Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)

Resolve Strategic brings the government very good news on voting intention, but rather less good news on the Indigenous Voice.

The Age/Herald reports that the Resolve Strategic poll, from which budget response numbers were published on Tuesday, had strong results for Labor on voting intention, all but replicating the resounding Labor lead in the prevous poll a month ago. Labor was steady on the primary vote at 42%, with the Coalition up two to 30%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation down one to 5% and the United Australia Party up one to 2%. Resolve Strategic does not publish two-party preferred numbers, but I make this to be about 61-39 in Labor’s favour based on previous election preference flows, compared with 62-38 last time.

There are some rather quirky results in the breakdowns, including a lurch in favour of Labor in Victoria (what I reckon to be a two-party lead of about 66.5-33.5, out from 58-42 last time) and against it in Queensland (a lead of at most 51-49, compared with 60-40 last time). The poll also finds Labor doing slightly better among men than women, which is in contrast to Essential Research’s findings of a consistent gender gap in the opposite direction, in keeping with the conventional wisdom. However, Resolve Strategic’s finding was supported by the most recent aggregated demographic breakdowns from Newspoll, which had Labor leading 55-45 among men and 54-46 among women. All concerned find the Greens doing better among women than men.

The poll’s personal ratings record no change for Anthony Albanese, who remains at 56% in his combined very good and good rating and 29% for combined very poor and poor. Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 28% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 53-20, in from 55-21 last time.

Less happily for the government, the poll included a question on the Indigenous Voice that records the softest support of any credible poll to date, at odds with the near-simultaneous finding from Essential Research. It found 44% in favour (down two on a month ago), 39% opposed (up eight) and 18% undecided (down four), with a forced response follow-up recording 53% in favour and 47% opposed (58% and 42% last time). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1610 from Wednesday to Sunday.

The latest weekly Roy Morgan numbers suggest the slump it recorded in Labor support a fortnight ago to have been an anomaly – Labor now leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 54.5-45.5 last week and 53.5-46.5 the week before. The primary votes are Labor 36.5% (up one), Coalition 33.5% (down two) and Greens 13% (up half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,155 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 30, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 … 22 23 24

  3. The worst Part is that Albo sems to believe he’s doing good and the media (see the sickening articles by David Crowe and the bonge in the Saturday paper) are mostly on board.

    All based on a 2 right-wing party preferred narrative. It’s a con and a lie.

  4. I’ll believe you when you start criticising the LNP for their actions instead of the ALP for not undoing the damage of those actions fast enough.

  5. No question @outside left for acute care, public hospitals are awesome

    Just try getting an appointment to see a GP where I live (min 2 week wait) , and without a payment (impossible) , and tell me universal health care isn’t dead

    As a kid and in my twenties I went to the GP all the time, and I actually HAD a GP, now it’s impossible. Yes acute care is still there but how sustainable is it?

    If I can’t go to a doctor to get something checked out or have a checkup without paying then universal health care is dead

  6. PageBoi: “If I can’t”

    Me me me me me me. You should put that on your slogans. It explains the blocking of social housing legislation without all of the faff.

  7. Rex Douglas @ #1101 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 5:15 pm

    It’s true that GP bulk-billing for everyone except concession/health card holders is all but dead.

    We drive from Fremantle to see the GP who used to work in the coastal town we came from.
    He now works in a clinic in Cottesloe, one of the highest income postcodes in the country.
    He bulk bills, go figure.

  8. Pageboi

    “ Medicare is dead, at least for me. I haven’t been to a GP since Covid, seriously. There isn’t a single GP in my region that bulk bills general patients, not one. The ‘game changing ‘ changes were only to the bulk billing ‘supplement’ which only applies to those under 16 or concession card holders. My youngest is now 16 and my wife and I both work full time, so the ALP just normalised a copayment for health care for us, which has been coalition policy for ages. Thanks Albo”

    Labor inherited a lot of social welfare problems after ten years of conservative grifternment, plus a tripled debt, plus an inflation problem, plus an economy on the brink. There is no way all those problems can be fixed in one year starting from that position.

    The inflation and debt problem meant that Labor could not borrow and bump up spending as they might have liked. Excessive borrowing risks pressure on interest rates, which harms home buyers.

