Government funds any of these bills it will truly be pathetic.
Thinking the $44b Elon Musk paid for Twitter is reducing to $0 by year end….
So now I’m blocking the Bimbos and Himbos on Threads – time consuming, but it may lead to a useful feed
However, it pains me to say that Scomo may well be being treated unreasonably on this occasion.
The Commissioner is setting a very high bar in saying there is a duty on a Minister to ask why legal advice has changed between two versions of a proposal. Yes, the Minister may well be curious about the change, but I also think they should be able to
assume their officials are competent and rely on their final advice if they wish.
wranslide says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 7:13 pm
Cronus. What does that mean for the future of Toyota in your opinion? I worry for them.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Toyota have had a good run for the last 50 years and they will most probably catch up in the next few years.
But do people buy a ‘brand’ these days ?
We all would like a Benz, BMW, or Audi but a Toyota ?
When was the last time you saw a stunningly different design car that you could afford and just had to have ?
Two of my friends have purchased a BYD, Build Your Dreams, electric car in the last month, a brand I had not heard of till they mentioned it. Since then I see quite a lot on the street and being heavily advertised.
But if you took the badges off them you wouldn’t know them from most other cars.
Same with Tesla.
Its rare that new cars give trouble that’s why the makers give up to 10 years warranty.
With 56 car manufacturers to choose from in Australia I wouldn’t worry too much about Toyota, they will get their share of EVs when they get their act together.
So now I’m blocking the Bimbos and Himbos on Threads – time consuming, but it may lead to a useful feed.
_______
If they could come up with a command that allowed Threads users to block out the frivolous and narcisistic crap in a blanket fashion, Threads would be on a winner.
UK Labour lead at 25 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times
LAB 47 (+1)
CON 22 (-2)
LIB DEM 9 (-1)
REF UK 9 (+1)
GREEN 7 (=)
Fieldwork 5-6 July
BK
Threads needs something like the Following option on Twitter – you only see what you want to
The Threads algorithm is overly aggressive – I followed ABC Sports and now I’m swamped with this stuff…
Brodie Grundy
What is the best Nintendo64 game? I’ll got first:
1. Mario Kart
2. Super Smash Bros
3. Mario Party
In that order.
But no doubt. threads is the ‘shiny new thing’….
I’m curious about Threads. (1) Does it offer the ability to follow or block based on hashtags? (2) Is it federated or a walled off?
I’m asking because Threads supposedly uses the same message protocol as Mastodon, which is federated and can use hashtags for following/blocking. (Neither of which twitter is or does.)
Defending scomo history in time seriously.
The clown was all over it.
wranslide says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 7:13 pm
Cronus. What does that mean for the future of Toyota in your opinion? I worry for them.
—————————————
wranslide
I too worry for their future, Toyota don’t even have a dedicated EV chassis yet, even the BZ4X is an ICE chassis. Worse still, despite their battery announcement, they failed to ever establish contracts with the big makers like CATL or Panasonic as a result of which they’ve been left stranded. But they’re not alone.
“ US automotive giant General Motors sold just 15,652 electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2023, down from 20,670 in Q1 representing a drop in sales of 24%. Over the same period Tesla sold 466,140 EVs, 30 times more than GM at a 10% quarter-over-quarter growth rate. GM sold a total of 691,978 vehicles in Q2 meaning EVs made up just 2.3% of the company’s total sales, well below the US national EV market share which is now over 7%.”
https://thedriven.io/2023/07/06/worrying-signs-for-gm-as-its-ev-sales-plunge-and-legacy-auto-stares-into-abyss/
And even VW are struggling somewhat. “Volkswagen is cutting shifts and production on its electric vehicle lines at its Emden plant in Germany despite surging June EV sales figures in Europe. The company says the production cuts are due to “strong customer reluctance” to buy their EVs.” VW’s problem has predominantly been with software, such that they are now using BYD’s software. At the same time, Tesla sales are booming in Germany so the problem lays with VW.
https://thedriven.io/2023/07/06/customer-resistance-volkswagen-cuts-ev-production-as-it-fails-to-keep-up-with-market/
I think Toyota will survive but most likely in a much reduced form and mostly within Japan. I think VW and GM will recover but more slowly than they would’ve hoped.
