Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)

Liberal contenders jockey to succeed the late Jim Molan in the Senate and contest the forthcoming by-election for the Melbourne seat of Aston.

We’re not likely to see anything on the polling front this week, but there is other electoral news to relate following recent parliamentary vacancies and party defections:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports preselection nominees to fill the late Jim Molan’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy are likely to include Andrew Constance, former state minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore, and Fiona Scott, who held the lower house seat of Lindsay from 2013 to 2016, together with reported front-runner Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. Constance and Scott are associated with the moderation faction, while McInerney is a conservative. Mary-Lou Jarvis, lawyer and Woollahra councillor, has also written to senior party figures staking her claim as a qualified woman and the third candidate on the ticket at last year’s election, while also criticising the party’s apparent intention to leave the position vacant until after the state election on March 25.

The Australian reports the Liberal hierarchy’s hopes of fielding a female candidate for the Aston by-election stand to be complicated by the entry into the field of Emanuele Cicchiello, who is rated a strong chance by sources close to eastern suburbs conservative powerbroker and Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, other unidentified sources, “including some with strong Right faction allegiances”, rubbished the notion. Cicchiello is deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College, a former mayor of Knox and contestant for the seat of Bruce in 2013 and numerous preselections since. All other noted contenders have been women with the exception of Andrew Asten, a former staffer to Alan Tudge, who has since ruled himself out. Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the matter could be determined by a plebisicite of local members, which have lately proved resistant to female candidates, if the by-election is set for a date that allows sufficient time.

• Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation from the Greens last week marked the first change to party representation in parliament since the election, with the Senate numbers now at Coalition 32, Labor 26, Greens 11, One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network two, United Australia Party one and two independents, namely Thorpe and David Pocock. This leaves the government needing two extra votes when the Greens are on board and the Coalition are not, where formerly it needed only one. Thorpe was elected to a six-year term at the election last May, which will extend to the middle of 2028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,987 comments on “Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)”

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  1. @snappy Tom:

    “ Labor was so devastated by 1996, it stopped talking about the transformative achievements of Hawke-Keating. There was a similar silence on positive achievements after 2013. I think it’s really important that Albo has spoken so positively about both those Labor govts.”

    _______

    This still breaks my heart today. We gifted the filth the meme that they are ‘better economic managers’. We ignore fighting for our legacy with the liberal stenographers in the MSM.

  2. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are accelerating their sadly necessary work in causing attrition to Russia’s invading and occupying forces:

    “Russia lost more troops last week than at any point of its full-scale invasion, according to Ukrainian military figures.

    A record 6,180 troops were reportedly killed in the week Feb. 5-Feb. 12. The previous highest total was 5,800 recorded back in April last year. Other disastrous weeks for Russia occurred in June (5,050) and July (5,280).”

    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/12127


  3. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:53 am
    Ven, you are right – Aramex could appeal the ruling to a higher court.

    However, we have the rule of law in this country. If a court rules that their jurisdiction applies to you, it doesn’t matter what you think. You comply, or suffer the penalties.

    Sprocket
    Let us see how Aramex reacts. These gulf companies are used to treating their employees/ contractors however they in Gulf.
    For example, look at how they treat workers from sub-continent. They are treated very badly.

  4. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:53 am

    Sceptic @ #64 Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 – 8:25 am

    Australia finally finds a purpose for spending all that money…

    Australia’s F-35s are capable of shooting down any spy balloons over country, thinktank says.

    Did they venture from whence such balloons might originate? There isn’t much due west of Oz.
    ____________

    Hutt River making a comeback?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principality_of_Hutt_River


  5. Cronussays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:55 am
    Thanks BK

    A couple of challenging days ahead for the RBA governor and even the bank itself and its use and timeliness of data. I sense a movement in the force.

    Cronus
    “challenging days” reminds me of what Patricia Karvales said on ABC TV. Last week was challenging for ALP government and it will be challenging this week and with an emphasising that this is only second week of parliament this year . ( Bit off topic but there you go)

  6. a r:

    Overblown. What intel are drones and balloons going to provide that a spy satellite wouldn’t?

