Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)

The latest Essential Research poll finds no indication of weakening support for the government or an Indigenous voice.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.

The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).

Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,009 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)”

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  1. “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)”…

    Liberal party stormtrooper: “Oh, c’mon, it’s the honeymoon… it’s not gonna last…”
    🙂

  2. Posted from other thread re Voice discussion:

    Slowly, slowly.

    White Australia is not ready to embrace a Treaty….yet. That involves a recognition that the English colonisation was wrong. Coming to that humility will take at least another ten years AFTER the Voice has had a chance to do its work.

  3. she claims to speak for indiginis people yet 85 persent of members at the conference disagree with her she could argue that the average indigenis person was not invited but she is doing moore to help the no case if voice cant get up how does she think a treatey will

  4. A grisly glimpse into the shockingly low levels of morale among Russian troops:

    “Ukraine has released extraordinary video footage that appears to show Russian fighters dragging their badly wounded commander away from the battlefield, and then beating him violently with what appear to be shovels.

    A Ukrainian drone captured the incident near the eastern city of Bakhmut, where intense fighting has been raging for months. Four soldiers from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group carry their colleague through a landscape of ruined houses, holding his arms and legs.

    They then dump him next to a barn. A second video appears to show three men then hitting him repeatedly with shovels. The fate of the injured commander is unclear. But the episode tallies with persistent reports of low morale among Russian mercenary units.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/07/ukraine-releases-video-appearing-to-show-russian-troops-beating-own-wounded-officer

    Russian soldiers are in Ukraine for absolutely no good reason. They will constantly be having to squash down whatever humanity they had within themselves. No wonder they snap like this. This is a unit which is going to be basically undeployable on the front. Really, they should all just fuck off back to Russia and go beat up people there.

  5. “Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%”

    First, I like the primary vote for the ALP being bigger than that for the Coalition. Remember: ALP is one party, the Coalition is 4 parties!
    Second, I can’t blame you for the mild sarcasm regarding the “curious” surge for the Greens. If The Guardian (through Essential) wants to dispel the accusation of being Greens-Central, this clearly doesn’t help. However, for the sake of fairness, I checked the last Essential poll for the 2022 federal election and compared it with the results:
    Party……………………..Essential poll……………..Election result (primary vote)
    ALP……………………………35%…………………………….32.6%
    Greens………………………9%………………………………12.2%
    Coalition…………………..36%…………………………….35.7%
    So, at the 2022 federal election, Essential over-estimated the ALP, under-estimated the Greens, and got it roughly right with the Coalition.

  6. Aaron

    Agreed. The Greens have since said Lydia Thorpe could have stayed in their party and voted against the Voice on a conscience basis. So she didn’t have to leave to vote no. It was an excuse to go rogue. Its all about her.

    I understand Rodney Cullerton might be available to stand in her place for the Greens in the next Senate election, provided he wins his appeals 😀

    Alpo

    Either way it is a good poll for Labor and Albo.

  7. On the IOC’s reprehensible decision to let Russian athletes sneak into the 2024 Paris Games by the back door of qualification through the Asian Games:

    “Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, where the 2024 Olympics will be held, said on Feb. 7 that she “doesn’t want” Russians to compete in the French capital “as long as there is war” against Ukraine.

    Hidalgo told France Info that she was “not in favor” of permitting Russian athletes to compete as neutrals or under the Olympic flag, taking a U-turn from her last month’s statement. In late January, she argued that athletes should not be barred from competing based on their origin country.

    “While this war continues, this Russian aggression against Ukraine, it is impossible to parade as if nothing is happening, for the delegation to arrive in Paris while bombs are falling on Ukraine,” said the Paris mayor.

    Hidalgo added that she would publicly voice her disagreement with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) unless it changed its mind.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/paris-mayor-says-shes-against-russias-participation-in-paris-2024-olympics

    Mayor Hidalgo gets it. The IOC don’t. How does the IOC plan on ensuring Russian Olympic medals success is not used by the Kremlin for propaganda purposes? How do they plan on ensuring there is no applause for Russian athletes on the podium? What will they do if another athlete verbally berates a Russian athlete on the podium?

  8. “Socrates says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 6:58 am
    Bruce Lehrmann has lodged defamation claims vs Channels Nine and Ten. I make no judgement on the merits of his case. But how does an out of work, 27 year old uni dropout afford the legal fees? Who is paying for them?”

