Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)

A slow decline in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continues, as a date of April 1 is set for the Aston by-election.

The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll, from which I assume we will get voting intention numbers later today. The fact that The Age has a Resolve Strategic state poll from Victoria suggests a federal poll from that outfit should be with us shortly. For now, I can relate that the Essential poll has Anthony Albanese at 53% approval (down two on a month ago) and 34% disapproval (up three). The poll also finds 69% believe the Reserve Bank has overreacted with its interest rate increases, and 71% believe the federal government is largely or partly culpable, though it’s unclear if the question specified the current government. An even 29% believe Labor or the Coalition would do a better job managing interest rates, with 42% opting for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1044.

In other news, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Milton Dick, announced yesterday that the Aston by-election will be held on the inauspicious date of April 1, which is one week after the New South Wales state election (and two after the Arafura by-election in the Northern Territory). Labor has announced that it will again field its candidate from last year’s federal election, Mary Doyle, a finance worker and former organiser for the National Tertiary Education Union, who was the only candidate to nominate. The Age reports the Liberals are taking the preselection out of the hands of their unreliable rank-and-file, which presumably shortens the odds on barrister Roshena Campbell and lengthens them on Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 thoughts on “Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 7 of 10
1 … 6 7 8 … 10

  1. Socrates

    I think that was what Greggery was aluding to, asking witness if anybody had been sanctioned in AG Dept for not complying with the legal services directions. I took that to mean not doing their job.

    It was a serious matter, he said.

    The answer was no.

  2. Watching this long-serving customer compliance officer explain the changes that came with the robodebt scheme is really illuminating. She and her peers know from the get-go that averaging was fallacious, that they were turned from being public servants into being frustrated call centre workers, that staff morale immediately plummeted, that callers were generally angry and abusive (understandably), that staff’s mental well-being was compromised.
    This is HORRIBLE.
    The managers knew all about it and did nothing! Why?

  4. The RC now has a junior Centrelink officer saying what it was like on the front line dealing with RoboDebt clients.

    Dreadful testimony

  5. Yep thats right. Change the tax on super for the young ones in accumulation phase but dont change anything for the retirees. What a winning strategy. Gee. Seriously?

    This whole thing smells like a communications failure from the Govt. If they are not ready for the debate with the proposed solutions then do not open it up for a coalition scare campaign until you are ready.

  7. ‘The Boost Board’!?! I bet that was a concept imported from one of the big 4 Consultancies like McKinsey, E&Y, or PwC. Constant interviews about KPIs!

  8. What robodebt royal commission is showing what is more pathetic than Morrison and his cronies , the friendly corrupt lib/nats media units and their hacks , protecting Morrison and his cronies

  9. We are now hearing from the compliance officer about the method of management of the “call centre” using shame boards. My Avatar would die in his grave!
    This is getting worse and worse as the testimony continues.

  16. i am in tears listening to that CSO tell her story. This was an evil government that did evil things. The public service needs a complete cleanout. It is corrupt and has been politicised beyond recognition

  17. Steve777

    Tudge was another member of Scott Morrison’s parliamentary prayer group who set out to bully and beat down the weakest and most defenceless people in Australian society.

    Plus of course ‘Brother Stewie’ . True believers in arse about tit Xtianity.

  19. yabba to Lars: “ You and Peta would make a lovely pair.”

    Lars might have to fight a former amateur boxer for that privilege. 😉

  20. The evidence given by this witness is typical of what happens in the Public Service when decisions made by people higher up the chain have no idea what those at the coal face do. It happened time and time again where I worked and we at the coal face had to fix up the mess created by those decisions. some things never change.

  22. Another very important point made by the Mornington CSO was that her office was a strong union place of work and it was the union that helped them deal with the most egregious aspects of Robodebt.

    So never question why Tory governments want to destroy the Union Movement.

  24. I don’t know what conclusions the Commissioner will come to. My own view is that certain senior officers of one department went rogue and all the checks and balances that should have existed did not work – through fear, overwork, lack of attention to detail, things falling off the to-do pile.

