Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)

A slow decline in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continues, as a date of April 1 is set for the Aston by-election.

The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll, from which I assume we will get voting intention numbers later today. The fact that The Age has a Resolve Strategic state poll from Victoria suggests a federal poll from that outfit should be with us shortly. For now, I can relate that the Essential poll has Anthony Albanese at 53% approval (down two on a month ago) and 34% disapproval (up three). The poll also finds 69% believe the Reserve Bank has overreacted with its interest rate increases, and 71% believe the federal government is largely or partly culpable, though it’s unclear if the question specified the current government. An even 29% believe Labor or the Coalition would do a better job managing interest rates, with 42% opting for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1044.

In other news, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Milton Dick, announced yesterday that the Aston by-election will be held on the inauspicious date of April 1, which is one week after the New South Wales state election (and two after the Arafura by-election in the Northern Territory). Labor has announced that it will again field its candidate from last year’s federal election, Mary Doyle, a finance worker and former organiser for the National Tertiary Education Union, who was the only candidate to nominate. The Age reports the Liberals are taking the preselection out of the hands of their unreliable rank-and-file, which presumably shortens the odds on barrister Roshena Campbell and lengthens them on Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

493 thoughts on “Essential Research poll and Aston by-election latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 6 of 10
1 … 5 6 7 … 10
  1. Oliver Sutton @ #248 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 4:21 pm

    Now at Robodebt RC: someone within AG’s department drafted an email calling for Robodebt to be classified as a ‘Significant Legal Issue’ (based on established criteria) — but it went nowhere.

    Commissioner is perturbed by the absence of any record of why it died.

    They were smart enough not to leave one?

  2. “Basic problem stems from IT being classified as a cost centre and put under the control of finance.

    “The missed opportunity is not using IT to gain a competitive advantage and therefore report direct to the CEO.

    “This playing out right now in the EV space. Compare the performance of Tesla to all the other legacy car makers.

    “Some lessons are never learnt”

    Very, very well put.

  3. Dandy Murray @ #253 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 4:29 pm

    “Basic problem stems from IT being classified as a cost centre and put under the control of finance.

    “The missed opportunity is not using IT to gain a competitive advantage and therefore report direct to the CEO.

    “This playing out right now in the EV space. Compare the performance of Tesla to all the other legacy car makers.

    “Some lessons are never learnt”

    Very, very well put.

    The Munz is a guy you would like a lot. Lots and lots in common. 🙂

  4. Sprocket

    Yep. Alarm bells ring in AG dept in January 2017. inquiries made, DHS asked for draft report , somebody from another branch rings up, and the matter is “parked”
    Conspiracy or cockup?
    Conspiracy to cover up the cockup?
    And Mussolino involved? Again.

  5. BK says:
    “With the RC I’m beginning to think that political concerns seemed to trump legal concerns.”

    Indeed, BK. Compounded by a sociopathic senior executive culture that seems to relish and revel in seeing themselves as ‘masters of the universe’ with power over millions of people and billions of dollars.

  6. There was a watching brief in AG Dept but nobody wrote down who was watching what and what they saw.
    Holmes flabbergasted
    And despite the mounting furore for next years nothing was done.

  7. SAP has been around since about 1965, at the same time Card and Moran’s user interface research at Xerox PARC labs

    User interface stuff really kicked off in the 1980s when Apple wanted a computer that pre-literate people could use, developing the icons

  8. The RC has had its time extended till June 2023 – though the more they dig, the more they appear to be finding. And they provide plenty of content for Bill Shorten’s dixer in QT each day.

    I can see further extensions of the RC being favourably looked at

  9. Albo has done nothing today to put a lid on the stories continuing to run in the media that his government is considering significant changes to superannuation rules beyond the already-floated proposal of putting a cap of $5m or thereabouts on the total amount of funds that can be held at any time in an individual superannuation account and discussions of limiting the possibility of people withdrawing funds before retirement.

    So I reckon the idea of making substantial changes, which would include increasing the tax hike on people who are already retired or, more likely, on people in the contribution phase, is definitely on the table: presumably as a means of funding other budget measures that the government wishes to implement.

    As I suggested earlier, it’s quite possible that the whole exercise is a major feint: make retirees and near-retirees concerned about a tax hit, and then shift the debate towards the idea of dropping the stage 3 tax cuts (or at least their most egregious component). If that’s what this is about, I would acknowledge it a clever strategy. Otherwise, I think it’s going to be an ugly sort of debate, given that both Albo and Chalmers stated quite clearly during the campaign that they wouldn’t do anything significant to super.

