The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll, from which I assume we will get voting intention numbers later today. The fact that The Age has a Resolve Strategic state poll from Victoria suggests a federal poll from that outfit should be with us shortly. For now, I can relate that the Essential poll has Anthony Albanese at 53% approval (down two on a month ago) and 34% disapproval (up three). The poll also finds 69% believe the Reserve Bank has overreacted with its interest rate increases, and 71% believe the federal government is largely or partly culpable, though it’s unclear if the question specified the current government. An even 29% believe Labor or the Coalition would do a better job managing interest rates, with 42% opting for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1044.
In other news, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Milton Dick, announced yesterday that the Aston by-election will be held on the inauspicious date of April 1, which is one week after the New South Wales state election (and two after the Arafura by-election in the Northern Territory). Labor has announced that it will again field its candidate from last year’s federal election, Mary Doyle, a finance worker and former organiser for the National Tertiary Education Union, who was the only candidate to nominate. The Age reports the Liberals are taking the preselection out of the hands of their unreliable rank-and-file, which presumably shortens the odds on barrister Roshena Campbell and lengthens them on Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College.
UK via Redfield and Wilton, 18th Feb 2023, changes w/12th Feb 2023:
LAB: 51% (+3) CON: 24% (-3) LDEM: 10% (+1) REFUK: 6% (–) GRN: 5% (–) SNP: 3% (-1) OTHER: 1% (–)
Re-posting from last thread:
While Putin cowers in the Kremlin, Biden shows him clearly that he is facing Western resolve he did not expect:
“ Meticulously planned over several months by a tight circle of key advisers, Biden’s visit was described as “unprecedented in modern times” by his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, on the grounds that it was the first time a US president had visited “the capital of the country at war where the United States military does not control the critical infrastructure”.…
… The active war zone is surveilled by Moscow’s electronic warfare aircraft, with Ukrainian society penetrated by Russian agents.
The risks were apparent from the outset and planned for over “a period of months” by a handful of Biden’s closest aides with input from the NSC, the White House’s military office, the Pentagon, state department, and the intelligence community.
After Moscow was informed of Biden’s trip, a Russian MiG 30 flew from Belarus, triggering an air raid alarm across Ukraine.
If that flight was deliberate, it backfired, with the sirens audible during Biden’s visit serving only to underline his resolve.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/20/how-biden-pulled-off-a-visit-to-an-active-ukrainian-war-zone
Putin is just a flat-track bully, good at looking good when he’s doctored the pitch like he does with Russian elections, who is being found out in this conflict he gratuitously started.
Dutton’s leadership hangs on the by election.
The superannuation debate has gotten out of control very quickly for the government overnight. I think Chalmers was ill-advised making the comment comparing the cost of superannuation to the cost of aged pensions (particularly given that the cost of superannuation is measured in terms of tax expenditures, which are not the easiest thing to explain to the average voter).
There is now a risk that some totally sensible reforms to superannuation arrangements will get buried in a scare campaign which unfortuntately Chalmers and Jones have perhaps inadvertently helped to fuel.
I was very impressed with Chalmers on Insiders a couple of weeks back. But he does seem to be one of those talkative people who “thinks with his mouth open” and thereby sometimes says things that he hasn’t properly thought through.
The sensible thing now would be for Albo to come out today and make some statements to dampen the flames. Hopefully he will.
Looks like we’ve passed the second Albo peak.
Post on the Resolve Strategic Victorian poll:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/02/21/resolve-strategic-labor-41-coalition-30-greens-13/
Voters are a fickle lot. Although I guess they have to take their hip pocket pain out on someone and the PM is as good a person as anyone. Though I would like to see what Peter Dutton’s Approval/Disapproval ratings are also and I don’t know why Essential don’t release them at the same time, it’s only fair and would be a good comparator.
So, it’s obvious that people are starting to hurt financially and I imagine the upcoming Budget is going to have some things in it to help people. What they are, we haven’t even heard whispers about yet.
Kennedy and then Reagan in Berlin. Now Biden in Kyiv. Periodically during the past sixty years, American presidents have stood up at the Eastern edge of Europe and looked to Russia to say, “We stand with our allies. Our resolve is unshakeable.”
