The Financial Review today brings us a Queensland state poll from Freshwater Strategy, which tracks with recent YouGov polling from the state in crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a 52-48 lead over Labor (though not with Resolve Strategic, whose April result was stronger for Labor). The primary votes are LNP 40%, compared with 35.9% at the 2020 election; Labor 34%, compared with 39.6%; and the Greens 11%, compared with 9.5%. A preferred premier question finds little separating the two leaders, with David Crisafulli on 45% and Annastacia Palaszczuk on 44%.
Questions on best party to handle various issues find Labor favoured on welfare and education, but seemingly losing its mantle on the traditional Labor strength of health, after widely publicised issues in regional hospitals. The worst result for Labor is crime and social order, which has likewise been a source of bad press for the government. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1065.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Queensland politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I think that Palaszczuk’s had a tremendous run, but the cracks in this government are showing now. I’d like to see her hand over the reins in the lead up to the election. Haven’t made my mind up to whom.
I don’t think an LNP majority is particularly likely at this stage (thankfully) but could see Labor losing enough seats for it to come down to wooing the Katters.
Ok the margin is a little bigger, but the story was about the same last election.
https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/newspoll-figures-show-swing-to-major-parties-in-2020-queensland-election/news-story/30670c45bcac516750db3f817715b7e6
Opposition Leaders getting ahead in preferred leader is never a good indicator as even most winning opposition leaders don’t get there before they win. I don’t count out AP who has been here before, but hers is an old government with a growing it’s time factor against them, no longer aided by an unpopular Coalition government federally. It will be a hell of a win to do it again.
“ The worst result for Labor is crime and social order, which has likewise been a source of bad press for the government.”
The source of that bad press is the aforesaid bad press.
What is the distribution of the favorables for the LNP? If it isn’t in the SE corner I cant see them winning majority.
frednk says:
“Ok the margin is a little bigger, but the story was about the same last election”
Newspoll’s prognostications didn’t age well:
“Voters were also shifting from the Greens to the major parties …”
The Greens took South Brisbane from Labor, and retained Maiwar, won from the LNP at the previous election.
> What is the distribution of the favorables for the LNP? If it isn’t in the SE corner I cant see them winning majority.
I think most of the lower hanging fruit is the regional cities – Hervey Bay/Bundaberg/Townsville with its Law and Order shitfight. In Brisbane, the Greens will soak up a LOT of the dissatisfaction with Labor and naturally most of the rest of SEQ is already under the LNP’s belt.
Oliver Sutton 846am
“Bad press”. Exactement.
This includes the 4 TV stations as well as ABC radio and paper media. A continuous stream of negativity across the board. It’s often hard to avoid as its in the TV news headlines or shouting out from the Curious Snail as one walks into the newsagency. I do like to catch up with what’s happening in Brisbane but as soon as something State political comes up, or Crisafulli comes on, often more than once in a bulletin, I hit the mute.
It’s always interesting to speculate exactly who responds to these polls. Are they people who are regular consumers of the aforesaid media? Are they certain demographics.?
The CM may be well past its once powerful influence here in Qld, but it is a legacy paper. It’s often free in coffee shops or Macca’s so people grab it. Walk past a coffee shop in a shopping centre and its seniors who are reading it with their drink. So it still reaches out to certain demographics.
15 months out from the next State election. Time will tell, and a week can be a long time in politics.
That’s gotta put copper and McConnell in play for the greens.
With a 3% primary lead over labor they won with a 5% primary lead in south brisbane. So let’s assume they can make up 2% from preferences as a rule.
They are 4.47% behind in cooper and 7.15% behind in McConnell on primaries.
These swings, distributed evenly would give a 7.1% swing to greens on primaries, enough for cooper and McConnell incredibly close.
But realistically, the greens swing won’t be 1.5% in every seat. It’s an assumption that works for the two bigger parties, but not the greens. They got 3.95% of the vote in Callide. A 1.5% swing increases their vote share by nearly 50%. They should get a bigger swing in McConnell and smaller in callide.
