The Age/Herald reports that the Resolve Strategic poll, from which budget response numbers were published on Tuesday, had strong results for Labor on voting intention, all but replicating the resounding Labor lead in the prevous poll a month ago. Labor was steady on the primary vote at 42%, with the Coalition up two to 30%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation down one to 5% and the United Australia Party up one to 2%. Resolve Strategic does not publish two-party preferred numbers, but I make this to be about 61-39 in Labor’s favour based on previous election preference flows, compared with 62-38 last time.
There are some rather quirky results in the breakdowns, including a lurch in favour of Labor in Victoria (what I reckon to be a two-party lead of about 66.5-33.5, out from 58-42 last time) and against it in Queensland (a lead of at most 51-49, compared with 60-40 last time). The poll also finds Labor doing slightly better among men than women, which is in contrast to Essential Research’s findings of a consistent gender gap in the opposite direction, in keeping with the conventional wisdom. However, Resolve Strategic’s finding was supported by the most recent aggregated demographic breakdowns from Newspoll, which had Labor leading 55-45 among men and 54-46 among women. All concerned find the Greens doing better among women than men.
The poll’s personal ratings record no change for Anthony Albanese, who remains at 56% in his combined very good and good rating and 29% for combined very poor and poor. Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 28% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 53-20, in from 55-21 last time.
Less happily for the government, the poll included a question on the Indigenous Voice that records the softest support of any credible poll to date, at odds with the near-simultaneous finding from Essential Research. It found 44% in favour (down two on a month ago), 39% opposed (up eight) and 18% undecided (down four), with a forced response follow-up recording 53% in favour and 47% opposed (58% and 42% last time). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1610 from Wednesday to Sunday.
The latest weekly Roy Morgan numbers suggest the slump it recorded in Labor support a fortnight ago to have been an anomaly – Labor now leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 54.5-45.5 last week and 53.5-46.5 the week before. The primary votes are Labor 36.5% (up one), Coalition 33.5% (down two) and Greens 13% (up half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday.
Dr Doolittle:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 1:58 pm
Thanks for that DD. C.19 is still with us but pubic reporting of it is not, perhaps due improved treatments. Zoomster, all the best.
No improved treatments yet for Longcovid.
phoenixRED:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 2:35 pm
Who is hosting Q&A on Monday ????
I think it’s Stan’s last stand.
This is gunna upset a few, and raises a few questions about where the money is.
“Damian from Brighton@damian_from · 6h
Labour was in debt before Corbyn became leader. He achieved the three highest annual incomes in the party’s history (2017-2019).
He paid off Labour’s debts, paid for two general elections and left £13.5m in the bank.
Starmer has squandered it all and Labour is now back in debt.”
Mavissays: Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 2:45 pm
I think it’s Stan’s last stand.
*********************************
TA Mavis :
Grant’s resignation comes less than a year after being made the permanent host of the network’s current affairs talk show Q+A. He has decided not to return after Monday evening’s program.
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/disgusting-abc-host-stan-grants-resignation-has-left-his-peers-shocked/news-story/d3227979af5d40036500c4a8ab33dd51
Happy Shindig Sydney bludgers.
I shall pop the screw top off a nice red in your honour. And remember, what happens on tour stays on tour – so no stories for the rest of us. We shall just make assumptions on who is drunk under the table, who is slamming their fist in anger into it, who is dancing naked on it and who is snogging who in the street afterward.
Team Katich:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 2:43 pm
I’m unsure. I have a rellie (41) who’s had it for around a year. He’s better now – and he’s no slacker – possibly as a result of the passage of time or his gene pool.
Good health to you zoomster
Mavis @ #708 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 2:45 pm
I think the vitriol directed to Stan Grant in general is over the top and in some cases just racist.
phoenixRED:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 2:56 pm
I feel for Grant: who knows what he’s been through? I’ve read that there were some 1000 complaints to Aunty after his coverage of an ancient ceremony, some twelve thousand miles away. I think that dear Eric Abetz may’ve orchestrated them.
