The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll, from which I assume we will get voting intention numbers later today. The fact that The Age has a Resolve Strategic state poll from Victoria suggests a federal poll from that outfit should be with us shortly. For now, I can relate that the Essential poll has Anthony Albanese at 53% approval (down two on a month ago) and 34% disapproval (up three). The poll also finds 69% believe the Reserve Bank has overreacted with its interest rate increases, and 71% believe the federal government is largely or partly culpable, though it’s unclear if the question specified the current government. An even 29% believe Labor or the Coalition would do a better job managing interest rates, with 42% opting for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1044.
In other news, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Milton Dick, announced yesterday that the Aston by-election will be held on the inauspicious date of April 1, which is one week after the New South Wales state election (and two after the Arafura by-election in the Northern Territory). Labor has announced that it will again field its candidate from last year’s federal election, Mary Doyle, a finance worker and former organiser for the National Tertiary Education Union, who was the only candidate to nominate. The Age reports the Liberals are taking the preselection out of the hands of their unreliable rank-and-file, which presumably shortens the odds on barrister Roshena Campbell and lengthens them on Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College.
4 hours in Alice Springs, 3 days at the Australian open.
Lars Von Trier @ #101 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 9:37 am
And a partridge in a pear tree?
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 10:05 am
________________________________
More pointless democracy destroying negativity. You obviously prefer Putin as PM.
c@t: “Because allowing young people to put their Super into buying a house will only contribute to too much money sloshing around the housing market. ”
Reread my posts, c@t, I never suggested that it was a good housing policy proposal, simply that I can understand why young people might feel it would be fair if they were to be allowed to do it.
In passing, I might also mention that the growing amounts of funds sloshing around came from the increased availability of discretional and non-discretional (eg, superannuation) investment funds resulting from the unprecedented economic growth of the 2000s and 2010s.
This points to the extreme simplicity of Socrates’s explanation for the massive increases in housing prices post-2000 being all the fault of a simple change to how the CGT discount was calculated. If that change hadn’t been made, where was all that additional money available for investment going to end up? Housing would still have been highly attractive to long-term investors, so the money still would have flowed into the market: the money has to go somewhere, and the amount that can be sensibly invested in the stock market is limited to a considerable extent by the price to earnings ratio.
I think the main effect of the CGT discount change was to attract more short-term investors into the housing market, which had some undesirable consequences, but certainly wasn’t the main driver of the rising prices, which was the buoyant economy combined with unprecedent access to easy money.
Happy Tsagaan Sar everyone!
Today is the first day of the Mongolian New Year.
My mob all going out into the desert to watch the sunrise. Stay safe everyone.
The super into housing, is just tax deduction on mortgage payments, but presumably with rules to preserve the tax advantaged investment until retirement age (with housing you’d expect you could have a deemed rate of return and rollover into a new house or back into a superfund).
There needs to be a market intervention. I would propose in each capital city a major high density neighbourhood, built to 6 or 7 stories around a train or subway that was no more 30 minutes ride from the CBD.
Proper urban planning with nice parks, public schools I would price private schools out of the development. We have too strong an attachment to 4 by 2 s in the suburb so the apartments can’t be too small at first we’d need 3×2 and 2 x 2 apartments.
Cap the prices at way less than market, cap the annual strata at 80% of the shire rates, and make them the only dwellings you could effectively ‘put into super’.
Minimise the involvement of real estate developers, and maximise direct government involvement, even if it takes a few years to setup the public service entity to do it.
You would need a 15 year window where the purchasers could only sell back to the Govt at cost plus a deemed rate of return.
the market then has 15 years to adjust to the reality there is going to be a fairly big correction (if the projects worked and were popular.
WeWantPaul. To add to your idea you might want to put some quality rules around the building. I wouldn’t want to be in a new building in syd at the moment given the significant issues with building quality emerging.
A soldier’s-eye view of the combat conditions facing attackers and defenders alike on the Dontesk front:
“Russian tactics, particularly the use of the Wagner mercenary group in Bakhmut, bolstered by inexperienced convicts, have come under scrutiny.
The heavy losses and months-long war of attrition for control of the city has seen it dubbed graphically as “the meat grinder”.
But “Virus”
says Russia is using similar tactics elsewhere on the eastern front, sending five groups of 10 men in quick succession to attack Ukrainian positions.
Ukrainian troops pick off the initial waves, he said.
But he added: “By the time we get to the fifth, they capture the trench because we don’t have time to reload our weapons, just because we have no time to kill them.”
