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Saturday morning
If I understand the situation correctly, yesterday saw only check counts conducted of votes that had already been reported on the initial count – the check count results will not be published in the media feed, which is the source of the data in my results system and those of other media outlets, and have not yet been published on the Electoral Commission system either. However, Antony Green reports checking unearthed a fairly substantial error at the Mittagong Public School booth in Wollondilly, discovery of which has boosted independent candidate Judy Hannan’s lead by 450 votes and dispelled any lingering doubt as to whether she will win.
Tomorrow, entirely new batches of postal, absent and enrolment/provisional votes will be counted and added to the media feed – the expected number of which and the order in which they will be conducted by seat are available here. As before, these will include two-candidate preferred results for the postal votes, but not for the absents and enrolment/provisionals.
Friday morning
A fresh post on the New South Wales election count, the earlier instalment of which can be found here. The Electoral Commission spent today tackling absents and enrolment/provisional reasons — for whatever reason, it only counts primary votes during the first of the two counts it conducts of these votes, so we will be flying blind on this front for the time being at least. The additions to the count yesterday were not huge (and there was no progress at all in Oatley or Pittwater) — the absent vote tallies noted below accounted for at most around a quarter of what’s likely to be their total, and absents have a way of varying from batch to batch depending on where they come from.
I haven’t been following the upper house count, but I’m told that here too things are improving for the Liberals, meaning a likely result of Labor eight, Coalition seven, Greens two and one apiece from One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers, resulting in a chamber in which the left and right have 21 seats apiece.
Holsworthy. No one’s holding out much hope for Labor here, with a 526 vote Liberal lead before yesterday’s additions and postals likely to widen it decisively. Labor would have clawed back about 50 votes on yesterday’s 766 formal absents, but they gained little advantage on the 263 enrolment/provisionals.
Ryde. Labor leads by 235 on the two-party count, which doesn’t include today’s 949 absents, on which I imagine they would have gained about two dozen, and 708 enrolment/provisionals, which broke pretty evenly. Labor’s gain on absents was rather weak in swing terms, which may be because they come from a relatively strong area for the Liberals. If not, the odds on the Liberals chasing Labor down on the many thousands of outstanding postals (2064 have been counted and the NSWEC has received nearly 9000 of them) will have shortened.
Terrigal. I would estimate that Labor gained about 40 on 839 absents and 90 on 670 enrolment/provisionals, but here too the swings to them were relatively weak, which reduces the chances of them wearing down a 237-vote Liberal lead that will surely increase on outstanding postals, of which the Electoral Commission has received 5288 and counted 615. If Labor has a hope, it’s that the remaining absents come from stronger areas and that postals sent closer to election day are more favourable to them than the earlier ones.
Wollondilly. Today’s additions were modest in number, but Judy Hannan did remarkably badly on the 305 absents, scoring only 37 (12.1%) to the Liberals’ 103 (33.8%) and failing to improve on her performance in 2019. I suspect these came from a weak and probably rural area for her, but they nonetheless fortify me in my decision to not call it for her yet despite her 1350 lead on the two-candidate count.
The recent one term state/ territory governments were
Victoria – Lib/nats
N.T – CLP
QLD – LNP
S.A -Lib
Voters seem to give labor state/territory government minimum 3 terms , that trend will unlikely to change particular if the lib/nats combined primary vote is struggling to get over 40%
prity disapointing people are poasting anti labor rubish tor party spin to detract from a win people defect from political parties all the timeperottit only became premier because of a deal with kean becoming treasurer
Aaron please have some respect for South Kingswood branch’s esteemed fireman.
Did he stand in preselection against Bradbury? (I had left the area by 2001)
He certainly stood against that ornament of the NSW Right, Cathy O’Toole in 1998 and missed out because of the quota.
Dont discard a by-election in Epping coming in the near future
If Gladys ICAC result turns out to be not what the lib/nats wanted
Labor a chance to gain another seat there ?
Evan,
The Liberals ALWAYS spend big on postal vote campaigns. I’ve been told that people think it makes them feel seen to have a postal vote with a nice letter from the local Liberal MP attached to it, arrive in their letter box. Cynical but effective for them.
And you could see how effective at the last federal campaign, when the federal Labor Party put a lot of effort into the postal vote campaign for once.
Scott: The seat of Epping takes in heavy Liberal voting areas of Beecroft and Cheltenham, no way they’ll swing to Labor, ever. The talk today is Natalie Ward will move from the Upper House to contest Epping for the Libs when Dom predictably leaves politics.