Asha @ #697 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 1:39 pm
No, they’ve been either timid/spineless or just plain deliberately cruel with their right wing economic approach.
Circumstances are very different from a few years ago when they were taking policy positions. A good Govt would do the right thing rather than the popular thing. I’m afraid Albanese and his Govt are only interested in power for the sake of being in power for their donors.
Late Riser
This theory of everything podcast with Daniel Schmachtenberger does a deep dive into AI. Be warned it runs for 4 hours
https://youtu.be/g7WtcTATa2U
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/cultural-cancer-victorian-liberal-president-warns-of-demographic-time-bomb-20230521-p5da07.html
Vic Liberals’ President Greg Mirabella says “he had calculated the Liberals would have won five more seats if 200 people had switched their vote, and there were another five in which fewer than 1000 decided the outcome”.
Lets look at the margin of loss by the Liberals in the 5 closest seats.
Bass – they lost by 202 votes (So need 102 voters to vote the opposite).
Pakenham – lost by 307 (needed 154 voters to change)
Hastings – lost by 1,116 (need 557 voters to swap)
Ripon – lost by 2,435 (1218 voters to switch)
Glen Waverley – lost by 2,951 (1476 votes to flip)
Um…. seriously they can’t do basic mathematics in the Victorian Liberal party. Only two of those seats would have changed if 200 voters changed sides.
He is right in the bit about how stupid it is too look dysfunctional like they did yesterday and how it is political suicide to go down the hard Right path that some in their party want to take.
Guardian blog this arvo: flurry in Fadden.
“Nominations have closed for candidates wanting to take over from Stuart Robert as the LNP candidate for the Fadden byelection – but now there is a rush on to choose who will win the preselections.
“Candidates are being warned the preselection could be held as early as this Friday – 26 May. Why the rush? Because they are worried there could be a byelection called at any moment.
“We are hearing there are five candidates and the branch is split – so looks like there will be a bit of behind the scenes flurry this week”
B. S. Fairman:
“Um…. seriously they can’t do basic mathematics in the Victorian Liberal party.”
Joshie took the abacus when he moved out of his office.
Rex Douglas:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 3:07 pm
Mavis @ #708 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 2:45 pm
phoenixRED:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 2:35 pm
Who is hosting Q&A on Monday ????
I think it’s Stan’s last stand.
I think you’ve nailed it, Rex. I’m not sure he’s done the right thing by succumbing to the backlash. Goolagong-Cawley & Barty should take up the mantle. They have immense influence, but are they up to it? I doubt it.
The scourge of the poisonous pokies, vandalising heritage listed
buildings to shove more of the foul rotten-to-the-core devices in…
“‘Troubling in the extreme’: Demolition works stopped at historic pub”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/troubling-in-the-extreme-demolition-works-stopped-at-historic-pub-20230518-p5d9c3.html
Thanks for the warning, RP. And thanks for the link.
David Speers apparently will host Q&A from next week until the end of the year.
Player One
My partner asked me this morning “Can it really be a year since Labor won the election?”. I assured them it really was. We both then tried to think of what Labor had achieved so far.
We’re still trying.
Is the problem that you are simply unable to think?
Labor Government:
1. Budget SURPLUS
2. Stopped wasting money on rural electorates without a business case (e.g. on a whiteboard)
3. It legislated its emissions reductions targets of 43 per cent by 2030 and net zero by 2050, as well as tightening the safeguard mechanism that imposes emissions limits on the country’s 214 largest-polluting facilities.
4. Legislation to establish the new National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) also made it through parliament, with the NACC set to start from July 1.
5. Changes to child care and plans to gradually introduce more generous Paid Parental Leave have also passed.
That’s why the ALP has 3% more of the 2pp vote since the last election.
Shogun @ #1070 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 4:29 pm
Nope. Quite the opposite. Try this … https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-21/labor-government-first-year-in-review/102374198
Even the ABC is struggling to find much. I’ll accept the NACC even though we haven’t seen it yet, but when the only other significant policy accomplishment was actually a key COALition policy, and to pad it out to even more than two paltry paragraphs the only other things the ABC can find to menti0n are a couple of very minor policy tweaks and that Labor have “also delivered two budgets” (something which is required of any government) then I think it is reasonable to ask whether Labor are being ambitious enough.
