Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)

Liberal contenders jockey to succeed the late Jim Molan in the Senate and contest the forthcoming by-election for the Melbourne seat of Aston.

We’re not likely to see anything on the polling front this week, but there is other electoral news to relate following recent parliamentary vacancies and party defections:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports preselection nominees to fill the late Jim Molan’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy are likely to include Andrew Constance, former state minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore, and Fiona Scott, who held the lower house seat of Lindsay from 2013 to 2016, together with reported front-runner Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. Constance and Scott are associated with the moderation faction, while McInerney is a conservative. Mary-Lou Jarvis, lawyer and Woollahra councillor, has also written to senior party figures staking her claim as a qualified woman and the third candidate on the ticket at last year’s election, while also criticising the party’s apparent intention to leave the position vacant until after the state election on March 25.

• The Australian reports the Liberal hierarchy’s hopes of fielding a female candidate for the Aston by-election stand to be complicated by the entry into the field of Emanuele Cicchiello, who is rated a strong chance by sources close to eastern suburbs conservative powerbroker and Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, other unidentified sources, “including some with strong Right faction allegiances”, rubbished the notion. Cicchiello is deputy prinicipal of Lighthouse Christian College, a former mayor of Knox and contestant for the seat of Bruce in 2013 and numerous preselections since. All other noted contenders have been women with the exception of Andrew Asten, a former staffer to Alan Tudge, who has since ruled himself out. Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the matter could be determined by a plebisicite of local members, which have lately proved resistant to female candidates, if the by-election is set for a date that allows sufficient time.

• Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation from the Greens last week marked the first change to party representation in parliament since the election, with the Senate numbers now at Coalition 32, Labor 26, Greens 11, One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network two, United Australia Party one and two independents, namely Thorpe and David Pocock. This leaves the government needing two extra votes when the Greens are on board and the Coalition are not, where formerly it needed only one. Thorpe was elected to a six-year term at the election last May, which will extend to the middle of 2028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,987 comments on “Miscellany: federal Liberal preselections and new Senate numbers (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 60
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  2. ”
    Escalating violence between Melbourne’s rival street gangs has become a major source of concern for police, who say they’ve seen a shift from street-based offending to serious organised crime.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/viper-taskforce-to-strike-on-street-gangs-as-unchecked-violence-rises-20230207-p5cigg.html
    ”

    Will Peter Dutton say “AFRICAN GANGS” when he goes to Aston? Or will he go on Melbourne shock jocks radio (what is his name?) and say above?

  4. ”
    Labor came to office last May, replacing a government that had steered Australia’s relationship with the United States to new heights of servility. Our ties with China were in tatters. Many had hoped that the change of government would usher in a shift to a more imaginative and less subservient foreign policy. Nine months later such hopes are little more than idle fantasy, laments Joseph Camillieri.
    https://johnmenadue.com/foreign-policy-under-labor-beholden-bereft-and-befuddled/
    ”

    You don’t say!
    Nothing changes till ALP accepts AUKUS deal in toto.

  5. ”
    NSW Treasurer Matt Kean’s Hunter gas pipeline approval has set “a tragically low bar” for landholder rights, says National Farmers’ Federation’s Fiona Simson, as the war between Santos and NSW farmers escalates. Callum Foote reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/nsw-government-offers-little-resistance-to-santos-fracking-on-the-liverpool-plains/
    ”

    “as the war between Santos and NSW farmers escalates. ”

    What is LNP Tool (aka Paul Toole) doing about it
    He allowed Cashless card in Casinos albeit by 2028 which is well after 2027 NSW State election (Nice trick tooly).
    He really is a Toole.

    I still don’t understand why regional and rural voters vote for National party politicians.

    Rural and Regional voters
    They are pocketing your votes doing nothing for you.

  6. TWU 1
    Aramex 0

    The NSW Industrial Relations Commission has ruled that they have jurisdiction to deal with disputes between Aramex (a Dubai owned gig economy behemoth) and the owner/drivers who have been stiffed since Aramex bought out Fastway. I have a relative who has been stiffed by having his pick up rates arbitrarily reduced by Aramex.

