The Herald Sun today has what promises to be weekly results of a campaign tracking poll that will conduct weekly surveys and publish as two-week rolling averages. Branded Lighthouse Political Monitor, the polling is conducted by Growth Intelligence Centre, News Corp’s internal research and data analytics operation. The poll has the Coalition on 31%, Labor on 23%, One Nation on 22% and the Greens on 14%. The poll recorded a minus 21 net favourability rating for Ben Carroll and plus 9 for Jess Wilson. It was conducted October 19 to November 1 from a sample of 1289. A further poll should be along from DemosAU fairly shortly.
There was also a Roy Morgan SMS poll conducted late last week which put the Coalition on 29.5% (up three-and-a-half on three weeks ago), Labor on 22.5% (steady), One Nation on 22% (down three) and the Greens on 12.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is out from 55-45 to 56-44. The poll was conducted October 26 to 29 from a sample of 3610.
Also:
• The report by James Campbell of the Herald Sun accompanying the Lighthouse poll noted that Labor’s digital advertising spend was targeting seats seemingly as safe as Dandenong (margin 18.3%) and Kalkallo (16.5%), and that “the Premier’s seat of Niddrie is also being heavily targeted”.
• The Age reports Barnaby Joyce talking down his party’s prospects at the Victorian election by accusing “those who wish to disparage us” of characterising it as a “litmus test” for the party, a distinction that properly belongs to the New South Wales election in March.
• Anthony Galloway of The Australian reports the Liberal Party is considering pursuing a deal with Labor in which it would revert to its pre-2022 practice of putting the Greens last on its how-to-vote cards, in return for which Labor would direct preferences to Liberal or “at least run an open ticket” (the latter assuredly being more plausible) in Prahran. The report says the Liberals are divided over who to put last, and notes that flyers calling for the party to relegate the Greens are being distributed in the Jewish community stronghold of Caulfield.
• Labor and Liberal remain at loggerheads over whether designated One Nation leader Warren Pickering should be included in the leaders’ debate, which Labor sees as an opportunity to promote concerns about a One Nation-backed Coalition government. The prospective host, the Nine Network, had hitherto been in Labor’s corner, but reached a deal with Wilson over a head-to-head debate next Thursday, which Labor refuses to countenance. A News24 People’s Forum event including Carroll, Wilson, Pickering and Greens leader Ellen Sandell will be held on Tuesday week.
Labor will lose this election for similar reasons to the Democrats sweeping the board in the US midterms – people are pissed off. The smaller things will affect 1-2% of the margin but only makes the difference if it’s close, imo.
My prediction is a convincing Coalition majority.
Of course, a week is a long time yadda-yadda, let alone three and Wilson isn’t off to a great start.
No Favour at 4.34
Than you for your comment.
Yes, I acknowlege I was in error in that a meaningful confidence vote is matter for the House, by which I mean the Governor would take no notice of a Council vote.
OTOH, it’s now clear after 1975 that supply is a matter for both Houses. A Supply Bill stands in the same position as any other Bill.
Of course, the ALP might support a Coalition Supply Bill. ON might be quite happy in this unlikely event, as it would illustrate that there’s a “uni-party” in operation. Etc.
Interesting times ahead, and ON is likely to be a key player.
Difference is Dems might do something to improve it.
The IPA/ON Coalition will make it significantly worse.
@Ghost of Whitlam,
I don’t disagree, though if Schumer and Jeffries continues the same tired old Democrat playbook they’ll be licking their wounds in 2 years.
Get back to me in twelve months time and we’ll see what you’ve got to say.
The media have the “brain dead” in a firm grip.
The reality is that we live in a time of great change, the Liberals/ PHON will atempt to delay the inevitable change.
The Greens have been playing with fire in regard to this Victorian election.
The Victorians will be pleading for a return to “anything” but a Liberal/PHON Coalition before the year is out.
Rafiki – What I intended to say is that I don’t see a reason why a majority government (of any colour) would want to enter a formal agreement with another party in the upper house. A formal agreement would be helpful for a minority government in the lower house for stability, but it would actually limit options for negotiation in the upper house. The current majority Labor government doesn’t have one in the upper house – and I don’t see why a hypothetical Coalition majority government would want one either.
No Favour
With respect, I think you’re right.
My focus was on the role ON could play. On election night, the key issue for analysis may well be
how ON will go in the Council.
It’s a question only lightly touched on here. I guess at this point there’s not much to say.
On an allied point: I can see an argument that the Victorian Consitution should be read as containing an implication that the Council cannot block a Supply Bill. It’s akin to the High Court’s creation of the right to free political communication (subject to exceptions!).
Wilson does not nearly have the same issues that the Dems have.
US debt to GDP = 125%.
Debt = $42 trillion.
Budget = $7-$8 trillion.
Interest bill = $1.3 trillion.
Victoria. Debt to GSP = 25%.
The liberals / conservative news media propaganda is working a lot better this year than in previous years, pot-holes are a lot easier to sell than african gangs, but I somehow doubt this will be the first Victorian state election of my lifetime that elects a conservative government. Even with the intellectual powerhouse of Dave Fucking Hughes behind them.
Go Gollsays:
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 5:25 pm
Victorians are to get what they deserve!
_______________________
We deserve our $15 Billion back but i doubt whether we’ll get it.
Ali Cupper is no longer running in Mildura (former independent MP, 2018-22), so that’ll be a straight Nat vs ON fight. Damn, I was looking forward to an interesting three-way contest.
https://www.river1467.com.au/local-news/cupper-drops-out-of-state-election-race/
Will Victoria be “Jessed” like they were “Jeffed’ from 1992 to 1999. The formula being spouted by IPA Wilson is the same. Sack public servants, reduce debt, cut taxes, sell off the DPP building in Lonsdale Street and lease it back from the Liberal donor who buys it at a fire sale price, sell public land to private property developers. Not even conservative economists are buying this stuff.
But she is not very brave or as sure of herself as her mentor, Jeff F Kennett was. At least he did not run away from Pressers. He always appeared cocksure and arrogant. She just looks scared and certainly not on top of her brief.
The omen of the bus crash on day one; refusing a leaders’ debate because Pickering will be there and not disclosing preferencing deals with One Nation. The whole campaign is about Jess Wilson. She appears in all the advertising and on the confutes with the local candidate and the slogan “Jess and candidate name have a plan for electorate name”.
Journalists are finally getting jack of her refusing to answer reasonable questions and not declaring policy costs. So, if Jess Wilson cracks the whole campaign is gone.
Do not be surprised if the wheels fall off the Jess Express.
The hillbillies that are occupying Victoria, who intend to support a policy free political puppet, surrounded by craggy faced old men from a bygone era, are signing up for development delay and obfuscation .
The liberal/Phon coalition about to grab the reins in Victoria is the best path forward to determine the future of Victoria.
Any other result will leave a smouldering cloud of doubt to prevail.
Good luck hillbillies!
Some have a grid lock preventing the movement of neurotransmitters. The only acceptable political solution is a Liberal/PHON coalition. No data centres to take up residence in Victorian brains!
What is it about Liberals and crashing campaign buses?
The Victorian Liberals’ campaign bus was supposed to be a reset. Instead it became the symbol of a rough week — Benita Kolovos
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/nov/07/the-victorian-liberals-campaign-bus-was-supposed-to-be-a-reset-instead-it-became-the-symbol-of-a-rough-week