Kennedy said, “Ich bin ein Berliner.” Reagan said, “Mr. Gorbachev tear down that wall.” Biden, on his surprise President’s Day visit to Kyiv said, “One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine strands. Democracy stands.”
Trump said he trusted Putin more than America’s own intelligence and law enforcement services. Biden embodied America’s strength. Trump illustrated and represented our greatest weakness.
A year after Trump embarrassed the country in Helsinki, he compounded the offense by withholding aid from Ukraine in an attempt to extort Zelensky into doing political dirty work against Biden to help Trump’s reelection efforts. It was an illegal act that ultimately led to Trump’s first impeachment. At the same time and throughout the following year according to reports from Trump’s own top advisors, he was actively advocating to withdraw American troops from Europe.
There is no doubt that had Trump been re-elected, today we would be witnessing an American president standing alongside his Russian counterpart not Zelensky, marking the weakening of the West, not its enduring strength. Perhaps that prospect, the sense that America was weak and divided and did not care about Ukraine, would not lead the fight to preserve democracy, encouraged Putin to undertake his ill-fated, hugely costly, profoundly ill-considered invasion last February. It seems likely it had an effect leading to that disastrous miscalculation.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/bidens-trip-to-kyiv-is-the-ultimate-humiliation-for-putinand-trump?ref=home
Holdenhillbilly @ #1 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 6:41 am
Looks like Britishers don’t want Boris back. 😉
Lynchpin @ #3 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 6:42 am
The by-election result might be a nail in his coffin, but he should be safe until the end of next year at least.
I admit to not having paid much attention to the superannuation changes, but am genuinely surprised that people are able to access their super to have surgery. I thought SfM’s Covid changes only allowed people to access super under financial hardship or for a home deposit you are living in?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Katherine Murphy summarises the latest Essential poll for us.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/21/guardian-essential-poll-most-think-rba-rate-hikes-an-overreaction-as-shine-comes-off-albanese
Rachel Clun reports that Dutton has slammed Jim Chalmers’ plan to overhaul the superannuation system. Typically, Dutton has described it as “code for more tax”. IMHO Chalmers should say that yes, there will be more tax COLLECTION to flow from unnecessary and over-generous concessions and loopholes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/code-for-more-tax-dutton-slams-treasurer-s-superannuation-overhaul-20230220-p5clzz.html
The AFR’s Chanticleer tells us why super funds will resist Chalmers’ national building call.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-super-funds-will-resist-chalmers-national-building-call-20230220-p5clz7
Jim Chalmers wants to first nail down the objective of superannuation, but inevitably a more ferocious debate awaits the treasurer on the $50 billion of annual tax breaks for superannuation, writes John Kehoe.
https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/one-fact-stands-out-chalmers-targets-tax-breaks-for-super-20230220-p5clxs
Luke Henriques-Gomes reports on yesterday’s harrowing accounts to the royal commission from robodebt victims.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/20/platitudes-and-false-words-mother-of-robodebt-victim-who-took-own-life-tells-inquiry-of-government-stonewalling
Interest rates may contribute to short-term jumps in house prices, but over the long term, factors such as population growth have a much bigger impact, argues Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-demographics-and-not-interest-rates-are-to-blame-for-property-prices-20230220-p5clx9.html
Nick Toscano writes that AMEO has warned that states on the eastern seaboard are at risk of power shortages from 2027 as the closures of coal-fired power plants collide with delays in building new projects.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/east-coast-power-shortages-on-the-cards-without-new-projects-aemo-20230220-p5clwj.html
Josh Gordon tells us that Victoria is ramping up plans to build hundreds of kilometres of new power transmission lines as part of a push to share more electricity with NSW and increase renewable energy.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/green-light-for-keranglink-victoria-s-massive-renewable-energy-grid-upgrade-20230219-p5clos.html
The Big Four banks are hurtling to a record $33bn profit this year fired by $13bn in risk free Pandemic aid. Callum Foote checks out the latest profits for Westpac, NAB, CBA and ANZ – and the TFF effect.
