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Saturday morning
If I understand the situation correctly, yesterday saw only check counts conducted of votes that had already been reported on the initial count – the check count results will not be published in the media feed, which is the source of the data in my results system and those of other media outlets, and have not yet been published on the Electoral Commission system either. However, Antony Green reports checking unearthed a fairly substantial error at the Mittagong Public School booth in Wollondilly, discovery of which has boosted independent candidate Judy Hannan’s lead by 450 votes and dispelled any lingering doubt as to whether she will win.
Tomorrow, entirely new batches of postal, absent and enrolment/provisional votes will be counted and added to the media feed – the expected number of which and the order in which they will be conducted by seat are available here. As before, these will include two-candidate preferred results for the postal votes, but not for the absents and enrolment/provisionals.
Friday morning
A fresh post on the New South Wales election count, the earlier instalment of which can be found here. The Electoral Commission spent today tackling absents and enrolment/provisional reasons — for whatever reason, it only counts primary votes during the first of the two counts it conducts of these votes, so we will be flying blind on this front for the time being at least. The additions to the count yesterday were not huge (and there was no progress at all in Oatley or Pittwater) — the absent vote tallies noted below accounted for at most around a quarter of what’s likely to be their total, and absents have a way of varying from batch to batch depending on where they come from.
I haven’t been following the upper house count, but I’m told that here too things are improving for the Liberals, meaning a likely result of Labor eight, Coalition seven, Greens two and one apiece from One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers, resulting in a chamber in which the left and right have 21 seats apiece.
Holsworthy. No one’s holding out much hope for Labor here, with a 526 vote Liberal lead before yesterday’s additions and postals likely to widen it decisively. Labor would have clawed back about 50 votes on yesterday’s 766 formal absents, but they gained little advantage on the 263 enrolment/provisionals.
Ryde. Labor leads by 235 on the two-party count, which doesn’t include today’s 949 absents, on which I imagine they would have gained about two dozen, and 708 enrolment/provisionals, which broke pretty evenly. Labor’s gain on absents was rather weak in swing terms, which may be because they come from a relatively strong area for the Liberals. If not, the odds on the Liberals chasing Labor down on the many thousands of outstanding postals (2064 have been counted and the NSWEC has received nearly 9000 of them) will have shortened.
Terrigal. I would estimate that Labor gained about 40 on 839 absents and 90 on 670 enrolment/provisionals, but here too the swings to them were relatively weak, which reduces the chances of them wearing down a 237-vote Liberal lead that will surely increase on outstanding postals, of which the Electoral Commission has received 5288 and counted 615. If Labor has a hope, it’s that the remaining absents come from stronger areas and that postals sent closer to election day are more favourable to them than the earlier ones.
Wollondilly. Today’s additions were modest in number, but Judy Hannan did remarkably badly on the 305 absents, scoring only 37 (12.1%) to the Liberals’ 103 (33.8%) and failing to improve on her performance in 2019. I suspect these came from a weak and probably rural area for her, but they nonetheless fortify me in my decision to not call it for her yet despite her 1350 lead on the two-candidate count.
The NSW late counting is very reminiscent of the federal election only 10 months ago.
Can we make it to 47 ?
Not really 98.6 – much more favourable to the Coalition (vs. expectations) than the fed election.
Maybe the trend is not Wran or Carr but Albo.
Winning narrow or non-existent majorities off low primary votes with large numbers of independents in parliament.
Remains to be seen what the Act 2 is. It seems like future winners will win off low primaries (provided they beat the other major party ) but there won’t be huge majorities in future until their is electoral reform.
The splintering of the vote on the Left to the Greens and on the Right to ON et al doesnt look like it will be reversed.
This gives me hope:
The Electoral Commission spent today tackling absents and enrolment/provisional reasons — for whatever reason, it only counts primary votes during the first of the two counts it conducts of these votes, so we will be flying blind on this front for the time being at least.
C’mon Greens preferences!
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 5:41 am
Maybe the trend is not Wran or Carr but Albo.
Winning narrow or non-existent majorities off low primary votes with large numbers of independents in parliament.
Remains to be seen what the Act 2 is. It seems like future winners will win off low primaries (provided they beat the other major party ) but there won’t be huge majorities in future until their is electoral reform.
————————————
Labor gets the political advantage
The lib/nats will rarely be in government with a combined primary below 40%
C@tmomma @ 6.07am
I will not give up hope in Terrigal, the margin is still very slim, and the preference flow is still favouring the ALP, until the final ballot is counted and the final preference distributed.
I wonder how many, although the primary count was low, voted for Sustainable Australia in the misbelief that it was an environmental party and not an anti-immigration RWNJ front?
One can only hope that they recommended a Vote 1 strategy.
Macca RB @ #6 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 6:57 am
The answer to your question about SA is, a lot. At my booth they beat The Greens’ candidate on Primary Votes, 99-90! They were helped by being the donkey as well. 😉
I haven’t given up hope either. 🙂
I think if the ALP gets the chance they should give OPV the flick. The state government of Qld. knocked it on the head seeing that it is disadvantageous, with the high green vote in many city seats not coming back to the ALP in the opv scenario. Now I’m not a voting expert like WB but if my memory serves me well I seem to remember Qld Labor’s 2012 wipeout would have been no where near as bad had full preferential voting been in place. I also feel that FPV is a fairer system in that if your candidate can’t get up, you at least have to make a choice of who is your least worst option. Here in Brisbane the LNP/ Courier Mail/ Murdochcracy argued strongly and whinged their so and so’s off about this change so it must be a goody!! If a green voter reckons the ALP and conservatives are the same ( to which I vehemently disagree ) well they can put the conservative second.
Are there any bludgers living in the Kiama electorate? As one who recently moved to Kiama, I’ve been trying to work out the history of the Ann Sudmalis/ Gareth Ward stoush – my current understanding about the latter is that he took credit for funding when in fact it was because it was a marginal seat.
His corflutes outnumbered the ALP candidate’s but I can’t understand people voting for him, since he can’t represent them in parliament. (As I understand it)
Here’s some analysis on the impact of optional preferential voting in the 2019 NSW Election: https://antonygreen.com.au/preference-flows-by-party-2019-nsw-election/
Optional preferential voting was introduced in by the Wran Government 1980. This was before the Greens existed – their future adherents mostly voted Labor, those politically active were mostly in the Labor left. It was while the Australian Democrats, formed from breakaway Liberals, were just getting started. It was also a time when the loathed DLP of old was a recent memory.
As it turns out, it was very much an own goal.
Too tricky by half eh Steve777?
OPV has no doubt cost Minns a majority and saved a few Liberal seats from falling to Teals, like Pittwater.
The appeal of Gareth Ward to voters in Kiama totally escapes me. They have voted to be essentially ignored by the new government for the next 4 years, the people of Wollindilly or Wakehurst are more likely to get increased government spending and programs.
Prince planet says :
Now I’m not a voting expert like WB but if my memory serves me well I seem to remember Qld Labor’s 2012 wipeout would have been no where near as bad had full preferential voting been in place.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
As it turned out, it didn’t matter that it was a (near) wipe out down to 7 Labor MPs in 2012.
Losing by one seat is equivalent to losing by 30 when it means your not in government.
The reverse is also true,
Winning by one seat is equivalent to winning by 30.
Think of NSW Labor winning by one seat in the next week. I’m sure Minns will be happy as Larry.
Is Mark McGowan going to achieve anything more while in government with only 4 Nats and 2 Libs.
I doubt it.
The only real advantage is when it helps with the swing required to unseat them although that didn’t work for Premier Campbell Newman who had that advantage in 2015.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:06 am
Too tricky by half eh Steve777?
”
It proves a government actions will have consequences even after 40 years.
So we have wait and see what consequences Australia/world will face because of LNP government actions in last decade regarding Climate change whether federally or at State level.
One of the consequences is death of millions of fish in Minindee, NSW.
37.2% primary doesn’t add up to a majority of seats. Hardly seems unfair to moi.
Still if the Scotty view is right – Minns could do an Albo and lose 3 or 4 % of the primary and still win a plurality in 2027.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Are there any bludgers living in the Kiama electorate? As one who recently moved to Kiama, I’ve been trying to work out the history of the Ann Sudmalis/ Gareth Ward stoush – my current understanding about the latter is that he took credit for funding when in fact it was because it was a marginal seat.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It goes back to before Sudmalis, to when Jo Gash was the Fed member for Gilmore. And there are other players on both sides.
I suspect a simple factional fight for supremacy.
Partizans in the fight have told me of the usual war crimes – branch stacking, double dealing, late-night threats and blandishments to pre-selectors.
A proxy war of sorts was played out on Shoalhaven council. See if you can find the case of a bowl of tomato sauce being thrown at a council dinner (I can’t remember if Ward was the alleged target or alleged thrower).
I repeat my comment from last night, a two party preferred vote of nearly 54% and a probable minority government doesn’t sit well with me, a sad indictment of OPV. It just means the Liberals and Nationals gamed that system far better than Labor, which they wouldn’t have been able to do with compulsory preference distribution.
Another possible reason for introducing OPV was the prevalence of three-cornered Liberal-Labor-National contests in times past. This was pointed out by Oakeshott the other day and is also noted in the article I linked above. The Liberals and Nationals knock each other out, allowing Labor to come home Steven Bradbury-like over both. However, these contests have practically disappeared in recent decades because of OPV. Yes, maybe too clever by half.
98.6 says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:20 am
Prince planet says :
Now I’m not a voting expert like WB but if my memory serves me well I seem to remember Qld Labor’s 2012 wipeout would have been no where near as bad had full preferential voting been in place.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
As it turned out, it didn’t matter that it was a (near) wipe out down to 7 Labor MPs in 2012.
Losing by one seat is equivalent to losing by 30 when it means your not in government.
The reverse is also true,
Winning by one seat is equivalent to winning by 30.
Think of NSW Labor winning by one seat in the next week. I’m sure Minns will be happy as Larry.
Is Mark McGowan going to achieve anything more while in government with only 4 Nats and 2 Libs.
I doubt it.
The only real advantage is when it helps with the swing required to unseat them although that didn’t work for Premier Campbell Newman who had that advantage in 2015.
____________
There is some relationship between voting patterns in lower and upper houses (not relevant in Qld).
McGowan’s smashing victory gave Labor the ability to make the WA upper house democratic – probably for the first time in that house’s history.
Minns, meanwhile, shouldn’t have too much trouble with the NSW lower house, but the upper house…
Evan says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:45 am
I repeat my comment from last night, a two party preferred vote of nearly 54% and a probable minority government doesn’t sit well with me, a sad indictment of OPV. It just means the Liberals and Nationals gamed that system far better than Labor, which they wouldn’t have been able to do with compulsory preference distribution.
____________
I partially agree.
On the other hand, there was a South Australian election a couple of terms ago which saw a Labor govt returned on 47% 2PP, under, IIRC, full preferential voting.
I would concede that OPV makes weird results like NSW 2023 more likely.
I think it is also true that the swing to NSW Labor was incredibly uneven – and often in seats where a swing wasn’t needed. Look at the margins in lower Hunter seats already held by Labor – really safe now, but you’d love to donate a thousand votes to Terrigal, for example!
@quasar Yes there’s a lot of history between Jo, her partner and Ward. It’s a toxic brand of politics in the Shoalhaven Libs. As for the corflutes, the Labor candidate had him covered at all the booths in the north of the electorate. His base in the south of the seat stayed with him. Strongest swings were in Minnamurra, Kiama Downs and Albion Park. That might be attributed (for the first 2) to the fact the ALP candidate grew up in that part of the electorate and had a high recognition factor.
OPV was introduced when there was one person on the cross bench. Commentators marvelled at John Hatton’s ability to win South Coast as an independent. In a land slide Labor won 58% of the primary and LNP 38%. Others were 4%
It would have been unimaginable to Nifty that the combined primary of the duopoly would fall to 72%. The lunatic fringe who didn’t vote for the duopoly were hardly worth thinking about but the real benefit would be the disruption between Country and Liberals. The country party was one seat short of being the official opposition in that parliament.
Therefore OPV was a great idea and we should make it virtually irreversible.
There was no cross-bench in the LC after that election and the third highest party was CPA with Jack Mundey as the lead candidate on just under 3%.
The ABC has awarded Goulburn to the Liberals, so the only seats apparently in doubt now are Ryde, Terrigal, and Holsworthy, although I think Holsworthy is a Liberal retain.
So really only Ryde and Terrigal are in play at this point.
Lars Von Trier
37.2% primary doesn’t add up to a majority of seats. Hardly seems unfair to moi.
Perhaps “moi” needs to be better informed about the concept of preferential voting – even when it is optional (OPV).
Voters are typically aware of what preferential voting is all about – and they rank the candidates accordingly.
OPV is not first-past-the-post. So the primary vote does not represent a complete picture of voter intentions.
If Gareth survives the court case he will find it very difficult and different not being in Government. He has a propensity for taking credit for anything good, and disappearing when there’s any heat. The major projects after the Nowra bridge are all to the South, including the JB road flyover, Ulladulla bypass, sub arterial road upgrade to Callala area and upgrades to Milton hospital. Fiona is pushing hard on the Nowra bypass with Gareth trying to ride on her coattails. Tough times for him.
Outside Left: That is my impression of Gareth Ward too, he likes to take credit for all sorts of projects in Kiama and a majority of people obviously think he gets positive results for their area. I somehow doubt he will get the same level of largesse from the Minns government as he got from the previous state Liberal governments.
From my post in the old thread (yesterday 5:19 PM):
My best guess for the Upper House would be (elected 2023 and total)
– Labor 8 (15)
– Coalition 7 (15)
– Green 2 (4)
– One Nation 1 (3)
– SFF 1 (2)
– Cannabis 1 (1)
– Liberal Democrats 1 (1)
– Animals 0 (1)
That would be left-leaning and right-leaning 21-all.
Labor would normally (but not always) have the support of the Greens, Animals and Cannibas, which would get them to 21. Of course, each of these (especially the Greens) can give Labor a headache if they choose.
But even with the left on board, Labor needs one more vote.
The 15 Coalition members will oppose everything. One Nation and the Liberal Democrats will normally join them.
This leaves the two Shooters/Farmers/Fishers in the box seat.
Evan @ 9.45am
It wasn’t the voting system that has, at this stage of the counting, cost the ALP majority it was the electoral pendulum and the margins in individual seats which have led to this result.
The nearly 13% swing to the ALP in Terrigal, may or may not be rewarded.
At the onset of this election the ALP required a uniform swing of between 6 – 8% to achieve majority government.
Some low hanging fruit fell to Labor, some didn’t.
Traditional ALP seats, Cabramatta & Fairfield, swung to the Liberals and yet Monaro & South Coast with 11.6% & 10.6% margins respectively fell to the ALP.
A competent Minns administration could be well rewarded in 2027, with a result similar to that achieved by Wran in 1978 or Carr in 1999.
The has always been the natural party of government in NSW.
The LNP win, in a landslide, after 10 or more years of Labor and then progressively lose their majority until the natural order is restored.
NSW could be the laboratory for proportional representation.
Assuming nothing turns up in Ryde and terrigal both – state govt will have been in minority for almost 8 yrs by 2027.
how can it be fairer to force people to make a preference they may not actually express or possess
Evan
That is my impression of Gareth Ward too, he likes to take credit for all sorts of projects in Kiama and a majority of people obviously think he gets positive results for their area
He would show up to the opening of a packet of smokes – as the saying goes.
He loves smoking doesn’t he ?
I thought you might be a smoker too leftiebrawler? There was a lot of smokers around Gerard back in the day?
Never been a smoker- didn’t even experiment once
lb might be able to give us mor info but i t hink the fude in the local liberals started between joana gash and garith ward
D F M Brown @ #16 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 9:44 am
Shoalhaven council has been dysfunctional as long as I have been here, but this predates me. I will have to try and find out more. If anyone has any info, please post it.