Late Riser says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 7:49 pm
I’m curious about Threads. (1) Does it offer the ability to follow or block based on hashtags? (2) Is it federated or a walled off?
1) No – there doesn’t appear to be hashtags at all – could just be me my limited IOS IPad view
2) can’t say – just one contiguous feed which you can manipulate through follows + and blocks –
So on Threads, I just followed Lincoln Project. So am expecting a surge of US liberal posts appearing
Thanks sprocket_. Federated would mean you’d be seeing messages from outside Threads, though perhaps only if hashtags are working. So if Zuckerberg’s business model needs to keep you walled-in then that might explain why hashtags aren’t enabled. It’ll be interesting how this evolves. Today’s AlienSideBoob has a fun essay on the Zuck and Musk.
Threads is a dud, don’t bother…
“You can’t post ass, Threads is doomed”
https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/06/you-cant-post-ass-threads-is-doomed-meta-instagram-twitter/
BK, on the Test match odds:
“Whatever the odds are now, they will be vastly different by the time the lunch break is taken.”
Just two balls into the morning session and Root’s gawn.
98.6
“ Toyota have had a good run for the last 50 years and they will most probably catch up in the next few years.”
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One of the problems Toyota is facing is customer loyalty. They’re losing brand stickability.
“ Toyota is no longer among the top names when it comes to brand loyalty in the United States, slipping into seventh place in the S&P Global Mobility study that analyzes the first four months of the year, according to Automotive News.
Typically, Toyota is “neck and neck” with Ford and Chevrolet, analyst Tom Libby said, but in this latest installment of the rankings, the Japanese automaker has suffered a demotion that was partly caused by customers jumping ship and choosing Tesla. As per the source, the percentage of customers who migrated from Toyota to Tesla was up 2.1 points to 5 percent year over year.”
https://insideevs.com/news/674395/toyota-brand-loyalty-falls/#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20Tesla%20is%20the,following%20BMW%20in%20the%20rankings.
Bairstow gone
‘Robodebt should never again be framed as a technological glitch or a legal oversight.
It was the active and direct exploitation of people’s vulnerability.’
https://theconversation.com/the-culmination-of-years-of-suffering-what-can-we-expect-from-the-robodebt-royal-commissions-final-report-202337
And another one bites the dust …
Bairstow out, England 5 down … and we’re not even halfway into the first hour.
At least red nut was not stumped
Henry says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 7:50 pm
Defending scomo history in time seriously.
The clown was all over it.
_________________________________
It’s called Ministerial accountability – which disappeared after Abbott became PM. It is the job of the Minister to ask obvious questions of his staff. A good Minister should have asked fundamental questions about legality and impact. Morrison, and his successors, did not. All they were interested in was how much money they could screw out of the unfortunates who had the temerity to claim their legitimate rights from the Government.
“On Friday, one 2GB host described robodebt as shameful and a human tragedy.”
Et tu, Brut?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/07/how-the-coalition-collaborated-with-friendly-media-to-silence-robodebt-victims
if the liberals wanted to winn back the teel ilectorates they might want to dump linda renyalds she has show how mean and how her remark in private about higgins reflected her true feelings it seems dutton is doing evrything to help albanese get a land slide
I think a Minister should be able to rely on expert legal advice from their department. It would be very impractical if they couldn’t and in any case that sort of technical advice is exactly what the public service is there for. I also don’t really think a Minister, even Scomo would knowingly take something unlawful to Cabinet. That said once the program was implemented I can see why inconvenient advice could be suppressed by invested officials or even potentially a Minister.
i dont think rennicks dumping will help them for all his crazynes he atleast has a profile i prodict he will follow kellhy to defect to iva one nation or palmer he has more of a profile then the inbvisable paul scarr
Apropos cricket conversation last evening, currently how boring is cricket and concomitant desperate commentary.