    Labor already cut in excess of $16 billion in Morrison rort funding and IA are reviewing 120 more projects. The $4 billion surplus shows that all of that money recouped, plus all but a fraction of the extra iron ore revenue, has been put back into medicare, benefit increases etc.

    But there was no way Labor could solve all the problems in one budget without risking tanking the economy and/or spiking interest rates.

    *Also, so far Labor hasn’t actually spent any extra on AUKUS. All the funding has been reallocated from other defense cuts. Sub spending now (training etc) is less than if the French contract had continued.

  9. PageBoi @ #1096 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 6:55 pm

    Medicare is dead, at least for me. I haven’t been to a GP since Covid, seriously. There isn’t a single GP in my region that bulk bills general patients, not one. The ‘game changing ‘ changes were only to the bulk billing ‘supplement’ which only applies to those under 16 or concession card holders. My youngest is now 16 and my wife and I both work full time, so the ALP just normalised a copayment for health care for us, which has been coalition policy for ages. Thanks Albo

    Try and see a specialist? Yeah right, if you can afford it

    On higher education, my 16yo son isn’t really sure what he wants to do but he has a keen interest in history and the humanities, but should he choose to go to uni then he’ll be left with a $50k plus millstone around his neck, thanks to scomos changes which the ALP are apparently fine with

    But it’s all good, wait for the budget or the next election, apparently. Meanwhile the national share of income going to profits instead of wages continues to increase, housing gets worse, we’re in for a super el Nino apparently this summer, and we apparently have enough money for the Aukus fiasco and the S3 tax cuts, but ‘we can’t afford everything ‘ when it comes to meaningful things that would actually help people

    It used to be you change the government and you change the country, used to be. Now we just get kissed before we get screwed

    The worst Part is that Albo sems to believe he’s doing good and the media (see the sickening articles by David Crowe and the bonge in the Saturday paper) are mostly on board.

    As Melbourne Mammoth said, under shit lite the country is just getting shittier more slowly than under the coalition

    Fully 1/3 of people voted for ‘someone else’ , expect that to grow

    Page Boi.
    I’m in the almost unique position of being the only bulk billing Private Practice Physician in the Village (ie Coffs). There is one other – an oncologist. In my case it’s because I’m a superannuated anarchosyndicalist hippy (after >35 years in the NSW Public Hospital system and 2 divorces), so I have a hobby practice instead of a hobby farm. It just about breaks even after I pay for the infrastructure support, but I don’t have to make a living. None of my GP or Specialist colleagues (except the oncologist) can afford to practice on Medicare alone & Coffs is pretty representative of regional Australia.
    I will continue to support the ALP (and particularly this Government), because their policies work better over time than any of those emerging from bleating of the overprivileged classes – be they shameless like the LNP or ashamed like the Greens.

  10. In return for receiving a significant amount of taxpayer dollars, private schools should be forced to keep and rehabilitate student troublemakers. They should not be permitted to toss out the students like rubbish, leaving public schools to be faced with the problem.

    It’s all about protecting the “reputation” of private schools and their ability to boast about high academic standards and attract funding from parents and taxpayers.

    Two students at Shore School have been suspended after a video emerged of a fight in a classroom, where one pupil was filmed using a table to physically attack a classmate.

    In a letter to parents, headmaster at the private boys’ school, John Collier, said the school had taken “decisive action” after the incident between a group of students last week, and that police would work with the school to “educate our students about the inappropriateness of violent behaviour”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/students-suspended-from-shore-school-over-classroom-fight-20230521-p5d9zq.html

  12. “They should not be permitted to toss out the students like rubbish, leaving public schools to be faced with the problem.”

    They don’t. There are arrangements for fresh starts at other private schools

  14. shellbell says:
    Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 7:54 pm
    “They should not be permitted to toss out the students like rubbish, leaving public schools to be faced with the problem.”

    They don’t. There are arrangements for fresh starts at other private schools

    I hadn’t thought of the existence of an ‘unwanted student exchange’.

  15. Pageboi
    But for actual progressives it’s not been great,

    To the uninitiated: “actual progressives” is code for “myself and my other Far Left mates”. Anybody to the right of Corbyn or Sanders or Bandt is reviled as “right wing” or “centrist” (oh no!).

    I am not going to throw myself on my katana blade because a bunch of socialists are disappointed in the Albanese government after 12 months. Albo has not fulfilled all their Marxist wet dreams. What a disaster!