    Good questions Socrates. If the one/s behind the fees are pro-Liberal party entities (quite possible), then let’s see the reaction of 9 (perhaps also affecting 7) and 10 to that….

  9. Socrates @ #6 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 6:58 am

    Bruce Lehrmann has lodged defamation claims vs Channels Nine and Ten. I make no judgement on the merits of his case. But how does an out of work, 27 year old uni dropout afford the legal fees? Who is paying for them?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-07/bruce-lehrmann-lodges-legal-case-against-media-companies/101943590

    I think that’s a valid question. I recall something from last year that one of the TV networks had paid him a motza for an interview with him.

  10. I haven’t commented on the Turkish/Syrian quake yesterday. Obviously it is tragic, with thousands of dead. My sympathy to the victims and the many thousands of Australians who will probably have relatives in the area.

    There were reportedly hundreds of multi-story building collapses. I have seen some on social media that have “pancaked” in seconds. That suggests a lack of reinforcing steel in construction, contrary to their own building codes. There is no upside to living in corrupt regimes.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-08/earthquake-turkiye-why-do-buildings-collapse-like-pancakes/101941856

  11. zoomster,
    From the reading about Lidia Thorpe that I have done, it seems that she was heavily influenced by Michael Mansell, Paul and Isobel Coe, her mother and her uncle. As you correctly characterise it, they are all from the BlakActivist wing of Indigenous politics. They are the ones who want revolution, not evolution. That never goes well. Their numbers are small and they can be easily ignored and have been. The most influential they have been has been for the government to tolerate the Aboriginal Tent Embassy. Though it appears that the forces behind it realised that that wasn’t ever going to achieve the change they desired so they identified a way into the seat of power via getting one of their own, Lidia Thorpe, a position in the Senate with The Greens. But a, ‘my way or the highway’ stance was never going to end well with a political party based upon political consensus and whose voters are mainly of good heart wrt advancing the cause of FN people and who are smart enough to respect what the majority of Indigenous people want, not one small, angry group within the diaspora. The cataclysm was thus, inevitable.

    Also, the FN friends I have are more of the ‘evolution not revolution’ types. Willing to work together with us Whitefellas and not wanting to overthrow us.

  12. “Lynchpin says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 6:53 am
    Posted from other thread re Voice discussion:

    Slowly, slowly.

    White Australia is not ready to embrace a Treaty….yet. That involves a recognition that the English colonisation was wrong. Coming to that humility will take at least another ten years AFTER the Voice has had a chance to do its work.”

    I agree that the Treaty issue is a complex one and it will take quite a few years to achieve and a lot of negotiations over its meaning, wording, etc… So, anyone arguing for “Treaty first” is just acting as a “Voice No” stooge, whether s/he is a Liberal party stormtrooper in disguise, or some fringe radical left-winger hoping for “Revolution Now” (Thorpe-style).

  13. As expected, the RBA lifted the official cash rate another quarter of a percentage point at its February meeting. Nine consecutive increases have the cash rate at 3.35 per cent, the highest level since September 2012.

    But Lowe’s statement explaining the decision surprised many because he said “further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead”. That’s increases – more than one.

    Yet the governor also acknowledged the full impact of the RBA’s previous rate rises has yet to be felt, the economy is likely to grow just 1.5 per cent this year and next (which could easily be less than population growth), that inflation has peaked and that unemployment is going to rise.

    That is hardly an explanation for why you believe interest rates have to climb further. If anything, it’s more a justification for holding rates.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-rba-rate-python-threatening-to-squeeze-the-life-out-of-the-economy-20230207-p5cigq.html

    The householders with the highest mortgage stress are those least able to accommodate higher interest rates. So raising rates higher is only going to further impact these householders. Meanwhile we are expecting the stage 3 tax cuts to come in, benefiting the most wealthy among us.

    The government can’t do much about the former, apart from sack Lowe (who does need to go IMO), but it can delay the stage 3 tax cuts or abandon them altogether.