Gettysburg: “It’s often hard to avoid as it’s in the TV news headlines or shouting out from the Curious Snail as one walks into the newsagency.”
Indeed. Just yesterday I looked out of a bus window to see a front page block-caps headline: ‘INVESTORS FLEE STATE’.
The real story, it seems, is that a recent drop in housing investment is fractionally greater in Queensland than nationwide.
“… its seniors who are reading it with their drink”
Not this card-carrying senior. 🙂
I’ve been out of Qld now for a year, who’s the obvious replacement for Annastacia? I’m not sure she’s give up the job though, this kinda of stuff goes to their head somewhat, 4th terms are historic.
Mostly Interested: “4th terms are historic.”
Peter Beattie won four terms on the trot.
And Anna Bligh took Labor into a fifth. In which she recklessly privatised public assets and laid the path for Newman.
(Just for one term, thankfully.)
> That’s gotta put copper and McConnell in play for the greens.
It does look like evidence that Chandler-Mather’s high profile isn’t hurting them and Labor’s attacks on him aren’t biting.
(I know in general you shouldn’t conflate State and Federal, but I don’t think you get Amy Mcmahon without Jonathan Sriranganathan, and you don’t get MCM without them both.)
“> That’s gotta put [Cooper] and McConnell in play for the greens”
Indeed. Federally, the Greens swathe across Brisbane’s suburbs sweeps all the way from Griffith, south of the river, to the banks of Kedron Brook, lapping at the door of Dickson.
I think Palasczuck is still the ALP’s best leader. She has been dominant and I think Queenslanders like that. If she is on-song at the election I’d say it’s 50/50 whether Labor gets back. If she’s gone, or unfocused, or there is a major scandal or problem-zone in the next year then the LNP should win, prob by picking up regional seats
@ Historyintime
Unfortunately for the LNP, it’s not good enough for them to win regional seats for Government. Realistically, they have to pick up a swag of seats in SEQ itself. The Greens may pick up some seats from Labor in the SE, reducing Labors chance of retaining majority government, but there’d have to be major dissatisfaction across the board with Labor for the LNP to form a majority government. Katter obviously would back them in minority government but The Greens certainly won’t, regardless of any Labor seat they could pick up.
Will there be a swing to the LNP? Most certainly. Enough to sweep them into government?
Maybe. Enough for majority government? Doubtful, even on the latest poll.
Labor has to lose in 2024. LNP can’t win it.
As for history… someone else has already pointed that out.
As for the ” it’s time” meme, the LNP can’t really ride that one.
We’ll see , come October- next year.
A bit concerning, certainly, but the Palasczcuk government has been here before (it’s pretty much spent its entire life on the verge of being kicked out of office going off of the polling) and there’s still well over a year until the next election.
While we do now have the added handicaps of a federal Labor government (albeit a popular one) and a bit of an “it’s time” factor, the current pendulum is pretty favourable to the government, SEQ will probably remain a challenge for the opposition (I can envision a situation where there are big swings in the mostly LNP-held seats in the regions but Brissy holds strong and/or just sees losses to the Greens instead of the LNP), and – of course – Labor should still reap the benefits of their biggest asset: the laughably incompetent and out-of-touch clusterfuck that is the state LNP.
> Katter obviously would back them in minority government but The Greens certainly won’t
I think it’s a mistake to think the Katters are as much a lock for the LNP as the Greens are for Labor. If memory serves, they were fairly supportive of Palaszczuk’s first minority government. While they get behind some extremely gross things ideologically, what they really want is pragmatic outcomes for their electorates. I think as long as a Labor govt can promise that, they have a chance to woo them,
Does anyone know who freshwater strategy is ? AP has labelled them as LNP operatives. The website says business strategy consultants. Sounds a bit strange to me , especially after a very well received budget with cost of living relief and a large surplus. The bill relief will be framed as only possible because ALP stopped candoe Newman’s asset sales.
joeldipops @ #19 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 12:24 pm
Yeah, Katter the Younger is looking to stay relevant and in parliament, I think they have 3 seats? That might be a high water mark for them. FNQ is a foreign land to me even though I once lived in Townsville.