    In retrospect there are many people who could have done a lot more but didn’t. But at its heart, the income averaging scheme was fundamentally unethical and immoral and those in charge of it, including at ministerial level should have seen how obvious that was. Because staff at the coal-face, like Ms Blake this afternoon and Colleen Taylor some weeks ago clearly knew it and tried to send the message up the line. By that stage though, those above did not want to know.

    There really needs to be a revisiting of the APS code of conduct and expectations of officers at all levels, but especially senior ones. But at the end of the day if the culture is “do what I say without arguing or find another job” then all the rule changes and new management techniques will make no difference in the world.

  25. Boerwar @ #322 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 5:51 pm

    I assume that at least some posters on Bludger are Chinese-based influencers.

    These would be the ones who routinely ape The Global Times and always and without fail attack the US for anything and everything while turning a 100% blind eye to China’s behaviours.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/21/china-is-carrying-out-blatant-influence-operations-in-australia-malcolm-turnbull-says

    No names, no pack drill but I could have a pretty accurate guess as to who they might be on PB.

    I will say, because he’s no longer around, that zoidlord fit the bill to a ‘T’.

  27. TPOF @ 12.01 PM

    “What seems to be a thread through all the evidence of ministers, staffers and public servants (other than ones at the coal face) is that they had absolutely no idea of how a typical income support recipient lived and the challenges in their lives.”

    This is a direct consequence of the way in which so many MPs now come from a professional political class, sustained by the Members of Parliament (Staff) Act. Tudge is a prime example: student politician, political staffer, think tanker, pre-selected. It’s also the basis of the appeal of the Teals, most of whom have spent at least some time in the real world. The MOP(S) Act and its state equivalents have been thoroughly damaging to Australian politics. There’s little prospect of improvement, because so many of the MPs whose votes would be needed to change the system are themselves products of it.

  28. BK at 5:33 pm
    Yep, No.8 Eliminate fear . Reading through your avatar’s 14 points again the testimony so far would have him able to power a city given how much he’d be spinning in his grave.

  32. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/02/21/essential-research-poll-and-aston-by-election-latest-open-thread/comment-page-7/#comment-4066706

    MLC isn`t an executive position, unlike POTUS.

    Nile is running without a registered party, unlike Biden would be, so he has effectively no chance of winning, unlike Biden.

    The combination of proportional representation, preferences and differing levels of support mean that Nile probably isn`t preventing a better candidate from running, something not nearly as easily said about Biden.

  33. Had to go out again and missed last witness. Pity by sound of it.

    And all the time Henk Jongen was telling people to get on the phone to Centrelink, or visit their local office and it would be sorted out.

  35. Re Wranslide @5:29. ” Yep thats right. Change the tax on super for the young ones in accumulation phase but dont change anything for the retirees. What a winning strategy. Gee. Seriously?”

    That is not what I’m suggesting.

  36. Cat, Boerwar

    Worrying about the USA (and Ukraine), while Xi Jinping, Putin and Kim are running countries with nuclear weapons is an absurd double standard.

  37. Meher Babe @ 4.42pm
    You’ve returned from your sabbatical with a little more steal in your words from a stealy starting point.

    It would appear to be unlikely at this stage that Albanese and Chalmers could consider a complete “stuff up” in regard to superannuation as they have “time” on their side.

    There is much to be rectified to steady the “ship of state” post Morrison and Co.

    A “stooge” is not a description that would fit neatly onto your persona and your contributions to debates generally are appreciated.

  41. Goll

    Meher Baba back to talk about one of his favourites, superannuation.

    He mentioned Robodebt the other week.

    I wonder if he was watching today.

  42. C@tmomma @ Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 6:31 pm:
    “I think I’m getting tingles ”
    ===================

    Peter Dutton, you just keep doing you. 😆

  43. ‘On Tuesday, Biden will make his second trip in a year to the Polish capital. He’s slated to give a hotly anticipated speech from Warsaw’s Royal Castle where he will reiterate how the United States under his leadership galvanized much of the West and NATO in defense of Ukraine, a solidarity that he and other officials within the transatlantic alliance insist will endure. The address is set to take place the same day as a parallel speech from Putin to Russia’s Federal Assembly. Biden’s remarks “will be of world dimension,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said over the weekend.’

