Resolve Strategic state and age breakdowns (open thread)

Polling breakdowns suggests federal Labor remains dominant in WA, and has gained most since the election at the younger and older end of the age scale.

It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.

Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.

The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 comments on “Resolve Strategic state and age breakdowns (open thread)”

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  1. B.S. Fairman says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 4:56 pm
    I remember when I was in the public service I was forever being told to make my work more “sexy”….. I guess the Royal Commission has taken it to a new level with a “sealed section”…. oh la la.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Apparently Alan Tudge said the same thing to his staff and one took him up on it.

  2. Arky says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 4:14 pm
    @Tom: “I would be asking how does a journo get access to a sealed document…”

    They ask someone who has access to tell them approximately how many people have been referred, and then print the answer.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6 says :
    Just ask Peter Van Onselen !

  3. Holmes found that Morrison, who was the social services minister behind the robo-debt scheme rollout in 2015, had allowed cabinet to be misled over the legality of the scheme.

    The report found he didn’t follow up on an inconsistency in 2015 after a stated need for legislative change to implement the scheme disappeared from a policy document prepared by bureaucrats that he took to cabinet.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-robo-debt-royal-commission-20230707-p5dmkb.html

    So what happens now? And what about a class action from the half million plus people illegally targetted?

  4. I skimmed Morrison’s response. Largely a case of nothing to do with him, but it is striking how he (and all the other ministers involved) expressed absolutely no empathy for the victims of the trail of misery and destruction they unleashed.

    It’s what they have not said that is the key to their culpability. They didn’t care; they don’t care; they will never care. About anyone but their miserable shitty selves.

  5. Player One says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 4:41 pm
    Apparently Morrison believes his evidence should carry the weight of five cabinet ministers, not just one.
    …………………………………………………………..
    Best post of the day, so far.

  6. Dutton is saying as much about the contents of the RC report as Johnny Bairstow is saying about his stumping dismissal. Nothing!

  7. BKsays:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 5:22 pm
    For those interested in the cricket, who are you tipping to win at this stage? I notice the bookies have the poms as slight favourites.
    ________________________
    Bystander
    Whatever the odds are now, they will be vastly different by the time the lunch break is taken.

    BK
    Which way do you see it swinging?

  8. I hope Stuart Robert is in the clear on RoboDebt. He will get his time before the NACC on his Synergy 360 introduction service as Minister

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/23/infosys-paid-16m-to-lobbying-firm-which-stuart-robert-allegedly-advised

    On the politicians, Scomo is the pea. If he gets dragged through whatever process to hammer home his absolute betrayal of the expectations of those who foolishly voted for him – bring it on.

  9. I’m checking in on Threads every so often – it seems like a Instagram deluge of Himbos and Bimbos along with NBA gossip.

    So far only following Dr Bonham and Albo….

  10. Scott Minister calling himself a “welfare cop”.
    Alan Tudge: We’ll find you, we’ll track you down and you will have to repay those debts and you may end up in prison,”

  11. Amy Remeikis@AmyRemeikis
    ·
    26m
    Seems Gerard Rennick has lost LNP senate preselection – ticket is Paul Scarr, Susan MacDonald (Nats) and then Stuart Fraser at number 3

  12. That 10% swing needed by Labor to take Fadden now looks within reach.
    Could we be witnessing another 1 in a 100 year event in the making ?

  13. Ven says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:05 pm
    Scott Minister calling himself a “welfare cop”.
    Alan Tudge: We’ll find you, we’ll track you down and you will have to repay those debts and you may end up in prison,”
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Did someone mention PRISON ?

  14. @P1: The 5 ministers gag was actually a good one. I shouldn’t encourage you but hey, I’m fundamentally honest.

    @ross: “How long before somebody on Sky News or in the Murdoch press declares that it’s a stitch up and Holmes, Greggery et al are all Labor operatives.”

    I am going to take “happened already” in the pool, sight unseen.

    The press release from the Greens using the occasion to ignore Morrison and co and attack Labor is yet more of an example to demonstrate that all the Greens care about now is dragging down Labor, whatever they need to twist to do it. It’s pretty sad. They used to be real believers and most of their supporters still are.

