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Saturday morning
If I understand the situation correctly, yesterday saw only check counts conducted of votes that had already been reported on the initial count – the check count results will not be published in the media feed, which is the source of the data in my results system and those of other media outlets, and have not yet been published on the Electoral Commission system either. However, Antony Green reports checking unearthed a fairly substantial error at the Mittagong Public School booth in Wollondilly, discovery of which has boosted independent candidate Judy Hannan’s lead by 450 votes and dispelled any lingering doubt as to whether she will win.
Tomorrow, entirely new batches of postal, absent and enrolment/provisional votes will be counted and added to the media feed – the expected number of which and the order in which they will be conducted by seat are available here. As before, these will include two-candidate preferred results for the postal votes, but not for the absents and enrolment/provisionals.
Friday morning
A fresh post on the New South Wales election count, the earlier instalment of which can be found here. The Electoral Commission spent today tackling absents and enrolment/provisional reasons — for whatever reason, it only counts primary votes during the first of the two counts it conducts of these votes, so we will be flying blind on this front for the time being at least. The additions to the count yesterday were not huge (and there was no progress at all in Oatley or Pittwater) — the absent vote tallies noted below accounted for at most around a quarter of what’s likely to be their total, and absents have a way of varying from batch to batch depending on where they come from.
I haven’t been following the upper house count, but I’m told that here too things are improving for the Liberals, meaning a likely result of Labor eight, Coalition seven, Greens two and one apiece from One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers, resulting in a chamber in which the left and right have 21 seats apiece.
Holsworthy. No one’s holding out much hope for Labor here, with a 526 vote Liberal lead before yesterday’s additions and postals likely to widen it decisively. Labor would have clawed back about 50 votes on yesterday’s 766 formal absents, but they gained little advantage on the 263 enrolment/provisionals.
Ryde. Labor leads by 235 on the two-party count, which doesn’t include today’s 949 absents, on which I imagine they would have gained about two dozen, and 708 enrolment/provisionals, which broke pretty evenly. Labor’s gain on absents was rather weak in swing terms, which may be because they come from a relatively strong area for the Liberals. If not, the odds on the Liberals chasing Labor down on the many thousands of outstanding postals (2064 have been counted and the NSWEC has received nearly 9000 of them) will have shortened.
Terrigal. I would estimate that Labor gained about 40 on 839 absents and 90 on 670 enrolment/provisionals, but here too the swings to them were relatively weak, which reduces the chances of them wearing down a 237-vote Liberal lead that will surely increase on outstanding postals, of which the Electoral Commission has received 5288 and counted 615. If Labor has a hope, it’s that the remaining absents come from stronger areas and that postals sent closer to election day are more favourable to them than the earlier ones.
Wollondilly. Today’s additions were modest in number, but Judy Hannan did remarkably badly on the 305 absents, scoring only 37 (12.1%) to the Liberals’ 103 (33.8%) and failing to improve on her performance in 2019. I suspect these came from a weak and probably rural area for her, but they nonetheless fortify me in my decision to not call it for her yet despite her 1350 lead on the two-candidate count.
Ven @ #179 Saturday, April 1st, 2023 – 5:37 pm
As the vinegary old man, Oakeshott Country, proved in his response to your apt comment, Ven. To which I will add, there’s no hater, like a Labor Hater. Well, the Liberals can have them. It’s their natural home now, appropriately.
Evan,
Exactly. We were allocated zero money for a postal vote campaign in Terrigal.
C@t, Sam Boughton’s concession statement was very gracious, quite a contrast to Adam Crouch who didn’t even thank or even mention his opponent.
Alas Terrigal has another 4 years of Mr Crouch.
the party put a lot of resourcis in to penrith and paramatter understandpenrith but paramatter minns did not need to viset the seat about five times after the loso f geof lees personal vote it was all ways likely to be a labor gain should have put more resourcis in to oatley and terigle at leat theour campaign was better then chris stones liberal campaign perottit was all over the place has sidgreaves in camden and east hills mp conseded yet
I think the gentlemen ( behind the scenes) agreement between DoPe and Minns not to go negative against each other was a good tactic from DoPe’s point of view.
Because of that DoPe and LNP were able to sweep the political dirt under carpet (metaphorically) and in the process able to sandbag and save seats like Holsworthy, Ryde, Oatley, Pittwater, Willoughby.