    In short, Aramex argument that NSW IR laws did not apply to them. The workers could go and whistle in the wind. The TWU, on behalf of the workers, argued the opposite. And won.

    https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/186398e4c20242c7b9812392

  7. ”
    In this special report, Anne Davies tells us about the entrenched money-laundering that is occurring in Australia, She says it is thriving because of the professions, such as lawyers, accountants and real estate agents, are willing to facilitate it. She says there is no action yet from government to act on it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/13/no-questions-asked-money-laundering-thrives-in-australia-because-of-professionals-willing-to-facilitate-it
    ”

    “In Australia, She says money laundering is thriving because of the professions, such as lawyers, accountants and real estate agents, are willing to facilitate it. ”

    I am shocked I say, I am shocked to know this.

  8. ”
    Vensays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:56 am
    ”
    Labor came to office last May, replacing a government that had steered Australia’s relationship with the United States to new heights of servility. Our ties with China were in tatters. Many had hoped that the change of government would usher in a shift to a more imaginative and less subservient foreign policy. Nine months later such hopes are little more than idle fantasy, laments Joseph Camillieri.
    https://johnmenadue.com/foreign-policy-under-labor-beholden-bereft-and-befuddled/
    ”

    You don’t say!
    Nothing changes till ALP accepts AUKUS deal in toto.
    ”

    That should read ‘Nothing changes as long as ALP accepts AUKUS deal in toto.’

  9. Q: Why are the Liberal Party even considering a Conservative Christian Male!?!

    At the last census Australia was 42% Christian, 49% Male, and increasingly diverse….that roughly makes Christian males 20% of the population…..and white Christian males maybe 17 percent of the population.
    They are a bit over represented in politics I suspect.

  10. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:05 am
    TWU 1
    Aramex 0

    The NSW Industrial Relations Commission has ruled that they have jurisdiction to deal with disputes between Aramex (a Dubai owned gig economy behemoth) and the owner/drivers who have been stiffed since Aramex bought out Fastway. I have a relative who has been stiffed by having his pick up rates arbitrarily reduced by Aramex.

    In short, Aramex argument that NSW IR laws did not apply to them. The workers could go and whistle in the wind. The TWU, on behalf of the workers, argued the opposite. And won.

    https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/186398e4c20242c7b9812392
    ”

    So now what happens?

  11. Ven

    It was a jurisdictional decision. The owner/drivers can have their disputes heard in the IR Commission eg the employer can’t just cut their wages, and tell them to bugger off when they complain.

    What is most interesting is that the traditionally ‘small business minded’ owner/drivers have – for the first time – signed up with the TWU. And the union has done the right thing by taking their case to the IR Commission and won, turning back the race to the bottom encouraged by the neo-liberals.

  13. UK Cartoons:
    Morten Morland on #BenWallace #ChineseSpyBallon

    Martin Rowson on flying objects shot down by US military

    Matt on #BalloonShotDown #ChineseSpyBalloon

    Patrick Blower on #ChineseSpyBalloon #LizTruss #BorisJohnson #RishiSunack

    Guy Venables on #BalloonShotDown #ChineseSpyBallon #ValentinesDay #ValentinesDay2023 #Balloon

    ChristianAdams on #ChineseSpyBalloon

    Patrick Blower on #UkraineWar

    Peter Schrank on #Zelensky #UkraineRussianWar

    Brighty: TREVOR KAVANAGH believes we pay Prevent £50m a year to keep us safe yet they have missed seven deadly jihadists in the UK

    Morten Morland on #Sewage

  14. Australia finally finds a purpose for spending all that money…

    Australia’s F-35s are capable of shooting down any spy balloons over country, thinktank says.

  15. “small business minded’ owner/drivers have – for the first time – signed up with the TWU” I was struck by that irony I have to say. I saw many, many smaller scale examples during my working days where people who thought “they could look after themselves” turned to a union when the brown matter hit the fan. Usually the union would support them.

  16. Ven says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:53 am

    “The NAIRU is a mystery of the universe, a bit like quantum particles, but is thought to be about 5 per cent. That’s a level ABOVE which, according to theory, inflation accelerates.”

    Shouldn’t that be Below which? oversupply of labour would reduce it’s cost & inflation?

