Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)

A slow decline in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continues, as a date of April 1 is set for the Aston by-election.

The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll, from which I assume we will get voting intention numbers later today. The fact that The Age has a Resolve Strategic state poll from Victoria suggests a federal poll from that outfit should be with us shortly. For now, I can relate that the Essential poll has Anthony Albanese at 53% approval (down two on a month ago) and 34% disapproval (up three). The poll also finds 69% believe the Reserve Bank has overreacted with its interest rate increases, and 71% believe the federal government is largely or partly culpable, though it’s unclear if the question specified the current government. An even 29% believe Labor or the Coalition would do a better job managing interest rates, with 42% opting for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1044.

In other news, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Milton Dick, announced yesterday that the Aston by-election will be held on the inauspicious date of April 1, which is one week after the New South Wales state election (and two after the Arafura by-election in the Northern Territory). Labor has announced that it will again field its candidate from last year’s federal election, Mary Doyle, a finance worker and former organiser for the National Tertiary Education Union, who was the only candidate to nominate. The Age reports the Liberals are taking the preselection out of the hands of their unreliable rank-and-file, which presumably shortens the odds on barrister Roshena Campbell and lengthens them on Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 comments on “Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)”

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  1. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 9:44 pm

    Boerwar

    Just think! You would have got yourself a tiny, tiny nod in the Chinese intelligence directorate that hoovers up domestic and foreign social media. Well done you!

    Rest easy, those ‘nods’ are overwhelmed by the ‘nods’ you will be earning from the ‘Mercan’ ones.’
    ——————————-
    LOL.

    I don’t know anybody, Assange aside, who is frightened to visit the US.

    I know quite a few people who will not visit China because they literally fear for their safety. Because of what they have said in a country with free speech. These are serious people who think serious things and say things with serious intent. Under current conditions I will not be transiting through Hong Kong again. Something I used to enjoy doing very much. Not to worry, though comrade. You’d be right.

  2. Serious Question. Are there likely to be people held to account for Robodebt in the public service (the politicians should be held to account of course) Do all of these people still have their jobs? I know about Campbell.

  3. Boerwar

    Yes Death of Stalin is a cracker, while being disturbingly true.

    Perhaps it is too soon for a black comedy of the Putin regime, with various oligarchs mysteriously falling out of high windows all over Moscow?

  4. Boerwar

    You may have a life. LOL

    This story has fascinated and angered me from when it first started dribbling into the media and it basically ended a budding friendship with somebody who just declared they were all dole bludgers and should be in jail.

    I may not believe in much that’s fashionable but I believe Governments need to help those less fortunate. I’d rather nine people got something they might not be 100 percent entitled to than have one miss out because of sheer nastiness of those in charge.

    I’m not overly religious but “do unto others as you would have them do unto you” is a good motto for life I reckon.

    and the fact that this scheme was endorsed by so-called Christians led by Morrison angers me all the more.

  5. Boerwar

    LOL.

    I don’t know anybody, Assange aside, who is frightened to visit the US.

    —-

    I am not too keen on the gun culture and given the mass shootings which happen so regularly which the Government is paralysed by and neglectful of its duty to stop, it sounds a fairly unsafe place to me. But maybe you like that stuff?

  6. ‘wranslide says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 9:53 pm

    Serious Question. Are there likely to be people held to account for Robodebt in the public service (the politicians should be held to account of course) Do all of these people still have their jobs? I know about Campbell.’
    ————————————-
    I have been mulling that over and I am not sanguine.
    There are two avenues. The first is APS Code of Conduct. The second is criminal conduct. What crime has anyone actually committed that anyone would be convicted of?
    You could probably run some APS Code of Conduct investigations and you would probably snaffle some lower front office managers for bastardizing workers such as she who gave evidence today. Small beer. Some, at least, of the middle managers would also have been victims of top down bastardy.

  7. Cat at 9.24 pm

    Putin’s speech has only just finished. See BBC or Guardian summary:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-64713099

    “Putin announces that Russia has suspended participation from the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty – a strategic arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia signed in 2002.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/21/russia-ukraine-war-biden-arrives-in-poland-putin-to-make-state-of-the-nation-address-live#top-of-blog

  8. ‘wranslide says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 9:57 pm

    Boerwar

    LOL.

    I don’t know anybody, Assange aside, who is frightened to visit the US.

