Essential Research and Resolve Strategic offer further numbers on budget polling, both tending to support Newspoll’s impression of a lukewarm response to the budget, and one — or possibly two, with Resolve Strategic to be confirmed — also supporting its finding of no discernible impact on voting intention.
What we have so far from Essential Research is a report in The Guardian relating that its 2PP+ measure of voting intention has Labor steady on 53% and the Coalition up one to 42%, with the remainder undecided; Anthony Albanese up three on approval to 54% and down two on disapproval to 35%; and Peter Dutton steady on approval at 36% and up one on disapproval to 45%. For primary votes will have to wait for the pollster’s publication of its full results later today.
The poll found 24% expecting the government would be good for them personally, which presumably had a corresponding result for bad that will also have to wait for the full report. Only limited numbers felt it would create jobs (33%), reduce debt (29%), reduce cost-of-living pressures (26%), whereas 46% felt it would “create long-term problems that will need to be fixed in the future”. Respondents were most likely to rate that the budget would be good for people receiving government payments and least likely to younger Australians and “average working people”.
There was also a forced response questions on the Indigenous Voice and a republic, the former finding the margin from yes in to 59-41 from 60-40 a month ago, with small state sub-samples finding recording big leads in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, but an even balance in Queensland and Western Australia. The republic question, which apparently left the devil undetailed, broke 54-46 in favour. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1080.
The Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald, which will presumably follow up with voting intention results fairly short, seemingly produced the most favourable results for the budget, with 31% saying it would be good for them and their household compared with 26% for bad; 44% good for the country with 17% for bad; 36% good for the health of the economy with 15% for bad; and 39% good for “rebuilding a healthy budget” with 17% for bad. Similarly to Essential Research, it found respondents were most likely to see the budget as good for the less fortunate and disadvantaged, with 56% for good and 14% for poor, but it substantially more positive results for both older people (48% good and 17% bad) and younger people (39% and 17%).
Respondents were asked about twelve specific items in the budget, finding majority support for all but two: limiting growth in NDIS spending to 8% a year, which still recorded a net positive result with 37% in favour and 17% opposed, and facilities for the Brisbane Olympics and Tasmanian AFL, which were supported by 27% and opposed by 37%. The most popular measure was the spending on Medicare to encourage bulk billing, at 81% in favour and 5% opposed, with funding for a wage increase for aged care workers, energy bill relief and doubling of medicine prescription periods recording between 73% and 75% support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1610.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research voting intention numbers are here and the full report here. The former’s primary votes are very strong for Labor, suggesting the static 2PP+ numbers relied on a change in respondent-allocated preferences: Labor are up two 35%, the Coalition are down one to 31%, the Greens are steady on 14%, One Nation are steady on 5% and the United Australia Party is down one to 1%. Further, the report allows comparison of the budget response with five budgets going back to 2020, which makes the numbers look better than at first blush. Twenty-four per cent for “good for you personally” is about par for the course; the 41% and 37% for “good for people on lower incomes” and “good for older Australians” are comfortably the strongest results out of five budgets going back to 2020; 46% for “place unnecessary burdens on future generations” is the best result of the five.
Socrates @ #81 Tuesday, May 16th, 2023 – 10:13 am
I understand that is happening or about to happen for new estates in Victoria.
However some level of backup is required. Community batteries????
We had our electric power cut off for much of the day a week ago for maintenance work. Cold wet day.
No heating, no lights, we have a gas cooktop so we could still boil water or cook.
We got out for the day as our solar panels did not help much.
Team Katich @ #66 Tuesday, May 16th, 2023 – 9:45 am
That’s a bit harsh. Depending on the type of battery there may not be a button they can just press to have it start discharging to the grid. The Tesla Powerwall can’t do that in a user-initiated way, certainly.
Usually for grid discharge you need not just a ToU plan but also to join a VPP where the retailer/network operator gets to control if/when your battery feeds power back into the grid. Usually in exchange for some paltry fixed monthly credit that inadequately reflects both the value of the energy being fed in and the added hassle of signing up with the VPP.
You want people to hand over their stored energy for the public good? Make it easy and attractive to do so.
Even better, require that new EV’s support V2L so that the car is the house battery. Then all the people with wall-hanging batteries will start to look pretty silly.