  15. David Crowe in the Costello media sums it up for the mainstream…

    The final verdict is damning.

    “Robo-debt was a crude and cruel mechanism, neither fair nor legal, and it made many people feel like criminals,” Holmes writes. “In essence, people were traumatised on the off chance they might owe money.”

    The elected leaders who oversaw this failure are criticised for their conduct. The report says Morrison allowed federal cabinet to be misled because he failed to meet his responsibility to ensure the peak group was fully informed about the policy.

    It says Alan Tudge abused his power as social services minister by using information about social security recipients to counter media reports. It says Christian Porter, in the same portfolio at a different time, could not “rationally have been satisfied” about the legality of the scheme.

    Morrison, Tudge and Porter are forever shamed by this report. Whatever the referrals in the sealed chapter, it is clear they oversaw a scheme that snatched money from people who could not afford to pay and did so on terms that broke the law.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rotten-from-the-start-morrison-tudge-and-porter-are-forever-shamed-by-robo-debt-20230706-p5dm75.html

  16. Yay for the Coalition dumping Rennick.

    One tiny step back away from going the full far-right clown car. With Dutton around they need every little one of those tiny steps they can get.

  17. Amy Remeikis@AmyRemeikis
    ·
    26m
    Seems Gerard Rennick has lost LNP senate preselection – ticket is Paul Scarr, Susan MacDonald (Nats) and then Stuart Fraser at number 3

    Careful the screen door doesn’t whack you on the arse on the way out.

    Even the QLD LNP have grown tired of idiots wearing their badge in the Senate

  18. @BK: Really depends on the weather. If England come out to bat in nice sunny conditions with no wind or moisture and the pitch has lost its demons, England ought to be clear favourites. If the day starts like yesterday, I’d back Australia from here.

  19. The question is does Rennick stay on or walk over to the crossbench? There is little reason for him to stay in the partyroom.
    Join Hanson and her little friend Roberts? Both are in their late 60s and might be looking to retire by 2025. At least get in the good books with them and then move in when they move on.
    Or he could try forming his own Right wing party…. because that is exactly what Australia needs – another party based around an individual.

  20. Confessions – What a turn of events that ACA is now on the side of the “welfare cheats” that they so often attacked in the past.

    As for Stuart Fraser, he is a “staunch community representative and has long assisted the archdiocese of Brisbane”…. so he is a Catholic nut instead?


  21. 98.6says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:11 pm
    Ven says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:05 pm
    Scott Minister calling himself a “welfare cop”.
    Alan Tudge: We’ll find you, we’ll track you down and you will have to repay those debts and you may end up in prison,”
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Did someone mention PRISON ?

    98.6
    Yes, Alan Tudge. It will be a fitting finale if he goes to jail.

  22. Ven @ #767 Friday, July 7th, 2023 – 6:25 pm


    98.6says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:11 pm
    Ven says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:05 pm
    Scott Minister calling himself a “welfare cop”.
    Alan Tudge: We’ll find you, we’ll track you down and you will have to repay those debts and you may end up in prison,”
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Did someone mention PRISON ?

    98.6
    Yes, Alan Tudge. It will be a fitting finale if he goes to jail.

    Yes, more fitting than the handshakes and backslapping he got from his parliamentary colleagues after his farewell speech.

  23. With the RC report now tabled, the victims and their families need to see some justice and accountability. My thoughts are with them.

  24. Let’s think about why they did it, apart from they thought they could get away with it, and were unanswerable to anybody, and a law under themselves.

    They hated the idea that poor people might actually have got more money than they should have, a pittance, if anything at all, compared to the rip off at the other end of the spectrum, which included themselves, rorting and porking. But poor people, people who didn’t vote for them, or look like them, or smirk and lie like them, no way.

    Secondly, actually probably firstly, they were desperate to bulk up their lie that they were good economic managers with a 4 – 5 billion top off, with poor people’s money, of their bottom line, and a flash rat gold toothed boast something about back in the black.

    Thirdly, they’re arseholes, doing what arseholes do.