    —-

    I am not too keen on the gun culture and given the mass shootings which happen so regularly which the Government is paralysed by and neglectful of its duty to stop, it sounds a fairly unsafe place to me. But maybe you like that stuff?’
    ———————-
    I take you point. My point is a bit different. In the US you would be just another random victim. In China you would be targeted for what you said in Australia.

  9. I admire the fact that you are still on top of what has, for me, turned into a sort of half-digested mass of individual and group bad behaviours.

    The first rule of 21st century propaganda is to flood the zone until people become bored and distracted.

  10. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 10:00 pm

    I admire the fact that you are still on top of what has, for me, turned into a sort of half-digested mass of individual and group bad behaviours.

    The first rule of 21st century propaganda is to flood the zone until people become bored and distracted.’
    ——————
    I doubt that that is what the RC peeps are trying to do.

  11. Boerwar @ #462 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 10:01 pm

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 10:00 pm

    I admire the fact that you are still on top of what has, for me, turned into a sort of half-digested mass of individual and group bad behaviours.

    The first rule of 21st century propaganda is to flood the zone until people become bored and distracted.’
    ——————
    I doubt that that is what the RC peeps are trying to do.

    No, but it was a general comment to wit, the price of freedom from ‘Robodebts’ in the future is eternal vigilance now. 🙂

  12. Dr Doolittle @ #459 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 9:59 pm

    Cat at 9.24 pm

    Putin’s speech has only just finished. See BBC or Guardian summary:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-64713099

    “Putin announces that Russia has suspended participation from the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty – a strategic arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia signed in 2002.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/21/russia-ukraine-war-biden-arrives-in-poland-putin-to-make-state-of-the-nation-address-live#top-of-blog

    The ABC cut away from him. Oh, and I don’t believe he was adhering to the START anyway.

  13. poroti @ #456 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 9:58 pm

    For something random. An interesting look at the social differences. The issue of ‘Coloured soldiers’ comes up @ about 25 minutes. What said they 80 years ago ?

    WW2 Training Film for US Soldiers | How to Behave in Britain | 1943

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltVtnCzg9xw&t=58s

    As my late Mother used to say, the common opinion of US soldiers in England was that they “were overpaid, oversexed and over here”. Having said that two of my aunts married Canadian Servicemen.

  14. G’day all, just got an hour of torrential rain in Sydney, has calmed down now, this weather is crazy!
    Just wondering, does anyone here still watch Q&A or the Drum? I was looking at the TV ratings for Monday night. Q&A’s audience figures are dismal, a long way from the glory days of Tony Jones when the show ruled the roost and often created news stories of its own! Stan Grant to me as host is a major turnoff, far too smug. I watched the program last night and other than Jelena Dokic, it was frankly an hour of tedium, and the attempted gotcha on Michelle Rowland over the Sportsbet donation to her was pathetic, to be frank!
    As for The Drum, it has its moments and John Barron isn’t a bad addition to their hosting roster this year, but it’s just a niche program for lefties like me, I can see why it will never have wider appeal.

  15. Wranslide

    Apart from a couple of retirees I think of, many of the public servant witnesses are still working for the Government. Some in more senior roles. Though it’s not always mentioned.
    Greggery asked the AG Dept witness today if anybody had been “sanctioned’ for what appeared to be clear breaches of regulations.
    The answer was no.
    That may change.
    You have to remember that from the time Robodebt was abandoned in late 2019 until last May the attitude of the Liberals was “nothing to see here.”
    When the RC was announced one frontbencher called it a witch hunt.

  16. The ABC cut away from him.

    Is there anything that ABC24 doesn’t cut away from?! (Apart from endless repeats of the “headlines” and weather.)

  17. Q: Americans, in america, are the second friendliest people in the world. Right behind the Thais.

    For me I would go Iranians Number 1 and Armenians No 2….and last is easy, the British, unpleasant from the moment of landing to leaving.

  18. Boerwar @ 9.53 says
    I don’t know anybody, Assange aside, who is frightened to visit the US.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    What about Roman Polanski?

  19. Q: I don’t know anybody, Assange aside, who is frightened to visit the US.

    I have been to about 60 countries, only 2 where I ever felt afraid or threatened- the US and Brazil. Wont be going back to either ever again.

  20. I always think of the Flaming Lips whenever I hear her name….
    ***************************
    Her name is Roshena,
    She’s a black belt in writing dribble. (Hey hey)
    The council of Melbourne City,
    Is nowhere near Wantirna,
    ‘Cause she knows that it’s demanding
    To defeat the ALP
    I know she shouldn’t beat them
    Oh Roshena they don’t believe me
    But you don’t know where Rowville is
    Roshena I don’t believe ya
    But you won’t park at Westfield Knox City
    Roshena.

  21. Just caught up with this afternoons robodebt RC.

    heavy stuff. – Frankly, it should be the top news on the ABC. And the journalists who are hounding Britney Higgins should be chasing after Scomo taking photo’s of him living it up whilst this occurs.

  22. Evansays:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 10:09 pm
    G’day all, just got an hour of torrential rain in Sydney, has calmed down now, this weather is crazy!
    Just wondering, does anyone here still watch Q&A or the Drum? I was looking at the TV ratings for Monday night. Q&A’s audience figures are dismal, a long way from the glory days of Tony Jones when the show ruled the roost and often created news stories of its own! Stan Grant to me as host is a major turnoff, far too smug. I watched the program last night and other than Jelena Dokic, it was frankly an hour of tedium, and the attempted gotcha on Michelle Rowland over the Sportsbet donation to her was pathetic, to be frank!
    As for The Drum, it has its moments and John Barron isn’t a bad addition to their hosting roster this year,
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    I stopped watching Q&A about 2 years ago after religiously watching since it started.
    A great concept at the time but I doubt we will see it back next year or finish this year for that matter.
    I don’t have a problem with Stan but the show is tired and is simply talking heads.
    When they have a politician on I know exactly how they will answer a question, doesn’t matter what side of politics they are from. The Tories are the worst though.
    My daughter asked a question one night and got the better of a premier.
    Maybe they could have one person on the panel who is just your average guy next door neighbour type who is not known for being famous.

    Preceding it we have my favourite 4 Corners which I have been watching for its full sixty years, ever since a primary school friend ask me if I saw the 4 Corners show last night where a reporter asked a prostitute in King’s Cross if she enjoys her work.
    Now back in those days that was a journalist pushing the boundaries.
    Even as a child I thought that’s the sort of TV I want to watch.

    And of course there is Media Watch to finish off my ABC Monday night viewing.
    I’ve said many time before that “If I was God, I would force everyone on earth to watch it”.
    The best 20 minutes of TV all week, bar none.

  23. On the subject of Q&A, I know they do something similar, sometimes, but I would like to see only one person on the panel like a Premier, PM, Opp Leader State or federal RBA Gov, GG etc.
    Not necessarily to grill them on policy but to see what makes them tick.
    Some detractors of Chriss Minns, usually Tories, say that he is not well known to the voters, which IO think is bull, but for those who don’t know him, Labor or Liberal voters, here is a chance to see how he lives his life outside of politics in Q&A format.
    Maybe even 2 or 3 or more premiers.
    Some may see that as ABC bias because after March 25th, chances are all Premiers will be Labor except for that tiny island state way way down under, down under.
    What’s it called?

  24. Rossmeg @ 9.56 PM
    I’m not overly religious but “do unto others as you would have them do unto you” is a good motto for life I reckon.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Why do some bloggers have to bring SEX into every conversation?

  25. “I am not too keen on the gun culture and given the mass shootings which happen so regularly which the Government is paralysed by and neglectful of its duty to stop, it sounds a fairly unsafe place to me. But maybe you like that stuff?”

    There military border service is pretty dangerous and nasty as well.

    You’d have to have a pretty white privileged background to not be concerned.

  26. The Guardian’s report on the selection of the Liberal candidate for Aston notes that one of the unsuccessful contenders, Ranjana Srivastava, is an ‘oncologist and Guardian columnist’.

    Very worthy to declare that interest. A tad over-cautious, perhaps, given that Srivastava won’t actually be contesting the election, but hey …

    Odd, then, that the same article conspicuously fails to mention that Roshena Campbell — who actually will be contesting the election — is married to a journalist.