    The answer to that was in the article: they can prompt air defence radars and similar systems to light them up, allowing data to be gathered on the adversary’s electronic order of battle – ELINT.


  7. shellbellsays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 10:02 am
    Wonder how many interested franchise owners get advice from accountants to buy the franchise.

    Shellbell
    Is there a client-accountant confidentiality law that exists in Australia? 🙂

  8. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 10:42 am

    “ Nuclear submarines can be just as quiet as the Collins class, Vice Admiral Mead says.

    Meaning: Nuclear subs are not as quiet as the Collins Class.”

    ______

    I’m pretty confident – based on public information – that the current generation of nuclear subs (so Virginia class, the Astute and Suffrens) are as quiet as Collins in most tactical situations. The real issue though is heat generation, especially when deployed on very slow stealthy patrols in the littoral waters that will remain our ‘wheelhouse’ for A2-AD operations in the ‘Defence of Australia’ (ie. in that large arc from the Straits of Malacca through to the Solomons Sea). AUKUS subs are at a distinct disadvantage when compared to modern SSKs and also LEU reactor powered SSNs like the Suffren.
    ____________

    Do Highly-Enriched Uranium reactors run “hotter” than Low-Enriched Uranium reactors?

  9. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 10:24 am
    BK

    Puppy is too cute!
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I 2nd that.
    Did you have any change left out of $5k BK?

  10. Ven says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 10:54 am


    Cronussays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:55 am
    Thanks BK

    A couple of challenging days ahead for the RBA governor and even the bank itself and its use and timeliness of data. I sense a movement in the force.

    Cronus
    “challenging days” reminds me of what Patricia Karvales said on ABC TV. Last week was challenging for ALP government and it will be challenging this week and with an emphasising that this is only second week of parliament this year . ( Bit off topic but there you go)
    ____________

    Media Pro-Coalition Narrative Theme #27: Everything’s “challenging” for Labor as they’re not a legitimate govt.


  11. Cronussays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 10:13 am
    Ven says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:46 am

    Peter Dutton may be sorry for not saying sorry, but he’s still in no man’s land on the voice, declares Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/13/peter-dutton-may-be-sorry-for-not-saying-sorry-but-hes-still-in-no-mans-land-on-the-voice

    Did anyone notice that

    Peter Dutton may be sorry for not saying sorry, but he still did not say sorry to Stolen generations.
    ——————————————-

    And he can’t bring himself to support The Voice because, well, he’s not really sorry.

    Patricia Karvales said on ABC TV that Dutton said sorry to Stolen generation people in the Parliament gallery. If that is case, I stand corrected.

  12. Interesting stats on Credit Cards..

    https://www.finder.com.au/credit-cards/credit-card-statistics

    “Unfortunately, some have missed the due date and faced a late fee…
    Have you ever paid a late fee on your credit card?
    • Yes – 64%
    • No – 25%
    • I don’t know – 11%”

    This one is a racket…. Banks were slow to allow auto payment on CC …. Westpac still require you download a pdf & lodge it.. the Federal Court case got it wrong when it said banks weren’t in breach by imposing a fine for late payment when fine bore no relation to actual cost of being late…

    I think some banks alter their “due by” dates to make it difficult … leave it to the Bank Backroom guys to work out how to fleece their customers

  13. Andrew_Earlwood:

    A-10s, F-16s, F-15s, F-15s, F-18s could have all done the job. As could the even older planes they replaced a generation ago, and the generation before that.

    The first balloon shot down was at 58,000 ft. The service ceiling of the A-10 is 45,000 ft.

  14. Banks reason for high CC rates..
    Banks excuse will be cost of doing business.. theft & fraud.. oh & clients going broke because they can’t afford the interest rates!

  15. I am fairly sure that the Green’s proposed federal rent freeze would be found to be unconstitutional. Residential rental agreements fall clearly in the jurisdiction of the the states.