Aaron newton @ #152 Saturday, April 1st, 2023 – 2:57 pm
As you can see from Oakeshott Country’s latest post bringing up crap from 2001!
Evan says:
Saturday, April 1, 2023 at 3:02 pm
Scott: The seat of Epping takes in heavy Liberal voting areas of Beecroft and Cheltenham, no way they’ll swing to Labor, ever. The talk today is Natalie Ward will move from the Upper House to contest Epping for the Libs when Dom predictably leaves politics.
—————————————————–
Maybe but there was a big swing against Perrottet though ,
Will Dom take over Dallas Macinerney’s job when he leaves politics? 🙂
Quite right OC.
Blessed is the memory of the Fireman.
Here’s one for you Evan.
How can it be that someone like Dr Hugh McDermott is not in the Ministry? Labor insiders like wranslide and Andy the R@t have acknowledged his very strong case for promotion.
Aaron gives the game away saying he is “disliked by his colleagues”.
What happened in Upper Hunter. It was on 0.5%. Total flop by Labor there.
michael @ #162 Saturday, April 1st, 2023 – 3:31 pm
Isn’t that the seat that Jodi McKay got rolled for not winning?
Minns better watch his back!
Minns probably needs 4 Geoff Shaws to be in trouble.
there will be 7 seats under 52 on the Lib side. yes it would be great to have won them all. but mathematically impossible from a resource point of view. and you have to factor in what your opponent does to sandbag them, maybe the Libs ran better campaigns in some places than others.
winning some seats you didn’t except to win and missing out on others down the pendulum, it’s an occupational hazard
everyone runs a perfect campaign in hindsight
personally I thought the Labor campaign pretty safe and often almost invisible. but I live in the inner west.
oh well
Michael, ambition is the combustible fuel which both drives and destroys political parties. There is a lot of kindling in the NSW ALP which will ignite in the right circumstances.
Player One
Minns better watch his back!
Upper Hunter has always been a National Party (or Country Party) held seat. Labor has never won it.
You are as giddy as a schoolgirl, and you obviously love your gossip. But if you really want to tittle-tattle, at least find something fact-based to work with.
Upper Hunter has never been won by Labor. Its margin was only close because the previous sitting member was scandal-plagued.
larz as a liberal insider wonder who will become liberal opposition leader given the best option matt kean likely pulled out iva because he did not want 2 gb to attack him who have they got the little know henskins who no body has heard o dought wqard will get eping she is in upper house lives in manley and tried to run in davidson surelyGibbins corear is now finished will Scott farlow still get mclaron jones uper house vackintsy f
It was Jeff Shaw BTW
[‘Labor will lead NSW with a minority government after the tallying of thousands of postal votes on Saturday confirmed two key seats had been retained by the Liberals.
By early Saturday afternoon, the counting of ballots received by mail in Terrigal, on the Central Coast, and Holsworthy, in Sydney’s south-west, confirmed both seats would remain Liberal held, meaning Premier Chris Minns’ government cannot win the 47 seats required for a majority.
By Saturday afternoon, seven days after polls closed in last week’s state election, Labor had won 45 seats, the Coalition had 35 seats (24 Liberal and 11 National), the Greens had retained its three seats and nine electorates had voted for independent candidates.
Just one electorate remained in doubt: the northern Sydney seat of Ryde where the local Liberal member, former customer service minister Victor Dominello, has retired.
The seat was considered a Labor gain on election night but has since been moved into the too-close-to-call category after additional counting suggested the swing away from the Liberals was not as large as originally assumed.’] – SMH.
It matters not. Three independents have guaranteed confidence & supply and with the three Greens, Labor, short of a disaster, will govern NSW for the next four years. Minority governments will, I think, become the norm, even federally, the old paradigm of the two party system, now appears unfashionable.
Lars agree everyone has ambition these days.
But Labor would have to drop back to about 41 votes/and the Coalition up to 41 votes to make the independents think about things.
The Liberal MPs who have successfully sandbagged their seats this time won’t have the infrastructure gains to campaign on in 4 years time, Minns certainly won’t be handing out freebies to Ryde, Terrigal, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Oatley etc.
The two big winners from this Government will be the west of Sydney and the South Coast of NSW, with the exception of Kiama.
And Cronulla and Manly, you won’t get new football stadiums.
Shogun @ #167 Saturday, April 1st, 2023 – 4:19 pm
LOL! You might want to tell that to Jodi McKay. I’m sure she’d appreciate your wit and wisdom.
Wrong again Evan.
It would be extremely foolish of a minority govt to try and skew spending . That’s ICAC and maladministration territory if you try to do that.
The sharks have been rebuilding their stadium for the past few years
I suspect the penrith stadium is assured
Agree that Mavis.
I thought this article from The Saturday Paper was interesting about the NSW election campaign.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2023/04/01/hes-not-bambi-how-the-liberals-lost-nsw
This section in particular caught my attention.
I wonder if they’re keeping that “information” in reserve for 2027, and whether or not it’ll be effective.
When someone goes against NSW Labor like Latham, OC, Lars and P1 they really hate them. Don’t they?
Nothing Liberals and Nationals did in the last 12 years changes their mind. No turning back for them irrespective of what LNP did.
Didn’t Latham once said something to that affect?
Either way, this is probably the result I expected in my gut. Despite the swing in votes, only 7 seats flipped from Coalition to Labor. The pendulum was just that lopsided, which was how I felt after seeing the result of the 2019 election. The final Newspoll gave me optimism of at least 10 seats, but that wasn’t to be.
Oh well. Again, support from the crossbench should hopefully make this still a functional Labor government, with Labor MP’s taking over the cabinet and ministries and being held to account to be a good government from both houses. That at least should wipe the grins off the faces of the Coalition, which really rankled me when I heard them cackling over the dinner table like villains from Captain Planet or Dr. Evil’s henchmen about how much corruption they can get away with from the Barilaro leaks provided by Friendlyjordies.
Some great whataboutism from Ven – worthy of Sprocket
Contrast betwen Adam Crouch and Sam Boughton in their respective statements today re. Terrigal – Sam Boughton pays tribute to his opponent, Adam Crouch says nothing about his opponent and assures us he’ll be “getting his fair share” for his electorate over the next 4 years and he’s mates with David Harris, the MP for Wyong.
Says a lot really!
And as a mate of mine in the electorate said to me, Crouch only cares about the Terrigal end of the seat, he does nothing for Kincumber(that’s where the swing against him came from pretty much).
In response to Lars – sure, Minns will fund health and education and basic services across all electorates, but I doubt he’ll be fulfilling campaign promises of Liberal MPs in seats they barely held on to this time.
if it was clements and china well they tried that and kean and his friend Chris rath going negative did not help liberals any way so in stead of matt kean who was the only reason they heldon toa number of his seats with him protending to be progresive funy thing is kean going on about minns coming from the labor machine apart from pwc consultint kean wasN s wyung liberals vice president a staffer to two liberal mps and worked his way up through liberal machine plus the only dirt this election came from the libs kean would be unhappy perottit got rid of keans former senyor advisor peter poulos from the upper house ticket after the preston aligations
at th e time hepoulos was working in keans office as a senyor advisor both rath and poulos defected from thehard right to moderit
That said, I do feel pretty unhappy about there being 12 ‘too close to call’ seats at the end of election night last week and then proceed to watch pretty much all of them go against Labor in the following week. That feels bitter, and I hope they learn some lessons about it before 2027.
This is the worst “whittling” that I can remember. Not only did all of the election night “doubtfuls” break the wrong way but seats thought won were sucked back into the Dark Side.
so robberts would have little apeel he is one of the most conservative liberals kean would be the obveous choice so going kean and rath tried to go negative with the campaign thatminns was a pupit of the unions sensably perottit never ingeged maybi if haris is friendly whiywith the liberals maybi this is whiy he has been a uselis shadow minister donnoly probaly has a lot of liberal friends especialy the hard right hhas sedgreaves conseded camden yet
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, April 1, 2023 at 5:09 pm
The sharks have been rebuilding their stadium for the past few years
I suspect the penrith stadium is assured
____________
Isn’t the Penrith one half-built?
I remember Leigh Maughan running as a Newcastle independent on an ‘improved sporting infrastructure’ platform.
Rumour was he aimed to get the rugby league grand final shifted to Newcastle.
I recall some of his commentary gems from the REAL NRL (Newcastle Rugby League – 113 yrs old)…
“He kicked that one further than you’d go on a holiday!”
“Big crowd here today. They’re lined up one and two deep* ’round the outer.”
*To be fair, many NRL grounds of decades past allowed people to park their cars on the hill, from which they could watch the game. Tries were cheered by the tooting of car horns.