I’d expect the Katter party to support confidence with the party who has the most seats, sign nothing, and vote on each piece of legislation on it’s own merits.
@Princeplanet: Kevin Bonham described Freshwater thusly at the Victorian election:
“a relatively new firm involving experienced ex-C|T Group pollster Michael Turner, who was house pollster for the Morrison Government at the last two elections”
CT Group is Crosby-Textor.
Despite the Crosby-Textor and Morrison connections, Freshwater got the ALP and Coalition primaries pretty much bang on at the Vic state election, and slightly high for Labor on 2PP (which was because they overestimated the Greens on primaries at the expense of “others”, and thus overestimated the preference flow to Labor). That’s a good start at least.
48/52 seems about right at this stage. The Government has certainly come back from minor deficits before when the question is more real. I always think the Government is just keeping its head above water popularity wise and could sink with a few bad months, but it never seems to.
If these are the numbers at the election then it would probably put the LNP at 45-50 seats and Labor at 35-45 seats, depending on where the swings are.
If the LNP wins majority government, I’d imagine there’s a few things they’d like to do, such as get revenge for Labor changing the electoral system from optional to full preferential voting, possibly even going as far as reverting to first past the post as some of them have been suggesting.
But if they get too arrogant and govern as they please without an upper house to stop them, as Campbell Newman found out, voters can turn on them very strongly.
“Palaszczuk was a fraction behind as preferred premier, at 44% to Crisafulli’s 45%.”
* * *
“About 39% of those surveyed said they had not heard of Crisafulli.”
Hmm … 2 out of 5 Queenslanders haven’t heard of Cresta-fallen … but he nevertheless (statistically) ties with Palaszczuk as preferred Premier.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/05/annastacia-palaszczuk-dismisses-poll-that-suggests-labor-could-lose-2024-queensland-election
>Hmm … 2 out of 5 Queenslanders haven’t heard of Cresta-fallen … but he nevertheless (statistically) ties with Palaszczuk as preferred Premier.
The question is what happens if he is more well known, will his popularity go up or down?
> reverting to first past the post as some of them have been suggesting
Mother of God, don’t even joke about that!
@joeldipops
Well, realistically, what would stop them if they decided to go down that path?
Queensland is probably the Australian state that has gone through the most changes in state-level voting systems in its history, probably rivalled by South Australia with its various voting systems.
First was First Past the Post to Contingency in 1893,
then establishing full single member districts in 1912 (after it being a mixed single- and multi- member district system)
then abolishing the Legislative Council altogether in 1922,
then Contingency voting for the Lower House to FPTP in 1944,
then FPTP to Full Preferential Voting in 1963,
then FPV to Optional Preferential Voting in 1992,
then OPV to FPV in 2017.
It wouldn’t be so surprising if they decided to go from FPV to FPTP in 2028 to really wedge that split in the Labor-Greens vote for their benefit. While it could backfire on them what with the One Nation, Palmer and Katter vote, they could take that chance.
QLD, particularly the SE has been a net receiver of internal migration so it’d be interesting to see if that changes anything in a meaningful way i.e. are the majority progressives or conservatives?
Imagine looking at the LNP wasteland they’ve created federally and in NSW in the past decade and thinking “yeah, I’ll have some of that”. Crazy.
@MadHouse
That’s right. When you look at the pendulum, most of Labor’s most marginal seats are in the regions, but also most of the LNP’s most marginal seats are in South East Queensland. For them to win a majority, they’d need to hold all of their SEQ seats, gain Labor’s regional marginals and then some more of Labor’s SEQ seats.