    If, as I’m sure a number of bludgers are now going to jump in and claim, the government has no such plans and I’m a Liberal stooge for suggesting the idea, then I reckon it’s a pretty serious communications stuff-up to let the story run for so long without doing anything to stop it.

  10. Thanks to the resident RC watchers/commentators. Very important issues of governance being exposed.
    Extraordinary lack of legal and ethical behaviour on display.
    Lets hope the RC can sort out some suitable criminal charges.

  11. I’m feelin even more confident Lars.

    Scott says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 3:43 pm
    Oliver Sutton says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 3:19 pm
    New from Dr Kev:

    ‘Poll Roundup: No, Labor’s Honeymoon Is Not Over Or Anything Like It’

    ‘2PP Cross-Poll Average 56.1% To Labor’

    ‘Labor would win an election “held now” with an increased majority (approx 92 seats)’

  12. meher baba,
    If you put a 5 million cap on super, that means that super provides a non diminishing 150K income to the owner.

    That’s a lot.

    It would be easy to produce statistic on the number of people with balances over 5 mill. A law change in that place will be simple. Save everyone money in tax, and drive money out of super into other areas for investment.

  13. “If, as I’m sure a number of bludgers are now going to jump in and claim, the government has no such plans and I’m a Liberal stooge for suggesting the idea, then I reckon it’s a pretty serious communications stuff-up to let the story run for so long without doing anything to stop it.”

    What, Labor are not allowed to run ideas up the flagpole?

    If we’re engaging in idle speculation, I reckon they are engaged in shifting the Overton window. Without actually touching it – like a pair of political Jedi.

  14. Holmes mentions peter Martin article again.
    Hope he’s proud of his work
    She fires up.
    What’s it say about the checks and balances?
    I reckon her report is gunna be great reading.

  15. Very pertinent…
    The Albanese government could soon have the evidentiary trigger it needs to dissolve what was the persistently scandal-plagued Department of Human Services and its most recently bogged-up, re-sprayed and re-launched Services Australia.

    The Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme has heard Andrew Podger, the outspoken former head of the Australian Public Service Commission, has been called in to conduct an expert forensic probe into how the administrative elements of the unlawful shakedown gained a roadworthy certificate.

    https://www.themandarin.com.au/212689-podger-unleashed-to-clean-out-robodebt-rot/

  16. Plibersek gives new gas project green light
    The Queensland gas expansion project’s approval threatens to derail Labor’s ongoing negotiations with the Greens to win support for the government’s key climate policy.

    Santos donated $83 000 to the ALP in 2021-2022. You’d have to say they’ve received an excellent return on their investment. https://t.co/J99mlOn9ap— Dr Monique Ryan MP (@Mon4Kooyong) February 21, 2023

    Tanya falls into line with the fossil fuel cartel.

  17. south: “meher baba,
    If you put a 5 million cap on super, that means that super provides a non diminishing 150K income to the owner.
    That’s a lot.
    It would be easy to produce statistic on the number of people with balances over 5 mill. A law change in that place will be simple. Save everyone money in tax, and drive money out of super into other areas for investment.”

    Don’t get me wrong. The cap on super is a great idea: indeed, I’m not quite sure why it can’t be set at $1.7 million, with an opportunity for people- even if they haven’t retired – to immediately move money out of their superannuation account once they reach the cap (or, alternatively, be subject to normal income and capital gains tax on all money above $1.7m).

  18. DM: “If we’re engaging in idle speculation, I reckon they are engaged in shifting the Overton window. Without actually touching it – like a pair of political Jedi.”

    Mebbe.

    I think there’s a strategy behind it all. But is it a good one?

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 4:53 pm

    Santos donated $83 000 to the ALP in 2021-2022. You’d have to say they’ve received an excellent return on their investment

    That statement is just glib crap, hopefully Dr Ryan can rise above her current level of shallowness

  20. Cap of $5m on super is good.

    Should also be a surtax on defined benefit schemes – I’d say anything over $80K per annum a minimum of 35c in the dollar tax on any benefit above that amount.

    Its a matter of fairness.