    The previous nine years of LNP government were a disaster. rhwombat is correct: Labor policies work better over time.

  16. So the Nationalist vote came in greater than the Unionist Vote in the Council elections (as it did in the Assembly election). A rich irony that the Unionists are now a minority in their own made to specification statelet.

  17. “Labor policies work better over time”

    Its like a profession of faith – just over that hill somewhere on the horizon.

  18. President Biden on Sunday called on Republican lawmakers to compromise in ongoing budget and debt ceiling talks, warning that their current position is too extreme and cannot pass a narrowly divided Congress.

    Biden spoke to reporters from Hiroshima, Japan where he has been attending the Group of Seven (G7) Summit, and warned that he would not accept Republicans’ existing proposals as the U.S. inches closer to the risk of default.

    “Now it’s time for the other side to move from their extreme positions, because much of what they’ve already proposed is simply, quite frankly, unacceptable,” Biden said in opening remarks at a press conference.

    “I’m not going to agree to a deal that protects wealth tax cheats and crypto traders while putting food assistance at risk for nearly 1 million Americans,” Biden continued. “It is time for Republicans to accept that there is no bipartisan deal to be made solely on their partisan terms. They have to move as well. All four congressional leaders agree with me that default is not an option. And I expect each of these leaders to live up to that commitment.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4014053-biden-calls-on-gop-to-move-from-extreme-positions-in-debt-talks/

  19. LVT: “Its like a profession of faith ”

    You’re the god freaks. Objectively. God freaks don’t get to accuse people of blind faith.

  20. Close to 40% nationalist, 38% unionist but a bit artificial as some independents will identify with each community
    Unionists had 3 seats more than Nationalists but basically 40% each
    On the radical sides, the Progressive Unionists won 1 seat but leader Billy Hutchinson lost his seat to TUV. Aontú did not come close to a seat

  21. President Zelenskyy has hit the nail right on the head, again:
    ————————-
    Zelenskiy said he dreams of rebuilding “all our cities that are in ruins” similar to Hiroshima’s regeneration:

    “We dream of returning our territories just as we have regained our northern territories that were occupied by Russia, we must regain our eastern and southern territories. We dream of returning our people now in Russian captivity.
    We dream of peace after our victory.
    I am here in Hiroshima so the world can hear the Ukrainian call for unity. Russia has trampled on everything that is civilised.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-to-meet-biden-at-g7-kyiv-says-fighting-in-bakhmut-continues

    Perhaps the most shocking aspect of Russia’s approach to attacking Ukraine has been its completely gratuitous destructiveness. It is as if they do not want to actually conquer Ukraine, but to erase it and its people from the world.

  22. Why is nobody talking about action on Climate Change anymore?

    Hint: the ALP have introduced all of their election commitments on funding and promoting Green Energy, and more.

  24. In fact if you take the me, me, me whinging out of the picture – the 5 key achievements of Year 1 of the Albanese government are:

    – Action on Climate Change
    – Legislating a NACC, to commence in 6 weeks time
    – Restoring Australia’s diplomatic reputation
    – A short, sharp Royal Commission into the RoboDebt scandal
    – Lifting the wages of the working poor, including for Aged Care workers

  25. Sprocket

    “Hint: the ALP have introduced all of their election commitments on funding and promoting Green Energy, and more.”

    And it is already having an effect. Coal power plants are closing. Billions worth of RE projects are now in planning. The only real constraint now is required grid upgrades, that were deliberately stymied by Angus “The Gasman” Taylor.

  26. Oc, dont you think those independent voters would identify as nationalist or unionist to about the same extent as Albo identifies as catholic ie not very much at all.

    Its a secular world so how many of the 20% care which church grandad went to?

  27. rhwombat

    “Page Boi.
    I’m in the almost unique position of being the only bulk billing Private Practice Physician in the Village (ie Coffs). There is one other – an oncologist. In my case it’s because I’m a superannuated anarchosyndicalist hippy (after >35 years in the NSW Public Hospital system and 2 divorces), so I have a hobby practice instead of a hobby farm. It just about breaks even after I pay for the infrastructure support, but I don’t have to make a living. None of my GP or Specialist colleagues (except the oncologist) can afford to practice on Medicare alone & Coffs is pretty representative of regional Australia.
    I will continue to support the ALP (and particularly this Government), because their policies work better over time than any of those emerging from bleating of the overprivileged classes – be they shameless like the LNP or ashamed like the Greens.”