“They don’t care about their soldiers’ lives.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13261
Absolutely horrendous. I would hate to be either the Russian attacker or the Ukrainian defender confronting this reality.
First home buyers have been seen as an issue for governments since the end of WWII – with the same wringing of hands and ineffective policies which usually put up prices.
Somewhere I have my Commonwealth Savings Bank passbook issued in 1963 which has a faded and peeling sticker on the front cover proclaiming that I am enrolled in the First Home Buyers Grant scheme.
The issue post war has always mainly been due to inadequate supply to demand
Q: 4 hours in Alice Springs, 3 days at the Australian open.
In his 3 years as PM, how many hours did Morrison spend in Alice Springs, and how many hours at Sharks footy matches? I don’t think Albanese was at the tennis for 3 whole days either- more likely dropped in for an hour or two a couple of times.
Superannuation is designed to provide retirement funds, not housing.
It may be very painful, but housing prices need to fall, or at least stop rising. Opening up Superannuation funds will achieve the opposite.
+1 , well said Puff..
Appallingly, Australia is not a signatory to this statement, signed by 34 other countries, including New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, Ireland, Greece, Italy and Japan:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/statement-on-russias-war-on-ukraine-and-international-sport/statement-on-russias-war-on-ukraine-and-international-sport
An excerpt:
“… In its statement of 28 February 2022, the IOC recommended that Russian and Belarusian athletes not compete, in part because “many athletes from Ukraine are prevented from doing so
because of the attack on their country.” Wherever such an exclusion was not possible on short notice for organisational or legal reasons, the IOC recommended that Russian or Belarusian nationals should be accepted only as neutral athletes and that no national symbols, colours, flags or anthems should be displayed.
We noted that the situation on the ground in Ukraine has only worsened since this statement. We firmly believe that, given there has been no change in the situation regarding the Russian aggression in Ukraine, and as an imperative for fairness and solidarity towards the Ukrainian athletes whose facilities have been destroyed and who have had to leave their country (or stay to fight for the defence of Ukraine in which very many have lost their lives), there is no practical reason to move away from the exclusion regime for Russian and Belarusian athletes set by the IOC in their statement of 28 February 2022.
We also noted that through their choices, action and ongoing invasion Russia broke the Olympic Truce that has been continuously supported by the United Nations General Assembly since 1993. …”
==========================
Why on Earth has Australia not signed this declaration? Are we, as a country, actually supporting the presence of Russian and Belarusian athletes in the 2024 Paris Olympics? We had better not be. I expect an answer from Anika Wells at least on this, ASAP. I hope there is an innocent explanation for this oversight.
Socrates
Howard’s changes to the CGT discount had more effect on the stock market than housing.
Stocks tend to churn at a much quicker rate than investment properties which are usually held for extended periods.
I learnt this the hard way having bought in the late 80s and sold in the early 2000s an inflation based discount would have been much preferable to the global 50%. Checking the RBA site the inflation discount would have been 89%
Torchbearer, and has Morrison been near a Sharks game since the electors got rid of him?
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 10:44 am.
Investor demand is out of control. How much better would the balance between buyers and sellers be if investor demand was at pre Howard levels.
Puff
Best advice I’ve had from a financial planner when I first started on that journey was “your superannuation is to help fund your retirement, not make your kids rich”.
I’ve never lost sight of that.
“I think the main effect of the CGT discount change was to attract more short-term investors into the housing market, which had some undesirable consequences…”
Like driving up prices?
“but certainly wasn’t the main driver of the rising prices, which was the buoyant economy combined with unprecedent access to easy money.”
It was the CGT changes, in the presence of low interest rate macro policy settings and the availability of negative gearing, wot did it.
Without any one of these, the effects probably would not have been so dramatic; but together, well, look at the charts.
“Superannuation is designed to provide retirement funds, not housing.
It may be very painful, but housing prices need to fall, or at least stop rising. Opening up Superannuation funds will achieve the opposite.”
Superannuation should be part of a wholistic cradle to grave tax and saving regime that aims to help those who need it most not least. The holistic scheme needs to take into account study / study costs (which obviously needs to be removed but with both parties being very dedicated well right of centre trickle down economics devotees that won’t happen anytime soon).
Definitely the build in the new high density urban transport oriented design would have to be very good, that is a big part of the reason I want to exclude developers they aren’t about anything except profits and should be driven from the market.