  16. Snappy Tomsays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 10:39 am
    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:40 am

    Ven @ #45 Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 – 8:37 am


    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:30 am
    Why are the Liberal Party even considering a Conservative Christian Male!?! Have they not learned a single thing from the election last year!?!

    Look at Dutton. Enough said.

    But if they were smart they would be taking these opportunities to rebuild constructively. Like Labor did.
    ____________

    Deciding to “rebuild” would involve the Liberals acknowledging they have problems.

    Right wing parties aren’t good at that. It doesn’t fit the world-view.

    Some years ago I heard a political saying from the US: “When Democrats lost, they get sad. When Republicans lose, they get mad.”

    A brilliant saying, with many layers of meaning…
    The Right “get’s mad” at losing because they are born to rule; if they lose, it somehow wasn’t legitimate (e.g. Trump’s lie, Lib/Nat attitude to Whitlam and Rudd/Gillard govts); any loss is blamed on one person (e.g. Morrison) or voter delusion (“they just wanted to change the curtains”).

    If the Liberals start seriously self-evaluating (including considering quotas for gender balance in representation) – some of the juicier bits of the self-evaluation will leak. It will create an image of a party that no longer automatically assumes it should run the place. It would also include awkward questions about the increasing extremism of the “Liberal” membership base.

    I remember seeing a brief doorstop by Gareth Evans after Labor was crushed in the 1996 election. He looked stricken. The journo asked him a question about how the party would fare if Beazley lost his seat (where counting was on a knife edge). If it was possible, Evans looked more stricken and spoke about Beazley being “crucial” to Labor going forward.

    Labor was so devastated by 1996, it stopped talking about the transformative achievements of Hawke-Keating. There was a similar silence on positive achievements after 2013. I think it’s really important that Albo has spoken so positively about both those Labor govts.

    The Liberals’ “getting mad” after defeat probably helps them “look like” a bona fide party of govt that just needs to re-group a little. Labor’s “getting sad” after defeat may yield positive self-reflection but also can question whether the party is “proper govt material”.

    I think a default “getting mad” after defeat is arrogant and delusional. I hope the electorate might be finally seeing the Liberals for what they are.

    Brilliant assessment!
    That is the reason why so-called MSM and Bureaucracy behave like they behave i.e always protect LNP and criticise actions of ALP.
    LNP has crapped on Australian people for last 9 years and MSM and Bureaucrats behave as if that is what is suppose to happen.

    Hence ALP should not take anything for granted and smash LNP wherever possible because LNP will do that if they are in power.
    If ALP had lost 2022 election, Australia would have become like Israel where they would not be any centre-left party.

  17. In case anyone needs a reminder of why it would be morally outrageous to require Ukrainians to live under Moscow’s rule in any ‘territory for peace’ swap:

    “The Prosecutor General’s Office is currently investigating more than 69,000 cases of war crimes and crimes of aggression allegedly committed by Russians since the beginning of the all-out war almost a year ago.

    Russian forces have been consistently attacking residential buildings and vital public infrastructure in Ukraine. Evidence collected in the Ukrainian territories liberated from Russian occupation points to systematic violations, including murders of civilians, rape, torture, looting, and illegal displacement of Ukrainians to Russia.

    According to the United Nations, 7,155 civilians have been confirmed killed and 11,662 injured in Ukraine since Feb. 24. However, the actual number of casualties is expected to be significantly higher, since data from occupied territories and areas with heavy hostilities is currently unavailable. …

    … The number of 69,000 investigations “is not final,” Pechonchyk said. “This is a task of unprecedented scale that will take more than one generation to document and investigate.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/national/civilian-investigators-join-the-fight-of-bringing-russian-war-criminals-to-justice

    This article also contains some details of specific war crimes, which I will not post here.

    🙁 😡

  18. PayWave set up….

    Background on debit cards and payment costs
    When a merchant (e.g. a shop or business) accepts payment from a customer via a debit or credit card, the merchant is charged a fee by their bank or payments provider. Higher payments costs for merchants feed through into higher prices for goods and services, so merchants are typically keen to hold down their payments costs, just as they try to reduce other costs of doing business.
    Debit cards are cards issued by banks, credit unions or building societies that allow individuals to make purchases or cash withdrawals from their deposit account. In Australia, debit card transactions can be processed through one of three debit card scheme networks: eftpos, Debit Mastercard or Visa Debit. Usually, the transaction draws on the same deposit account, regardless of the scheme that processes it. But the cost the merchant faces from their financial institution for accepting a debit card transaction can vary depending on which of the three networks processes the transaction. For many merchants, payments via the eftpos network can be significantly less expensive than payments via the international Debit Mastercard or Visa Debit networks.

    So make sure you select eftpos in your setup… just watch that some parking meters etc don’t accept eftpos

  19. @caf:

    “The first balloon shot down was at 58,000 ft. The service ceiling of the A-10 is 45,000 ft.”

    ______

    So what. The balloons were shot down using AIM-9X sidewinders. Which the A10 carries for self defence. Whilst not an ideal platform for this sort of work, the A-10 could probably still complete the mission provided it’s missile obtain a lock via the semi active radar or infrared homing sensors in the missile itself (or are ‘quarterbacked’ by the plane’s radar or surface radar systems.

  20. In regards the pile on re mortgage servicing:-

    How many Australians are mortgage free?

    Of those borrowed, what are the bands of that borrowing (starting from $0- to $100,000- etc etc

    How many households have $100,000- in a Savings Account, now receiving $3,000- per annum in interest from ziltch previously?

    What is the impact of increasing interest rates and increasing rents on Negative Gearing lending, so private rental properties?

    What is the home loan mortgage arrears across our banks?

    When these questions are answered I will take notice of the daily headlines fed to us by media and their puppets

    Bit the same with a contributor on here re one of the border conflicts – and no wonder the Guardian censor

    I note the DJIA performance this morning, ahead of inflation figures in the USA tonight (and the consequent trajectory for interest rate settings by the Fed Reserve, so optimism ahead of data)

    And just to finish, in regard interest rate stress, Savings & Loans then sub prime lending and the GFC anyone?

    So were lessons learned by our lenders?

    Or was grow the book the mantra?

  21. A grim insight into life under Putin’s Kremlin in contemporary Russia:

    “Major General Vladimir Makarov, former Deputy Head of the Russian Interior Ministry’s department for combating “extremism”, has committed suicide near the city of Moscow.

    Source: Kremlin-aligned news outlet TASS citing sources; Moskovskij Komsomolets citing sources; Meduza, Latvia-based Russian media outlet

    Details: The Russian agencies’ sources state that the body was found on the morning of 13 February in his country house in the village of Golikovo (Moscow Oblast). The preliminary data indicates that he committed suicide.

    Moskovskij Komsomolets newspaper notes that there were firearms kept in the house.

    Makarov was dismissed from his position at the Interior Ministry’s Department for Combating Extremism (also known as Centre E) in January of this year.

    Meduza reports that Center E is a repressive body whose employees persecute protesters and, in particular, monitor social media posts criticising the government.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/13/7389176/

    First, what a chilling job to have – weeding out dissidents against the Putin regime. Talk about dirty work. Secondly, this is officially put down to suicide and that line of work would certainly be a risk for that. However, was it really suicide, or an elimination from above (or below) in the pecking order?

    Whatever this actually was, this paints a picture of a regime nobody of an innocent frame of mind would want to live under. No wonder Ukrainians would rather fight to the end than live under Putin’s Russia.

  22. Snappy Tom / Andrew Earlwood

    “Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 10:42 am

    “ Nuclear submarines can be just as quiet as the Collins class, Vice Admiral Mead says.

    Meaning: Nuclear subs are not as quiet as the Collins Class.”

    ______

    I’m pretty confident – based on public information – that the current generation of nuclear subs (so Virginia class, the Astute and Suffrens) are as quiet as Collins in most tactical situations. The real issue though is heat generation, especially when deployed on very slow stealthy patrols in the littoral waters that will remain our ‘wheelhouse’ for A2-AD operations in the ‘Defence of Australia’ (ie. in that large arc from the Straits of Malacca through to the Solomons Sea). AUKUS subs are at a distinct disadvantage when compared to modern SSKs and also LEU reactor powered SSNs like the Suffren.
    ____________

    Do Highly-Enriched Uranium reactors run “hotter” than Low-Enriched Uranium reactors?”

    I don’t think all the above is correct. Noise for submarines is really complicated:
    1. All subs get noisier as they age, due to worn machinery etc.
    2. All subs get noisier as they move faster, especially diesels. Nuclear subs less so.
    3. Sub design is getting quieter over time, so a modern SSN may be quieter than an old SSK.

    This means that at low speed (20 knots to 35 knots) are only possible for a nuclear sub.

    HEU reactors do not run “hotter” than LEU. The core material is more radioactive than LEU, but the core is designed differently with more control rods.

    The main issue for any sub reactor is cooling it, which is done by distilling water from the ocean and pumping it past the reactor. The amount of cooling water depends on the ambient temperature of the seawater and the amount of pumping. A reactor will be designed to operate in a range of ambient sea temperatures. If it gets outside this range it will have to dial down the amount of energy from the reactor, so may have less power.

  23. Peter Bol has announced his secondary B sample has proven his innocence after he tested positive for a performance enhancing drug in January.

    Bol’s provisional suspension has now been lifted, meaning he is free to compete once again.

  24. Andrew_Earlwood:

    So what. The balloons were shot down using AIM-9X sidewinders. Which the A10 carries for self defence. Whilst not an ideal platform for this sort of work, the A-10 could probably still complete the mission provided it’s missile obtain a lock via the semi active radar or infrared homing sensors in the missile itself (or are ‘quarterbacked’ by the plane’s radar or surface radar systems.

    So it means the guns are out of the question and getting an AIM-9x lock seems impractical. If you reckon it could, fine, but I still think it’s clear that the A-10 isn’t really the right tool for the job. (As far as I’m aware they don’t actually have air-to-air combat radars?).

  25. That Balloon
    …according to multiple sources, while the balloon transited U.S. airspace. To wit: it was not a weather balloon that drifted off course, but had propellers and steering mechanisms. In other words, it had the means to be directed where it needed to go.

    https://puck.news/balloon-mind-state/

    “It is very difficult to separate what is an economic activity and what is a military activity” for the Chinese government, added the former official. “We tend to bucket things, but everything is kind of dual-purpose for them.”

    So the obvious question is given that blind Freddy would understand there is no distinction between companies & the State in China or Russia why did the US Capitalist system do business with them… Answer.. follow the money .

  26. Further to parties “rebuilding” after defeat…

    2019 was traumatic for Labor. Albo, installed as leader went on a “listening tour” – but he never had the Gareth Evans “1996 stricken” look about him.

    Somewhere in between getting either “sad” or “mad” is a way of learning lessons without fueling a media narrative of “not ready to govern”. (Labor can expect the biased media to run that narrative, the party just has to respond in a way that seems reasonable to middle-of-the-road voters.)

    When Covid arrived, things looked terrible for Albo. Scomo became Father of the Nation etc – until he wasn’t.

    What Albo/Labor did in the early part of Covid was to support 90% of Scomo’s stuff – and occasionally call for measures to be taken earlier or go further.

    It might’ve appeared Albo/Labor had rolled over or “run up the white flag”.

    In fact, by not going hysterical, the party was laying the foundation of credibility for govt.

    The 2022 win might make this look like convenient hindsight, by my recollection of polls 2-3 years ago was that Labor was always at least “just in touch” – even when Scomo looked like he was doing well. Albo/Labor’s choice to support 90% of govt decisions was actually the only viable option.

    Look what happened in WA, Qld and Vic, where the Opposition went birko; and a “moderate” Liberal Premier lost in SA.

    Centre-left politics needs to be about evidence-based policy and strategy. Leave ideological nuttery to the Liberals.

  27. Q: Bol’s provisional suspension has now been lifted, meaning he is free to compete once again.

    What a sad time it has been for Bol. I saw his coach saying he has basically stopped training, and his preparation for the Olympics next year is shot. He missed out on all the AOTY events (as Young WA AOTY) because of the positive test.

  28. This report illustrates a consequence of over-reliance on one arms category – in this case, artillery – to do all the heavy lifting in sustaining Ukraine’s defensive and counteroffensive efforts against Russia’s invasion and occupation of their territory:

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday that the transatlantic military alliance would be increasing its targets for ammunition stockpiles, amid rapid depletion of its inventory in the war in Ukraine.

    “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of ammunition,” Stoltenberg said. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current production rates. This puts our defense industries under strain. (…) So we need to ramp up new production and invest in our production capacities.”

    Stoltenberg also said NATO members would “step up and sustain” support for Ukraine, saying: “NATO stands with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

    https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-nato-warns-of-donor-ammunition-shortages/a-64684823

    NATO doctrine emphasises use of combined arms to achieve offensive (including counteroffensive) objectives, and so Western arms manufacture has been geared over the past three decades to a level of ammunition likely to be consumed by artillery units which are operating with full air and armoured support. However, NATO has, so far, limited its military support to Ukraine to artillery units and ammo, air defence, infantry kit and APC’s, with heavy armour only recently announced and still yet to actually arrive on the front. Air units have still not even been announced.

    Until heavy armour and air units arrive in Ukraine in sufficient numbers to enable proper combined arms operations, Ukrainian use of ammo at extremely high rates will continue to be necessary, if Ukraine is to keep fending off Russian massed-infantry assaults. I hope NATO has made clear-headed decisions about the mix of weapons contributions for Ukraine which its industries can best supply over the long term this war may well last.

  29. Snappy Tom

    It’s not easy to stay calm after a big election loss.
    In WA in 2013 the liberals won 31 seats, enough to govern without the Nats.
    McGowan was a figure of fun, sneered at by the media.
    But did Labor panic?
    Got on with the hard work.
    It wasn’t only because of the Barnett government’s general incompetence that Labor smashed it in 2017 and again in 2021.
    The liberals are still figuring out what went wrong, fighting internally over the few crumbs remaining.

  30. Dutton, Bandt and Pocock are delaying housing construction programs on Indigenous communities.

    Dutton is delaying it cos No’alition.
    Bandt is delaying it cos non-Indigenous rents.
    Pocock is delaying construction because there will not be enough construction.

  31. And in regards the daily headlines re “mortgage stress”

    The eldest of our 4 children across our blended family is now approaching 40 (how did that happen?)

    When purchasing their homes, they borrowed to 80% of the purchase price (80% LVR being the maximum borrowing).

    Despite not requiring all of the amount borrowed to settle the transaction.

    The borrowings were between $425,000- and $550,000- respectively.

    I have asked them re any “mortgage stress”.

    “Nah, we did what you said and have been servicing the principal plus interest borrowing as if the interest rate was 6%, so we now have a very handy buffer”

    A hug and a thumbs up.

    My wife and I?

    We have been mortgage free since we married, so for over 25 years.

    The difference being debt free makes to your life style is dramatic.

    We have told our children that also.

    No doubt they will tell their children.

    The media do not publish stories such as this – just not a headline which sells their rubbish

  32. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 12:49 pm
    Dutton, Bandt and Pocock are delaying housing construction programs on Indigenous communities.

    Just how many construction programs have there been … & how effective were they?

  33. Re franchises above, I worked for a second tier national law firm and we had a pretty strong relationship with a couple of accounting practices so clients could get pretty seamless accounting, tax, and franchise expertise between us and their accountants. It seemed to work pretty well, but I suspect there is a level of franchisee that doesn’t / couldn’t afford to engage lawyers or capable accountants and just dive in.

    Now I was not ever involved in the franchise law stuff, but the gun sat two offices down and based on her comments my crude non-legal non accountant layman’s conclusion, with which she didn’t agree, it was almost all of her work on a day to day basis, anyways my personal view as a potential punter was ‘just don’t do it ever’.