    PS.. The blunt instrument of RBA policy requires more uneployed to be sacrificed on the alter of inflation.

  17. It’s probably unprecedented but Herzog is right to be trenchant in his criticism of the Netanyahu government. In western-liberal democracies, the judiciary is by a country mile the weakest arm of government yet Netanyahu wants to further nobble it. Israelis are most aware that an independent judiciary is crucial to a properly functioning democracy – look no further than the experience of WWII.* And that Herzog has thrown his towel into the debate says it all. Netanyahu should be serving time, not attempting to emulate Trump, et al.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondergericht

  18. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:20 am
    Ven

    It was a jurisdictional decision. The owner/drivers can have their disputes heard in the IR Commission eg the employer can’t just cut their wages, and tell them to bugger off when they complain.

    What is most interesting is that the traditionally ‘small business minded’ owner/drivers have – for the first time – signed up with the TWU. And the union has done the right thing by taking their case to the IR Commission and won, turning back the race to the bottom encouraged by the neo-liberals.
    ”

    Sprocket
    But you posted earlier that Aramex said that”NSW IR laws did not apply to them”. So why do think Aramex will accept this NSW IR ruling?

  19. ”
    Scepticsays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:25 am
    Australia finally finds a purpose for spending all that money…

    Australia’s F-35s are capable of shooting down any spy balloons over country, thinktank says.
    ”

    YEAH!!!!!

  20. BK says:
    “Sorry folks. William caught me out again. Mind you, I was quite a bit distracted by a tiny puppy on my lap as I was typing”.
    ……………………………………………….
    Hahaha. 🙂 🙂 I see your little pup has started your training already LOL. Not that you are spoiling him of course – never let it be said.

    Are you planning on teaching him how to do Dawn Patrol?

  21. “Shouldn’t that be Below which? oversupply of labour would reduce it’s cost & inflation?”

    Strike that.. Alan was referring to the increase in te rate of unemployment.. I think

  22. billie says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:07 am
    BK thanks for your daily roundup, which I will get to

    RE: Submarines bases and families
    The families of Australian submarine crews tend to live close to each other. It’s an unsung duty that the captain’s wife has to keep the families together when things come unstuck at home and the crew is at sea.
    ———————————————

    Billie
    I was wondering if in these modern days of highly professional women whether that role of the Captain’s wife continues or might’ve changed?

  24. Ven, you are right – Aramex could appeal the ruling to a higher court.

    However, we have the rule of law in this country. If a court rules that their jurisdiction applies to you, it doesn’t matter what you think. You comply, or suffer the penalties.

  26. Thanks BK

    A couple of challenging days ahead for the RBA governor and even the bank itself and its use and timeliness of data. I sense a movement in the force.

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:30 am
    Why are the Liberal Party even considering a Conservative Christian Male!?! Have they not learned a single thing from the election last year!?!
    ——————————————-
    No C@T, not even a single thing, they’re hilarious.

    And I note that Dutton is doubling down on non-existent boat arrivals following the government’s recent 19k refugee visa changes. Again missing the point following the loss of so many seats to Teals. As I see it, the Libs will struggle to maintain the few seats they still hold.

  29. The bulbous multi-headed festering carbuncle that is the Pell/Abbott Roman Paedophile Protection Society is exposed again for what it is.

    Isn’t faith a wonderful thing? What sort of person can attach themselves to such a foul cult?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-64626077

    More than 4,800 victims of sexual abuse uncovered in Portugal’s Catholic Church.
    An independent commission looking into the sexual abuse of minors in the Catholic Church said on Tuesday it had documented cases pointing to at least 4,815 victims.

    Set up by the Portuguese Episcopal Conference to examine abuse in recent decades, the commission added this was the tip of the iceberg.

    In France:
    Thousands of paedophiles have operated within the French Catholic Church since 1950, the head of a panel investigating abuses by church members says.

    Jean-Marc Sauvé told French media that the commission had found evidence of 2,900 to 3,200 abusers – out of a total of 115,000 priests and other clerics.

    “That is a minimal estimate,” he added.

    In England/Wales:
    The inquiry found that between 1970 and 2015 the Church received more than 3,000 complaints of child sexual abuse against more than 900 individuals connected to the Church.