https://michaelwest.com.au/banks-hurtle-to-record-profits-turbocharged-by-reserve-bank-pandemic-help/
The Liberal leader admits he got it wrong when he boycotted the apology – he now runs the risk of being terribly wrong again if he opposes a constitutionally enshrined voice to parliament, writes Troy Bramston who says Dutton and the Liberals are defiantly deaf to the tone of the nation.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/dutton-liberals-defiantly-deaf-to-tone-of-the-nation/news-story/9d582c2350e16f3f755a4d0d12ac084e?amp
The AIMN begins this article with, “So Opposition Leader Peter Dutton believes that “the Voice to Parliament’ referendum will fail. If it does, there is one person to blame – Peter Dutton. Dutton’s potential self-fulfilling prophecy is the latest of a long line of pronouncements by Coalition Leaders that are leading us to a similar situation the USA found itself in on January 6, 2021.”
https://theaimn.com/dutton-and-the-delorean/
Paul Sakkal reports that top Victorian Liberal Party officials will handpick the party’s candidate for the Aston byelection after the party opted against an open preselection process.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/april-fool-s-byelection-no-joke-for-liberals-as-party-scrambles-to-pick-candidate-20230220-p5clyx.html
As the bad press continues on Macquarie Street, the Perrottet government is desperately hoping rich donors can help it out.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/scandal-ridden-nsw-liberals-rattle-the-can-for-donations-20230219-p5clpl.html
Peter Dutton says remote Indigenous communities in Western Australia had been badly hurt by Labor’s decision to abolish the cashless debit card, a welfare quarantine measure designed to limit the purchase of alcohol and other products.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rivers-of-grog-dutton-blames-albanese-ending-cashless-welfare-card-20230220-p5clzl
According to Patrick Durkin, the Morrison government came close to breaking up the corporate regulator under the former chairman James Shipton, after Treasury investigated the idea when it was raised in the final recommendations of the Hayne royal commission.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/asic-was-almost-broken-up-after-the-hayne-royal-commission-20230219-p5clqb
Church and state long ago started to bring women into the fold. The NSW Liberals, not so much, says the SMH editorial which urges the NSW Liberals to seize the opportunity to get more good women onto parliament.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-libs-must-seize-opportunity-to-promote-more-women-20230220-p5clwe.html
Top-performing teachers in NSW will receive pay rises of up to $40,000 under a Coalition plan to keep educators in the classroom, but only about one per cent will be eligible for the super salaries. Six hundred public school teachers will earn salaries of up to $152,000 as part of a NSW election pledge, designed to stop them abandoning classroom positions and to lift student outcomes.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-have-a-retention-crisis-40-000-pay-rises-pledged-for-top-nsw-teachers-20230220-p5clyw.html
Victorian universities have received the highest bill for underpayment claims in the country, accused of owing more than $50 million in wages to workers over the past three years. According to the National Tertiary Education Union’s Wage Theft Report, released on Monday, higher education workers across Australia have been underpaid by $83.4 million over three years, with the University of Melbourne totalling $31.6 million of claims from four separate incidents – the highest figure in the country.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/staggering-victorian-universities-underpaid-workers-by-50m-in-three-years-report-says-20230217-p5clfn.html
Safety concerns have forced regulators to step in five times over the past two years at Santos’ Pilbara operations. The latest issue came just days after a gas leak forced the closure of a platform and curtailed WA’s supply.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/danger-island-santos-fifth-safety-incident-off-wa-coast-revealed-20230220-p5clwx.html
Simon Benson writes that Clare O’Neil has issued a blunt warning to hostile foreign powers seeking to influence democratic processes in Australia that they would be met with swift action in the wake of revelations the Chinese Communist Party had engaged in a sophisticated strategy to undermine Canada’s election in 2021.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/dont-mess-with-our-democracy-home-affairs-minister-clare-oneil-tells-china/news-story/d1cfea70b676c72708b73f8e4012b07f?amp
Former diplomat David Livingstone is concerned that underpinning the Defence Strategic Review is the premise that China represents an existential military threat to Australia. It is not only a given in defence circles, it has the authority of canon law, and to challenge it, even if only in nuance, is to be marginalised.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-s-defence-strategic-review-is-neither-strategic-nor-a-review-it-s-a-recipe-for-deadly-conflict-20230219-p5clqo.html
If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? Here is Part 1 of a series examining what war with China would look like for Australia.
