Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)

A slow decline in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continues, as a date of April 1 is set for the Aston by-election.

The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll, from which I assume we will get voting intention numbers later today. The fact that The Age has a Resolve Strategic state poll from Victoria suggests a federal poll from that outfit should be with us shortly. For now, I can relate that the Essential poll has Anthony Albanese at 53% approval (down two on a month ago) and 34% disapproval (up three). The poll also finds 69% believe the Reserve Bank has overreacted with its interest rate increases, and 71% believe the federal government is largely or partly culpable, though it’s unclear if the question specified the current government. An even 29% believe Labor or the Coalition would do a better job managing interest rates, with 42% opting for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1044.

In other news, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Milton Dick, announced yesterday that the Aston by-election will be held on the inauspicious date of April 1, which is one week after the New South Wales state election (and two after the Arafura by-election in the Northern Territory). Labor has announced that it will again field its candidate from last year’s federal election, Mary Doyle, a finance worker and former organiser for the National Tertiary Education Union, who was the only candidate to nominate. The Age reports the Liberals are taking the preselection out of the hands of their unreliable rank-and-file, which presumably shortens the odds on barrister Roshena Campbell and lengthens them on Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 comments on “Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)”

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  1. Question for PB’s long list of NatSec lawyers would being paid by China to say nice things about it on a predominantly anonymous blog be an offence or an action requiring registration?

  2. Superannuation

    When Peter Costello made superannuation pension payments tax free to retirees over 60 in 2006? my accountant said “Enjoy it while it lasts, this is not sustainable”

    I have had a great 15 years paying no income tax on an income higher than I ever earned whilst working [hard]

  3. Robodebt gets a run in the ABC and the Guardian, of course, it’s a very big story. All the more surprising, then*, that it is being completely ignored in the Sydney Morning Herald, the National Rupert and the Daily Rupert. Disgraceful.

    * not really

  4. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham #Morgan NSW (state) 52-48 to Labor

    L-NP 35 ALP 32.5 Grn 9.5 ON 6.5 SFF 1.5 AJP 1.5 LC 1.0 LDP 0.5 Teal 0.5 others 11.5

    I estimate 51-49 to Labor (bit hard because of high unspecified Others vote which is probably a glorified dunno.)

  5. Why doesn’t The Sydney Morning Herald or The Age publish an analysis of how the Opposition Leader is doing?

    *No answer required*

  6. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham

    #Morgan federal supposedly 58.5 to ALP off ALP 37 L-NP 33 Green 13 others 17 but Morgan’s federal 2PPs are nonsense, no idea what they’re doing there, I get 56.0 by 2022 election preferences.

  7. poroti

    +1 on Ms Blake’s comments, especially how the whole ethic of her workplace changed under Robodebt & made her/their commitment to the public good useless. The last government f*cked everything they touched.

  8. Steve777 at 6:54 pm
    It is strange, I thought The Daily Rupert and the Herald Rupert loved nothing more than pumping out blazing headlines about Welfare ‘misdeeds’ 🙂

  9. Steve777 @ #354 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 6:54 pm

    Robodebt gets a run in the ABC and the Guardian, of course, it’s a very big story. All the more surprising, then*, that it is being completely ignored in the Sydney Morning Herald, the National Rupert and the Daily Rupert. Disgraceful.

    * not really

    Coverage of the Robodebt RC has been extremely disappointing! The whole episode represents egregious maladministration, designed to and having the greatest impact on the most vulnerable amongst us.

    The media really should hang its head in shame for not giving this greater exposure across the country.

  10. At least the L/NP are up front about their fossil fuel alliance.

    Labor is deceitful about theirs.

    Labor has just approved 116 new gas wells to be fracked by Santos in QLD.Not only that, Tanya Plibersek has given them the green light to operate until 2077.This isn’t what "ending the climate wars" looks like.Labor is making the climate crisis worse.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    Approval was granted on Friday.No media release. No statement. No regard for the climate.For a Government that likes to talk about integrity & transparency, this is straight out Morrison’s playbook.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    A reminder that Santos have donated at least $521,719 to Labor since 2015.Labor wants coal & gas corporations to keep polluting, profiting, and opening more mines.Labor is safeguarding coal and gas corporations' profits, not your future.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    It’s almost a year on since the devastating climate-induced floods in Lismore and the northern rivers, and this is how Labor wants to mark it.More gas. More destruction. More fuel on the fire.Enough.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    We’ll continue to push Labor to ensure Australia takes the climate action we need to keep our communities safer.And that starts at the bare minimum: no new coal & gas.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

  11. Interesting NSW Poll result there. Hard to see Labor winning with a Primary of 32.5 (if its true).

    Still I guess Albo did it with a record low primary – maybe OPP will be the difference.