Presumably the development at Green Square is informative
https://landcom.com.au/places/green-square-town-centre
“It was the CGT changes, in the presence of low interest rate macro policy settings and the availability of negative gearing, wot did it.
Without any one of these, the effects probably would not have been so dramatic; but together, well, look at the charts.”
For sure I remember one colleague who was very angry Rudd / Swan avoided a recession, he was keen to move even more money into housing but would have like to add a bit of super profit from people’s misery in a recession.
I’ve heard some suggestions that the ‘davos set’ are quite keen on a recession going forward for much the same reasons.
I’m subscribed to a daily email “The Mandarin”, which today has this.
Some time back, there were comments here on the use of “customer” as the label given by Centrelink to the people it was serving. “Customer” describes one half of a commercial relationship, wherein a profit-making business (the other half) obtains income in return for a service, and strategically seeks to capture the “customer” over a long term. (Like Netflix or job service providers, but with a monopoly.) The more “customers” the better.
From the quote, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the attitude had shifted even further, and people were regarded as pots of money to be found (algorithmically) and then extracted (illegally).
“ Leaked briefing notes reveal major coal miner Glencore has been lobbying for legislation changes to prevent legal challenges to a controversial carbon capture and storage project in the Great Artesian Basin. The documents also reveal Glencore is seeking a law change that would force landholders to host infrastructure, including pipes carrying ammonia, on private property.”
“Glencore, via its subsidiary, Carbon Transport and Storage Corporation (CTSCo), is planning to store waste CO2 in an aquifer in the Great Artesian Basin as part of a trial carbon capture and storage project in southern Queensland. Despite claiming water at the site, about 400 kilometres west of Brisbane, was “saline” and “unsuitable” for agriculture, Glencore’s own water samples showed the level of salt in the water was safe for livestock use.”
Good corporate citizens …… not! They need to be taught a lesson.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-21/glencore-leaked-briefing-note-reveals-government-lobbying/101984570
That Tasmanian pitch seems very dodgy
Anyone else seen the touchy feely Glencore ads on prime time TV lately? Doesn’t tell you anything about this stuff. 😐
“Anyone else seen the touchy feely Glencore ads on prime time TV lately? Doesn’t tell you anything about this stuff. ”
Those ads are a vehicle for me to transfer my deep cynicism on to the next generation.
RC
Oh dear.. poor Paul Menzies-McVey breaks into a sweat while trying to obfuscate on 1 year of doing nothing about unlawful scheme
“Glencore, via its subsidiary, Carbon Transport and Storage Corporation (CTSCo)”
There are a lot of companies looking for a free flow of govt funds in this area. Biden kind of poured some money into US companies and all around the world other governments are being bullied to just pour taxpayer money into private pockets.
They have thoroughly wont the climate change wars. It has gone from great ideas to make the polluters pay and / or stop polluting, to taxpayers being required to pour vast quantities of taxpayer money into already hugely profitable mulitnationals. While at the same time we’ve learned that most of the early victims of climate change will be poorer people, so like with covid it isn’t really a problem anymore.
It is really highlighting that corporatisation has taken control and democracy is their plaything.
Dandy Murray @ #120 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 11:00 am
Hmm, and what caused the ‘buoyant economy’? Could it have been the rising house prices and the renovation money pushed into existing housing stock and furnishings for the new? … So as to make the houses worth more and increase the capital gains? And on and on and on it went in an ever-increasing housing bubble.
“Hmm, and what caused the ‘buoyant economy’? Could it have been the rising house prices and the renovation money pushed into existing housing stock and furnishings for the new? … So as to make the houses worth more and increase the capital gains? And on and on and on it went in an ever-increasing housing bubble.”
No, it was a result of the policies implemented after the Hilmer Report and the earlier processes of removing protectionist trade barriers, which drove productivity and wealth creation.
As they say, productivity growth isn’t everything, but it is almost everything.
Sadly it’s my annual review with that financial advisor.
First time I’ll miss a session at the RC.
Hopefully I dont miss a bombshell.
Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #113 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 10:47 am
Well said. Eliding the two, Super and Housing is disingenuous in the extreme.
Dandy Murray @ #132 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 11:46 am
Pushed along vociferously and enthusiastically by the rise of Reality TV Home Renovation shows and a Coalition government. 🙂
Obviously, as with any Report to government, the government of the day decides what and how much of it to support.
‘meher baba says:
Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 9:18 am
c@t: “Noel Pearson says he is “absolutely appalled” by Tony Abbott’s opposition to the Voice.