https://johnmenadue.com/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/
Finance expert Joel Gibson tells people that it’s time to get real about climbing their mortgage ‘cliff’.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/it-s-time-to-get-real-about-climbing-your-mortgage-cliff-20230220-p5clx4.html
Kevin Donnelly argues that religious schools must be allowed to keep the right to discriminate.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/religious-schools-must-be-allowed-to-keep-the-right-to-discriminate-20230220-p5clwi.html
Lyndsay Connors writes that public schools are haemorrhaging enrolments to a private system which receives billions from the taxpayer. It’s not fair and it has to stop. She asks, “If the private school sector is ‘too big to fail’, why make it bigger?” She makes several valid points in this contribution.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-the-private-school-sector-is-too-big-to-fail-why-make-it-bigger-20230219-p5clov.html
Opening up access to permanent residence for long stay refugees on temporary visas is right and inevitable. The decision will not set off a major new surge of maritime asylum seekers. The Coalition and their supporters have selective memories. Temporary protection visas were never a deterrent anyway, explains Peter Hughes who declares that there is no basis for temporary protection visa scare mongering.
https://johnmenadue.com/no-basis-for-temporary-protection-visa-scare-mongering/
China’s key housing market appears to have stabilised after 16 consecutive months of decline and heavy intervention by the central government. Whether that’s sufficient to reignite growth at the levels China is more accustomed to is another question, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz who says Australia is desperate for China to wake up from its property nightmare.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-is-desperate-for-china-to-wake-up-from-its-property-nightmare-20230220-p5clsr.html
The Albanese Government’s secrecy over U.S. nuclear weapons being hosted on Australian soil is raising concerns amid escalating tensions with China, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/albanese-governments-secrecy-over-nuclear-weapons-grossly-irresponsible,17252
Joe Biden’s surprise Ukraine visit is a symbol of American resolve, writes Rob Harris.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/joe-biden-s-visit-is-a-symbol-of-american-resolve-on-ukraine-20230221-p5cm39.html
The Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe said Dominion Voting Systems’ brief requesting summary judgment against Fox News for defamation – and $1.6bn – is “likely to succeed and likely to be a landmark” in the history of freedom of speech and freedom of the press. Charles Kaiser explains how the Dominion Voting Systems filing proves Fox News was ‘deliberately lying’.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/feb/20/fox-news-dominion-voting-systems-defamation-case-analysis
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Matt Golding
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1668/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/7e63bba5f22fbaacf0967a97ce44e6bfa5842d2e/jpg
Cathy Wilcox
John Shakespeare
Mark Knight
Leak
”The by-election result might be a nail in his coffin, but he should be safe until the end of next year at least.”
I’d say the end of this year. If the Government is still doing well in the polls next year, the election is likely to be held in October-November next year. The Liberals will need to sort out the leadership well before then if it becomes an issue.
Steve777:
Do you think there’ll be an early election?
Thanks so much BK
“ The Liberal leader admits he got it wrong when he boycotted the apology – he now runs the risk of being terribly wrong again if he opposes a constitutionally enshrined voice to parliament, writes Troy Bramston who says Dutton and the Liberals are defiantly deaf to the tone of the nation.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/dutton-liberals-defiantly-deaf-to-tone-of-the-nation/news-story/9d582c2350e16f3f755a4d0d12ac084e?amp”
——————————————————————————————
“ the Liberals are defiantly deaf to the tone of the nation.” This is not news.
I agree with Meher Baba above that the superannuation message has spun out of control already. I think the younger generations in particular fear it is something that they will never access or will just be raided by Govt eventually through tax. Chalmers needs to shut this down or just come out and say what it is he is exactly doing. If it is a tax on balances on more than say $2 million then announce it and get it done as the vast majority will not care.
But the current position of we want to make it harder for people to access super and we are musing about tax increases/changes is just dumb and will induce panic and coalition scaremongering.
You know Dutton and the lib/nats are in serious decline when Katharine Murphy refusing to publish the essential polling on Dutton approval and disapproval ratings
https://www.smh.com.au/national/religious-schools-must-be-allowed-to-keep-the-right-to-discriminate-20230220-p5clwi.html
Sure. As long as they don’t get taxpayer dollars.