Historyintime
So your opinion is worth more than an ex Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Queensland, your self delusion is strong.
with the hard right renicks profile would actually have more of a chance winning from third unlikely but at least he has a porofile and would apeel to the phon uap vote now what will happin to antick despite the liberals image of no factions and stable the coalition has produced of strange mps
For all the posts about Morrison, Tudge et al, who, absent either charges, the electorate or NACC, all of which the Government cannot control, there is Campbell and other public servants who, continue to serve. What is to be done?
Aaron, with Resolve reporting the LNP’s primary vote down 7 points on the last election in Queensland (and Labor up 7 points), the allocation of the third spot on the LNP Senate ticket is likely to be a purely academic exercise.
Historyintime says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 8:49 pm
I think a Minister should be able to rely on expert legal advice from their department.
______________________________________
The problem is that the Minister did not ask or receive “expert legal advice from their department”. His Department was DSS, but he asked for the NPP to be prepared by DHS which, technically, was not his department but rather Marise Payne’s. Nobody ever provided explicit advice to Morrison that the scheme was legal. Rather, it was misleading material in the New Policy Proposal, which Morrison was happy not to consider carefully.
Just what do you think is the duty of a Minister?
Are the spotters out surveilling Kathryn Campbell over the weekend?
Kept an eye open to see if she calls in to Bunnings and emerges with a bundle of gardening tools.
Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 9:06 pm
Are the spotters out surveilling Kathryn Campbell over the weekend?
Kept an eye open to see if she calls in to Bunnings and emerges with a bundle of gardening tools.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And a sausage?
Missing from media coverage of the RC is the criticism of media and the media bias toward a Liberal Party government
The reason this disgrace was left to fester and damage was media and media being compliant players by way of attack on those recording complaint
To protect their Liberal Party government
The movement in the 10 Year Bond Yield over recent days is noted – up by some 30 basis points
The unemployment data in the USA has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons in respect to currency, bond yields and equity markets
The only consolation is that globally we are closer to the end of this cycle than the start
Here we go again says:
“Missing from media coverage of the RC is the criticism of media and the media bias toward a Liberal Party government”
Guardian Australia the honourable exception:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/07/how-the-coalition-collaborated-with-friendly-media-to-silence-robodebt-victims
Inflation rate
Venezuela: 429%
Lebanon: 260%
Argentina: 114%
Turkey: 38.2%
Egypt: 32.7%
Pakistan: 29.4%
Nigeria: 22.4%
Ukraine: 15.3%
Poland: 11.5%
Bangladesh: 9.7%
Sweden: 9.7%
UK: 8.7%
Austria: 8%
Australia: 7%
Norway: 6.7%
Ireland: 6.6%
Italy: 6.4%
Germany: 6.4%
South Africa: 6.3%
Mexico: 5.84%
Netherlands: 5.7%
Singapore: 5.1%
Israel: 4.6%
France: 4.5%
India: 4.25%
US: 4%
I’ve been a long-time Greens supporter and when I saw the party statement on the Robodebt RC I thought “gee that’s a bit shit, could have at least named the Liberals who are in this up to their eyebrows” but then I realised they’re not talking to me, they’re talking to the younglings.
To them (and to me, to be honest) there’s not much difference between the left and right wings of the Laboral party.
Yes to nukular submarines and stage 3 tax cuts. No to taxing the fossil fuel industry and providing genuine social security.
On that last point: social service NGOs have been howling for years that unemployment benefits should be lifted by a couple hundred bucks a week. Morrison raised the rate by $25 and Albanese added another $20. Gee thanks Albo from Public Housing.
The Greens are positioning themselves as Opposing All The Shit Ideas.
They gave Labor the option after the election: work with us. Labor instead opted to negotiate with the Liberals first on every. single. issue.
So don’t expect the Greens to differentiate between the Shit Party and Shit-Lite
Hairy B. Political analysis 0.