    It was “far from a solely historical issue”, the inquiry found, adding that more than 100 allegations of abuse had been reported each year since 2016.
    …. the cardinal,……….preferring to protect the reputation of the Roman Catholic Church in England and Wales and in Rome”.

  30. Ven says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:46 am
    ”
    Peter Dutton may be sorry for not saying sorry, but he’s still in no man’s land on the voice, declares Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/13/peter-dutton-may-be-sorry-for-not-saying-sorry-but-hes-still-in-no-mans-land-on-the-voice
    ”

    Did anyone notice that

    Peter Dutton may be sorry for not saying sorry, but he still did not say sorry to Stolen generations.
    ——————————————-

    And he can’t bring himself to support The Voice because, well, he’s not really sorry.

  31. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:53 am

    Did they venture from whence such balloons might originate? There isn’t much due west of Oz.

    I’m thinking a RAAF camp site just south of Broome… just looking after their mates at Amberley

  32. Having served in HMAS Platypus in the ’70s, I found that submariners are indeed a very close-knit branch of the RAN. None other save for clearance divers & Bandies come close.

  33. So leading Coalition contenders for the NSW senate vacancy and Aston are; conservative white males with ties to churches?

    Representation which speaks to only tiny slivers of society.

    They have learnt nothing.

  37. Australian security agencies have shut down a foreign interference plot by Iran, the Australian government has said. The plot allegedly included individuals conducting surveillance of the home of an Iranian-Australian and extensively researching this person and their family.

    The home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, revealed the incident in a speech to the Australian National University today while saying a number of diaspora communities in Australia face pressure when they peacefully protest about the actions of their governments back at home.

    O’Neil also described foreign interference as “one of the core threats our democracy faces”. She vowed to “bring foreign interference out of the shadows, and into the light” so that people can be ready to face the challenge.

  38. Congratulations to the TWU for its first round victory in the Aramex case. I suspect there will be a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the company yields.

    I have some connection to the case. The Courier Please case – cited with approval by the Commissioner – was litigated when I was the Chief Legal Advisor of the TWU back in 2002. From memory we briefed Adam Hatcher of Counsel (as he then was. Keen observers may have noticed he was appointed as President of the Fair Work Commission last week). I was later Counsel for RJ Enterprises (the company of an ‘owner/driver’) another case cited by the Commission in 2012. Hatcher SC (as he then was) intervened in support on behalf of the TWU. I later sold my room in chambers to counsel for the TWU in the Aramex case when I left the Industrial bar for a full time life in crime (although ‘just when I think I’m out, they drag me back in!’: I seem to be getting an increasing number of industrial briefs again. More written work. Sigh).

  42. “ Australia finally finds a purpose for spending all that money…

    Australia’s F-35s are capable of shooting down any spy balloons over country, thinktank says.”

    _______

    How profound. Just about any offensive aviation asset with air to air missiles (or even guns) is capable of shooting down spy balloons. The use of F-22s was likely a combination of availability at the time of interception and propaganda. A-10s, F-16s, F-15s, F-15s, F-18s could have all done the job. As could the even older planes they replaced a generation ago, and the generation before that.

  43. Nuclear submarines can be just as quiet as the Collins class, Vice Admiral Mead says.

    Meaning: Nuclear subs are not as quiet as the Collins Class.

  47. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:40 am

    Ven @ #45 Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 – 8:37 am

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:30 am
    Why are the Liberal Party even considering a Conservative Christian Male!?! Have they not learned a single thing from the election last year!?!
    ”

    Look at Dutton. Enough said.

    But if they were smart they would be taking these opportunities to rebuild constructively. Like Labor did.
    ____________

    Deciding to “rebuild” would involve the Liberals acknowledging they have problems.

    Right wing parties aren’t good at that. It doesn’t fit the world-view.

    Some years ago I heard a political saying from the US: “When Democrats lost, they get sad. When Republicans lose, they get mad.”

    A brilliant saying, with many layers of meaning…
    The Right “get’s mad” at losing because they are born to rule; if they lose, it somehow wasn’t legitimate (e.g. Trump’s lie, Lib/Nat attitude to Whitlam and Rudd/Gillard govts); any loss is blamed on one person (e.g. Morrison) or voter delusion (“they just wanted to change the curtains”).