  12. It is great that Bandt has now clarified the issues for all Australians.

    There can now be NO possible excuse for the Greens to pass ANY Labor climate action legislation.

    The Greens MUST block the lot. All of it. Every single skerrick of it. Every line of it. Every dollar of it. Every regulation of it MUST be disallowed.

    Otherwise the Greens will be just another set of Fossil Cartel Muppets.

  13. “It is great that Bandt has now clarified the issues for all Australians.

    There can now be NO possible excuse for the Greens to pass ANY Labor climate action legislation.

    The Greens MUST block the lot. All of it. Every single skerrick of it. Every line of it. Every dollar of it. Every regulation of it MUST be disallowed.”

    Well they are the only ones who aren’t in on the apparently corrupt graft, just for that reason alone would be enough surely?

  14. Boerwar
    What a pity the Greens don’t see the 5th dimensional chess of Labor’s reducing CO2 emissions by approving frickin’ coal seam gas frackers.

  15. Rex Douglas @ #362 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 6:05 pm

    At least the L/NP are up front about their fossil fuel alliance.

    Labor is deceitful about theirs.

    Labor has just approved 116 new gas wells to be fracked by Santos in QLD.Not only that, Tanya Plibersek has given them the green light to operate until 2077.This isn’t what "ending the climate wars" looks like.Labor is making the climate crisis worse.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    Approval was granted on Friday.No media release. No statement. No regard for the climate.For a Government that likes to talk about integrity & transparency, this is straight out Morrison’s playbook.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    A reminder that Santos have donated at least $521,719 to Labor since 2015.Labor wants coal & gas corporations to keep polluting, profiting, and opening more mines.Labor is safeguarding coal and gas corporations' profits, not your future.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    It’s almost a year on since the devastating climate-induced floods in Lismore and the northern rivers, and this is how Labor wants to mark it.More gas. More destruction. More fuel on the fire.Enough.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    We’ll continue to push Labor to ensure Australia takes the climate action we need to keep our communities safer.And that starts at the bare minimum: no new coal & gas.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    Does the act under which this approval was given include a climate trigger? If not, denial of the approval on global heating grounds could have been overturned on appeal.

    The Federal legislation on the environment relies on the Treaties power in the Constitution so there needs to be an appropriate ratified international treaty and Australian legislation relying on that treaty to enable the Feds to stop anything environment related.

    Hopefully there is something in place or a pathway to put it in place, but nothing in the media gives any indication about this.

    I’m not making any excuses for the decision but if we should be asking for new legislation rather than moaning that the government doesn’t just “do it” we need information about how it all fits together so our energies can be properly directed

  16. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 7:11 pm
    Interesting NSW Poll result there. Hard to see Labor winning with a Primary of 32.5 (if its true).
    ——————-
    As with federal and state/territory election
    With the lib/nats combined primary vote of 35% , Labor gets into government

  17. Scott – it is Morgan – so big proviso.

    But Labor got 33.3% primary in 2019 and lost. The difference on these figures is the Libs have lost about 6% primary vote – but its clearly not going to Labor.

  18. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 7:18 pm

    “It is great that Bandt has now clarified the issues for all Australians.

    There can now be NO possible excuse for the Greens to pass ANY Labor climate action legislation.

    The Greens MUST block the lot. All of it. Every single skerrick of it. Every line of it. Every dollar of it. Every regulation of it MUST be disallowed.”

    Well they are the only ones who aren’t in on the apparently corrupt graft, just for that reason alone would be enough surely?’
    ——————————
    Everyone, except for maybe a few dudded BlakGreens, knows that the ONLY pure party in
    Australia are the Greens.

    They only ever take donations from NIMBIES and that is alright cos koalas and the inner urban amenity of wealthy elites.

    There is ZERO excuse for Bandt getting into bed with Albanese and the Labor climate wreckers.

    30 years of Greens’ talk is dirt cheap.

    It is time for the Greens to actually stick with their principles. The Greens have been busy telling us that 43/30 is fakery.

    The Greens MUST block Labor’s pusillanimous attempt to fake getting to 43/30 and then zero net 50.

    Anyone can shout, scream and stunt. Anyone can posture, snark and savage. With words.

    The Greens have the golden chance to actually DO something.

    It is time for Bandt to put up.

    Or to STFU.

  19. No doubt Santos will export this gas and then argue it needs to mine the Liverpool Plains to solve the so called domestic shortage.Australia is the biggest exporter in the world ,there is no gas shortage.— Tony Windsor (@TonyHWindsor) February 21, 2023

    Yep.

    Labor are scamming their environmentalist rank and file.

  20. Rex Douglas @ #362 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 7:05 pm

    At least the L/NP are up front about their fossil fuel alliance.