On 52-48, that’s something of a longshot to get to 47 from the 34 seats they have now.
I always believe polls are a good indication of what people are thinking at any given time in the life of a government.
Would I as a Labor voter be content with them trailing 48 to 52 to the LNP ?
Well no, I would rather it be the other way around but I would be a fool to think Labor could sustain a winning margin year in and year out for 4 years.
16 months out from the next state election I would expect at least another 8 to 10 polls and I would start to worry if similar numbers or an increase in numbers for the LNP appear in most of them.
At this stage from everything I know about QLD politics, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk will still be Premier after the 26th October 2024.
‘The question is what happens if he is more well known, will his popularity go up or down?’
That is indeed the question, Catprog.
Crisafulli presents as terminally insipid. Can’t see him galvanising a public mood for change in Queensland … but you never know.
MadHouse says:
‘QLD, particularly the SE has been a net receiver of internal migration so it’d be interesting to see if that changes anything in a meaningful way i.e. are the majority progressives or conservatives?’
It was ever thus.
Through the 1980s, I recall a statistic of 50,000 Victorians a year moving north.
Mostly retirees, heading for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, boosting Joh’s vote.
Oh, and bringing their funny football with them.
52- 48 is not a convincing lead even if correct. This does not indicate a big enough mood for change at this stage, and if ALP were in opposition I would think it encouraging at best. I would be concerned with a 54-46 result but when the anti AP stuff that gets trotted out every single day especially in the Courier you would expect a worse result. Labor gets held to account for just about everything but do the voters believe the LNP will do better? Do voters believe there anything the LNP can do that will stop all crime and ensure every person gets a house and perfect health care with no bad outcomes. Not bloomin’ likely but at least the Courier will cease it’s anti ALP whinging should their mob win.
One of the wildcards here is whether Robbie Katter will stick around in state politics or whether he will move federal and take over the Katter family fiefdom of Kennedy. Bob Katter can’t go on forever – he will be turning 80 at about the time of the 2025 election. And if Robbie was to go federal would the KAP brand have any future at the state level? The KAP seats would more naturally fall into the LNP column should the KAP come to grief. It would also not seem that Mirani would be a sure ON thing, it would not take much for the ALP to come in third and they would be unlikely to preference ON.
Palaszczuk’s response to this poll:
https://inqld.com.au/politics/2023/07/05/voters-seem-to-be-souring-on-premier-in-latest-poll-but-shes-having-none-of-it/
Palaszcuck shouldn’t get too sour. That will sink the Government as one of her key strengths has been a responsive public nature.
Channel Nine Brisbane and the Courier-Mail have been running an enhanced Law and Order campaign against the government for about a year now. This is over and above their natural level of anti-Labor bias. They have been running the LNP’s campaign for them cost free.
It doesn’t surprise me that this is having an impact.
Regardless of which media mob have been running what, where & against who, the Labor government of Qld is very tired with it’s leader hell bent on the 2032 Olympics spending & without a qualm about the average voter’s needs.
There’s a huge list of failures from Anna Palaszcuck’s administration & bugger all solutions to any of it. The Opposition are keeping their powder dry, but their leader is slowly white anting Anna’s mob & whether it’s going to be enough will be in Anna’s hands, because her mob will have to lose the unlosable election, regardless if she reckons that they’re the underdogs.
The Opposition may well just fall over the line given that the Qld public are still getting used to four year terms, which they voted for but…
jim says:
Thursday, July 6, 2023 at 8:30 pm
Regardless of which media mob have been running what, where & against who, the Labor government of Qld is very tired with it’s leader hell bent on the 2032 Olympics spending & without a qualm about the average voter’s needs.
98.6 says :
I agree that it doesn’t matter which media mob are saying whatever, its always been that way and Labor has still won the last 3 elections regardless, increasing their majority each time.