  21. If you put a 5 million cap on super, that means that super provides a non diminishing 150K income to the owner.

    Actually it provides an annual income of $250,000 for retirees between ages 65 and 75

  22. Rossmcg

    “There was a watching brief in AG Dept but nobody wrote down who was watching what and what they saw.
    Holmes flabbergasted
    And despite the mounting furore for next years nothing was done.”

    While legally convenient in terms of denying personal responsibility for any crimes, this flies in the face of what I was taught was good administrative practice as a Federal public servant in the 2000s.

    Then the Federal PS was full of anal retentive types who wanted everything documented. I was told there were Archive Acts and regulations that required it. The reasons for a decision had to be documented in the event it was legally challenged.

    I hope the RC digs further on this. In not keeping such records I wonder if the public servants might have been acting outside the PS Act?

  23. Sceptic @ #284 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 4:59 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 4:53 pm

    Santos donated $83 000 to the ALP in 2021-2022. You’d have to say they’ve received an excellent return on their investment

    That statement is just glib crap, hopefully Dr Ryan can rise above her current level of shallowness

    She seems to be the Teal most concerned with cheap shots.

  24. What we should do is repeal most of the Howard-Costello changes to superannuation. For example, think that it’s perfectly reasonable to tax the income portion of a superannuation pension, as we did until the early 2000s. After all, contributions that built up the super balance were afforded generous tax concessions during the retiree’s working life. I say that as a self funded retiree.

    But as with climate action, there’s what we should do and what is possible.

  25. Socrates

    Holmes said when she was a public servants 40 years ago every conversation was documented.

    Witness said he had too many conversations a day to document them all.

    Holmes wasn’t buying it.

    I guess that’s why she ended up a Chief Justice and he’s in the witness box.

  26. Never mind Robodebt, Warner is on his way home from India.
    Selectors relieved. Better an out of form player is injured than having to drop him.

  27. south says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 5:03 pm

    I know a woman, young < 45, who's got a 200K a year pension from her dead husband's CSS fund. That shit is a RORT

    __________________________________

    That woman's husband would have had to be at Secretary level. This is an extreme outlier. And the CSS has been closed for well over 20 years to new entrants.

    That's not to say that super concessions are well directed. They should not be for people with so much money they are using a super fund as a tax shelter, rather than to save and maintain an acceptable lifestyle in retirement.


  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 4:53 pm

    Plibersek gives new gas project green light
    The Queensland gas expansion project’s approval threatens to derail Labor’s ongoing negotiations with the Greens to win support for the government’s key climate policy.

    I think it is well known the Greens want no climate change action, but good luck to them driving the point home.

  29. Steve777

    I agree. Even as somebody drawing a tax free sum from my modest super fund.

    My understanding is there were lots of rebates and offsets for retirees, you were not paying tax after earning $18k as workers do now.

    But it was complicated working it out, so Costello said, so he just made it all tax free.

    It’s too generous. we now have people with tens of millions in super funds. One is over 200 million, I have read. It’s not for retirement, it’s for estate planning

  30. Each mortgage repayment comprises part payment of interest and part return of capital. Likewise, with an annuity or super pension payment. With both, interest / income predominate in the early years, with the capital portion growing over time.

    The super fund actuaries can calculate the income and capital portions of super pension payments. These used to be provided by the fund at tax time.

    For a super pension, the income portion is income, like the income earned from term deposits, dividends or working at Bunnings past retirement age because you still have a mortgage, have to pay rent or otherwise can’t afford to retire. The income from the latter three are fully taxed. The income from the first isn’t. Why is that?

  31. Rossmcg

    “Holmes wasn’t buying it. ”

    Glad to hear it. Also, thinking further, there are various acts, and even a PS officer’s position description, that lays out their duties and responsibilities.

    No way a PS lawyer could behave like that and not face sacking and/or disciplinary action.

    Also, as a professional, at what point do all these individuals have a duty of care to protect the safety of individuals in the public? Where is the public interest consideration here?

  32. Lars Von Trier @ #101 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 10:07 am

    4 hours in Alice Springs, 3 days at the Australian open.

    A deliberate, outright lie when you first exuded it, and still an outright, deliberate, putrid lie.

    Your imitation of a Murdoch shit-sheet is accurate, and just about as convincing. When are you auditioning for Sky After Dark? You and Peta would make a lovely pair.

Comments Page 6 of 10
1 … 5 6 7 … 10

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *