Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 8 in NSW

The first major NSW state poll since the start of the campaign finds a strong gain for the Coalition at the expense of the Greens and independents.

The Sydney Morning Herald breaks the New South Wales election campaign poll drought with a result from Resolve Strategic that suggests the momentum of the campaign has been in favour of the Coalition. Whereas the previous poll of February 22 to 26 was unique among the polls at the start of the campaign in crediting Labor with a strong primary vote, this one has them both at 38%, with the Coalition up six and Labor steady. Making way for the improving Coalition are the Greens, down three to 8%, and independents, down five to 8%, with others up one to 8%. UPDATE: Gorks in comments makes a point I should have picked up on: that “Resolve does this every election where final poll shows massive primary vote changes because they show the ballot paper in survey questions”. No two-party preferred is provided, but I would roughly calculate this at a bit over 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Dominic Perrottet also records a solid improvement in his personal ratings, his combined very good and good result up seven from the previous poll to 52%, while his poor plus very poor rating is down eight to 32%. Chris Minns is up three on very good plus good to 46% and down two on poor plus very poor to 26%, with 28% remaining undecided. Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier increases from 38-34 to 40-34. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

238 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 8 in NSW”

Comments Page 2 of 5
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  2. Hugoaugogo says:
    Monday, March 20, 2023 at 4:39 pm
    If there is an election guessing competition on, put me down for:

    Coalition: 43
    ALP: 43
    ————————————–

    I dont know about the cross bench numbers i am going what has been my feeling for awhile

    The major parties numbers will be reverse to what they currently are
    before the election
    Lib/nats 45 seats
    Labor 36 seats
    Election result
    Labor 45 seats
    lib/nats 36 seats

  4. wish minns would spend more time in other marginals like penrith paramatter and lepington labor is focused to much on paramatter

  5. Hugoaugogo says:
    Monday, March 20, 2023 at 4:39 pm
    If there is an election guessing competition on, put me down for:

    Coalition: 43
    ALP: 43
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Hugoaugogo, would you like to put your name down as ‘I believe Labor will win’
    OR ‘I believe Liberals will win’.

  6. Shellbellsays:
    Monday, March 20, 2023 at 5:05 pm
    At end of video Roy Morgan 53.5 ALP

    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9264-trust-and-distrust-in-nsw-politics-webinar

    Worth watching if you like hearing the word trust said a thousand times
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Yes ! Well worth watching.
    Pity untrustworthy former Liberal Premier Ms (so called ) Popularity Gladbags Berejiklian wasn’t still leading the party, going by the TRUST factor mentioned by Roy Morgan, Labor would have won every seat.

  7. Perrottett in the South Coast electorates today, which might tell you something about internal Liberal polling in South Coast and Kiama.
    That Resolve Poll this morning I had a few issues with, I can’t help thinking that they oversampled Liberal voters and undersampled Green and Teal voters. The media certainly are pushing the idea of a close election and Perrottett’s supposed popularity boosting that Coalition primary vote from the low level it was at the start of the campaign.
    Any more intel from pre polling? What C@tmomma had to say about Terrigal earlier in this thread was interesting.

  8. Labor and Lib wonks on both sides discovered their internal respective tracking numbers were very similar to each others around 4-5pm last tuesday evening after leaks from both camps came about. You can now all see what this did for Lnp- suddenly the conservative Catholic Premier was forced against his will to assume a defensive pivot and an awkward detour into the trendy Waspy blue wall of the beaches and the north shore where he is universally despised by those socially progressive old school Lib communities.

    I’m not sure of the whole story or its factual provenance * but from my high ups the word is that The Libs have taken the pragmatic step as of sundan morning of going into furniture saving mode. By all accounts the Premier is furious and might explain why Keans was happy to stay well away of it all.

    53-47 to Labor is what they are thinking and could continue to grow this week. As I first predicted to everyones ridicule last week- There is a relatively linked swing on right now towards Labor. They are getting ever bullish for seats like Tweed, Goulburn , Kiama South coat, Drummoyne and even our boy Garion Thain in Mulgoa. Assesment right now from Sussex street is a 1-4 seat majority being formed. Its not for me to say but I now know why Sportsbet had suddenly moved Labor to 1.30 and Ayres out to 3.50 a on Friday night. Im not prepared to discuss it here but all I would say is keep an eye out over the next 48 hours.

  9. Also on ABC Radio in Sydney this afternoon, a well known academic expert on road safety totally rubbished Dom’s proposal to up the speed limit to 90 km/hour for WestConnects as reckless and potentially life threatening.

  10. LeftBrawler: Thanks mate for the post above, fascinating. The young bloke in Badgery’s Creek for Labor is by all reports running a terrific campaign, with little to no support from head office.
    From my part of Sydney, I’d love to see Labor take Ryde and cut Perrottett’s margin in Epping down by 4 or 5% or even more. Alas Wahroonga, my seat, and Hornsby, won’t move all that much.
    But if Labor wins a majority, it’ll be in the West of Sydney.

  11. Evan, I hope now you can see why I was mentioning South coast and Kiama from day dot. thosen seats will deliver a labor majority. This has been builfing for 6 months or more now.

  12. I’m also to believe there is NO sky/News ltd/LNP coordinated dirt file to drop on Minns this week.

    From what I understand it was discussed with the Premier and his big wig head office men. They could only suggest creating a BS narrative betwen Minns and the CCP.

    To the Premier’s credit he allegedly slapped it down as pathetic and desperate. He is now hedging all his bets on the Wednesday night Sky news forum.

  13. 98.6says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 10:53 pm
    Four days to go, Poll Bludgers. Who is going to win on the 25th?
    Two weeks ago these bludgers put their name to the Party they say will win.
    Not might, maybe, if, but, provided, hopefully, etc. The party they say from everything they know about following politics and life, will win on Saturday.

    98.6 ………………………….Labor
    Mick Quinlivin………… Labor
    Mabwm……………………..Labor
    Desie …………………………Labor
    Malcolm…………………… Labor
    Scott…………………………. Labor ( doubled downed)
    Newcastle Moderate …Labor (Minority)
    Ven……………………………. Labor (Minority)
    Voice Endeavour………..Labor (Thin Majority)
    Melb Mammoth…………Labor (Minority)
    Evan……………………………Labor (Minority)
    Outside Leftie…………….Labor (Majority)
    Political Night Wman…Labor (Minority)

    At this stage no one is saying Liberals to win.

    Have any of the above changed their mind ?
    Does anyone want to double down on their selection?
    Especially since the latest Resolve poll was released.

  14. We’ve also got the redux of the Swastika slowing making its way up into NSW courtesy of the Vi Libs drama.

    Alex Hawke isn’t very happy with Jean Claude for trying to branch stack him out of the federal house of reps. Get into a tangle with that devious and sneaky unhinged political animal at your own risk. The Premier is well and truly cooked.

    So sad its actually very funny with his off the cuff Saviour in the form of a 10kmph speed limit increase in one small road of the city. Im concered he is nolonger compos mentis. Is the NSW Premier actually an active contributor to PB under the ‘Lars von tries’ monkier? I’m concerned for his sanity

  16. Ch 7 news reports the Chinese built Sydney ferry made a sudden sharp turn to the left. Obviously an inbuilt feature designed to embarrass the Liberal government. Now if it could be reprogrammed to veer to the right…

  20. the candadate in bageries creek is garian thain son of long term penrith councilor John who has been arround for a long time labors focus is penrith where the party is running local cowncilor and former mayorkarin mckeown it seems the party is putting a lot of support behind mckeown andDonna davis in paramater hegarty in lepington and east hills plus holesworvy

  21. 98.6 – put me down for a Coalition minority government. But only because I want an ALP majority, and I don’t want to tempt fate!

  22. I think there will be a Labor minority government based on the ALP winning 44 seats. However, if I had to have a bet it would be a lazy $20 on a Coalition minority at $6.75.

  24. Another good discussion topic, similar to the federal election last year on Poll Bludger – what alcoholic beverages and or nice food are you going to indulge in on Saturday night, if you’re not at an election night party for a political candidate?

    Me, on the beers for sure on Saturday, watching Anthony Green and monitoring the results myself on the tablet or phone.

  26. I’m going to stick with Labor, I’ll say in minority. I think the Coalition will struggle to stay above 40 seats.

    The idea that Thain can win Badgerys Creek is laughable, as is Ayres at $3.50. It’s a genuine 50/50 contest and frankly Labor should be more concerned about Karen McKeown not declaring her interest as Deputy Chair of Active Super, who pay her $100k, while voting for Mirvac’s massive Glenmore Park development on Penrith Council, given Active Super are a shareholder.

  28. sprocket_says:
    Monday, March 20, 2023 at 7:04 pm
    98.6
    Coalition minority for me.
    …………………………………………………………………..
    Coming from someone whose posts I treat like Gospel, I ask you to double check your calculations, otherwise Labor may be in trouble.
    However, I’ll put you down as the first bludger to say the Coalition to win.

  30. BTSays says:
    Monday, March 20, 2023 at 7:13 pm
    Too early to predict for me.

    What is the deadline for submitting my ‘bet’?
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    6pm AEDT on this Saturday March 25th.

  31. 98.6 ………………………….Labor
    Mick Quinlivin………… Labor
    Mabwm……………………..Labor
    Desie …………………………Labor (Minority)(doubled downed)
    Malcolm…………………… Labor
    Scott…………………………. Labor (doubled downed)
    Newcastle Moderate …Labor (Minority)
    Ven……………………………. Labor (Minority)
    Voice Endeavour………..Labor (Thin Majority)
    Melb Mammoth…………Labor (Minority)
    Evan……………………………Labor (Minority)
    Outside Leftie…………….Labor (Majority)
    Political Night Wman…Labor (Minority)
    Leftie Brawler…………….Labor (Majority) 1-4 seats
    citizen…………………………Labor (Minority)
    Historyintime…………….Labor (Minority)

    sprocket………………………Coalition (Minority)
    Hugoaugogo……………….Coalition (Ambiguous)

  32. that poast show the liberals are getting desperate there is a local liberal cowncilor who had to resign from the bord of a major disability survice provider suprised it has not made the news

  33. Evan says:
    Monday, March 20, 2023 at 7:46 pm
    Another good discussion topic, similar to the federal election last year on Poll Bludger – what alcoholic beverages and or nice food are you going to indulge in on Saturday night, if you’re not at an election night party for a political candidate?
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    I never attend election night parties as I’m not a very nice person to be around when my side isn’t winning.

  34. I’m not sure that the NSW electorates have been de-moronised. Then again, what is particularly appealing about the ALP (apart from the requests for funds which clutter my inbox).
    I’ll go with Sprocket – coalition minority.

  36. It has been interesting watching the framing of the Nine SMH. The recent framing has been about ‘dull campaign’ and ‘same same’ which all feeds a narrative of why change or there is no urgency for change. Dom the pokie buster has morphed into ‘same same’ so why change. Its been interesting watching the change in tone.

  37. Those of you who have been on here over the years know I’m not on the same side of politics as most of you. You’ll also know my intel is sound. Here’s the reality – Coalition is bleeding from a thousand cuts. The only place they are holding up okay is the north of the Coathanger and that’s thanks to OPV more than anything else. Nats are in strife in 4 of their seats and there will be Liberal carnage in the outer suburbs and on the South Coast. If you want to talk about OMG-results, forget about Goulburn (that’s yesterday’s news) and start talking about Monaro, Myall Lakes, Camden and the margin (rather than the fact of ALP victory) in Bega and Heathcote. Nats on track to finish third in Orange and Barwon!
    Prediction:
    ALP 49
    Greens 3
    All Independents and ex-SFFs to be returned

  39. Having watched the presentation by Morgan linked by Shellbell at 5.05pm, I’m feeling a little more confident that it will be an ALP government, although getting to 47 seats and majority looks like a stretch. Interesting that the thing hurting Perrottet is not so much negative voter perception of him personally, but rather negative voter perception of the Liberal brand.

  41. From in the Cave I will predict that the ALP will get a comfortable working majority in the NSW Parliament.

    There has been enough dodgy behaviour recently from both the Libs and Nats, including ICAC findings and public transport disasters. That they have been there for what seems like eternity will have an “it’s time” factor. If there will be a federal infuence it will be positive.

  42. I can’t make up my mind. This election reminds me of 2007 in reverse. Except Minns is not Debnam and has not scared the horses.
    The problem, are people pissed off enough to vote the feckers out?
    Coalition minority or Labor landslide for me. I’ll mull over it. Bus users in the eastern suburbs are pissed off with no buses to the City. Are there enough of them to make a difference? 1 seat is marginal Labor. The other safe Labor so the Libs probably don’t care.
    I’ll probably be pissed one way or the other on Saturday night 🙂

  43. Media Watch advised people to watch Friendly Jordies to see some interesting Pork barreling boasting by Barilaro which should be another nail in the coffin of the Coalition government in NSW.

  44. Thanks ChrisfromEdgecliff. Confirms what I’ve been saying about Myall Lakes, it feels like the Nats are really worried, it’s going to be close but might be an independent gain!

  45. Aqualung. Yes, it is interesting as to whether there is an ‘anger’ level in order to turf them out. If you read some of the posts above then it seems that most bludgers certainly think so. I have observed the media presenting (Nine mainly) focusing on ‘same same’ and ‘not very exciting campaign’ and which feeds into the no mood for change (which they would quite enjoy).

    It will of course be interesting to see how it plays out.

  46. I was at Miranda RSL on election night 2007.
    Former NRL referee whose name I’ve forgotten. Annealed?
    TV cameras. Lots of libs. When I left my nephews 21st, nowhere to be seen.
    I smirked a lot but I also knew Labor should have lost.
    We all know what happened next. That’s why this election has a bit of that vibe.

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