  14. Socrates @ #6 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 6:58 am

    Bruce Lehrmann has lodged defamation claims vs Channels Nine and Ten. I make no judgement on the merits of his case. But how does an out of work, 27 year old uni dropout afford the legal fees? Who is paying for them?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-07/bruce-lehrmann-lodges-legal-case-against-media-companies/101943590

    He has wealthy American parents with deep ties to the Republican Party in Texas. They have lots of money to run intimidating legal cases. It’s how they roll.

  15. Another good use for your EV:

    When the power went out at Nate Graham’s New Mexico home last year, his family huddled around a fireplace in the cold and dark. Even the gas furnace was out, with no electricity for the fan. After failing to coax enough heat from the wood-burning fireplace, Graham’s wife and two children decamped for the comfort of a relative’s house until electricity returned two days later.

    The next time the power failed, Graham was prepared. He had a power strip and a $150 inverter, a device that converts direct current from batteries into the alternating current needed to run appliances, hooked up to his new Chevy Bolt, an electric vehicle. The Bolt’s battery powered his refrigerator, lights and other crucial devices with ease. As the rest of his neighborhood outside Albuquerque languished in darkness, Graham’s family life continued virtually unchanged. “It was a complete game changer making power outages a nonissue,” says Graham, 35, a manager at a software company. “It lasted a day-and-a-half, but it could have gone much longer.”

    Today, Graham primarily powers his home appliances with rooftop solar panels and, when the power goes out, his Chevy Bolt. He has cut his monthly energy bill from about $220 to $8 per month. “I’m not a rich person, but it was relatively easy,” says Graham “You wind up in a magical position with no [natural] gas, no oil and no gasoline bill.”

    Graham is a preview of what some automakers are now promising anyone with an EV: An enormous home battery on wheels that can reverse the flow of electricity to power the entire home through the main electric panel.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/07/ev-battery-power-your-home/

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The RBA rate python is threatening to squeeze the life out of the economy, says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-rba-rate-python-threatening-to-squeeze-the-life-out-of-the-economy-20230207-p5cigq.html
    The Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered a ninth straight official interest rate rise to 3.35 per cent, a 10-year-high, and indicated 4 per cent-plus may be needed to tame high inflation despite the “painful squeeze” on households, writes Ronald Mizen.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-lifts-cash-rate-to-3-35pc-says-more-increases-to-come-20230207-p5cim6
    Phil Coorey says the rate rise has prompted the Liberals to return to a Howard-era attack on Labor.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rate-rise-prompts-liberals-to-return-to-howard-era-attack-on-labor-20230207-p5cift
    The country’s ninth straight rate rise will push up the cost of borrowing, dampening new home purchases and even preventing some mortgage holders from being able to refinance existing fixed-rate loans as they expire, a mortgage broker has warned.
    https://www.afr.com/property/residential/higher-rates-could-leave-home-owners-unable-to-refinance-broker-says-20230207-p5cijh
    Katherine Murphy tells us that Liberal moderates Paul Fletcher and Simon Birmingham pushed back against a decision to oppose the Albanese government’s planned overhaul of the safeguard mechanism during shadow cabinet deliberations over the past fortnight.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/07/moderate-liberals-push-back-against-party-move-to-oppose-safeguard-mechanism-reform
    In a good read, Ross Gittins argues that if GPs want more money, they’ll have to be less allergic to change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-gps-want-more-money-they-ll-have-to-be-less-allergic-to-change-20230207-p5cifi.html
    A furious row over former Greens senator Lidia Thorpe has sparked demands she give up her Senate seat because it belongs to the party and not to her, with a key preselection rival rebuking her for defecting to the crossbench. David Crowe tells us that human rights activist and barrister Julian Burnside, who sought the Senate position in a ballot against Thorpe two years ago, said she had treated Greens supporters badly when their work had won the seat for the party last year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hand-back-your-seat-says-greens-candidate-who-lost-to-thorpe-20230207-p5cilt.html
    Paul Bongiorno says that the balance of power shift in the Senate creates uncertainty for more than the Voice. Lidia Thorpe has served notice she intends to spend the next five years in the Senate throwing bombs at what she believes is the illegitimate legacy of a bloody colonialism.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/02/07/paul-bongiorno-senate-power-shift-voice/
    Lidia Thorpe’s exit from the Greens says less about her than it does about the party and the broader progressive movement – and none of it flattering, says Julie Szego.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-greens-were-dumped-not-the-other-way-around-and-that-s-their-lasting-shame-20230207-p5cikf.html
    Voice supporters need to come out in force after Thorpe’s defection, says the SMH editorial. It says it’s another reminder to supporters of the Voice that it’s time their own show hit the road.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/voice-supporters-need-to-come-out-in-force-after-thorpe-s-defection-20230207-p5cioj.html
    Peter Lewis believes that by turning his back on bipartisanship, Peter Dutton is poised to lose whichever way the voice referendum goes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/feb/07/bipartisanship-peter-dutton-opposition-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-vote
    Liberal MP Andrew Bragg will publicly lobby opposition leader Peter Dutton to embrace the Indigenous voice to parliament, labelling it a “liberal solution” to reconciliation. Paul Karp reports that today Bragg will release a position paper giving “five reasons the voice is right”, rejecting some of the central concerns of voice opponents that it discriminates on race or will fail like the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/08/liberal-senator-andrew-bragg-publicly-lobby-peter-dutton-to-embrace-indigenous-voice
    The Pontifical Mass for Cardinal George Pell – a religious event and a public event – was a funeral ritual, a celebration of Catholic resilience but testimony to the now deeply fractured relations between secular power and the Catholic Church, whines Pontificating Paul Kelly.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/pell-funeral-marks-fracture-of-church-and-state-relations/news-story/5ff903f57715c3c353ea5476d4fefe8c?amp
    The Catholic Church had an opportunity to showcase to the world that it owns the mistakes of the past. It could have honoured Pell without attacking survivors; but it did not, writes childhood sexual abuse survivor Andrew Collins.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/george-pells-passing-cannot-cleanse-the-catholic-church,17215
    Stephen Mayne says that the cashless by 2028 pokies policy is great, but he has an even better idea.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/perrottet-s-pokies-plan-raises-the-stakes-but-these-reforms-are-also-worth-a-punt-20230207-p5ciif.html
    Michael Pascoe sees the pokies industry’s fingerprints remaining on Dominic Perrottet’s policy. He points to the window dressing Perrottet used to get the alleged policy past his National colleagues.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/02/08/michael-pascoe-pokies-industry-perrottet/
    Now Bruce Lehrmann has filed defamation proceedings against Network Ten and News Corp over their coverage of rape allegations made by his former colleague Brittany Higgins, reports Michaela Whitbourn.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bruce-lehrmann-files-defamation-proceedings-against-ten-news-corp-20230207-p5cipo.html
    All adult Australians who have not had a COVID-19 infection or vaccination in the last six months can get an extra booster shot later this month.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fresh-covid-19-booster-shot-approved-for-all-adults-20230207-p5ciph.html
    Carrie Fellner writes that global chemicals maker 3M will be accused of a decades-long campaign to deceive the public about the risks of its controversial “forever chemicals” as it faces a series of bombshell legal claims worth up to $US40 billion ($58 billion) that a judge described as an “existential threat” to multiple defendants’ survival. The chemicals, PFAS, have been used in Scotchgard.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/58-billion-day-of-reckoning-looms-for-3m-over-toxic-forever-chemicals-20230203-p5chri.html
    Innovation needs to be cultural, economic and social as well as technological to address global issues, so businesses must start producing technology that has a “measurable impact” on the world, writes Paul Budde.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/hi-tech-new-is-not-enough-we-must-create-a-better-future,17211
    A group of globally renowned scientists have slammed the NSW government for failing to measure the impact of the 2019 Black Summer bushfires and continuing to log native forests at the same rate as before, even in designated high-risk zones. Callum Foote reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/scientists-slam-nsw-government-for-high-risk-native-forest-logging-since-black-summer-bushfires/
    It is shocking to discover just how dependent one of the planet’s largest companies has allowed itself to become on a single country, writes Ben Marlow who says Apple is paying a heavy price for its big bet on China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/apple-is-paying-a-heavy-price-for-its-big-bet-on-china-20230206-p5ci32.html
    With his oil and gas revenues drying up, Vladimir Putin is being forced into desperate measures to keep funding his war, and they will weigh heavily on Russia’s future, explains Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/putin-is-raiding-his-piggy-bank-as-his-cash-woes-grow-20230207-p5cifq.html
    The US State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress today – with the Supreme Court, the military chiefs and the diplomatic corps present – is the biggest pulpit a president has for talking to the American people, and indeed the world. Bruce Wolpe writes that Biden will say the state of the union is strong, but he says that’s a stretch.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-will-say-the-state-of-the-union-is-strong-but-that-s-a-stretch-20230205-p5ci1x.html
    John Major has launched a scathing attack on Boris Johnson’s handling of Brexit, saying his administration agreed to the Northern Ireland protocol despite knowing it was unworkable.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/07/boris-johnson-agreed-brexit-protocol-knowing-it-was-mess-says-john-major
    “There’s no cycle of violence in Jerusalem – only Israel’s lethal oppression of my people”, laments Jalal Abukhater.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/07/jerusalem-israel-demolitions-palestinians
    Police allege former Jewish school principal Malka Leifer, a multiple nominee for “Arsehole of the Week”, committed a litany of sexual offences against students, including at a school camp, in a school office, at the library and at her home between 2003 and 2007, as the criminal trial against her gets under way in Victoria. Details of accusations against Ms Leifer were outlined in an indictment released by County Court judge Mark Gamble after a jury was empanelled yesterday.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/revealed-alleged-crimes-of-principal-malka-leifer/news-story/438ca8d4d6da876786c1110139f2f1b2?amp