  25. I honestly expected PM Albanese to somewhat let the RoboDebt RC report speak for itself, in a similar way that Premier Chris Minns let the ICAC report on CORRUPT Berejiklian speak for itself.
    I found Minns to be afraid to be seen to be attacking a woman when she is down and for being stupid in her love relationships. But he missed a great opportunity to show the voters of NSW how they were conned by, not only their premier but by the Liberal and National Parties.
    However, when the PM and Bill Shorten ripped it into the Liberals this morning my household was cheering them on.
    This is what I, and I presume, every one of the more than 500,000 who were illegally accused of owing a debt to the government have been waiting on for a long, long time.

  26. If I didn’t misread it, the Green’s statement fails even once to mention either the former government that was entirely responsible for the Robodebt disaster or any of its individuals. Furthermore, it names Labor on several occasions as though to intentionally link it to the Robodebt disaster and slate home responsibility for it to Labor.

    We can at least trust the Liberals to be deliberately untruthful, they’re consistent. I find the Greens Party to be entirely untrustworthy, deceptive, bad faith actors. They don’t appear to reflect their support base whatsoever.

  27. ItzaDream says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:36 pm
    Let’s think about why they did it, apart from they thought they could get away with it, and we’re unanswerable to anybody, and a law under themselves.

    They hated the idea that poor people might actually have got more money than they should have, a pittance, if anything at all, compared to the rip off at the other end of the spectrum, which included themselves, rorting and porking. But poor people, people who didn’t vote for them, or look like them, or smirk and lie like them, no way.

    Secondly, actually probably firstly, they were desperate to bulk up their lie that they were good economic managers with a 4 – 5 billion top off, with poor people’s money, of their bottom line, and a flash rat gold toothed boast something about back in the black.

    Thirdly, they’re arseholes, doing what arseholes do.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    If you sent this to a Newscorp paper to be included as a Letter to the Editor, do you think they would print it ?
    Its worth sending it anyway. At least one of their staff will read it.

  28. The Daily Dutton’s take on the defenestration of Rennick….

    Anti-mandate Liberal senator wiped off the ticket

    Controversial Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has been kicked off the party’s Senate ticket, in a blow to Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s authority.

  29. Heavy rain forecast for day 3 – Saturday – in Leeds and then showers on Sunday and Monday. A draw is most likely at this stage.

  30. Confessions says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:29 pm
    B.S. Fairman @ #1027 Friday, July 7th, 2023 – 6:23 pm

    Confessions – What a turn of events that ACA is now on the side of the “welfare cheats” that they so often attacked in the past.

    Very true.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    Haven’t watched that show for 10 years + for that very reason of them attacking welfare cheats and dole bludgers. (Not to be confused with Poll Bludgers)

  31. 98.6 says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:08 pm
    That 10% swing needed by Labor to take Fadden now looks within reach.
    Could we be witnessing another 1 in a 100 year event in the making ?

    ______________________________________

    Are we seeing the impact of political climate change?

  32. Have the Government sacked Kathryn Campbell yet? Or is she still employed in the other huge waste of tax payer dollars they have given the codename AUKUS.

  33. Ok, I think I have worked out the Threads algorithm.

    Keep following anyone relevant – like Albo, TanyaP, theAge, SMH, and you get offered more Australian politicians and media. You get more of the same related showing, keep following them….

    Now how to work out how drop the Bimbos and Himbos…

  34. Sprocket – Was Dutton supporting Rennick to keep his spot?

    The third spot is only winnable for the LNP next time if they are able to get passed One Nation. It is unlikely that 2019 would occur again where it was Three LNP, One ON, One Labor and One Green (ironically the Labor senator was Green).

  35. B.S. Fairman says:
    Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:59 pm
    Sprocket – Was Dutton supporting Rennick to keep his spot?

    Will Rennick now join One nation?

  36. BSF – nothing public about Dutton support for Rennick

    I suspect he is happy to let this crackpot disappear from the party

  37. Thinking about it more UAP might have more money. And Palmer might realise that Craig Kelly is not a great poster boy.

  38. I thought according to the Labor powerbrokers on here that Campbell was gone the moment the report was released? Or is there another fairness that must be afforded (not afforded to robodebt victims) again?

    Its not like AUKUS is going to result in anything but great expense, and a few photos for fawning media, looking out over San Diego every so often.

    And if that Trump fellow gets in, well who even knows? Claire O’Neil probably has the answer I reckon.

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