As for the Meanjin Olympics, yes they will costa-lotta but the EXTRA $15 billion from coal royalties will cover most of that.
jim says :
There’s a huge list of failures from Anna Palaszczuk’s administration & bugger all solutions to any of it.
98.6 says :
I’m not sure about ‘huge’ and I’m not sure about ‘failures’ but over the years there have been things that could have been done better.
jim says :
The Opposition are keeping their powder dry, but their leader is slowly white anting Anna’s mob & whether it’s going to be enough will be in Anna’s hands, because her mob will have to lose the unlosable election, regardless if she reckons that they’re the underdogs.
98.6 says :
I agree with all of that.
jim says :
The Opposition may well just fall over the line given that the Qld public are still getting used to four year terms, which they voted for but…
98.6 says :
As you know jim anything can happen in politics. I want to see several more polls before I agree with your last line.
jim: “There’s a huge list of failures from Anna (sic) Palaszcuck’s administration”
Please explain?
I’ve had the Courier Mail/Sunday Mail delivered 7 days a week for over 40 years.
I love it and read it for about an hour every day.
Yes I know, it is THE official opposition in QLD politics and I know it attacks Labor and PAP every single day.
So what ?
Its been that way ever since I can remember and still Labor has been in government for approx 30 years since 1989.
I love to read all the attacks on PAP knowing that the Tory reporters and journalists are suffering because their side can’t win and they are hurting.
I read the Courier because its Meanjin’s only paper and I know most people/voters don’t really give a stuff about their one sided views, it comes with all Murdoch’s papers.
Joh’s mob were in power for 30 years..must be time for a change in Qld..
jim says:
Friday, July 7, 2023 at 7:42 pm
Joh’s mob were in power for 30 years..must be time for a change in Qld..
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Maybe ?
But without Joh’s right hand man, Jerry Mander, it seems that Labor will have a decent chance
to win another one or two 4 year terms, that will see PAP lead the procession into the Woolloongabba Olympic Stadium in 2032.
HELLO !
Kirsdarke, The LNP won’t revert to optional preferential voting without a referendum because people voted to get rid of it, they will be defeated comfortably in 2028 if they did this without a vote, because swing voters would see this as a power grab by the LNP to win more seats, it will backfire.
If they can’t win a majority under the current system then that is on them to change. Nobody’s fault but theres. With this youth crime crisis they should easily be beating Labor right now and should be ahead 54-46
Daniel T,
To the best of my (limited) knowledge, Qld’s change from OPV to full preferential occurred with a simple act of parliament – thanks to Bob Katter. Therefore it can be reversed the same way and there’ll be no requirement for a referendum.
Yep. Look what I just found. I think it was called at the time as an own goal by the LNP.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-21/compulsory-prefential-voting-returns-qld-parliament-passes-bill/7348172
You are right Santa, it can be changed back to OPV at any time. The ALP knew that OPV was a bad system for them as the green vote often exhausts under OPV whereas the green voter often grudgingly puts the ALP above to the Nats/Libs in compulsory preferential voting. The Courier/LNP complained bitterly about this change but it can work against them as well. OPV is not a good system as it can create very unbalanced results like 2012 in Qld with 7 ALP members. In the Brisbane council it has ensured the LNP has had a good majority for a long time now. At the last election The ALP and greens got 48% of the vote yet have 6 seats compared to the LNP with 45% and 19 seats in other words a winner takes it all system. The Courier / LNP would hope this could be replicated in the state scene but the BCC is far more more moderate than the state LNP so that helps them as well.
wonder whiy alp does well state wide but struggles federaly with lnp dominating maybi state mps betterwith all the media campaigning palasczuk along with victoria haveoutlasted the nsw liberal premiers and all state lib leaders
..Jerry Mander?? is that the electoral boundary scam introduced by Labor way back before Joh’s time? …regardless, Queensland sorely needs an Upper House, something else that was abolished on the sly, ‘swamped’ is the word, by the Labor Party of Qld way back in the early 20’s..