In the Aston by-election like majority of federal/state/territory elections or by-elections
If the Liberal party primary vote is below 40% . most likely that candidate will not win the seat
”Do you think there’ll be an early election?”
I think it likely if polls remain good for the Government. The May timing is awkward for the Budget. October-November is the more usual timing. Failing that, I think that March 2025 is also more likely than May.
Wendy Tuckerman, state PM for Goulburn thinks An(g)us is an asset.
This, use your Super young people for a deposit on a house, is the biggest furphy going around. Do people even realise how much money you need for a deposit on a house and how that compares to how little young people usually have in their Super accounts? The first is, very large. The second, not so much. So, the whole argument from the Coalition is misleading and disingenuous. Situation normal then.
I fully expect Taylormade to blow in like a hot wind in high dudgeon about it today hewing to the Coalition line.
Confessions @ #14 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 7:14 am
The effect of the economic argument from the government on the electorate will decide that.
well the suposid cricess arround butler in health with Dutton claiming the end of albanese popularity fell apart with in days when the uk and japan followed through making Dutton and the msm look stupid what has charmers dun rong morrisons supper changes were only suposed to be tempary any way it is designed foor retirement not to be used when your working is this another msm campaign to find somthing to attack labor over so thee cashlis gaming cardappears not to be the magick stratigy to save the nsw liberals they devided
I don’t think the govt will have an early election, outside of a DD if there is an appropriate trigger. That said, if I had to take a punt on the next election date, I’d tip March 2025 too.
so the smh continuingwith the lynn that ajackqui munro getting the upper house spot will suddinly fix there problims with woman the only reason she even could get the spot is because the suposid champion of female liberals matt keans closist backer peter poulos got dumped for sharing photows to damage a factional rival robyn preston from the hard right faction who is in trouble over hills cowncilplus will labor choose a candadate in fairfield
C@t:
If you’re a first homebuyer in NSW accessing your super coupled with the stamp duty changes the state govt introduced, could give you quite a nice sum to add to whatever you’ve already got saved for a deposit.
Yes, Aaron newton, the Super imbroglio is just another campaign concocted between the Coalition and the propaganda arm of the Tories, News Corp, to sabotage Labor’s economic program. The Coalition had it in for Super before the last election and they haven’t given up trying to destroy it from Opposition. Whilst keeping the best bits for their rich supporters, of course.
Has any body heard of jackqui munro whats her background how can kean seriously claim he did no idea of poulosis actions when he was working for kean at the time of the photows and there is a video saying poulos is his closist mate in the liberal party
plus hasthat great investagative jernalist kate mclimont managed to track down the missing perrottit brothers imagin the media campaign ifsome one close to minns iva fled over seas or went missing and refused to give evidence to the inquiry it would be front page news and all over 2gb
Confessions @ #28 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 7:40 am
Explain how, if you just have an ordinary-paying job, you can pay rent, save for a deposit, pay your cost of living expenses and put enough away in your Super account to add up to an amount for a deposit on a house that doesn’t immediately put you into mortgage stress the way interest rates are going up? I can’t see it. Maybe if they have a well-paying job like you do, but that isn’t the majority.
There are changes that can be made to the tax arrangements of super such as on extremely large balances etc. But saying we are going to make it harder to access super (regardless of the fine print) and musing about undefined tax reform leaves ample room for your nefarious opponents to fill the gap. And it will be filled. Chalmers needs to get in front of it and he can. Stephen Jones should probably do less talking for a bit though.
c@t: “This, use your Super young people for a deposit on a house, is the biggest furphy going around. Do people even realise how much money you need for a deposit on a house and how that compares to how little young people usually have in their Super accounts? The first is, very large. The second, not so much. So, the whole argument from the Coalition is misleading and disingenuous. Situation normal then.”
Well, yes. But then we hear a comment from Chalmers about how the cost of superannuation concessions are going to be unsustainable. If I were a millenial I might interpret that as meaning that I can expect the government to raid the money in my super account somewhere in the next 20 or so years.
Meanwhile, the cost of housing is so high that I can’t see how I’m ever going to be able to afford to buy one. But if I could have that super money now, I might be able to: and then I’ll have something tangible that won’t get taken away from me next time the Government is looking for some extra money to pay to the people who haven’t worked hard and haven’t saved, etc, etc.