    Go you legend!!

  28. Socrates

    The energy grid upgrade is a non trivial matter, after years of Coalition privatisations. Try herding these cats…

    Distribution and transmission companies in Australia

    ACT – Evoenergy
    NSW – Essential Energy, Ausgrid, Endeavour Energy, TransGrid
    NT – Power and Water
    Qld – Energy Queensland, PowerLink
    SA – SA Power Networks, ElectraNet
    Tas – TasNetworks
    Vic – Powercor, Citipower, Jemena, AusNet Services, United Energy Distribution
    WA – Western Power, Horizon Power, Synergy

  29. Hope the catchup went well. Haven’t had time to read up PB today, but I didn’t see any headlines about a massive brawl and tasering of politics junkies today so assuming it didn’t go TOO badly.

  30. President Biden on Sunday said he believes he has the authority to use the 14th Amendment to unilaterally address the debt ceiling, but he acknowledged potential legal challenges could still lead the nation to default if he went that route.

    “I’m looking at the 14th Amendment as to whether or not we have the authority — I think we have the authority,” Biden told reporters at a press conference in Hiroshima, Japan. “The question is, could it be done and invoked in time that it would not be appealed, and as a consequence past the date in question and still default on the debt. That is a question that I think is unresolved.”

    Biden added that all four congressional leaders said in a recent White House meeting that they agreed the nation would not default, signaling that he hoped talk of the 14th Amendment would ultimately not be necessary. “So I’m assuming that we mean what we say and we’ll figure out a way to not have to default,” Biden said.

  31. sprocket_ @ #1122 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 8:54 pm

    Why is nobody talking about action on Climate Change anymore?

    Hint: the ALP have introduced all of their election commitments on funding and promoting Green Energy, and more.

    Because there is little hope left for genuine action from either major party?

    Just a wild guess.

  33. Labor is taking genuine action on climate change.

    Anyone who declares otherwise has a political agenda, or a hatred of the Labor party.

    Simple as that!

  34. Former Liberal Party director Tony Eggleton, who came to public prominence while serving as press secretary to Harold Holt during his disappearance, has died aged 91

  35. LVT
    One of the 19 elected independents (out of 462) left the SDLP a few months ago because Colum Eastwood is leading them to extinction. There may be others with a similar story.

    I guess we need to distinguish between real independents, who, in a municipal election are probably more concerned with garbage collection than the question of the national destiny, and those who have had a falling out with their party.

  36. Albo knows that Labor needs at least three terms to turn things around. He cannot afford to frighten the horses.
    Softly, softly catchee monkey.

  38. sprocket_ @ #1128 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 9:16 pm

    Socrates

    The energy grid upgrade is a non trivial matter, after years of Coalition privatisations. Try herding these cats…

    Distribution and transmission companies in Australia

    ACT – Evoenergy
    NSW – Essential Energy, Ausgrid, Endeavour Energy, TransGrid
    NT – Power and Water
    Qld – Energy Queensland, PowerLink
    SA – SA Power Networks, ElectraNet
    Tas – TasNetworks
    Vic – Powercor, Citipower, Jemena, AusNet Services, United Energy Distribution
    WA – Western Power, Horizon Power, Synergy

    Energy Queensland and PowerPoint are both (Qld) government owned corporations

  39. Sprocket, those three WA companies all belong to the State Government. Synergy is a retailer and Western Power operates the interconnected grid in the southern half of the state. Horizon Power operates the power networks in those localities too remote to be connected to the grid.

    Cave dwellers have far fewer grumbles about electricity issues than our eastern compatriots.

  41. Am hammered.

    Bludger Lunch has now descended into a hot mess. Neither my wife or mrs upnorth are are amused.

    We are fucked.

    However. Griff is going strong.

  45. South

    Patience my friend.

    Yes, time is the essence, but things will accelerate!

    Very confident the Beetaloo Basin will never happen as before the time it’s even started the business module will be blown out of the water by renewables and green hydrogen!

    Same as a lot of the so-called gas & coal planned projects.

    People stress too much me thinks!

  48. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 10:30 pm

    That’s no good. I sometimes think that anonymity’s desirable.

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 … 22 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *