Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.
The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).
Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.
@fess, from the previous thread:
“ I can see why the Greens preselected Thorpe over Burnside – the party has been accused of being the party of white people, lacking cultural diversity among its MPs. But as so often happens when you preselect someone to be That Diversity Candidate, it often backfires because the person was never a suitable choice to begin with. Far better to do what Labor has done and have structural processes embedded within the party that allows diverse candidates to be preselected.”
To be fair to the Greens, they have other FN members and activists to draw from. Also, before pumping Labor’s tyres up too much a name to remember – Warren Mundine. A bloke that proudly trails the AO gong after his name at every opportunity – which he was awarded for ‘services to the Labor Party’ – even though he has now spent a decade nestled in the bosom of the party’s mortal enemy as one extended revenge play for not getting the nod to fill Arbib’s casual senate vacancy back in 2012.
C@tmomma @ #13 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 7:09 am
Michael has been an important/persistent FN voice in lutruwita/Tasmania for nearly 50 years now. His daughter has taken up the mantel of late.
Why’s that important? The Mansell family are advocates of treaty before voice. As is normal enough the lutruwita/Tasmanian FN people have multiple views on this, and certainly the Mansell family does not speak for everyone (or the majority tho no polling to tell). But more telling, the Mansell family are based in the north west of lutruwita/Tasmanian, and that is where the JLN has their key base of voters.
So counting on the JLN support on the voice, or voting for the referendum legislation is no sure thing.
I see senior commander of the Crown’s parliamentary kings guard David Crowe has doubled down with another hatchet job on that dangerous radical Blak activist who has infiltrated the colonial halls of power.
BE SCARED PEOPLE !!
Ha, ha, ha…. Karen Andrews (shadowy Home Affairs minister) is desperately trying to blame the government for the rise in interest rates, but, more hilariously, she accuses them of not knowing “how to look after the people”… Oh dear, hey Karen where were you for the long 9 years of Coalition government?…
Andrews: “This is the government that doesn’t know how to look after the people who were hurting here in Australia, and they are just continuing on like the modern day Boudica.”
Oh, and note the “Boudica” thing…. Does Karen read the comments in The Poll Bludger?… 🙂
Things Labor and the CLP love about about a project (half-owned by a sanctioned Russian oligarch) destroying the natural environment to frack natural gas:
1) releasing massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
2) selling the gas in international markets at inflated prices instead of domestic use
3) directing the profits offshore to foreign-owned multinationals
4) subsidizing the whole thing with public funds
Too bad there’s not like, any other parties or anything.
A date for former President Donald Trump’s trial over the claim that he raped writer E. Jean Carroll has been set despite his attempts to postpone it. In a Tuesday afternoon ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Lewis A. Kaplan ordered the trial to begin on April 25. Kaplan had initially set the trial for April 10 in a ruling last year.
Earlier in the day, the judge lost his patience as Trump’s attorneys sought a six-week delay from the proposed trial date in mid-April. “Things keep happening in this case involving your client,” the judge said. “I would be a fool not to take that into account.”
“Steve777 says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 8:59 am
The issue of whether an elected member should resign their seat when they resign their party arises again with Lydia Thorpe’s defection. That’s never happened before (or rarely, anyway) and it won’t happen now. The fact is, in our system, we elect people to seats, not party representatives. Now that’s usually a polite fiction. Most people vote for whoever is running for the party they favour, but the fact is, they are electing a person. Some might argue that Ms Thorpe has a moral obligation to resign and be replaced by someone nominated by the Greens. She most certainly won’t see it that way.”
Yep, she won’t. She will have quite a few years of good salary and secure job to be free to ventilate her Revolutionary slogans. I mean, that’s a true dream come true for her… and all thanks to the Greens. Oh well, but the Greens have acknowledged their mistake (not so Bandt) and are now back on track. Good!
“Watermelon says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:09 am”
So, ALP and CLP are just the same?… Well, I bet that Territorians will just toss a coin at the next general election.
Of course they’re not the same. This is the essence of two-party “democracy”. Make one party so cartoonishly loathsome that no matter how dreadful the other one is, it can still be the less bad option.
“Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:03 am”
Overall, I would regard the Mundine story as a pretty sad one, and as providing strong evidence for a desperate attempt by one individual to promote himself, rather than to advance the causes of his First Nations people.
Rex, David Crowe breathlessly branded Lydia Thorpe’s defection “the biggest bait-and-switch in Australian political history”.
It seems he’s forgotten the defections of Brian Austin and Don Lane from the Liberals to the Nationals immediately after the 1983 Queensland election — handing Joh’s Nationals majority government, and relegating their former party to the crossbench.
“Watermelon says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:20 am
Of course they’re not the same. This is the essence of two-party “democracy”. Make one party so cartoonishly loathsome that no matter how dreadful the other one is, it can still be the less bad option.”
But in this two-party system the worst of the two could improve on the performance of the first, by becoming better for the People, this would push the first to do even better, etc. So, the two-party system could be associated with a race to the bottom or a race to the top, it’s just depends on what the losing party does. Why is that the CLP isn’t interested in outcompeting Labor on those issues that are better for the People?
What’s left of the LNP’s “base” are generally poorly educated, senile, plain stupid, and don’t understand the global economy. They probably genuinely believe that the government has direct control over interest rates and inflation.
Alpo, C@T, of course Amy is being sarcastic and does not actually mean they should never write.
I often feel the internet has sucked out people’s ability to get sarcasm and understand why people often feel the need to put the /s tag on even the most obvious sarcasm.
“Arky says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:29 am
Alpo, C@T, of course Amy is being sarcastic and does not actually mean they should never write.
I often feel the internet has sucked out people’s ability to get sarcasm and understand why people often feel the need to put the /s tag on even the most obvious sarcasm.”
To be frank, you may have realised that in my comment I didn’t accuse her of anything:
“The lesson: Never write?… Is that sarcasm, Amy?…. I hope so…..”
BTW: Sarcasm is good, but you have to use it in such a way that the sarcastic intent is obvious, otherwise some people may get understandably confused, and not because they are incapable of understanding sarcasm, but because the sarcastic guy was a bit too incompetent… In acts of communication there are always two sides at least.
A cynical person might say about Senator Thorpe that the Greens “managed her out”, and one opinion I’ve read is that she will be forgotten soon enough, like former Senator Bernardi. But I’m not sure. Unlike Bernardi, I doubt that she will resign from the Senate and instead will stay true to herself and make full vocal use of her remaining 5 plus years, and if she learns the value of compromise, she may become one of the first people acting as The Voice to Parliament. That’s an entry into the history books. For now, the focus on the Voice has shifted back to Dutton.
Arky @ #64 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 9:29 am
The internet of words doesn’t do bitchy resting face well, I’ll grant you that. 😉
And the emoji above is the best I have come up with to express it.
Thanks BK
“ The media (which included social media) continued to be most distrusted institution in Australia. Only 38 per cent of survey respondents said they trust its institutions, a fall of five points.”
A notable though unsurprising result. Perhaps there’s a message in this for Murdoch and Costello. Hello …… anybody in the media listening?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-08/trust-slump-as-division-rules/101939406
Mostly Interested @ #52 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 9:06 am
Very interesting, MI.
Though, hasn’t Jacquie Lambie previously expressed support for The Uluru Statement From the Heart?
“Late Riser says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:39 am
… she [= Thorpe] may become one of the first people acting as The Voice to Parliament. That’s an entry into the history books.”
C’mon LR, that’s pretty offensive to the many Aboriginal MPs and Senators who are already in Parliament. Are you suggesting that they have no voice?… Thorpe will have a pretty simple choice: Side with the Opposition and become a wrecker; or side with the Government and become domesticated. Her extremism is fast leading her into a corner. Fortunately, her defection from the Greens can still be neutralised by the J.L.N.. So it’s up to Jacquie to be smart and seize the fantastic opportunity given to her by Lidia….
A short rant at how science is misreported.
Science didn’t miss anything. To quote from the article, “UQ Associate Professor Chris Roelfsema led the project…”
Arky says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:29 am
Alpo, C@T, of course Amy is being sarcastic and does not actually mean they should never write.
I often feel the internet has sucked out people’s ability to get sarcasm and understand why people often feel the need to put the /s tag on even the most obvious sarcasm.
_____________________________________
+1
Alpo, apologies, I’ve not been clear. When the “Voice To Parliament” is established, the senator will have an opportunity to be a member. For now, our eyes are elsewhere.
C@tmomma @ #70 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 9:48 am
Not to diss Jacquie, but she’s a bit like a certain US Pres, whoever had her ear last gets her support. Mercurial is a way to describe her voting patterns.
Tho word on the street is that she is very much in the pocket of business, but doesnt advertise this. There are certain very large agri-businesses and original colonial settler land owner families who lean heavily on her whenever something like IR gets discussed in parliament.
She uses her platform to say she’s sticking up for the little person, the potato sorter, but it’s a front for sticking up for the agri-businesses.
So on the voice she’s got a very vocal local FN group, and agri-business (kinda like mining elsewhere) concerned a voice could lead to land title.
Hearsay and rumours of course.
In Victoria, Opposition leader John Pesutto says Matthew Guy’s attendance at a party “is not an issue that we should be focusing on.”
How to get more attention to an issue?
Step 1. Say that we shouldn’t be focusing on it…
MI @ 9.06
Why’s that important? The Mansell family are advocates of treaty before voice. As is normal enough the lutruwita/Tasmanian FN people have multiple views on this, and certainly the Mansell family does not speak for everyone (or the majority tho no polling to tell). But more telling, the Mansell family are based in the north west of lutruwita/Tasmanian, and that is where the JLN has their key base of voters.
So counting on the JLN support on the voice, or voting for the referendum legislation is no sure thing.
_____________________________________________
Yes, but how much voting influence does Mansell and his family have in North West Tasmania. It’s the same area that elected Bridget Archer. And I’ll bet she is not going to be a sovereignty type person.
It seems to me that the sovereignty movement is a fringe movement among FN peoples and demonstrably far more so among non-FN people who will be the principal voters in the coming referendum. They will inadvertently help the Voice cause by making the point that the Voice does nothing for sovereignty. As Albanese has already picked up and run with.
The JLN will make a show of consulting with their constituents and then support the Voice in my opinion.
“Mostly Interested says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:57 am”
Re: Jacquie Lambie: “Mercurial is a way to describe her voting patterns.”
I agree, she is rather mercurial, but I suspect that she is a bit more sensitive to the “voice of power” (= Government, irrespective of colour) than others. This time around the ALP is in power, so her mercurial inner leftie may spring forward.
I am truly curious to see what’s going to happen with Jacquie….
UK Cartoons:
Steven Camley on #BorisJohnson #CabinetReshuffle
Martin Rowson on #RishiSunak #CabinetReshuffle
Matt on #Strikes
Patrick Blower on #GrantSchapps #DrDolittle #CabinetReshuffle #ToriesUnfitToGovern
Dave Brown on #RishiSunak #NadhimZahawi #CabinetReshuffle #TorySleaze #ToriesUnfitToGovern
Guy Venables on the sentencing of #DavidCarrick #Police
Christian Adams on #RishiSunak #Reshuffle
“A cynical person might say about Senator Thorpe that the Greens “managed her out”,”
That is certainly not how it looked from the outside; more that they failed to manage her in.
” and one opinion I’ve read is that she will be forgotten soon enough, like former Senator Bernardi. But I’m not sure. Unlike Bernardi, I doubt that she will resign from the Senate”
Well, Bernardi left after his “Australian Conservatives” sank without trace at the 2019 election, 2 or 3 years after he quit the Liberal Party. Thorpe will form her own party and could conceivably also leave if that party sinks without trace (or could conceivably resign her seat to run on behalf of the new party, hoping to improve its vote and recognition by having her name on the ballot). But the smart money would be full remaining 5.5 year term yeah.
” and instead will stay true to herself and make full vocal use of her remaining 5 plus years, and if she learns the value of compromise, she may become one of the first people acting as The Voice to Parliament. ”
She won’t (learn the value of compromise).
I expect the Voice will exclude serving politicians from acting.
But assuming the Voice representatives are elected in some way I can imagine she’d have enough following to be one of the people elected to it if she tries for that and can get over the rank hypocrisy of it.
The current Senate system is a bit of a mess. There’s a complete disconnect between how people are elected (overwhelmingly people vote for a party and a candidate is elected by party ticket), and how control of the seat goes to the candidate.
It leads to this conflict every time a Senator leaves a party, happened a number of times recently and this is far from the messiest split. Both Thorpe and Burnside have legitimate reason to hold their view.
The easiest solution, in my view, is to move part way towards the ACT/TAS system, but keep it simpler noting larger States have more candidates:
Below the line ballot papers present candidates in a random order within their party’s column, rather than by the party’s ticket. Not all ballot papers look the same, as the randomisation is done for individual ballots or small batches of ballots.