AAP article in Canberra times (unpaywalled):
According to Kos Samaras – 22% of renters vote Greens.
You would think increasingly losing that youth demographic is not good for Labor – but it seems Labor’s hatred for the Greens is blinding.
Max Chandler-Mather has been very effective. His posts and speeches get hundreds of thousand views. Labor or Liberal MP’s would kill for similar social media presence.
Lars Von Trier
Max Chandler-Mather has been very effective. His posts and speeches get hundreds of thousand views.
So did Jeremy Corbyn.
LVT
“Max Chandler-Mather ….”
Who?
Donald Trump gets a lot of views too but I suppose that to certain people that just reinforces that views are the thing that proves how good a government is.
From the ABC site
“The Real Estate Institute of Australia said investment properties were the first to drop off the portfolio of someone struggling to meet their lending commitments.
“Most landlords have got two mortgages — the house they live in, and the house that they’ve invested in — and we are finding a higher proportion of landlords currently selling because they just can’t manage two lots of repayments,” deputy president Leanne Pilkington said.
“Across a number of our members, we’re seeing 10 to 15 per cent of their landlords selling. It used to be below 10 per cent.”
I do hope this isn’t an attempt to elicit sympathy.
Lars Von Trier,
Like all of us screaming into the void on PB.
Who’s mind is he actually changing with his rants.
Remember, Friendlyjordies hates the greens and rightly points out that they exist in the most wealthy electorates in the nation. And that guy easily cracks 300K views a video.
Speaking in Melbourne, Mr Albanese criticised Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather for his attacks on proposed new housing developments in Queensland’s capital.
Why is PM Albanese so angry at Max Chandler-Mather? I am sure Max Chandler-Mather wants more social housing – just not in his electorate. Makes perfect sense. These people are not the kind of people Max Chandler-Mather wants in his neighbourhood. I mean… have you seen these people? They do not even eat quinoa!
”
citizensays:
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 11:18 am
AAP article in Canberra times (unpaywalled):
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has taken aim at the Greens for blocking Labor’s $10 billion housing fund while opposing new developments, saying they “can’t have it both ways”.
Speaking in Melbourne, Mr Albanese criticised Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather for his attacks on proposed new housing developments in Queensland’s capital.
“One of the things that I find remarkable is at the same time as the Greens are blocking additional support for social housing, they’re also running petitions of their housing spokesperson to block … development of more housing supply in Brisbane, ” Mr Albanese told reporters on Tuesday.
“You can’t have it both ways.”
Mr Chandler-Mather, who holds the Brisbane seat of Griffith, has joined community residents in opposing proposals to build new apartment buildings, including the Bulimba Barracks site.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8197211/protesting-greens-cant-have-it-both-ways-albanese/?cs=14264&https://beta.canberratimes.com.au/news/latest-news/
”
This Greens political party Senator is Housing policy spokesperson.
Greens political party blocked Government’s Housing policy because they thought enough houses are not built Labor government policy. They want 1 million public houses to be built by the end of the decade i.e. in next 7 years. But their spokesperson doesn’t want more houses to be built in Brisbane especially in his constituency.
Have you seen a breathtakingly more hypocritical person than him and he is still aged in his 30s.
Is a measure of Chandler-Mather’s effectiveness the attacks upon his person? Both Albo and Penny Wong have been absolutely O.T.T in the vitriol directed at him.
Suggests he’s cutting Labor’s panini for lunch.
It may also be his take on the housing crisis is correct.
”
Cronussays:
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 11:34 am
From the ABC site
“The Real Estate Institute of Australia said investment properties were the first to drop off the portfolio of someone struggling to meet their lending commitments.
“Most landlords have got two mortgages — the house they live in, and the house that they’ve invested in — and we are finding a higher proportion of landlords currently selling because they just can’t manage two lots of repayments,” deputy president Leanne Pilkington said.
“Across a number of our members, we’re seeing 10 to 15 per cent of their landlords selling. It used to be below 10 per cent.”
I do hope this isn’t an attempt to elicit sympathy.
”
Cronus
Isn’t percentage increase in landlords selling their investment properties good for our “housing crisis”?
That’s Max in the middle – no social housing in my backyard
Here’s the chance for some of you to stand up and be counted.
https://www.maxchandlermather.com/housingpetition
Have the goll to be the change you wish to see in the world.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 11:46 am
Is a measure of Chandler-Mather’s effectiveness the attacks upon his person? Both Albo and Penny Wong have been absolutely O.T.T in the vitriol directed at him.