    Cartoon Corner

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    From the US








  17. From The Guardian:

    “Penny Wong overruled her department and insisted on sending an observer to the first meeting of countries that support a landmark United Nations treaty banning nuclear weapons, new documents reveal.

    A trove of documents obtained by Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws shows nervous officials warned the foreign minister of “significant” risks if Australia went to the gathering in Vienna shortly after last year’s election.”

    Ah, the public service after 9 years of Coalition government… My dear Albo, keep the long knife sharp, ’cause the public service will have to be De-Godwingreched big time!… and to Penny, well done, you have more “cojones” than the entire Coalition frontbench put together!

  18. Former Liberal staffer Bruce Lehrmann is suing Network Ten and its presenter Lisa Wilkinson, as well as News Corp Australia and its political editor Samantha Maiden, for defamation, according to The Australian ($). The Project and news.com.au reported Brittany Higgins’ allegation that she was raped at Parliament House, although originally did not name Lehrmann. He says people would have known he was the senior staffer in question. He further alleged Wilkinson “was seeking to exploit the false allegations of sexual assault as made by Ms Higgins for her own personal and professional gain”. Sydney lawyer Mark O’Brien will represent Lehrmann, the ABC adds. The rape charge was dropped against Lehrmann, the ABC reported, due to an “unacceptable risk to the life of the complainant [Higgins]”.

  19. The Age 07/02
    The head of the Maribyrnong River flood inquiry has resigned after The Age revealed his previous role in supporting planning changes that led to a riverside retirement village building homes in areas swamped during last year’s disaster.

    Nick Wimbush, a planning expert regularly used by the Victorian government, was appointed by Melbourne Water after October’s floods to run the government-owned authority’s review.
    _____________________
    Looks like the Andrews govt appointed a yes-man to head the inquiry and have been found out.
    The media doing its job. Good to see.
    Time to scrap it and start again with wider terms of reference and a more independent head.

  20. this is probaly whiy thorpes friendlinda june coe has been placced in the likely unwinable third spot on the upper house ticket behind kate feahrmann it seems shoebridge from the more activist nsw greens is sticking with the party the nsw greens have all ways stuck with the greens desbite there not getting on with the old greens leadership of bob brown isnt oneof her friends libbey

  21. not realy feruqi but wonder if shoebridge will stick with greens or undermine bandt he is close the the former nsw senater rheanon and the nsw greens along with Thorpe are moore activist then the rest of the party campaigning on indeginis ishues palistine

  22. From The Guardian:

    “Liberal moderates Paul Fletcher and Simon Birmingham pushed back against a decision to oppose the Albanese government’s planned overhaul of the safeguard mechanism during shadow cabinet deliberations over the past fortnight.

    Labor is pursuing reforms to the safeguard mechanism, introduced first by Tony Abbott, to help drive down pollution from Australia’s heavy emitters in a trajectory consistent with the government’s national climate targets for 2030 and 2050.

    After a majority in shadow cabinet favoured opposing the Albanese government’s new legislation facilitating below-baseline crediting in the safeguard mechanism, the Coalition party room rubber stamped the decision on Tuesday morning.

    But Guardian Australian understands two shadow frontbenchers, Birmingham and Fletcher, expressed concern about the consequences of opposing Labor’s overhaul during the opposition’s internal deliberations last week and this week.”

    Birmingham and Fletcher sense that the country has changed, and it keeps changing (in the Progressive direction), and they are worried that the Liberals may be confined to an irrelevant minority of hard-core conservatives (mostly old, whose life clock is inexorably ticking).

  23. Good for Penny, a tiny win for basic decency against the gargoyles who inflicted AUKUS on us. Although I’m sure her decision made Richard Marles soil his dacks.

  24. “Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 7:58 am

    …Time to scrap it and start again with wider terms of reference and a more independent head.”

    That’s the writing, in Taylormade’s head, on the other hand, this is what you can read:

    “…Time to scrap it and start again with wider terms of reference and a more Liberal party friendly head”

    Keep dreamin’ Taylormade….

  25. Lol, Tony Abbott. But what a line up of Liberal chancers:

    A factional war is brewing in NSW over the Senate vacancy created by the death of Jim Molan, with moderate former Liberal MPs Andrew Constance and Fiona Scott preparing to run against conservative frontrunner Dallas McInerney.

    Former Liberal MPs Dave Sharma, Fiona Martin and Lucy Wicks and ex-political staffers Gisele Kapterian and Mary-Lou Jarvis have also been discussed for the casual vacancy.

    Former prime minister Tony Abbott has also been calling Liberal party members to test support for a possible return to federal parliament, though this outcome is considered highly unlikely.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jostling-for-nsw-senate-vacancy-as-andrew-constance-fiona-scott-eye-run-20230207-p5cijy.html

  26. The Guardian live blog is today led by Amy Remeikis (whom I usually agree with). But this:

    “For the record, Kevin Rudd also wrote an essay for The Monthly on the global financial crisis and faced pretty much the same attacks in 2009, so it is not a new playbook.

    The lesson? Never write.”

    The lesson: Never write?… Is that sarcasm, Amy?…. I hope so…..

  27. Alpo @ #33 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 8:16 am

    The Guardian live blog is today led by Amy Remeikis (whom I usually agree with). But this:

    “For the record, Kevin Rudd also wrote an essay for The Monthly on the global financial crisis and faced pretty much the same attacks in 2009, so it is not a new playbook.

    The lesson? Never write.”

    The lesson: Never write?… Is that sarcasm, Amy?…. I hope so…..

    She said that? Seriously? Well then, maybe she should take her own advice. I mean, she seems to be advocating leaving the field open to the RW warriors because they will never stop writing!

  28. “Watermelon says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 8:05 am
    Good for Penny, a tiny win for basic decency against the gargoyles who inflicted AUKUS on us. Although I’m sure her decision made Richard Marles soil his dacks.”

    Soil his dacks?…. Weren’t you part of the hardLiberal+Marxist mob (remember the Horseshoe theory) who accused me of “scatologism” not too long ago?

  29. The futurist(amongst other things) Alvin Toffler would often ask meetings of business types “how productive would your business be if all your employees hadn’t been toilet trained?”

    Jim Chalmers is in many ways asking our business and government types a similar question regarding the way forward.

  30. Alpo @ #35 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 8:21 am

    “Watermelon says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 8:05 am
    Good for Penny, a tiny win for basic decency against the gargoyles who inflicted AUKUS on us. Although I’m sure her decision made Richard Marles soil his dacks.”

    Soil his dacks?…. Weren’t you part of the hardLiberal+Marxist mob (remember the Horseshoe theory) who accused me of “scatologism” not too long ago?

    They are nothing if not hypocrites, when it suits.

  31. BK @ #22 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 7:44 am

    Katherine Murphy tells us that Liberal moderates Paul Fletcher and Simon Birmingham pushed back against a decision to oppose the Albanese government’s planned overhaul of the safeguard mechanism during shadow cabinet deliberations over the past fortnight.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/07/moderate-liberals-push-back-against-party-move-to-oppose-safeguard-mechanism-reform

    How amusing that the COALition is now voting against their own policy, and also that those who continue to support this deliberately flawed policy are being called “moderates”. They are as “moderate” as Abbott, who introduced this policy in the first place.