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:53 am
Evan says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:45 am
I repeat my comment from last night, a two party preferred vote of nearly 54%
…
If you have optional preferential the two party preferred means very little.
Outside left would be the best to shed light on the full particulars…..
Short story is that he had paved out his path to the Prime minister’s chair via wrangling Gilmore from Gash once she announced her retirement.
However Jo all along had got her ducks in a row at the local Nowra branch level to ensure her long time electoral officer and long time housemate Sudmalis be one the one to get preselection and thus the seat and indeed it went down like that.
He was enraged and tried to stack and turn the rank and file against her.
Serious allegations of bullying and intimidation were levelled against him by gash and co.
He was never the same and had to leave and look north to newer, lesser state pastures in kiama.
Is a Labor majority really ‘fair’ considering their primary vote and the TPP. One must remember the Greens seats and certain independents heavily contribute to Labor’s TPP margin.
Hahaha yes the sauce incident –
See the picture here where it’s widely believed he added more sauce himself to his face before the picture was taken
https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/986529/uproar-in-council/
You were never curious what it was like to be a smoker Leftie? A lot of smokers started out of curiosity.
Each to their own Lars- I don’t judge smokers for making that lifestyle choice- just as long as they aren’t blowing it in my face.
Have you been smoking since your teens Lars?.
Preferential voting empowers a duopoly. It is a reasonable voting system when the duoploy attracts >90% support but now it props up a dying system with 30% of the electorate not supporting either choice.
If constitutional reform is on the agenda a form of proportional representation would be more reflective of the current situation rather than the reimposition of the tired old system
No, the reason why 53.5% 2PP is misleading re forming a majority is that 28% of people have voted for minor parties/independents AND THEY HAVE WON SEATS. Labor has to outnumber BOTH the impact of the Liberal and minor party vote to form a majority, while 2PP effectively assumes the crossbench is zero. It wouldn’t have been an issue if the third party vote is small but its starting to get large.
In this case CPV probably would have helped Labor get a majority, but it easily may not have and in any event the issue with the large crossbench remains.
No leftie, no smokes.
I’m more active than passive In my interests.
Very interesting Lars.
I’ve heard alot of people of your political leanings smoke behind closed doors at every opportunity they get around your part of city?.
It’s a risky pursuit these days knowing what we know now about the health risks.
Oakeshott County
It is a reasonable voting system when the duoploy attracts >90% support but now it props up a dying system with 30% of the electorate not supporting either choice.
That’s one way of looking at it. I would say it is the wrong way. Voters know they are operating within a democratic system – and so they vote accordingly in a consciously ranked-based way. This is not a bug of PV, it is a feature.
As an example, and I hope I am not spilling any domestic secrets here: Mrs Shogun likes Animal Justice Party. She holds fuzzy creatures (and feathery and scaly ones too) close to her heart. So she puts AJP first, Labor second…. with Liberals last (or second-last, if One Nation is running in the seat). She is making a point by putting AJP first – but she definitely wants a Labor government (not a Coalition one).
This sort of nuanced voting does not reflect the narrow and misleading “duopoly is dying!” interpretation of PV.
I just note in passing that 37% of the primary vote went to Labor, 36% to the Coalition and 28% to Someone Else*. This seems to have resulted in these groups getting 46, 35 and 12 seats, i.e. 49%, 38% and 13%. Labor can’t really complain.
Maybe it’s time to try proportional representation. Not going to happen of course.
* adds up to 101 because of rounding
Steve777
I just note in passing that 37% of the primary vote went to Labor, 36% to the Coalition and 28% to Someone Else*.
Please do not take this the wrong way – I do not intend to insult you. But this is a very binary and simplistic way of looking at the primary vote. It is just a primary vote. People who put Someone Else first often do so because of reasons other than who they want to form government.
Another example: Many die-hard Labor voters in blue-ribbon Coalition seats will put an Independent first for wholly strategic reasons. I have never done this, because I have always lived in electorates that have been Labor-vs-Liberal contests. But I have cousins in rural seats who put Independent first, Labor second. Are these voters really just voting for “Someone Else”? I say not.