    Sure there are a whole lot of small businesses that operate in a franchise structure where you could, if you have the full range of skills, and HR and marketing would come up very high on my ‘must have’ skills list, do the same business but without the franchisor, and even suppliers to the franchisor pillaging most of your success.

  34. Oh big caveat, if you’ve got the money and the skills definitely try to be on the franchisor side of the franchise stuff, just don’t be the franchisee.

  35. @caf:

    “So it means the guns are out of the question and getting an AIM-9x lock seems impractical. If you reckon it could, fine, but I still think it’s clear that the A-10 isn’t really the right tool for the job. (As far as I’m aware they don’t actually have air-to-air combat radars?).”

    _______

    1. You are only focused on one ballon take down, not all four. Other interceptions took place at lower altitudes.

    2. Even on that mission, the balloon was huge and bright. Hence providing a very large radar and infrared signature such that the AIM-9Xs sensors would have likely acquired a lock if the plane carrying them was 3 miles below and 5 miles back. Hence it is unlikely that any ‘assist’ from external sensors would have been required.

    I’m not really sure what your ‘point’ is. These balloons are neither stealthy or fast. If they represented the primary threat to the US then a fleet of even retrofitted Piper Cherokees equipped with sidewinders and a basic air-to-air radar would be enough firepower to keep the homeland safe (although that is an obvious piss-take, a repurposed fleet of MQ-9 drones, equipped with appropriate multi spectrum air to air targeting sensors, would probably be an ideal platform for anti balloon warfare).

  36. ‘Sceptic says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 12:53 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 12:49 pm
    Dutton, Bandt and Pocock are delaying housing construction programs on Indigenous communities.

    Just how many construction programs have there been … & how effective were they?’
    ———————————————————–
    Too big a topic for Bludger, IMO.

    Just one tiny example: there is a Ph D in the way the states and territories have over the decades siphoned Fed housing money away from Indigenous housing.

    I know that everyone negs spending on Indigenous needs but:

    I know of one community that now has around a thousand residents that had precisely zero houses half a century ago. Just six tin sheds with dirt floors, no doors, no running water, no power and no sewage system. It is now fully housed and fully serviced. Some of the houses are often over-crowded. Some of the houses poorly maintained.

    Around 40% of Indigenous households live in owner-occupier houses.

  37. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 12:16 pm

    Peter Bol has announced his secondary B sample has proven his innocence after he tested positive for a performance enhancing drug in January.

    Bol’s provisional suspension has now been lifted, meaning he is free to compete once again.

    A couple of things stand out here.

    1. The leaking of the A sample result is appalling.

    2. The time taken to analyse the B sample is equally so.

    Sport Integrity Australia need to work harder to live up to their name.

  38. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 12:16 pm

    Peter Bol has announced his secondary B sample has proven his innocence after he tested positive for a performance enhancing drug in January.

    Bol’s provisional suspension has now been lifted, meaning he is free to compete once again.

    A couple of things stand out here.

    1. The leaking of the A sample result is appalling.

    2. The time taken to analyse the B sample is equally so.

    Sport Integrity Australia need to work harder to live up to their name.

  39. Sceptic

    There is another PhD on the hidden consequences of MABO vis-a-vis the very vexed question of home ownership on Indigenous lands.

    This goes to everything from heritability to securitization to tax breaks to limits on state and territory housing subsidy programs.

  40. Barney

    Was the result of Bol’s A sample leaked? My understanding is he got a letter telling him he was suspended and went public. In a big way.

  41. caf @ #106 Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 – 9:54 am

    a r:

    Overblown. What intel are drones and balloons going to provide that a spy satellite wouldn’t?

    The answer to that was in the article: they can prompt air defence radars and similar systems to light them up, allowing data to be gathered on the adversary’s electronic order of battle – ELINT.

    The logical progression might start with a large obvious balloon, and gradually reduce the size and perhaps vary other characteristics for subsequent tests, perhaps eventually trying multiple simultaneous balloons of different characteristics, altitudes or locations. The trick would be to do this in a way that the pattern wasn’t obvious.

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