    I guess this kind of thing is what happens when the two parties are so close together on the political compass that many of their key policies are indistinguishable. Things can get a bit weird …

    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/business-dismay-at-coalition-climate-policy-retreat-20230131-p5cgth

    Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said she was concerned about the signals from the Coalition and wanted to better understand the Liberal and National Party’s thinking.

    “We’ve been a strong advocate of policy stability and the Safeguard Mechanism staying in place – because it was designed by the previous government,” Ms Westacott said on Tuesday.

    Business liked Abbott’s policy not because it was an effective one – they liked it because it wasn’t.

    But with Thorpe committing to vote with the Greens on climate change, the Greens would appear to still in the box seat to force Labor to beef up the policy. I imagine heads will explode in both fossil fuel cartel boardrooms and the COALition and Labor party rooms if that happens.

  32. Some of the photos from the Turkish/Syrian earthquake are devastating and some of the stories, equally so.

    It’s hard to imagine the ‘natural’ progression that saw a woman, crushed by debris from a collapsed building, continue to give birth to a baby. The baby survived, the mother didn’t.

    Or to look at the photo of a father who survived the quake, sitting among the debris, holding the hand of his daughter who had been crushed to death beneath a concrete slab:

  33. Okay, and now I have a redeeming quote from Amy (The Guardian), regarding interest rates and inflation:

    “But that would also include the RBA board, which has warned there will be more interest rate rises coming. The RBA doesn’t just want inflation to come down, it wants it to come down to it’s target range for core inflation – which is 2 to 3%. And we are a long way off from that at the moment.”

    Good point: Why stick to the 2-3% core inflation? Official inflation is currently at about 4.8%, to get it down to the top limit of the RBA would require decreasing it by 1.8%… If they want to do it by increasing interest rates alone, how much should those interest rates be increased to get that result? What consequences would that have on real people and their real lives?

  34. “C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 8:38 am
    Look what happened to the containers at the container terminal”

    Gees, what did those containers contain?

  35. “Player One says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 8:30 am

    …But with Thorpe committing to vote with the Greens on climate change, the Greens would appear to still in the box seat to force Labor to beef up the policy. I imagine heads will explode in both fossil fuel cartel boardrooms and the COALition and Labor party rooms if that happens.”

    Oh please Pooh1, just stop playing the Green, it’s becoming truly annoying!…. Have the courage of your Liberal party beliefs, play your battles in the open, like a true warrior, not like a coward!

  36. Oh, oh … not going so well for Labor’s #MeTooBeetaloo plans to Frack the Northern Territory …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-08/nt-supreme-court-action-approval-tamboran-wells-beetaloo-basin/101940302

    Since lifting its ban on fracking in 2018, the NT government has issued several exploration permits to gas companies in the Beetaloo Basin, an enormous shale gas reserve about 500 kilometres south-east of Darwin.

    The Central Australian Frack Free Alliance (CAFFA) has announced it will ask the NT Supreme Court to review a decision by NT Environment Minister Lauren Moss in November to approve new plans to drill and frack 12 exploratory wells in the basin.

    Through its lawyers at the Environmental Defenders Office, CAFFA will argue the approval of Tamboran Resource’s environment management plan was invalid, because Ms Moss failed to adequately consider the environmental impacts of the project.

    One to watch.

  37. “Player One says:
    Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 8:47 am
    Oh, oh … not going so well for Labor’s #MeTooBeetaloo plans to Frack the Northern Territory …”

    Whereas the CLP (Country Liberal Party), the member of the Coalition in the NT, is against fracking? Really? The CLP can’t try to “frack” Labor, lest they are “fracked” themselves in return.

  38. The issue of whether an elected member should resign their seat when they resign their party arises again with Lydia Thorpe’s defection. That’s never happened before (or rarely, anyway) and it won’t happen now. The fact is, in our system, we elect people to seats, not party representatives. Now that’s usually a polite fiction. Most people vote for whoever is running for the party they favour, but the fact is, they are electing a person. Some might argue that Ms Thorpe has a moral obligation to resign and be replaced by someone nominated by the Greens. She most certainly won’t see it that way.

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