Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.
The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).
Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.
C@tmomma says:
Don’t solar panels absorb heat and turn it into energy?
______
they absorb light, they reflect heat.
“Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 8:54 pm
Of course bank super or for profit schemes are poor.
Yet in Australia industry funds take out about 1% of contributions as admin costs.”
But with that they produce (my industry superfund does) 10% p.a. (over the past 7 years in the Australian shares option)
At a current inflation rate 7.8% p.a. (note that over the past 7 years inflation was much lower), the performance exceeds inflation by 2.2%.
Forget it Lars, industry superfunds are the best option for your superannuation in our system.
The house of Lords can no longer block legalisation, it can only delay it for a year. It has been that way since 1949. And the bishops account for 25 out of 780 members. Not that is not a strange body, however the vast majority of members of Lords now are Life Peers. And that is just rife with corruption.
First Past the Post is used in many Countries including Canada and India. It is not a great system but using it is does not mean a country is not a democracy. For a country to be a democracy it requires more than just elections – so things like a first press, independent judiciary are important too.
Torchbearer says:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 9:25 pm
Q: “How does the U.K. with a primitive first past the post voting system, on top of voluntary voting, get rated as a full democracy?”
Not to mention an unelected House of Lords (FFS its 2023, not 1223)….complete with a dozen Bishops!
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
I’ll 2nd that.
FFS its 2023, not 1223.
Yes but what about the baby eating Bishop of Bath and Wells?
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 8:54 pm
Of course bank super or for profit schemes are poor.
Yet in Australia industry funds take out about 1% of contributions as admin costs. Whereas in Denmark they have one govt retirement fund which takes 0.1% of contributions.
Lars Von Trier you really should cut out the bullshit.
If you have a super account: your Flat administration fee is $1 a week, and. your Asset-based administration fee is 0.10% pa of your account balance (up to a maximum of $350 pa).
Why do the bank super funds perform so badly. Poor management or high fees.
Media Watch
Should be required viewing
There is reference this evening to the Gittens article – and agreeing with the content of the article
In the face of Global pressures fuelling inflation, the table of where interest rates are in Australia versus elsewhere around the World is instructive
Equity Markets are reflecting the increases in Yields AND courtesy of the outlook for inflation, so further rises in interest rates – Globally
The story for Markets is inflation, any data and any words from Federal Reserve members which can be interpreted as an easing in monetary policy (or vice versa in which case Markets dive, as we saw last week)
No doubt we are seeing a re-run of Whitlam and high interest rates with blame eternally put on Whitlam – ignoring the First Global Oil Shock which ignited inflation Globally and led to the Stock Market Crash of 1973
The media feeding a narrative to the uneducated, courting outrage including against the Governor of the RBA
Perhaps they could take on the Federal Reserve Chair in the same manner
But maybe they won’t
And perhaps they could publish a graph of where the Cash Rate has been over 30 years
And superimpose GDP and wages growth onto that graph
Or query the inflation band of 2/3% and its appropriateness
Or query the so called “Future Fund” and ask how else those (accruing) funds could be more appropriately deployed to the benefit of society (imagine 9 Entertainment running that debate!!!)
At 3.35%, interest rates remain very low and that is the fact
If you cannot service your obligations at 3.35% look in the mirror
And in regard Bank Superannuation funds, the banks divested of their fund manager businesses following on from the so called Banking Royal Commission
There are a welter of fund manager businesses – an absolute welter – to choose from
Including the business of a relation to a former Liberal Party MP who was vocal on Franking Credits
Just switched over to QANDA – apparently there are only two levers to ‘fight inflation’ – monetary and fiscal policy (specifically cutting government spending)
FMD. Neither will do much, other than inflict pain on those already suffering from the effects of inflation.
This 1070s and 80s mindset needs to be put in the bin.
The simple fact is that our current inflationary spike is caused by a breakdown in global supply chains which are the legacy of two shocks – Covid and Putin’s War. Those supply chains are slowly being reconnected. Without any assistance from either interest rate hikes or government austerity measures.
That being said, there was a case to remove the emergency settings which had the cash rate stuck near zero for years. Amongst other things cash up boomers and older Gen Xers were using it to fund sea and tree changes during Covid. However that only justifies the interest rate hikes up to about October last year. Now the Reserve Bank is trapped in a death spiral: “2-3% and damn the torpedoes!” seems to be the catch cry as it crashes the economy into a needless recession.
Short of a crash tackle we are probably going to be stuck with inflation dropping back over the next 6 months – in line with America – and then running at 3-4% pa until the world economy fully reconnects. The reserve bank should suck it up. Their monetary policy can’t help anyone or any worthwhile goal. Their target needs to be rewritten. Urgently.
There is also zero evidence that government expenditure has been inflationary in the present climate. Contra the claims of the boy chocolate soldier/ cosplaying barrister come newly minted MP for Menzies who was tonight’s LNP talking bobble head.
Frack I hate QANDA. The format has always sucked. Another thing that Keating was right about.
Socrates,
The thing that created a nuclear industry in America was building nuclear bombs. Power plants were a happy accident. Sometimes unhappy.
Whilst it was fun to see Bowen dunking on the opposition late last year about modular reactors. It’s exactly the sort of engineering that could create a industry that would help support nuclear subs. It would have been a strategically smart move to outflank the libs on that point and put 10 billion in the hands of ANSTO and CSIRO to co-develop and produce that technology. Over 15 years they could have scaled up the onshore jobs and built the infrastructure in STEM to support the next generation.
Then there’s the person problem the navy is going to have when they have those submarines. Australia needs to make it easier to have families, because kids are going to have a choice. Join the navy, get an OK-ish salary and live a pretty Austere life. Or do something else.
Anyway. There’s a lot more to subs than where they hull get’s welded together.
C@tmomma:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 9:26 pm
Mavis @ #929 Monday, February 13th, 2023 – 8:55 pm
In answering all those impertinent questions of Ferguson I think VADM Mead did quite a good job, leaving the big questions of, for example, the cost & number of boats to his political masters. And the SA economy should go gangbusters.
[‘Yes, I believe so and I believe that Socrates fears will be unfounded at the end of the day.’]
Yes, and he didn’t waffle on. Of course at age 58 he won’t be around too long to oversee the project, the compulsory age of retirement for his rank is 60*.
* https://member.comsuper.gov.au/help/milm_cra.html
I’ll be happy if my fears go unfounded for SA and Adelaide jobs. If a proper SSN construction project does go ahead at ASC that will mean thousands of long term technically skilled jobs.
Of course that would be true whether the sub chosen was British or French design. Jobs might be less with a US design, since so much of their tech is restricted.
The RAN has long had a desire to get the British SSN. See the history in this article dating back to before 2013.
https://kokodafoundation.wildapricot.org/Resources/Files/SC9-4Reynolds.pdf
I am not a fan of SMRs. They have yet to prove commercials feasible. Why do it when we have so much renewable power?
Turn it up Mavis.
VA Mead is another ex frigate commander who has been posted onshore for over a decade and whose career seems to have ‘miraculously’ coat tailed that his HMAS Creswell midshipman class colleague former VA Noonan – Byng himself. He was appointed as AUKUS Supremo under Byng’s reign, so naturally he is as utterly committed as any cult member.
I haven’t yet watched Ferguson’s interview but I suspect from the comments it will resemble a competition to see who could be the most idiotic. If he did say that the reactor is literally a black box he should face punishment on Byng’s own quarterdeck as soon as they sand off the blood (metaphorically speaking of course; I’d be content if he received the Royal order of the boot and was made to swim ashore and into forced retirement).
Fargo, “How does the U.K. with a primitive first past the post voting system, on top of voluntary voting, get rated as a full democracy?”
I wondered the same thing, but my concern is an upper house (the Lords) that is based on political cronyism and birth-right. It is anything but a full democracy. I’d rate it lower than the US.
”Yet in Australia industry funds take out about 1% of contributions as admin costs.”
Much less than the costs of retail funds.
“I am not a fan of SMRs. They have yet to prove commercials feasible. Why do it when we have so much renewable power?”
Because we won’t have enough for our primary needs, or to get enough we’ll have to decimate the environment.
E.g. check out the land use projections for solar PV in this study: https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/interim-results/
The scale of resources required to do it with renewables alone is mind-boggling.
Michael Bleedin’ Pezzulo! 😡
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/13/top-public-servant-apologises-for-significant-error-in-australias-offshore-immigration-processing
South
“ Then there’s the person problem the navy is going to have when they have those submarines. Australia needs to make it easier to have families, because kids are going to have a choice. Join the navy, get an OK-ish salary and live a pretty Austere life. Or do something else.
Anyway. There’s a lot more to subs than where they hull get’s welded together.”
Absolutely but two points to make:
1. SSNs do not make it harder to recruit sub sailors but the opposite. They are larger and more comfortable with better crew quarters. UK, US and French navies have also introduced female sub crew since the move to larger SSNs with individual bunks.
2. The bigger issue for families is defense housing and having an east coast sub base. One of many cans Scomo kicked down the road.
”I wondered the same thing, but my concern is an upper house (the Lords) that is based on political cronyism and birth-right. It is anything but a full democracy. I’d rate it lower than the US”
The House of Lords can delay but not block bills, unlike the Senates of the USA and Australia.
C@tmomma @ #2947 Monday, February 13th, 2023 – 9:28 pm
Andrew Hastie has had his eye on the top job since the day he got into parliament. The naked ambition of the man can be smelt through the TV screen. When the LNP get back into power, hopefully in 15 years or so, expect him to be a high ranking cabinet minister. He will do untold damage to millions of Australians.
“1. SSNs do not make it harder to recruit sub sailors but the opposite.”
Actually Socrates, for such a tubby boat, living conditions aboard the Astute class are actually pretty bleak: they are really cramped – oddly far more so than the Trafalgar class they replaced. There are some you tube videos documenting ‘life aboard an astute’. I was quite shocked. They compare badly against US boats and especially against the Barracuda which has a much smaller crew size (due to increased automation).
Does Labor think that the retention of Pezzullo in post gives them political cover against Dutton?
Oh and Soc, sorry I didn’t reply to your observation from the other day that we might have been at QTMR together in the early noughties.
I started in 2004, as a very green graduate in head offices on the cnr of George and Mary Streets, eager to try to do something in public economics and interested in network infrastructure (still am!). My supervisor told me, about 3 weeks in, “if your here in a year I’ll be disappointed,” and shortly after that I started discussing a PhD with a really clever statistician in the UK… so not much time to overlap, and I doubt I would have stood out.
Here We Go Again says:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 9:56 pm
Media Watch
Should be required viewing.
#####################################################################
I’ve watched every episode of Media Watch since it started and I like to watch them live if possible.
If I was God , I would force every person on earth to watch it.
The same goes for Media Bites.
Aqualung @ #2855 Monday, February 13th, 2023 – 5:50 pm
BK this little charmer is just too cute for words.
I hope you will have many, many years of joy with your new baby.
Andrew
Having had the opportunity to visit on board both a 70s vintage US SSN, and an old Oberon, the modern SSNs are still far more spacious and comfortable than same vintage SSKs. Oberons were positively claustrophobic.
There is one point I take some comfort from in terms of the personalities involved. The new Chief of Navy, Admiral Hammond, is a submariner who has commanded a Collins class boat and the first ADFA graduate to become CON. To quote his bio.
“ Vice Admiral Hammond has sea experience in French, British and US nuclear attack submarines, Australian and Dutch conventional submarines, and multiple surface vessels”
https://www.navy.gov.au/biography/vice-admiral-mark-hammond
So he should actually have some idea of the pros and cons of the various options. If he has had some say in what we are betting I am hopeful.
@Socrates:
“2. The bigger issue for families is defense housing and having an east coast sub base.”
Regarding submarine crews and family life it isn’t actually necessary to have them housed near any particular base: the next generation boats will be totally double crewed. They can be crewed on a ‘fly in fly out basis’. As long as their are relevant onshore training facilities at say Garden Island sydney (for example, but this could as easily be at an onshore base in any capital city) then any work that needs to be done in between missions can be done there with the crews being flown to and from wherever the boats are being replenished in between those missions. These boats would be at sea for up to 240 days a year (in theory) so using an average mission length of day 60 days, each crew would expect to spend 120 days at sea, but that is watch upon watch service for 60 days straight. Most of the time in between missions will be taken up with rec leave: hence the viability of ‘fly in fly out’.
I’m also not convinced of the need for two home bases. I think Navy Base West in Perth is adequate as the submarine fleet’s home port. But having two additional bases – and I suggest Darwin and Townsville for replenishment and facilities for light maintenance – would be a sensible addition.
Media watch tonight highlights the selective reporting by The Australian on the Lehrmann defamation action.