    Not someone who pens an occasional column on a niche topic, mind you, but a national political editor with News Corp, FFS.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/21/aston-byelection-barrister-roshena-campbell-selected-as-liberal-candidate

  27. Good on the Poles for welcoming refugee Ukrainians with warm hearts and strong arms, and for President Biden for his prominent acknowledgement of them;

    “While Biden’s speech was a rallying cry for democracies in general, it was also a pledge of solidarity with Poland, which has emerged as a crucial ally of Washington and Kyiv over the past 12 months.

    He called on the Poles in the crowd to look at each other and acknowledge the enormity of their achievement in hosting more than 1.5 million refugees.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/joe-biden-russian-forces-disarray-year-war-ukraine

  28. C@t, you certainly had the good oil yesterday on our country’s firm support for the exclusion of Russian and Belarusian athletes from the 2024 Paris Olympics:

    “MELBOURNE, Feb 21 (Reuters) – The Australian government said on Tuesday it was aligned with 34 other nations on the call for the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to ban Russian and Belarusian athletes from its competitions, despite not being marked as a signatory to the statement.

    The British government issued the joint statement on Monday on behalf of “more than 30 like-minded nations”, which held a summit addressed by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy this month.

    Australia was a signatory to two statements on the matter which were agreed by “35 like-minded nations” last year but was the only one of those countries not represented in Monday’s new pledge.

    A spokesman for the Australian Sports Ministry told Reuters that Australia’s absence was an administrative error and that the government was in accord with the sentiments expressed in the statement.”

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/australia-aligned-with-other-nations-russia-belarus-athlete-ban-2023-02-21/

    As I was hoping, just a simple mistake. I am very relieved this morning. It is important Russia not be afforded opportunities for propagandising their aggressive imperialist interests, and that they not be allowed to profit in competition from their elimination of so many Ukrainian competitors through their invasion and occupation.

  29. Re: Roald Dahl.
    This “Sensitivity Readers” stuff must be the most stupid, woke nonsense of all time!
    Did any of these “SRs” actually read the The BGF?
    If they had they may have noticed that The BGF wore a dark cloak, as a disguise, for when he ventured into the human world.
    As a former teacher – I can tell these “SRs” that one of the most enduring and popular authors for primary children was Roald Dahl.
    Children roared with delight at the character descriptions he created and was a great introduction towards developing descriptive writing of their own.
    Children applied the ‘bullshit detector” and were very easily able to decipher the world of fiction and imagination from the real world in which they inhabited.
    Furthermore, his books were an entry point for 100s of reluctant readers, mostly boys, to engage with the reading process.
    Do yourselves a huge favour and rush to your nearest bookstore and buy as many of these books for your children and grandchildren before the sanitised, woke editions are published.
    The fabulous English cartoon, from earlier, summed it up, perfectly.

  30. C@tmomma @ 6.31pm.
    Fabulous Morgan Polling result.
    Fits very neatly with the Kevin Bonham analysis – and puts the disreputable Essential Polling back in its box.
    A rough extrapolation from this data would increase the ALP margin to close to 100 seats, not including Independent or Green seats within this margin, making Capricornia the LNP’s most marginal seat.

  31. Re the Roald Dahl kerfuffle.

    You can’t really blame Puffin Books and whoever holds the publishing rights (apparently Netflix? or did I misread something) for taking pre-emptive action to avoid Dahl’s books being cancelled. The woke brigade can’t keep books out of the bookshops, but they wield an increasingly powerful influence over what appears on the shelves of school and local libraries, which are a crucial part of the marketing strategy for any children’s book.

    If you don’t like this stuff, it’s no good complaining to the publishers. The real villians are the government and municipal bureaucrats who try to impose their woke agenda on schools and libraries and, consequently, the politicians who appoint those bureaucrats.

    However, like me, most of you would be unlikely to change your vote over such a minor issue. So I’m afraid we’ll all have to put up with quite a bit more of this until perhaps the ardour of the woke warriors starts to fade a little bit.

    A slightly disturbing feature of the changes to Dahl’s books is that apparently it’s no longer acceptable in Wokestan to make fun of people for being fat or bald. Well, there goes three thousand years of comedy history straight out the window: Aristophanes, Terence, Plautus, Shakespeare, Gilbert and Sullivan, the Marx Brothers, etc, etc.

    I also didn’t much appreciate the imposition of woke rules even onto the reading choices of the characters of Dahl’s novels: eg, Matilda is now prohibited from reading Rudyard Kipling and is instead required to read Jane Austen. I guess it was only a concern to avoid appearing anachronistic that the censors didn’t have her reading the collected works of Ibram X Kendi.