    The Washington Post

  44. Enough Already,
    This should give YOU tingles. Australia has signed the letter to the IOC about Russian and Belarusian athletes. 🙂

  46. The inquiry heard that by the middle of 2019, Menzies-McVey was aware of three legal opinions that suggested the scheme was unlawful.

    Greggery said the failure to stop the scheme while they sought the solicitor general’s opinion had “very significant consequences” for welfare recipients and Menzies-McVey must have “appreciated that”.

    “I’m not sure my mind turned to that,” Menzies-McVey replied.

    The Commiss should have asked him to explain (in one sentence) why he even held the job.

    And then whack! Ms Blakes knocks the ball out of the park.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/21/government-lawyer-did-not-turn-his-mind-to-significant-consequences-of-continuing-robodebt-inquiry-told

  47. C@tmomma @ Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 6:36 pm:
    “Enough Already,
    This should give YOU tingles. Australia has signed the letter to the IOC about Russian and Belarusian athletes. ”
    ============

    Thank you, C@t! 🙂

  48. Most importantly if the Chinese want to pay for influencers on this board I’m happy to be contacted, they’d already know who I am and where I live. I could even make a new handle and pretend to be nice and friendly and try to convince people of things, I’d be unrecognisable and well worth $20 – 30k USD a week.

    Secondly the Australian political system has a real problem with donor money, and a massive problem with hydrocarbon money, and every single positive decision will look like it was bought with donor money, that is every single positive decision will look corrupt and the decision maker will look like they’ve sold the future of our kids for a few hundred k or less.

    Now I’m not say it is corrupt I’m just saying it looks corrupt and voters are entitled to treat it as corrupt and vote out politicians who look corrupt.

    If we don’t stop the money for legislation / positive decision stuff we’ll end up like the USA where both sides of politics are effectively owned and more and more of the population knows it.

    There is nothing more corrosive to democracy.

  49. WASHINGTON — During the Cold War, American strategists feared the Soviet Union was outpacing the United States in arms production, potentially leading to a so-called missile gap. Now, U.S. officials are worried about a literal gap called near space and China’s growing presence there.

    High above earth, but below orbiting satellites, the United States and China are testing new defense systems. China’s exploitation of the zone with aerial craft and advanced munitions suggests it is pulling ahead of its superpower rival in important ways.

    This little-known and little-seen strategic contest over near space — a phrase that is suddenly on the lips of every other American politician and policymaker — is increasingly critical for the honing of advanced warfare and certain types of espionage.

    Near space is liminal space, a stratospheric netherworld where no international law applies and no military force holds dominance, where hypersonic missiles and space planes fly and surveillance balloons drift without being picked up by radars.

    The Chinese military, which has surprised the United States with uses of hypersonic missiles and balloons, has focused for years on developing capabilities in near space, generally thought of as 60,000 feet to 330,000 feet above earth — or 11 miles to 62 miles — where no civilian aircraft fly.

    U.S. military commanders, policymakers and legislators warn that China may have surpassed them in thinking strategically about that zone and in deploying assets, and that the United States needs to address looming issues there.

    Free to read the rest:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/us/politics/china-us-balloons-ufo.html?unlocked_article_code=knSqy3_OIw1erym8j64mPkqFmOJmIGQqTO8RPIra4G1e_7HG7LAJLdFCrvB0agotFOsZuz0I7fivc5AaP1umSllQvVLOkSPhWRE_GDUiu08g7EuNVavlpaaMKqGXMf2gtPM79-nZSCcPd0IDdEL2cjeyf8562ESJx8QP4sxd94MphhWSZrQvonMni7147wezrbDnLE1xpkdGQkS9T9dnrrpnkBXgKgwluGXsBcNIPCMu8gdtWsbS5v34LpV3aChz5_zhMZyYkPQHKmhv4Au_5TQERFyacgOmHejs3LWIFP6MIzrFl4JOJuJaS4FwKzpJdU3Pq0c5owBZbTMwA_BDXJg2iw&smid=url-share

Comments Page 7 of 10
1 … 6 7 8 … 10

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *