Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
The first polls for today’s US midterm elections close at 10am AEDT in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky. The real action will start at 11am when polls close in Senate contests in South Carolina and Florida. A guide to poll closing times is in Tuesday’s article for The Conversation.
In Nate Silver’s final forecast, Democrats have an 82% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 96% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives. They lead on the generic ballot by 9.3 points. However, Donald Trump’s net approval has rebounded to -20.4 from a low below -24.
In Senate contests in five states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, Democrats lead by 3.3 points in Texas, 2.4 points in Alaska, 1.1 points in Iowa, 4.0 points in Kansas and 3.0 points in Ohio. Republicans lead by just 1.1 points in South Carolina and 1.2 points in Nebraska against an independent.
There are two other Senate contests where Democrats had been struggling given Kamala Harris won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024 and Trump only won Michigan by 1.4 points. The Democratic candidates lead by 3.9 points in Republican-held Maine and by 4.9 points in Democratic-held Michigan.
Israeli election: what happens next
At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. All blocs are well short of the 61 needed for a majority. After these results are officially declared today, President Isaac Herzog has until November 11 to nominate someone who can form government: this will be either Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the biggest opposition party (Yashar with 21 seats).
The candidate nominated by Herzog has six weeks to form a government, including a two-week extension. If the first candidate fails, a second attempt can be made with a different candidate. If no government is formed by either candidate in the next three months, there will need to be new elections. Netanyahu remains caretaker PM until a new government is formed.
NZ and Bulgarian elections and Canadian by-elections
The New Zealand election is on Saturday. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation on Monday that a Verian poll last week gave right-wing parties a large enough lead over left-wing parties that they would get a majority of seats without needing Opportunity. However, a Reid Research poll still had left-wing parties ahead, with Opportunity gaining the balance of power. The final Verian poll has the right short of a majority, with Opportunity having the balance of power.
At Sunday’s Bulgarian presidential runoff election, socialist incumbent Iliana Iotova defeated centrist former PM Andrey Gyurov by 57.6—39.5 with 3.0% for none of the above. The Bulgarian presidency is mostly a symbolic office. Turnout was just 28.6%.
Six federal Canadian by-elections have been called for December 7. The centre-left governing Liberals will be defending two seats, the Conservatives two, the left-wing NDP one and the separatist Quebec Bloc one.
Good luck democracy! We’re going to need you.
Oh finally new thread
Lets see if media and polling are right today
Fingers crossed things work out today
My guess
House 236/199 (no science, I just want see the Republicans go sub 200)
Senate 54/46
I’m hoping the Democrats hold everything they have and think they’ll flip
North Carolina
Maine (finally)
Kansas
Ohio
Alaska
Texas
And my smokey, from behind in the polls
South Carolina
I may have missed something obvious given I’m just waking up
Turnout on election day seems to be strong. I’m hoping that means people are voting for change
Good luck with your guesses / predictions All
This feels like a very consequential midterm. A lame duck Trump with no Congress to check him would be extremely bad.
My guess: Democrats to win the House 240 to 195 and to win the Senate 54 to 46. I think they’ll retain all their current Senate seats and flip the following 7:
North Carolina
Ohio
Maine
Texas
Kansas
Iowa
Alaska
Enough of the US media are no longer terrified of upsetting the MAGA crowd and their dangerous political isotope, Trump.
The world deserves a good result.
As always when we Aussies watch elections in other countries, we are always proud of just what a great job the AEC does.
Still calling the Canadian Liberal Party Centre Left.
Their policies are basically those of the Teals. Progressive and economically to the right of Labor.
Hardly Centre Left.
Election day/night cheat sheet. 11pm eastern in the US is 3pm Sydney time.
https://brucemehlman.substack.com/p/six-chart-sunday-november-waves?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
In about 4 hours voting stations would be closed
Currently it’s about 4:16pm
The problem is not today’s result, but the maelstrom which Chump will unleash, and the Dems’ timidity and incompetence. Just look at the Biden years when they ran the economy okay but did nothing to lock in civil rights etc.
On a brighter note Celebrity Traitors is on tonight!
Any reports of ICE right wing militias etc turning up at polling places?
Although I did not predict anything in 2024, my commentary was all pro-Harris.
I don’t want to believe any US polls after that.
Once bitten, twice shy.
So I decided not to predict although I want Democrats to get 250+ in HOR and 56 in Senate.