Just being in government is not an achievement, despite what some here seem to think. You have to actually do stuff.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 3:13 pm
Circumstances are very different from a few years ago when they were taking policy positions. A good Govt would do the right thing rather than the popular thing. I’m afraid Albanese and his Govt are only interested in power for the sake of being in power for their donors.
The less the Apostasy and their Reactionary companions approve of Labor the better will it go for Albo and the Labor benches at the next election.
Hopefully Labor will go to the election offering further reform of income taxes, further development of the welfare net, further reform of taxes on property, further measures in the environment and further revision of foreign and defence policies.
I think Speers and Grant would be better if they switched roles fwiw. I think Speers is better as a moderator, and Grant is a better one on one interviewer.
Grant seems more intelligent sorry Mr Speers. He’s a big personality. I’m not really even a fan of his style, but it’s effective. He rephrases things well to push an investigative line of questioning. I don’t think that sometimes works with a q&a format. I also can’t imagine the abuse. It must be extremely difficult.
Player One
I’ll accept the NACC even though we haven’t seen it yet,
How magnanimous of you. I believe the passing of the NACC legislation was delayed by:
(1) The Greens and crossbenchers trying to introduce amendments – either withdrawn or defeated on the Senate floor.
(2) The death of Queen Elizabeth II (not something the Albanese government had any control over).
As for the rest of your post, I defer to Holdenhillbilly at 4:42 pm.
Shogun @ #1075 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 4:58 pm
Indeed. Not much of a list for some of the highest paid politicians in the world, is it?
ALP have achieved more in 1 year than Coalition did in 9.
They don’t control the Senate so there will be limitations on what they can pass.
Rex Douglas
I think the vitriol directed to Stan Grant in general is over the top and in some cases just racist.
I completely concur. Stan Grant provided a contrarian perspective on the Coronation. One could argue that his commentary was inappropriate to the occasion itself. But I cannot argue with its validity.
I would surmise that a great deal of the vitriol directed at Mr Grant came from individuals who (ironically) pride themselves as champions of free speech.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1077 Sunday, May 21st, 2023 – 5:20 pm
So you reckon Labor should lower the bar rather than raise their ambition?
Good plan.
Player One,
If you regard the Albanese gov’t achievements as not much, then you must think that the achievements of Morrison et al were woefully pitiful.
AI
The only variable is the level of hype. This time around the stratosphere is not a boundary.
I didn’t quite get BK’s cartoon this morning that displayed the books of Roth, Updike, and Bellow, with a young girl looking very interested, but with her boyfriend looking singularly unimpressed. Then it dawned on me: it was Roth’s “Portnoy’s Complaint” – a shocker in its day & banned here. Just shocking?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/feb/02/the-extraordinary-life-of-an-copy-of-portnoys-complaint-its-a-terrific-australian-story
Russians KIA May 20: 730 (180 scaled to US estimate)
Total Russians KIA: 203,160 (50,790 scaled to US estimate)
Daily average Russians KIA: 450.5 (112.6 scaled to US estimate)
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/21/7403145/
Slava Ukraïni! Heroiam slava!
Puffy,
Absolutely agree on the absolute dismal failure, of not only Morrison (but especially him), but the entirety of the ATM ‘lost decade’ years
The new ALP is miles better than what it replaced, but that’s an extremely low bar by almost any measure
I understand Albo not wanting to break promises etc, but I honestly think he’s misread the room, both before the election and now. Morrison had pissed off so much of the electorate I think Albo could have gone much harder on things like tax, equity, women’s issues etc and had a ‘mandate’ for it. People rightly just hated Morrison so the scare campaigns Labor were so worried about wouldn’t have worked
But now we’re left with a limp and timid government which in my view is breaking the most core promise of all – no-one left behind. Not only that it’s continuing much of the worst neoliberal bullshit that the coalition served up. Some examples
Work for the dole – not axed. Why? Not to mention all the other ‘mutual obligation’ nonsense where apparently all the obligation is on the unemployed with no reciprocal obligation to provide even a basic standard of living
Morrisons changes to uni fees for humanities
Continued approval and spruiking of coal and gas projects
Retaining the ‘basics card’ and actually seeking to expand ‘income management’ with the same company (Indue, a liberal party front) running it
Coalition climate policy (safeguards)
Coalition tax policy
Sure, the NACC is a good thing, as is reconstituting the AAT, aged care payrise, new industrial laws , actually submitting FOR a rise to the minimum wage and other good things
But for actual progressives it’s not been great, and the average punter isn’t getting much either (nor are the poor or students to be honest) . I think people actually voted for change, but what they’re getting is just incrementalism and less corruption, plus business as usual with major donors etc. If APPEA, the AIG and the BCA are all happy, then average Australians are still being shafted
For those who say the Albanese government has not achieved much in its first year, Labor governments will never have achieved enough.
I heard similar things said about the Whitlam government, which lasted just under three years, had to fight a forced mid-term election and had a resolutely hostile Senate, yet still managed to introduce free higher education, the first free universal health care scheme, the Family Law Court, increases to social security benefits and many other things I cannot list here.
Yet the cry from the likes of those who remind me of some of the posters here was always: what’s Labor ever done for us?
It will ever thus be, because some people want to justify their far-left fringy positions or their badly concealed conservatism, by constantly overlooking or downplaying what Labor does.
So don’t try convincing them with logical argument; they do not intend to be convinced and only want to engage in endless, pointless bickering.
The one thing that Labor has achieved is that compared to having a Coalition government, conditions for ordinary Australians will get worse more slowly.
@SHP,
So what has the Albanese government actually achieved? I mean you just cited Whitlam as an example, and he did FAR more than we’ve seen so far……
Housing – still fucked and no real solutions on offer
Medicare – dead in all but name
The environment – pitiful targets and most policies written or approved by the gas lobby
Poverty – bugger all but hey look a surplus
Cost of living- crumbs if you receive government payments, SFA otherwise
The yardstick I would use is is Australia a better country since the election of the new government. The answer to me is slightly…..
PageBoi says:
Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 6:13 pm
Sure, the NACC is a good thing, as is reconstituting the AAT, aged care payrise, new industrial laws , actually submitting FOR a rise to the minimum wage and other good things
But for actual progressives it’s not been great, and the average punter isn’t getting much either (nor are the poor or students to be honest) .
_________________________________________________________
At least you were good enough to say that what the Labor government has done are good things, but then you say “it’s not been great”. Those achievements you list are surely quite significant and have all been done in only one year.
Sure, I hope for better things in future too, particularly with regard to education, health care and more to be done on climate change. But you’ll only get them done with a Labor government.
And no Page Boi, Medicare is not dead, in name or otherwise. It needs more funding, which it received in the budget, and more reform. So thank your stars Labor is in government and stop overlooking genuine Labor achievements.
The greens won’t be satisfied until the LNP is in power. It justifies their existence. While they block social housing legislation in lock/goose-step with the LNP, they have no moral authority for anything.
Goodness, the lack of ambition seems to be as contagious as Covid-19!
I wonder if there is a vaccine?
Any survivors from lunch?
Late Riser
“ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKx0XwJAj3k”
—————————————-
Thanks for that link, one of the better videos on AI that I’ve seen. Rather than just identify professions that will be impacted, it began to identify exactly how those jobs will change, for good and bad. There are some great opportunities but also some real dangers.
When western countries try to reengage the “global South” one myth they should dispell is that an imperialist and expansionist Russia is somehow better for southern countries than friendships with western countries. It is not.
It is difficult to think of a single case of a country in the “global south” that has been altruistically helped by Russia. Quite the opposite. Russia is intervening in many place with no regard to local econ9mics, autonomy or civil rights. This story from Mali is the latest in a long line.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/20/russian-mercenaries-behind-slaughter-in-mali-village-un-report-finds
Medicare is dead, at least for me. I haven’t been to a GP since Covid, seriously. There isn’t a single GP in my region that bulk bills general patients, not one. The ‘game changing ‘ changes were only to the bulk billing ‘supplement’ which only applies to those under 16 or concession card holders. My youngest is now 16 and my wife and I both work full time, so the ALP just normalised a copayment for health care for us, which has been coalition policy for ages. Thanks Albo
Try and see a specialist? Yeah right, if you can afford it
On higher education, my 16yo son isn’t really sure what he wants to do but he has a keen interest in history and the humanities, but should he choose to go to uni then he’ll be left with a $50k plus millstone around his neck, thanks to scomos changes which the ALP are apparently fine with
But it’s all good, wait for the budget or the next election, apparently. Meanwhile the national share of income going to profits instead of wages continues to increase, housing gets worse, we’re in for a super el Nino apparently this summer, and we apparently have enough money for the Aukus fiasco and the S3 tax cuts, but ‘we can’t afford everything ‘ when it comes to meaningful things that would actually help people
It used to be you change the government and you change the country, used to be. Now we just get kissed before we get screwed
The worst Part is that Albo sems to believe he’s doing good and the media (see the sickening articles by David Crowe and the bonge in the Saturday paper) are mostly on board.
As Melbourne Mammoth said, under shit lite the country is just getting shittier more slowly than under the coalition
Fully 1/3 of people voted for ‘someone else’ , expect that to grow
Cronus: “There are some great opportunities ”
The law profession won’t know what hit them. Personally I’d like an AI that managed to traverse call centres and wait on hold to access support. I’d pay for that.
Pageboi: “Medicare is dead”
The LNP government fkd it yes. Not quite dead, but they gave it a red hot go. It is going to take some time to fix it. Prescription extension is a start. The damage of 10 years won’t be undone in one.
Did you complain about medicare when the LNP was in power? No. You did not. You attacked the ALP on climate change legislation. But the greens won’t be happy until the LNP is in power again so it can finally be dismantled.
Pageboi, I just underwent major surgery at RPA
, the best treatment, wonderful attention from superb people, not one cent out of pocket. Take your pathetic opinion and shove it up your godless arse.
Annual inflation
Venezuela: 430%
Lebanon: 264%
Argentina: 109%
Iran: 53.4%
Turkey: 43.68%
Pakistan: 36.4%
Sri Lanka: 35.3%
Ethiopia: 33.5%
Egypt: 30.6%
Hungary: 24%
Nigeria: 22.2%
Myanmar: 19.5%
Ukraine: 17.9%
Kazakhstan: 16.8%
Poland: 14.7%
Colombia: 12.82%
Sweden: 10.5%
United Kingdom: 10.1%
Chile: 9.9%
Algeria: 9.8%
Austria: 9.7%
Bangladesh: 9.2%
Italy: 8.2%
Morocco: 8.2%
Finland: 7.9%
Germany: 7.2%
Ireland: 7.2%
South Africa: 7.1%
Australia: 7%
Philippines: 6.6%
Norway: 6.4%
Mexico: 6.25%
France: 5.9%
Portugal: 5.7%
Belgium: 5.6%
Singapore: 5.5%
Denmark: 5.3%
Iraq: 5.26%
Netherlands: 5.2%
Israel: 5%
United States: 4.9%
What the hell with the insane message to China, pathetic, if Aukus was the capitulation and surrender that bit of stupidity is just bootlicking.
So deeply pathetic so deeply dumb.
Pageboi 6:55 pm
“ The worst Part is that Albo sems to believe he’s doing good and the media (see the sickening articles by David Crowe and the bonge in the Saturday paper) are mostly on board.”
————————————-
The only qualitative indicator we have are the polls and they seem to be consistently supportive of Albo and Labor too. The voters are happy it seems, they’re getting what they asked for and exactly what they were promised
WWP: “pathetic”
Is the greens foreign policy still the closure of all US military bases in Australian territory?