    Labor is deceitful about theirs.

    Labor has just approved 116 new gas wells to be fracked by Santos in QLD.Not only that, Tanya Plibersek has given them the green light to operate until 2077.This isn’t what "ending the climate wars" looks like.Labor is making the climate crisis worse.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    Approval was granted on Friday.No media release. No statement. No regard for the climate.For a Government that likes to talk about integrity & transparency, this is straight out Morrison’s playbook.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    A reminder that Santos have donated at least $521,719 to Labor since 2015.Labor wants coal & gas corporations to keep polluting, profiting, and opening more mines.Labor is safeguarding coal and gas corporations' profits, not your future.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    It’s almost a year on since the devastating climate-induced floods in Lismore and the northern rivers, and this is how Labor wants to mark it.More gas. More destruction. More fuel on the fire.Enough.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    We’ll continue to push Labor to ensure Australia takes the climate action we need to keep our communities safer.And that starts at the bare minimum: no new coal & gas.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) February 21, 2023

    Thanks for this, Rex. Needs more exposure.

  21. ajm: “The Federal legislation on the environment relies on the Treaties power in the Constitution so there needs to be an appropriate ratified international treaty and Australian legislation relying on that treaty to enable the Feds to stop anything environment related.”

    The greens don’t care about laws.

  22. Just imagine if we had “Robotax”, sending out tax bills to random corporations and high income individuals for random amounts calculated upon criteria that were pretty dodgy at best, with evidence emerging that the whole thing was illegal. The mainstream media would be in meltdown.

  23. Lars there are similarity with the 2022 federal election Fed Lib/nats combined primary vote 41.5%
    Federal lib/nats went into the 2022 federal election with a minority government ,

    2023 NSW Lib/nats combined primary vote 41.5% going into 2023 state election with a minority government
    if the NSW lib/nats lose similar to what the fed lib/nats combined primary vote did
    They will not to be able form any kind of government
    Like their federal counterparts NSW lib/nats will lose too many seats

  24. Steve
    “ Robodebt gets a run in the ABC and the Guardian, of course, it’s a very big story. All the more surprising, then*, that it is being completely ignored in the Sydney Morning Herald, the National Rupert and the Daily Rupert. Disgraceful.”

    I think coverage of the Centrelink RC is a pretty good measure of whether a news source is worth reading. All the ones I read or subscribe to – ABC, Guardian, New Daily, The Saturday Paper, Crikey – have covered it regularly.

  25. sprocket: “Roshena Campbell is the liberal candidate for #aston #auspol”

    That’s no conflict of interest. Nothing to see here. Move along citizens. Move along.

  26. What a shock, the new Liberal nutbag MP Moira Deeming in Victoria who Matthew Guy tried to insist when she was running for office didn’t still hold with her past nutbag views… is still a nutbag.

    First test for John Pesutto – are you running a centre-right party or the gay-bashing religious extremist party?

  27. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 8:01 pm
    Karvelas tweets..

    Roshena Campbell is the liberal candidate for #aston #auspol
    ——————————————-

    Wife of newsltd hack James Campbell , the liberal party will need well over 40% in the primary vote

    Will they get it ?

  28. Re Socrates @7:56. “coverage of the Centrelink RC is a pretty good measure of whether a news source is worth reading.…

    That’s a very good point. It needs wider circulation.

  29. Yay, hopefully Roshena Campbell will no longer darken the pages of The Age and as as two for one the good burghers of Aston will reject the carpetbagger who doesn’t live there or have anything to do with the place and Keneally her.

    I suspect it won’t happen and she’ll get her happy taxpayer funded sinecure because the margin in Aston is artificially low due to Tudge’s scandals and now he’s gone, but….

  30. Socrates

    Once upon a time AAP would have had a reporter in the RC all day every day. It’s what they did.
    I’m not sure the new AAP has the resources to do that. I suspect not.
    They would be there for the big name witnesses, ex Ministers etc, but maybe a senior public servant (other than Kathryn Campbell or Anette Musolino) doesn’t get coverage.
    After all, nobody knows what they are going to be asked or say.
    I’ve noted that when the Nine papers run something on line it’s often AAP copy.
    I’ve followed Rick Morton a bit on Twitter and he did once make reference to an ABC reporter being regular attendee.
    But that probably doesn’t excite the TV news directors unless there’s a rock star witness.
    The ABC on-line report I linked to is a pretty comprehensive summary of the day.
    We have the media we deserve.
    When people stopped buying papers (or in the case of Murdoch continued to ) or refused to pay for on line (or in the case of Murdoch signed up) thousands of journalists lost their jobs.
    It’s not excuses, it’s reality.

    Edit: I subscribe to most of those you mentioned.

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