If there is going to be legislation enshrining the idea that superannuation is only for spending in your retirement, it seems to me that the same legislation should also enshrine the idea that any money people have already saved in superannuation – up to the $1.7m or what ever cap the government wishes to put on it – is theirs to keep and will never be subsequently raided through taxes.
liberal senator Andrew brag and the ipa have been long term advicates with in the liberal party to undermine and weakin supperanuation the first home buyers supper policy is just another way of the liberals eventuly getting rid of it completely charmers is just triying to return it to its original purpose
C@t:
Well as someone who has been in the market to buy a house for the best part of the last 8 months I can tell you that the number of first homebuyers at open inspections and bidding for property markedly increased after 1 Jan when the govt changes came into effect.
They may not be the majority but there are young people out there paying rent, saving for a deposit and buying property in today’s market.
mb: “up to the $1.7m or what ever cap the government wishes to put on it – is theirs to keep and will never be subsequently raided through taxes.”
The concessions that I’ve seen being investigated are the ones where people that have greater than $1.7M in super still being able to withdraw from super paying only the marginal rate, even while contributing with the tax savings at the marginal rate. Super isn’t supposed to be for rich people to avoid paying tax.
I have not seen anything to suggest that super is going to be ‘raided’. That’s the language of a propagandist.
Morning all. Thanks BK. On the Ukraine war, the story today about criticism between Prigozhin and Putin must be the first time someone on the Russian side has complained about shortages of ammunition costing them battles. Encouraging.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-21/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-ammunition-troops-ukraine/102001480
One final post from me on this.
There’s an intergenerational equity thing going on here too.
Those millenials who have some understanding of the superannuation system (which will no doubt be a minority, but perhaps quite a large one) feel pretty hard done by compared to the baby boomers and Gen Xers who are members of defined benefit schemes: which pay generous pensions which are indexed to inflation, as opposed to the accumulation schemes which have declined significantly in value over the past year or so.
Then there’s the stage 3 tax cuts. It seems to me unconscionable even to think about tampering with superannuation tax concessions for ordinary people while these remain in the pipeline.
The original plan was to do something about the small number of people with tens of millions of dollars in their superannuation accounts. But there appears to have been mission creep: which is only to be expected given that anybody with any understanding of tax policy knows that going after the tall poppies – even in the unlikely event that you can prevent them from shifting their money into another tax-effective arrangement – only produces a relatively small amount of additional revenue. These days, when pretty much only the middle classes pay any tax at all, you have to go hard after them to generate much additional revenue.
And, of course, at the moment the plan is not to go hard after the middle classes, but to give them an unwarranted tax cut. Hence the thought that you might instead go after superannuation. I guess Chalmers is under a lot of pressure from Albo and others to find money they can spend on various desirable new policies. He needs to resist that pressure, or else bit the bullet and do the just and sensible thing and drop the tax cuts.
Making shit up mb.
People are going to need to sell some houses as interest rates rise. That should increase the number of houses to sell, and reduce their prices. There seems to be this weird belief that home owners should only ever get more money than they paid for a house because they are viewed as capital accumulation vehicles, not homes. Until that narrative is broken, interest rates rise. Want to accumulate capital? Put money in super.
If you have more than $2M in super, you don’t need super. The taxpayer shouldn’t be subsidising your extravagant lifestyle. Trying to insinuate that you’re in the same boat as the battlers are the words of propagandists.
Confessions @ #36 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 7:50 am
Without having to raid their Super to do it. Being allowed to do it will only force prices up.
Pi: “The concessions that I’ve seen being investigated are the ones where people that have greater than $1.7M in super still being able to withdraw from super paying only the marginal rate, even while contributing with the tax savings at the marginal rate. Super isn’t supposed to be for rich people to avoid paying tax.”
That’s where the discussion was until a week or so ago. Then it moved into the area of not allowing people to withdraw money from their super funds for any purpose (which is a bit of a red herring). And then Chalmers started making statements about how it would be unsustainable for super concessions to exceed the cost of the age pension, which clearly opens the door for a debate about the concessions received by ordinary people and not just the tall poppies.