  32. As long as Putin continues to pursue his mad 20th Century dreams. the more he destroys Russia.
    This is a very good youtube item by Perun that explains this well. Perun uses a very easy manner, irony and clear explanations to get his points across. It is well worth a listen.

    Perun

    Description
    An Australian covering the military-industrial complex and national military investment strategy.

    Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, I’ve been covering lessons from the conflict and how they may inform the future investment decisions that other nations may or should make.

    This is an excellent video that discusses the damage Putin is doing to Ukraine.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94bqk8cB9iQ&t=3s

  33. Hey, “woke” is a verb, as in ‘I woke up.’

    Who the hell started this degenerate trend of using it as an adjective or a noun?

  34. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 8:37 pm
    Rossmcg
    Yes I understand re paper subscriptions and the number of journalists employed. That is why I subscribe to a few. We used to get The Age but after they gutted it we switched. There seemed no point to subscribing to news outlets that are mere propaganda outlets for causes I despise.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    I have been subscribed to my News Corp paper for 40 years and just recently signed up for another 12 months at $48 for 4 weeks.
    Unfortunately, I can’t switch as in Brisbane we only have one daily but I do get great pleasure in reading how frustrating ALL the commentators are as they whinge and whine and moan about Labor this and Labor that.
    I keep yelling out to them as I read, SUFFER BABY SUFFER .
    With Albo in for another 2 years and 3 months and PAP in for another year plus 8 months, not to mention Dan in for 4 more years, Peter in SA for almost 4 and Marcus in WA for another 3, I almost feel sorry for the poor buggers. NOT.
    Yes, all the usual suspects Credlin, Bolt, Barnyard’s ex media adviser etc,etc.
    It doesn’t really matter they are all suffering.
    How will their sanity prevail when Minns becomes premier, as the polls are predicting.
    I can just see them all mouthing the last words of Colonel Kurtz from the movie Apocalypse Now, “The Horror, The Horror” as they realise their raison d’etre is extinguised.

  35. Steve777says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 7:43 pm
    Just imagine if we had “Robotax”, sending out tax bills to random corporations and high income individuals for random amounts calculated upon criteria that were pretty dodgy at best, with evidence emerging that the whole thing was illegal. The mainstream media would be in meltdown.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Not unlike some of the junk mail I get, eg your anti-virus subscription has expired and as you have not paid your invoice of $— it will be cancelled, or your parcel can’t be delivered until you pay the release fee of $—.
    As crazy as it may seem lots of people pay up not knowing they are scams.
    A few years ago there were scammers who would send bills to companies, large and small, demanding late payment for (non existing ) supplies or they would face legal proceedings.
    It was not uncommon for some to pay up, only to find down the track that it was a scam.

    Sounds a bit like your ‘ROBOTAX’.

  36. Something I haven’t heard anyone comment on yet is the % of voters who will vote against a party which has made them front up for yet another vote due to its former member having to resign in utter shame.
    Many will not forget that less than 9 months ago they voted for a former minister who was caught committing adultery with his media adviser (a woman) presumably on the pretext of giving him another chance.
    So because the liberals didn’t kick him out before the election and now the adulterer has quit in disgrace, they have to trudge back again.
    I hope all those who voted for Tudge are pissed off at him and the liberal party and show their displeasure by voting Labor.
    What’s it worth in percentages?
    I would think around 15%.

    Pity the electorate of Aston didn’t kick Tudge out like he kicked a naked Rochelle Miller out of the bed they were sleeping in when on a work trip to WA.
    SHAME, SHAME, DOUBLE SHAME!

  37. “ But she has tenuous links to the seat, having only represented businesses in Aston through her work as a lawyer. The 38-year-old Melbourne City councillor and mother-of-three lives 40 kilometres away in Brunswick, in Melbourne’s inner north, prompting some Liberal MPs to question whether she will resonate with voters, spooked by Labor’s unsuccessful attempts to parachute Kristina Keneally into the seat of Fowler.”

    From today’s Age.

    The libs couldn’t find a Woman who lives in the electorate? They had to go with someone who’d heard of it! I’m a barrister too. I have a client from central NSW, perhaps I should run in the NSW election.

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