Suggests he’s cutting Labor’s panini for lunch.
It may also be his take on the housing crisis is correct.
”
No it is not. He is the biggest hypocrite living that side of Brisbane river. And that says something. These people living in leafy suburbs are gullible, aren’t they? They are duped by the likes of Max Hyphen.
Read my @11:46am post.
You want people to hand over their stored energy for the public good? Make it easy and attractive to do so.
——————————
So I completely agree with the second part. That is the point I am trying to make. The retail plans don’t make it easy or tempting. As for the mechanics – I am surprised the batteries aren’t reasonably easy to put power into the grid when you want to. It certainly is easy for the retailers to do it remotely.
The first part….. the idea that gov subsidies to wealthy people to buy batteries and panels and generous guaranteed long term FiT (for example) seem a good way to get the early adopters in and leverage their money as well. But it isn’t very socially just – your average joe hasn’t seen their bills reduce because of these subsidies but the early adopters certainly have. Then there is the issue of efficiency. Would the subsidies have been better off put into grid scale large batteries, community batteries or even generation?
Le sigh.
Like, I get what he means. The Greens are demanding more social housing while simultaneously petitioning against it. Fair enough.
But the way he’s phrased that, there’s no contradiction. He omitted the subtext about why the Greens are blocking social housing legislation, which just leaves a complaint that the Greens are 1) blocking social housing, and also 2) blocking social housing. There’s no “both ways” about it.
The Lars Team ™ wants us to sign Max’s petition to stop social housing, which is very much in character..
Given the ‘mean’ personal attacks from Labor led by Senator Wong last week, it’s clear Max Chandler-Mather is cutting through with young people.
I see Albo’s focus group has clearly been advising him to also go hard on MC-M.
I think we all sense that Labor has no option but to blink on the housing bill.
Good to see you’re getting your mojo back sprocket. We know ur happiest re posting Labor propaganda and pictures of fat Tories (not necessarily in that order)
We were worried about you last week and last night.
Rex , sprocket has already prophesised that the housing bill would become a double dissolution trigger.
We’ve counselled him about his penchant for predictions but he keeps making them.
Extraordinary evidence at the Lehrmann trial investigation…
It is wonderful to see Dutton’s little helpers busy helping the Greens.
Same old, same old.
It is wonderful to see Dutton’s little helpers busy helping the Greens.
Bad faith runs broad and deep.
Same old, same old.
The widely watched Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index dived 7.9 per cent this month, after the RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85 per cent, and the federal government delivered relatively modest cost-of-living relief in its budget last week.
“The index has fallen back to just above the dismal levels seen back in March, which recorded the lowest monthly read since the COVID outbreak in 2020 and, before that, since the deep recession of the early 1990s,” noted Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans. Confidence was weaker for those surveyed after the budget, the report noted, although this was quite normal.
“For 2023, 15.5 per cent of those surveyed after the budget expected it to improve their finances and 27 per cent expected to be worse off,” Mr Evans explained. “Viewed against history, the 2023 ‘gap’ of 11.5 per cent is much less unfavourable than that of the previous budget in October (28 per cent) and is only bettered by one budget in the 2010-19 period.”
However, the RBA’s move to raise interest rates in May — when most analysts expected them to stay on hold, and some even tipped that the cash rate had peaked at 3.6 per cent — clearly shattered confidence.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-16/consumer-confidence-down-amid-generational-inflation-battle/102350772
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/16/budget-polling-essential-research-and-resolve-strategic-open-thread/comment-page-3/#comment-4111381
The way shit lite major party are going (say climate disruption, public health, inequality/ (social) housing, let alone powershift, governance), forget commies or (salon) socialists or libs lite, with aspirations to be full of shit, if not all shit or shite like fascists or theocrazies, they will be following full of shit as further voters go minor parties and independents
Re Electricity Prices. My latest Bill, to 3 May.
Note off peak 10.2 cents per kwh. Any time 20.28 cents per kwh.
I don’t know why it has not gone up.
This is addressed to Eastern suburbs Lars
As per the profile posted by you (ofcourse all this could be a fascade and lie)
You live Sydney Eastern suburbs because you voted in Wentworth electorate.
You are in your mid forties
You drive BMW
You get the full tax cut from S3 tax cuts i.e. the full $9000. Hence you must be earning over $200000
You don’t attack PwC for its outrageous behaviour and shady operations.
My query is do you work for PwC? 🙂
Chief negotiator Peter Riordan on Tuesday released the federal government’s pay offer for Australian Public Service employees. The full breakdown includes four per cent in the first year, 3.5 per cent in the second year and three per cent in the third year. “The Australian government is committed to providing APS employees with fair and equitable conditions of employment through genuine APS bargaining,” a statement said.
Shogun says:
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 11:45 am
Speaking in Melbourne, Mr Albanese criticised Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather for his attacks on proposed new housing developments in Queensland’s capital.
Why is PM Albanese so angry at Max Chandler-Mather? I am sure Max Chandler-Mather wants more social housing – just not in his electorate. Makes perfect sense. These people are not the kind of people Max Chandler-Mather wants in his neighbourhood. I mean… have you seen these people? They do not even eat quinoa!
中华人民共和国
I think his biggest gripe against Public Housing in Griffith is that the clients will most probably not have Hyphenated names.
SA Labor not shy or secretive about their heartfelt relationship with fossil fuel oil and gas…
Rex Douglas
I think we all sense that Labor has no option but to blink on the housing bill.
I am curious about who “we all” are? Do you have lice?
Shogun says:
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 12:26 pm
Rex Douglas
I think we all sense that Labor has no option but to blink on the housing bill.
I am curious about who “we all” are? Do you have lice?
中华人民共和国
P1 often uses it too. I think it’s more a “Royal” we. I mean we mere social housing supporting plebs with un-hyphenated names are simply an I.
Meanwhile, according to The Australian, Scott Morrison has been searching for a post-politics job but was disappointed when PwC, of all people, rebuffed his approach, saying that he would have brought an unacceptable level of reputational risk to the firm. Priceless!
————————————–
LOL this is seriously funny when you remember Liberal politicians see PwC types as their friends.
Lars Von Trier @ 11.54am
“Have the goll to be the change you wish to see in the world.”
Goodness, an obsession,
Bless!
I cannot think of any bottom dwelling parasitic company in Canberra that would see having ScoMo on board as being anything but a reputational risk. If it doesn’t involve a pentecostal Church appointment or a pre-arranged kickback deal I can’t see where he’d get a job post politics.
Upnorth
P1 often uses it too. I think it’s more a “Royal” we. I mean we mere social housing supporting plebs with un-hyphenated names are simply an I.
Yes this makes sense. As a lowly Pleb myself (with an un-hyphenated name) I am unfamiliar with the personal pronouns of Patricians.
Ven 11:50 am
“Cronus
Isn’t percentage increase in landlords selling their investment properties good for our “housing crisis”?
Seems like it to me.
I’m going to defend PwC not because they deserve it but because whenever government displays poor standards it leaves itself open to be taken for a ride so the government brought this on themselves and the fact they rejected Morrison is the icing on the cake.
“I am curious about who “we all” are? Do you have lice?”
I don’t know in context I thought it was pretty clear ‘we all’ means thinking people who have a basic understanding of the functioning of the Australian Parliament, but your guess about lice was a good guess too.
I would have thought that the climate science denialists in various state/fed Labor Govts would be much smarter than providing such low hanging fruit for people actually concerned about climate change …?
“Given the ‘mean’ personal attacks from Labor led by Senator Wong last week, it’s clear Max Chandler-Mather is cutting through with young people.”
I mean, if that’s the bar, given the incandescent-rage level of downright nasty personal attacks from the Greens led by Senator McKim and Mr Bandt over the past several months, it’s clear that the entire ALP government is cutting through and the Greens have no option but to blink on the housing bill….
Maybe if the Greens had a focus group it would tell them – more housing good, more opposition to housing bad, more navel-gazing about whether their level of censorship of internal debate needs to be turned up from “Putin” to “Xi” really bad.
If perception is reality, Max Chandler-Mather has a major problem with hypocrisy on his own issue of significance.
And still no boost in the polls for Greens either it seems.
Team Katich @ #118 Tuesday, May 16th, 2023 – 11:57 am
Today? Probably, yes.
Back when the guaranteed-for-life high feed-in rate was still accessible to new entrants? I’m not sure; were grid-tied batteries even a thing back then? My panels went up in 2013, and I didn’t get any such subsidy. Might be that of those options only “generation” was possible back when the subsidy was running. Which would then depend on the type of generation. Renewables sure, anything else no.
Resources Minister Madeleine King King will tell the conference on Tuesday that changes announced in the federal budget “bring to a close” the review of the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) begun by Scott Morrison when he was treasurer.
The cap on tax deductions on offshore projects in Australian waters will raise an extra $2.4 billion over the next four years, which critics say is too modest considering gas company profits have tripled.
More than 2000 delegates are in Adelaide for the largest oil and gas conference in the southern hemisphere as governments try to balance producer demands and cost of living pressures. Gas prices are crippling local manufacturers and households but new powers will be in effect this winter to manage the risk of further east coast supply shortfalls.
King will invite members of the industry to contribute to a Future Gas Strategy that will “balance energy security with affordability and investment certainty”. The federal government also plans to provide regulatory certainty for offshore carbon capture and storage projects, after the United States provided strong incentives for investment. Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) chair Meg O’Neill said the world is urgently seeking safe, reliable and affordable energy. She congratulated the minister for announcing the development of a “realistic” strategy that would outline the ongoing role of gas in the energy transition, including the development of new gas fields.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/05/16/oil-and-gas-part-of-the-solution-towards-net-zero-emissions/
“I’m going to defend PwC not because they deserve it ”
I still think with the Peter Collin’s stuff they were a bit unlucky, I find it impossible to believe that KPMG, EY and Deloitte weren’t doing much the same thing.
Now I’m not alleging any breach of a confidentiality agreement, but a well known law firm was on the phone to me every second day during the development of one piece of law where basically the whole discussion was ‘Treasury says x’, ‘Treasury isn’t sure about W because everyone involved in the initial drafting has left”, “Treasury is working through issue P, but we don’t expect Q”. “We are meeting with Treasury tomorrow, do you want us to raise Y?”
It is just they way the develop law. And no it never seemed a good way for Treasury to develop law but they just never had the staff to do it without reference to the expertise in the firms and even in industry. But as Swanny learnt with the Super Profits Tax that never was, one should be very careful in taking advice from the affected industry.
It always seemed incredibly normal.
“Resources Minister Madeleine King King will tell the conference on Tuesday that changes announced in the federal budget “bring to a close” the review of the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) begun by Scott Morrison when he was treasurer”
That seems a little well symbolic and short of the mark.
A former employee of Rudy Giuliani said in a new lawsuit filed Monday that he told her he was attracted to another woman who worked for him who was 20-years-old, and that he had kissed her on the lips.
Noelle Dunphy, who says she worked for Giuliani for two years, filed a civil lawsuit against him in Manhattan on Monday, accusing him of rape and of forcing her to engage in sexual acts as part of her job. Dunphy claimed Giuliani demanded she perform oral sex while he made calls on speaker phone, including to then-President Donald Trump.
The lawsuit said that during the two years Dunphy worked for Giuliani, starting in January 2019, while he was Trump’s lawyer, Giuliani often made crude comments about women as well as racist and homophobic remarks. Giuliani was not representing Trump in legal matters in mid-February 2021. A spokesperson for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In one conversation in November 2019, Giuliani told Dunphy he was in love with three or four women and that he had “a certain sexual attraction to” his 20-year-old staffer Christianne Allen, the lawsuit claimed. Giuliani told Dunphy he had fantasized about Allen and kissed her on the lips but that he did not “consummate” the relationship, according to the lawsuit. The lawsuit also claims this conversation was recorded.
https://www.businessinsider.com/rudy-giuliani-attracted-to-20-year-old-employee-kissed-lawsuit-2023-5
“ According to Kos Samaras – 22% of renters vote Greens.
You would think increasingly losing that youth demographic is not good for Labor – but it seems Labor’s hatred for the Greens is blinding.
Max Chandler-Mather has been very effective. His posts and speeches get hundreds of thousand views. Labor or Liberal MP’s would kill for similar social media presence.”
_____
So, even though the Greens apparently dominate in their political support base from the under 40s, who in turn dominate the rental market, FOUR out of FIVE renters vote for ‘anyone but The Greens’.
The Greens underperforming. Much?