And now the debate is out of control. Perhaps it’s a cunning plan: a sort of sneaky lead up to dropping the stage 3 tax cuts. But I fear not.
Well, yes. But then we hear a comment from Chalmers about how the cost of superannuation concessions are going to be unsustainable. If I were a millennial I might interpret that as meaning that I can expect the government to raid the money in my super account somewhere in the next 20 or so years.
And I interpret it that the Labor government are intent on reversing the changes to Super that advantaged the wealthy and gave them undeserved tax breaks and the complainers are using First Home Buyers as human shields to disguise their true intent.
I agree with Meher about the stage 3 tax cuts, as I’ve said here before that they need to be deferred, abolished or tweaked. I actually think the tax cuts will be tweaked by the govt instead of delivered in their current proposed state.
But we shall see.
The politics is toxic. Granted. however, it is a fact that every ‘first home buyer’ scheme and concession only helps cashed up boomers by lifting the market floor and hence making it that more difficult for first home buyers. ‘Super for home deposits’ is the motherlode of bad ideas.
While we are on the subject of toxic politics and bad policy: the tax free concessions in the property market – all of them in combination – are largely responsible for the absurd house prices. Again the ‘reward’ for that is a gift to cashed up boomers and the crumb collectors in Gen X. I’m sure meher will infarct reading this, but there you go. The policies he favours are killing both the national accounts and the hopes and dreams of a younger generation; ‘but we shall weep for the millennials’, am I right, meher.
That’s where the discussion was until a week or so ago. Then it moved into the area of not allowing people to withdraw money from their super funds for any purpose (which is a bit of a red herring). And then Chalmers started making statements about how it would be unsustainable for super concessions to exceed the cost of the age pension, which clearly opens the door for a debate about the concessions received by ordinary people and not just the tall poppies.
And it’s only the disingenuous that are pushing that cynical line. No one, except those who want to use First Home Buyers as their pawns so that they can entrench the benefits for the wealthy, would try and make the argument about ‘ordinary people’ and their Super.
It is simply a provable fact that if you let a flood of young people into the housing market with their Super in their pockets then you WILL see asset price inflation as they use it to bid up property prices.
meher: “That’s where the discussion was until a week or so ago. Then it moved into the area of not allowing people to withdraw money from their super funds for any purpose”
Which has ZERO to do with your assertion about ‘raiding’ your super. Ya just made that shit up.
The problem with enabling young people to raid their super to get more money for a deposit is the same as when there is a generous first home buyers grant. If every person is more cashed up to buy a home equally, they just compete with each other and the price of property goes up.
The only solution is supply. Simply said – but quite complex. But a lot more effective than letting a lot of people access a wad of money – purely inflationary.
Pi: “People are going to need to sell some houses as interest rates rise. That should increase the number of houses to sell, and reduce their prices.”
Prices are falling at about the same pace (or perhaps a little slower) than interest rates are rising, so the effective price of buying a house hasn’t really changed much over the past year or so. Meanwhile, rents are through the roof, making it extremely difficult for most first home buyers to save a deposit.
I completely agree with you that Australians are insanely obsessed with owner-occupied housing as a form of investment. Unfortunately, I don’t see that changing any time soon.
If the Albo Government was crazy brave and wanted to make a change that would help to ensure that age pensions, aged care and the health and superannuation systems were more affordable to the taxpayer, they would introduce measures to compulsorily unlock some of the equity currently tied up in large, high value family homes occupied by only one or two people: the obvious way to do this would be to subject the value of the home above a benchmark (eg, the national median house price) to the Age Pension asset test and also subject it to taxation based on a notional income, but to rebate this tax if the occupant takes out a negative equity mortgage on the property to generate income.
Wildly unpopular, I know. But fair.
Superannuation has another purpose and use- to help provide capital for companies, infrastructure and venture capital, areas where Australia has a critical lack of funds.
The last thing we need is this money going into unproductive real estate, inflating property prices which is a drag on the whole economy.
It also helps workers diversify their asset portfolios- so it is not 100 percent property.
These points rarely seems to be mentioned.
C@t:
Yep. The minute Perrottet announced his stamp duty changes the first thing I said was that it would increase prices. And certainly in the market I’m looking at, that is what happened.