”
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Saturday, April 1, 2023 at 5:45 pm
Some great whataboutism from Ven – worthy of Sprocket
”
I don’t know whether ALP/ NSW Labor gave a ticket to sprocket but I was never near any ALP Office let alone getting a ticket even for super safe LNP seat.
There is saying “a woman scorned”…..
Whether it can be used as a metaphor I don’t know.
Snappy
The Cronulla one is half built by the club. The Penrith one was a promise by the LNP, Labor was a little coy about funding- I suspect it will now go ahead
On another blog, just today, I was discussing the toilet facilities at Newcastle No. 1 Sports Ground pre earthquake and the utility of steel beer cans.
You could still park your car on No. 1 when I left there
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, April 1, 2023 at 6:25 pm
Snappy
The Cronulla one is half built by the club. The Penrith one was a promise by the LNP, Labor was a little coy about funding- I suspect it will now go ahead
On another blog, just today, I was discussing the toilet facilities at Newcastle No. 1 Sports Ground pre earthquake and the utility of steel beer cans.
You could still park your car on No. 1 when I left there
____________
I went to Knights v Broncos 1988. Attendance: 30,220; of which grandstand seating: 5,000. A few rows of concourse seating might’ve been built by then, but I doubt it.
So, about 25,000 on the hills, “sharing” a handful of port-a-loos.
THAT’S rugby league!
Oh well – hopefully there is better news for u all in Aston tonight.
Snappy
I hope you were not silly enough to stand at the bottom of the hill – or if you were that you wore a raincoat and rain hat
Oakeshott Country @ #190 Saturday, April 1st, 2023 – 6:25 pm
Apart from the club grand stand, I’m not sure there’s much ground redevelopment happening at Endeavour Field.
They turned 2 league grounds and a carpark into a Meriton of apartments on the western side of the ground and they’re in the process of doing the same on the eastern side of the ground. I have no idea if there’s going to be any additional parking included but I couldn’t think of a worse place to live in terms of access. It’s been the proverbial shit fight since Cronulla first moved there and it can only be worse once it’s finished.
Given it’s all reclaimed mangroves and a former tip, one would hope a better job has been done than at Homebush and Mascot.
Lars Von Trier
Oh well – hopefully there is better news for u all in Aston tonight.
Better than Labor winning government in NSW?
Don’t worry – you Tories still hold Tassie. That is a solid 2% of the Australian population.
Kirsdarke:
Saturday, April 1, 2023 at 5:56 pm
[‘That feels bitter, and I hope they learn some lessons about it before 2027.’]
I’m sure they will. For me, Minns might not set the house on fire but he does nonetheless present as fair dinkum, which is what I think the polity needs after suffering Morrisonianism. And recall Wran’s ’76 victory. Thereafter, he certainly created a firestorm, as did Carr.
Some fascinating and insightful observations all.
One thing I will be fascinated to read in all the post election analysis will be the failure of the Labor machine in the seat of Terrigal. Clearly Bob Nanva deferred to the local machine to win the seat and on the night it was a victory they were prepared to claim and accept. What happened for it to go backwards so fast? It must be disappointing for Bob, as he is sworn into a Ministry, to reflect that it was his faith (perhaps) in the local heart and soul powerbrokers in the Terrigal Labor machine that cost Labor majority Government. That is a heavy burden.
“ This is the worst “whittling” that I can remember. Not only did all of the election night “doubtfuls” break the wrong way but seats thought won were sucked back into the Dark Side.”
Indeed. Worse than Queensland at the 2016 federal election, where Labor was looking competitive, even slightly ahead in a bunch of seats from Forde through to Capricornia only to go bust in all of them in late counting. But at least we picked up Longman and Herbert then (only to loose both again in 2019).
i think the personal attacks are getting a bit old wedid very well in terigle given hardly any one thought we would winn bega shows that any seat with the right candadate is winable with the right candadate labor never won it before
Probably too many resources went into Kogarah when Minns wasn’t in any real danger this time and too many resources went into Parramatta which was a seat they were always going to pick up anyway.
Organisationally, I think the Labor campaign in NSW wasn’t great, it was really only because of some momentum for Chris Minns in the final week combined with the leaking of the ambulance story concerning Mrs Perrottett that Labor now can govern in a minority.
The shame of it is that Simon Earle and Sam Boughton would have been great additions to the caucus.
Let’s see how well Minns can work with the crossbench for the next 4 years, because he’ll have to.
The liberals can thank the over 50s in half a dozen seats for sending in those postal votes, they’ve saved Terrigal and Holsworthy and Goulburn and Oatley for them, and probably Ryde too.