“He was a very strong advocate for constitutional recognition when he was Prime Minister. As with a lot of things he has changed his view after losing the Prime Ministership.” #abc730″
Is Pearson being disingenous do you think, or is he simply naive?
….’
——————————–
IMO, he got played.
Centrelink wanted Pay Slips, not just bank statements.
Boerwar @ #136 Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 11:55 am
I always believed he was being used by Tony Abbott.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, February 21, 2023 at 11:58 am
Centrelink wanted Pay Slips, not just bank statements.
______________________________________
What seems to be a thread through all the evidence of ministers, staffers and public servants (other than ones at the coal face) is that they had absolutely no idea of how a typical income support recipient lived and the challenges in their lives.
mb: “If Albo doesn’t intervene in the debate today, then my suspicions might be confirmed.”
Another test! Will Albanese rise to the occasion and slay mb’s invented bogeyman?!?!
Someone left the gate open on PB today allowing a display from both the indigenous lyrebird and the introduced peacocks.
Nath will sort it when he returns from other heroic deeds.
Commissioner
“That was just magical thinking, wasn’t it?”
Totally describes the way that the bureaucracy and the ministry approached the whole program.
“Commissioner
“That was just magical thinking, wasn’t it?”
Totally describes the way that the bureaucracy and the ministry approached the whole program.”
Certainly agree, but it was built on a mindset where the recipients, ‘those people’ I think Tudge’s staffer with extra duties called them, are less than human and not deserving of any quality of life, natural justice or indeed as it turned out life at all.
How is it possible to read advice that the underpinning legality of a scheme is illegal & NOT understand that means the scheme is illegal… total bullshit on Paul’s part & every single person involved.. From Scott on down.
Mr Greggery’s eyes have become steely as he homes in on Mr Menzies-McVey after a somewhat perturbed Commissioner’s intervention.
Menzies-McVey is smiling and chuckling and smirking as if this is all a jolly old jape.
Greggery shows a bit of being pissed off. Smirked wiped off face.
Russia’s imprisoned opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has finally come on board with the principles of justice, fairness and the rule of law applying to the relationships between Russia and its neighbours, and not just within Russia itself:
“Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition leader and political prisoner, has published the agenda of his political platform, which include respect for Ukraine’s internationally recognised 1991 borders and compensation for damage caused by the Russian war of aggression.
“What are Ukraine’s borders? The same as Russia’s – internationally recognised, and defined in 1991. We, Russia, also recognized them back then. Russia must recognise these borders now. There is nothing to discuss here. Nearly all the borders in the world are accidental and cause someone’s discontent. But we cannot fight to change them in the twenty-first century. Otherwise, the world will plunge into chaos.”
Navalny proposes “to leave Ukraine alone and allow it to develop as its people wish to,” which means “to stop the aggression, end the war and withdraw all Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/20/7390125/
To clarify, he is not suggesting borders cannot be changed at all to solve discontent, but that it is unacceptable for anyone to try to change them by forcible invasion, such as Russia’s in Crimea in 2014. I wholeheartedly agree. It is a terrible tragedy for both Ukraine and Russia alike that Putin, his Kremlin and his apologists both at home and abroad don’t.
The LNP are pushing the: “It’s your Money” line to disguise their latest attack upon Superannuation.
If people wish to work until they drop dead in their 70s, 80s – then by all means let them withdraw their Superannuation contributions.
The first pay advice, after having done so, may give a rude shock when they discover that the generous, for everyone, contributions tax has ceased and that they are effectively paying more tax. A further rude shock may arise, towards the end of their working life, when they discover that the Aged Pension, if still available, doesn’t cover their retirement requirements.
It is a bit disingenuous to suggest that owning a dwelling is an end of work form of Superannuation. Yes, a dwelling can be sold for whatever the current market rate is, but where do you live and how do you fund your retirement needs?
This neo-liberal anti Super campaign needs to be squashed, pronto!
Anybody feeling perky for Sunday nights newspoll?
“China providing Russia with weapons for its war against Ukraine will be a red line for the European Union.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/20/7390218/
It certainly will be. And not just for the EU, but for the US as well. I suspect that China, though, will heed this clear warning and not go down that catastrophic path. If they don’t, we had all better prepare for a much more hostile posture between us (ie, Australia) and China.
How can a former Chief Counsel of the DSS be so bloody vague & not keep any records about anything?
He should return his salary to the Tax payers