When it came to Minns regarding positive tactics maybe he wanted to be remembered in positive way, which actually helped Labor on Election Day voting.
On election night I thought there is possibility that Liberals will lose all coastal seats from Victorian border to Port Stephens except Cronulla.
Alas that is not the case.
Libs won Cronulla, Pittwater, Terrigal
The oldies in seats like Terrigal with their postals saved Liberal MPs. Labor next time at a state level has to put more resourcing into that area.
As a friend of my grandmother once said, “It is the respectable thing to vote Liberal”.
Alas, the postals well and truly fucked Terrigal, for the ALP.
Here, at Nth Avoca we only received two election mail outs.
The ALP – How to Vote paper, two weeks prior to polling day.
The LP package, which included pre-poll and postal voting information with a return postage pre-paid envelope. This was distributed, six weeks prior to polling day.
This is an issue which the ALP needs to seriously address, for every electorate being contested at State or Federal level in order to maximise every potential vote.
This “oversite” may have cost the ALP a seat and having a parliamentary majority within its own control.
Everyone’s fault but Dutt’s that the Liberals lost Aston.
Dutton refers to the PM as, ‘Mr Albanese’. No respect.
MaccaRB,
Head office did not provide any money for a postal vote campaign because they never identified Terrigal as a winnable seat.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 9:15 am
MaccaRB,
Head office did not provide any money for a postal vote campaign because they never identified Terrigal as a winnable seat.
____________
Does this suggest the Coalition have enough money for proper postal vote mailings everywhere? Or, that postal voters fall into Coalition-leaning demographics? (Or, a bit of both?)
So it looks like the final result is going to be 53.5/46.5 in two party preferred and 45 seats to Labor.
Both are close enough to what the polling (on average across the all the final polls) forecast, and the pendulum indicated for a 5.5% swing.
Hence, spot on and good to see orderly psephology.
so can we still win ride i think labor needs to get rid of opv
Aaron: I would love someone to investigate how many seats OPV cost Labor this time? I suspect a bigger factor depriving Minns of a majority was the swing to Labor only coming in the last week and especially in the last few days before March 25, hence most of the postal votes would have been sent in a couple of weeks before that. And if Labor puts zero resources into postal vote distribution in a seat like Terrigal, it’s gonna bite them in the bum if there’s a sudden 14% swing to them on election night before those postals have been counted – C@t knows all about that.
Postals always favour the conservatives, it’s obvious older people who tend to be Liberal voters will send in a postal vote, either because they don’t want to turn up on election day to vote or they’re going away on holiday or they’re not well etc.
The result in Ryde is sort of an anti climax now, because it won’t alter the overall situation, 45 seats or 46 seats, it’s a minority Labor government.
What’s the reason for a TPP of nearly 54-46 translating to an inability to get a majority of seats in the lower house? Bad luck or have the LNP reforms of optional preferential voting finally worked (a treat)?
Darc says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 5:56 pm
What’s the reason for a TPP of nearly 54-46 translating to an inability to get a majority of seats in the lower house? Bad luck or have the LNP reforms of optional preferential voting finally worked (a treat)?
____________
Tragically, Optional Preferential Voting is Labor’s fault.
Under OPV, primary vote assumes great significance. Labor won that, but only by about 2%, while winning 2PP by over 7 – that’s the big disconnect.
The swing was also incredibly uneven…
Labor squeaked home to flip Penrith with a swing of just over 2%.
In a few Sydney metro seats, Labor suffered a swing against but held the seat.
In places like the Lower Hunter, Labor ran up big swings to it which it didn’t need; meanwhile, in several ultra-safe Liberal seats, Labor attracted a decent swing but lost.
In seats like Terrigal, Labor attracted a big swing but full a percent or two short.
So, minority govt. In 2027, the Coalition will be dfending way more marginals than Labor (small consolation).
Under opv with over 25% not going to the alp and coalition. The pendulum has less meaning… opv should mean that the party with the highest primary vote should win. Alp was appox 37% the coalition 35%… which meant the alp was favoured.. thus was the case but not as much as expected. East Hills went as expected. 2019.. libs 2% higher.. Labor missed by 0.5%.. 2023 almost a even vote on primaries and labor won by 2 to 3%
Mick Quinlivan says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 7:02 pm
Under opv with over 25% not going to the alp and coalition. The pendulum has less meaning… opv should mean that the party with the highest primary vote should win. Alp was appox 37% the coalition 35%… which meant the alp was favoured.. thus was the case but not as much as expected. East Hills went as expected. 2019.. libs 2% higher.. Labor missed by 0.5%.. 2023 almost a even vote on primaries and labor won by 2 to 3%
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It’s going to sound perverse, but, over the past 2 elections, Labor may have profited more from OPV than the Coalition:
2023, Labor wins 1st pref by 2%, gains minority govt on 45 seats (Coalition 36)
2019, Coalition wins 1st pref by 8%, barely wins majority govt on 48 seats (Labor 36)
Yay OPV?
wonder when nsw liberals will chose there new leader wonder whiy matt kean is not running he would be the best to move t to get moderit voters back and minns will have to anownse hiscabenit soon
Aaron newton says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:07 pm
wonder when nsw liberals will chose there new leader wonder whiy matt kean is not running he would be the best to move t to get moderit voters back and minns will have to anownse hiscabenit soon
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…and I wonder if Kean will soon depart politics, given the hopeless lurch to the Right of his party.
Wonder when Labor will get around to filling the ministry? It has been 9 days……..
Interesting question Lars. Minns might not rate the rest apart from the big dogs already announced.
Apparently it’s Wednesday for the full ministry Wranslide.
Let’s hope Dr Hugh McDermott gets the recognition he deserves.
Poll Bludger’s predictions have been wrong for just about every seat that was not obvious on the Saturday night of the election.
You need to do some serious work on your predictictive algorithms.
You had ALP ahead in Ryde and Terrigal with strong probability of that being correct.
You had the IND ahead in Pittwater.
Perhaps there is a serious downside to being located so far away and relying on others to keep you abreast of the rhythm of the campaign (and thus make adjustments for expectations on pre-poll results (or EVCs) and postal vote results).
Antony Green realised that he had a complete shocker on election night and reverted to reporting on actual results. Perhaps there is a lesson there because when a predictive tool gets key seats consistently wrong, it undermines the efficacy of the web page.
wonder if borsak from shooters party will win his uper house seat seems like lib democrats with ter terible john ruddick will get the spot he is just as bad as borsak if not worsewas a long ttime hard right liberal
at least after 42 years fred nile and the cdp are finished so no more extreme christions apart from tanya davies and donnnelly in parliament now
No counting in Ryde today, at least no new updates that I can find, this one will obviously be dragged out for a few more days.
I think William said there were about a 1000 postals left in Ryde to count and the Libs had a lead of 252.
So I think its good night Irene for Lyndal Howison. Many were called from Ryde Council but only Jerome Laxale ultimately answered the call.
Jordan Lane the likely winner in Ryde is very ordinary, I watched an online forum for the election in Ryde a few weeks ago and the Labor candidate was way better than him.
He has probably benefitted from Victor Dominello endorsing him in a letter that was sent to every household in the seat.
Alas Labor got big swings in the seats they were always going to hold and not big enough swings in 4 or 5 seats they should have won off the Liberals. Upper Hunter, Tweed, Oatley and Holsworthy are failures in my opinion. All the hype about Goulburn being in play was not borne out in reality. Yep, Miranda and Terrigal were heroic efforts, but the Libs still held them, end of story.
Evan says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 5:35 pm
Jordan Lane the likely winner in Ryde is very ordinary, I watched an online forum for the election in Ryde a few weeks ago and the Labor candidate was way better than him.
He has probably benefitted from Victor Dominello endorsing him in a letter that was sent to every household in the seat.
Alas Labor got big swings in the seats they were always going to hold and not big enough swings in 4 or 5 seats they should have won off the Liberals. Upper Hunter, Tweed, Oatley and Holsworthy are failures in my opinion. All the hype about Goulburn being in play was not borne out in reality. Yep, Miranda and Terrigal were heroic efforts, but the Libs still held them, end of story.
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I broadly agree, but not re Upper Hunter. Labor’s never held it. The only thing narrowing the margin was the previous Coalition member, who’s gorrrn.
I have no idea about how much money Labor’s campaign had, but any campaign review really ought to look at the ‘whittling’ of so many leads into losses: would more money on postals have made a difference? etc…
ST
Or… a minimal target campaign from both sides meant that people did not engage until the last 2 days and then the swing occurred. Thosewho voted early followed their usual pattern
Or…postal votes always favour the conservatives because they come from an older cohort
Personally, I’ve always favoured getting the parties out of postal votes – just let the electoral commission handle them itself. ‘Campaigns’ have always smelt like taking advantage of the naivete of voters for data harvesting.
Where is this NSW Ministry. I guess it just highlights that they are hardly needed?
speaking of nsw election whats hapining with upper house coubnt will borsak retain his seat or will liberal democrats get it also at least no more fredd nile
Hoopefuly minns will get rid off the hopelis burocrat michael coutstrotter funy considering the coalition made a big deal about his background in labor when he was education department head thenwhen in government kept him on to eventually head premiers department basickly because he is a big fan of privartisation
hopefuly labor can get rid of him he seems to have stuffed up evry department he has run
Ministry has been announced. No Whan, which is a bit of a shock.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/female-firsts-in-new-labor-cabinet-where-half-the-ministers-will-be-women-20230403-p5cxrk.html
In my view it is a myth that ‘a better postal campaign’ will move the dial at all. The conclusions reached years ago by the party is that those who decide to vote postal have made up their mind a long time before making the request for a postal ballot and cannot be turned.
Labor lost Terrigal and other close seats simply because of poor campaign resourcing out of the state campaign office to the local campaigns. This in turn reflects the fact that the state campaign manager only ever really targeted minority government. Probably because he believed that OPV would see Labor fall short in up to half a dozen seats that would have otherwise fallen to us. Was this simply being astute? Or some sort of self fulfilling prophecy?
Terrigal and Goulburn would have been ‘bonus’ seats to pick up, but seats like Holsworthy and Winston Hills are the sort of seats that would from part of the spine of a long term Labor Government (along with the seats that labor did pick up in western sydney – East Hills, Parramatta, Penrith and Riverstone. Also sandbagging Londonderry). Labor did pick up bonus seats on the South Coast and Camden, so there is that.
It’s early days, but looking to history – Wran in 1976 and Carr in 1995 – majority government could be on the cards if Minns is judged to have performed well over the next four years. Sophomore swings to state Labor Governments are becoming the norm if one looks at Queensland, Victoria and WA.
There’s quite a few shaftings in there Andy.
First and foremost your mate, Dr Hugh McDermott – I can’t believe he was overlooked. With his skills he’d be on the front bench anywhere in the world surely?
Has the full list been put up? Lars, Hugh might be there in the list?
Can’t find the parly sec list anywhere wranslide
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/female-firsts-in-new-labor-cabinet-where-half-the-ministers-will-be-women-20230403-p5cxrk.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1SDRpuJwqvabjhLRMZPIykevO4Sy3rQgfmgW9N5ECg9rH6meKrmhB2hl4#Echobox=1680558133
Surprised Greg Warren missed out!
Minns has followed his Labor counterparts in other states and promoted a lot of women.
there is some suprising moves in the ministry like Gregg warin being dumped to back bench how ever mckays deputy yazmin catley being one of the big winners premoated to polece along with minns close suporter Housos tacking on finance biggest looser is gihad Dib desbite being a former princible lost energy now and now gets customer survice suprised he decided to run again so minns realy does want to unify his team sensably mcdermit was notgiven a spot houssos gets a well deserved premoation
moriarti in agriculture may seem suprising but shelives in queenbean only weak spot is michael daley in aterney general and hoenig no longer getting speaker warrin is a nice guy but did not do much in local government
warren missed out to make room for hoening (who would otherwise been speaker)
That’s at least 4 disaffected backbenchers now.
Aaron how can you say that about McDermott ?
Jihad Dib dodged a bullet on energy – given the likely black outs this term.
does any body know who the parliamentary secs are has minns held a pres conference anowsing his team donnoly could get parl sec for health to keep him buzy and not carying on about abortion he is in the rongparty basickly a dlp man hopefuly he retire in 2023 the shoppies would have some one else to fill the spot primrose could also go heis prity uselis in upper house he could get president of the house
I can see Daley’s noggin in the photo so I assume he is AG?
yes lazthe liberals best tallint matt kean cant run for leader because 2 gb would undermine him so he had to say family reasons speakman will go federal and robberts to conservative so the little known henskins might be leaderwell he has to be good he is a barister
“ I can see Daley’s noggin in the photo so I assume he is AG?”
He has been for 6 days already shellbell.