Blanket coverage (aided by a drop the night before papers are filed) of complaint against Lisa Wilkinson and Ten’s The Project.
Ignores, bar one mention I think I saw, that news.com.au and its Samantha Maiden has been served with the same writ!
The murdoch media raises the standard for hypocrisy again.
I suspect that the majority of Liberal MP’s know that they will cop a hiding if they advocate a no vote for the voice.
I reckon their delaying is tactical. They think they are burning up the government’s energy. They will come on board at the last minute.
I also reckon most of the Nats now realise they made a tactical blunder. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a gradual softening in their attitude. They will also come on board at the last minute and blame the ALP for not giving detail at the beginning.
Ahhh yes Michael Pezzullo:
Surely his are sackable offences…
If ever there was any doubt about the fact that the SMH is simply a NSW Coalition mouthpiece then you need look no further than the latest Bevan Shields ‘Editorial’. Straight up adopting the coalition talking point of the day. No balance at all. Seriously they are worse than the Tele.
Bevan should stick to admiring bookshelves.
Andrew
But the RAN does NOT do Fifo crews. All the defense housing for subs is in Perth. It is a huge issue for anyone recruited from the east coast at present who has a family.
IMO The east coast base needs to be in a big city for access to all the amenities for crews family and technical base (incl a university with an engineering faculty) to maintain the subs. It will be Brisbane, Newcastle or Wollongong. Sub bases also have a significant investment in training facilities e.g. simulators.
DM
Thanks. I was in the Spring Hill building at that time so we would not easily have crossed paths. We did strategic demand modelling there.
One of the first episodes of Media Watch showed a photo on the front page of a newspaper of five schoolgirls existing the Southport Court House on the Gold Coast with a caption that indicated words to the effect that they had just attended court after being charged with prostitution.
However, it was revealed soon after the publication that the girls had attended the court rooms as part of a school project and the paper had mistakenly them for the prostitutes.
While I believe the girls did sue and received a defamation payment with a retraction, think of all the friends and neighbours who did not see or hear about the retraction and perhaps to this day still think of those girls as prostitutes.
Monday nights would not be the same without Media Watch.
The best 20 minutes of TV of the week.
”
Torchbearersays:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 9:25 pm
Q: “How does the U.K. with a primitive first past the post voting system, on top of voluntary voting, get rated as a full democracy?”
Not to mention an unelected House of Lords (FFS its 2023, not 1223)….complete with a dozen Bishops!
”
The organisation which rates democracies is funded by Western countries.
Ah, I went over there, once. Can’t remember why.
IIRC “we” were still very MR, while “you” were T? I think it was still a bit raw for some!
“ But the RAN does NOT do Fifo crews. All the defense housing for subs is in Perth. It is a huge issue for anyone recruited from the east coast at present who has a family.”
But they could. One doesnt need to physically have the sub tied up at an adjacent wharf to do all the required onshore training there. Pick an east coast city. Any one will do (even – perhaps especially the City of Shoalhaven (Nowra), given the large Navy community there already (plus ‘relatively’ affordable housing). Base 1 out off two crews there and accomodate their families. Fly those crews to where ever the submarine is in port undertaking replenishment/light maintenance and boom. FIFO crewing in action.
DM
At different times I had worked for MRD and QT and QTMR.
The modelling unit in Spring Hill worked for MR but we were starting to work closely with QT planning to improve our consideration of public transport.
So naturally Campbell Newman axed the unit a few years later…
Ahuh.
My first task at that job was to look over an SKM report and CBA on what is now Clem 7. Basic flaws in the CBA methodology that an undergrad economist would pick out, and even I could see the traffic figures looked questionable.
“ IMO The east coast base needs to be in a big city for access to all the amenities for crews family and technical base (incl a university with an engineering faculty) to maintain the subs.”
Why? You are conflating crewing with pre posting training and ongoing maintenance. I’d suggest that UNSW would be ideal for engineer training (good faculty, existing ADFA and ANSTO relationships [although ANSTO has closer strategic partnerships with other unis]), but also so would Adelaide uni. Other than on shore personnel for light maintenance and replenishment (and I suggest those onshore personnel be based in Darwin and Townsville as well as at naval base west – Perth), heavy maintenance should be centralised in Perth and the one a decade rebuild process should happen at Osbourne.
DM
I had two of my best grads try to model Clem7 / Airport Link patronage for Tom Baskerville around then too. We couldn’t get near the Transapex claimed patronage figures. Bruce James was the QT planning person I worked with most. Both very good IMO.
Overblown. What intel are drones and balloons going to provide that a spy satellite wouldn’t?
Granted spy satellites aren’t “simple”, but they’ve existed for at least a generation and any credible adversary already has them.
Andrew
What are your views of Adm Hammond? Do you know him?
Meads interview is reported here.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/13/australia-will-have-unequivocal-control-over-nuclear-powered-submarines-insists-chief-advisor
Otherwise I should turn in. Adieu.
Overblown
HA!
Andrew_Earlwood,
I think the navy isn’t considering retention seriously enough.
Running a proper military means having lots of people to do the jobs. We can’t nickle and dime that sort of thing. America has it’s edge because it spends big. We have a small population. Fair conditions everywhere and using the military to climb out of poverty is less of an issue here.
think the bigger issue the Navy will have is being able to have many subs, at sea, all at once, with full crews and sustainment. There’s a lot to it. I know you know this, but it’s like putting mechanized infantry in the field. It’s mostly about fuel, food and spare parts but ships are bigger and more complex.
I think there’s going to be some growing pains as we try and mature our navy.
But seriously. Think about the skills of a navy…anything. Just like soldiers they too will be the darling hires of mining companies.
I know this seems like a long bow to draw, but australia sucks for young people. It’s hard out there. For the military to be viable as an option. Especially the navy, they need to make it worthwhile. That means pay and benefits that really act as a draw card for people. Think like 6 years in the navy and get your hecs waived for 50K and you get 50K cash. They are going to need incentives.
Steve 777 says:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 10:38 pm
”I wondered the same thing, but my concern is an upper house (the Lords) that is based on political cronyism and birth-right. It is anything but a full democracy. I’d rate it lower than the US”
The House of Lords can delay but not block bills, unlike the Senates of the USA and Australia.
==============================================================================
So a bunch of unrepresentative swill in the house of lords can delay bills.
HELLO!
a r,
Radio waves got in a straight line. When you broadcast around the world, you use satelites called bent pipes. If you hit these with a message, they just pass it back down to your mates like a bent pipe and redirect on an angle to get you the coverage that a straight line cannot. Now imagine shining a flashlight at a small mirror. The mirror is the bent pipe / satellite repeater. Los of light hits the mirror, and goes to your intended destination. The rest floats off into space. The NSA has satellites that site deeper in space collecting this information. The Chinese are doing the same thing, but getting slighting in front of the mirror to scoop up some light.
The Chinese balloons are a sigint platform. And probably a pretty cheap one. The real mistake was getting so bold that the Yanks now have broken through the taboo of shooting them down. So now they finally have a purpose for the F-22.
QLD had the right idea and abolished their upper house 102 years ago and no one, neither Labor, Liberal , LNP nor the previous gerrymander National party will ever bring it back.
I bet every other state government while they are in power would love to do the same with their upper houses.
Talk about being over governed.
HELLO!
Andrew_Earlwood:
Monday, February 13, 2023 at 10:30 pm
[‘Turn it up Mavis.
VA Mead is another ex frigate commander who has been posted onshore for over a decade and whose career seems to have ‘miraculously’ coat tailed that his HMAS Creswell midshipman class colleague former VA Noonan – Byng himself. He was appointed as AUKUS Supremo under Byng’s reign, so naturally he is as utterly committed as any cult member.’]
You appear to take some delight in dissing senior RAN officers. Pray tell the board the rank you achieved & the specialised training you’ve undertaken or did you miss your calling? I repeat, in my view Mead seemed to be on top of his brief tonight (perhaps you should spend more time on yours) and will probably be signed up to the project as a civvy upon his retirement on November 2, 2024 thereby ensuring continuity.
Minns idea of capping tolls at $60 a week is a fantastic idea to better Perrottet’s 40% toll rebate.
Minns and Labor are playing their cards right at present and have negated Perrottets cashless gaming card as well.
Minns has got the polls well in his favour and only needs to calmly wait till election day.
Minns should do an Albo and keep under the radar and let the Liberals keep fighting among themselves.
Minns should also remind voters of the former premier’s appearance before ICAC at every opportunity.
New thread.