    If the Liberals start seriously self-evaluating (including considering quotas for gender balance in representation) – some of the juicier bits of the self-evaluation will leak. It will create an image of a party that no longer automatically assumes it should run the place. It would also include awkward questions about the increasing extremism of the “Liberal” membership base.

    I remember seeing a brief doorstop by Gareth Evans after Labor was crushed in the 1996 election. He looked stricken. The journo asked him a question about how the party would fare if Beazley lost his seat (where counting was on a knife edge). If it was possible, Evans looked more stricken and spoke about Beazley being “crucial” to Labor going forward.

    Labor was so devastated by 1996, it stopped talking about the transformative achievements of Hawke-Keating. There was a similar silence on positive achievements after 2013. I think it’s really important that Albo has spoken so positively about both those Labor govts.

    The Liberals’ “getting mad” after defeat probably helps them “look like” a bona fide party of govt that just needs to re-group a little. Labor’s “getting sad” after defeat may yield positive self-reflection but also can question whether the party is “proper govt material”.

    I think a default “getting mad” after defeat is arrogant and delusional. I hope the electorate might be finally seeing the Liberals for what they are.

  48. “ Nuclear submarines can be just as quiet as the Collins class, Vice Admiral Mead says.

    Meaning: Nuclear subs are not as quiet as the Collins Class.”

    ______

    I’m pretty confident – based on public information – that the current generation of nuclear subs (so Virginia class, the Astute and Suffrens) are as quiet as Collins in most tactical situations. The real issue though is heat generation, especially when deployed on very slow stealthy patrols in the littoral waters that will remain our ‘wheelhouse’ for A2-AD operations in the ‘Defence of Australia’ (ie. in that large arc from the Straits of Malacca through to the Solomons Sea). AUKUS subs are at a distinct disadvantage when compared to modern SSKs and also LEU reactor powered SSNs like the Suffren.

  49. ”
    Cronussays:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 9:51 am
    billie says:
    Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 8:07 am
    BK thanks for your daily roundup, which I will get to

    RE: Submarines bases and families
    The families of Australian submarine crews tend to live close to each other. It’s an unsung duty that the captain’s wife has to keep the families together when things come unstuck at home and the crew is at sea.
    ———————————————

    Billie
    I was wondering if in these modern days of highly professional women whether that role of the Captain’s wife continues or might’ve changed?
    ”

    Do wives of high level military officials work for security reasons? Just asking.

  50. Further to my post earlier on Ukrainian attitudes towards being asked to cede territory for ‘peace’ with Russia (today @ 6:55am) is this piece in the Kyiv Post:

    “The cry “wars end at the negotiating table” may be very much in vogue during the current Russian war of annihilation against Ukraine, but the Germans and Japanese had no choice but to sign their capitulation. That the warring parties finally sat down at the negotiating table during the Yugoslav wars was because it was enforced by military means. …

    … And what is there to negotiate with the current aggressor? Through Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Russia recently reiterated that the goals of the “special operation” remain unchanged: capitulation and destruction of the Ukrainian state and control of the entire Ukrainian territory.

    Ukrainian suffering is the very reason why 85 percent of Ukrainians consider territorial concessions to Russia unacceptable, according to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Sociological Institute, “even if it means prolonging the war.”

    To understand them read Stanislav Aseyev’s “The Concentration Camp on Paradise Street” about his imprisonment from 2017 to 2019 in “Donetsk’s Dachau” a notorious Russian prison in the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk.

    Indeed, it is rather arrogant to claim to know what is best for Ukrainians – as if Ukrainians still needed to be told how terrible war is. For them, however, one thing is worse: namely, that there would be nothing worth defending and fighting for. …

    … Yet even in Western Europe a paternalistic colonial attitude prevails, attributing to Ukraine and Eastern Europe a general incapacity to manage their own affairs.”

    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/12102

    The way the ‘pacifists’ in the West frame the conditions they wish to place upon how they expect Ukrainians to manage their resistance to their own genocide at Russia’s hands is completely arrogant and unjust. Their arguments should be vehemently rejected.

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