Above the line votes are allocated to the party itself. They are considered for the purpose of which party gets a candidate elected/excluded, but are not considered in determining which candidate gets elected/excluded.
This doesn’t entirely fix the issue – we’ll still be voting for a party, and then the seat will be handed to an individual. But at least we’ll know that the candidate had more support from the party’s voters, at the time of the election, than any other candidate and it will give more legitimacy to candidates retaining their seat while leaving their party.
Possibly so.
It’s hard to explain how local politics is in Tasmania. At under 600,000 across the state it’s actually very easy to be on first name basis with politicians at all 3 levels of government. I know several, went to school with some, have friends who know others well enough for weekly coffee.
We know who is sleeping with who.
Bass and Braddon are some of the swingiest seats in the country. Bridget and Jacquie may share similar bases, being in the different chambers allows this, but do not for a second think that Bridget is aligned with Jacquie, there is professional curtesy from Bridget to Jacqui, and salivary desire from Jacquie to convert Bridget to the JLN (which I would be astounded if Bridget did, she’s a better politician all round compared to Jacquie).
“Alpha Zero says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 9:57 am
In Victoria, Opposition leader John Pesutto says Matthew Guy’s attendance at a party “is not an issue that we should be focusing on.””
Strange comment by Pesutto. After all, he should know that for Guy the first target is always the current leader of the Liberal party, and only after the leader is gone and he is returned (yet again) to the top, that he starts targeting others, such us the ALP…. Pesutto better makes fatter, and scarier friends than the ones Guy has….
The Vic Liberals in Civil War is always good news for the Vic ALP, of course.
Amy in The Guardian:
“The Property Council has launched its report ‘A Stark Reality’ and surprise, surprise – 81% of Australians think that property in this country is unaffordable.
Wonder what gave them that idea?”
Now, that’s good sarcasm!
Arky
“But assuming the Voice representatives are elected in some way I can imagine she’d have enough following to be one of the people elected to it if she tries for that and can get over the rank hypocrisy of it.”
—
We don’t know how membership will be established. Like you I had assumed they would be elected, then thought better of it and removed those words from my post (causing ambiguity and confusion). I don’t think the Senator sees things in that way. There is no hypocrisy in seizing the best available tools to further your goals. The Greens were useful. The Voice To Parliament will be too. Something for later.
The The Guardian live thread is open to comments, in case anyone is interested to join in.
Cheers.
I could be wrong, but I thought Lambie already came out in support for the Voice. She seems to advocate for voices for the marginalised, and is indigenous.
TPOF @ #73 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 9:54 am
Sarcasm is mostly indicated by tone of actual, spoken voice, and facial expression. In print it needs an appropriate emoji, which I don’t know of, or /s, for those who are unfamiliar with the sarcasm generator, or are very literal minded. Ditto, irony.
Torchbearer @ #87 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 10:33 am
That’s what I thought.
@Torchbearer – support for a Voice and support for Labor’s specific policy proposal for a Voice are two different things.
Has Lambie told us yet what was the great secret Cormann revealed to her that made her support the medevac legislation?
She’s a loose cannon and negotiating with her is fraught with danger.
yabba @ #88 Wednesday, February 8th, 2023 – 10:34 am
There is whole reams of research about how people insert their own tone into written text. So much has to do with how they perceive their relationship with the other person. The number of employees I have had to bring off the edge due to inserting/misreading/mishearing tone in an email is astounding.
My advice, dont do sarcasm in written text unless you emoji it with something everyone understands is that tone. Use of /s has been around for decades in online forums, and IMHO should be taken up by the wider community when using online methods of communication.
VE: ” support for a Voice and support for Labor’s specific policy proposal for a Voice are two different things.”
Only to the anti-Labor green/libs. It is one of their defining characteristics. And they’ll burn Indigenous recognition to the ground to prove it.
Today’s editorial in the Kyiv Independent, arguing that supply of more powerful weapons systems to Ukraine will help end the war faster, not risk escalating it:
“The whole Western approach to this war should be changed. It has become absolutely clear that it’s impossible to end it by appeasing Russia or trying to avoid an escalation. Moreover, it is the appeasement of Putin that causes escalation.
Russia has demonstrated clearly that it will never accept any peace terms but Ukraine’s total surrender. The only way to end this war is to supply all the weapons that Ukraine needs as soon as possible.
The longer the West drags its feet on supplying Ukraine with F-16s and ATACMS, the more time it will take for Ukraine to launch new counteroffensives, liberate all its territories from Russian occupation, and win this war.
The longer it takes for the West to realize this, the more Ukrainians will be killed, Ukrainian cities will be razed to the ground, and the more economic, political and military consequences the West will have to deal with in the long run.”
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/editorial-arming-ukraine-wont-escalate-war-reluctance-to-do-so-will
Throughout this conflict, Moscow has threatened that NATO supply of whatever weapons system is currently up for discussion will provoke a stern Russian retaliation: Javelins, HIMARS, MBT’s. All that has happened once NATO has finally bitten the bullet is … continuation of Russia’s invasion along exactly the same lines as before, except with Russia enjoying less success than before. Time for NATO to stop hiding behind “avoiding escalation” as a fig leaf to cover indecision.
“She won’t (learn the value of compromise).”
We’ve been killing and hurting them for over 200 years, how dare she have an opinion that she voices!
“I expect the Voice will exclude serving politicians from acting.”
So let’s have a voice that excludes a particular type of leader, perhaps lets exclude leaders entirely, how about we have a voice entirely made up of people with nothing to say. Perfect.
“But assuming the Voice representatives are elected in some way I can imagine she’d have enough following to be one of the people elected to it if she tries for that and can get over the rank hypocrisy of it.”
She is loud and passionate and demands a treaty lets say then it would be hypocrisy to be part of the process enforced against her will, in order to meet what was always her demand.
Geez … you guys should really try a little harder to hide your insane irrational hate of a FN person for daring to have a different opinion to you on FN issues. FMD there is a huge lack of self awareness.
My last excerpt was the conclusion of the Kyiv Independent’s editorial. This quotes its reasoning:
“We see a pattern. Russia attacks Ukraine, the West self-imposes red lines, claims fears of escalation or retaliation, reverses course by delivering the weapons Ukraine requests and desperately needs, Russia doesn’t retaliate, the debate for the next type of weapon begins, repeat.
But this back and forth began long before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
When Russia first launched its aggression against Ukraine by annexing Crimea and invading Donbas in 2014, the West decided not to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine at all. Initially, Western countries sent only non-lethal military equipment.
In 2018, the U.S. finally started sending lethal weapons, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, to Ukraine as Russia showed no intention of stopping its aggression. But the amounts were minuscule and did not have much of an impact.
Even when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, the West opposed the idea of supplying all the weapons that Ukraine needed to fight Russia. The main excuse was, per usual, the fear of “escalation.”
But later, as Russia’s brutal terror and atrocities shocked the world, the West began to cross its self-imposed “red lines” despite initially being reluctant to supply lethal aid. Only then did Ukraine begin to receive air defense systems, artillery, armored vehicles, HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, armored vehicles, and tanks, albeit slowly.
Surely, Ukraine is grateful to the West for its aid. It could not have resisted Russia’s aggression without it successfully.
However, the post-2014 policy of constant refusals to arm Ukraine with specific types of weapons and the extremely slow, inch-by-inch stream of military aid sent to Ukraine has proved to be a failure.
Instead of “de-escalating” the war, this policy has emboldened Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to launch new rounds of aggression.
Putin saw the West’s reluctance to quickly arm Ukraine with everything needed as a sign of weakness. He went from annexing Crimea to invading the Donbas to a full-scale invasion to claiming to have annexed more Ukrainian territory.
This policy is akin to the appeasement of Adolf Hitler, which eventually led to World War II.
If the West had armed Ukraine quickly from the start there most likely there would not have been a lengthy war. Either Ukraine would have defeated Russia much faster, or Putin would never have launched a full-scale invasion at all, fearing a strong response.”
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/editorial-arming-ukraine-wont-escalate-war-reluctance-to-do-so-will
NATO really has a lot of catching up to do if it really wants to help Ukraine drive out the Russian occupiers from its sovereign territory. Which it should want to do, if it is at all interested in establishing an enduring peace and security for Europe from naked Russian imperialist aggression.
Lynchpin says:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 6:53 am
Posted from other thread re Voice discussion:
Slowly, slowly.
White Australia is not ready to embrace a Treaty….yet. That involves a recognition that the English colonisation was wrong. Coming to that humility will take at least another ten years AFTER the Voice has had a chance to do its work.
————————–
What is this White Australia bull shit because when i last looked Australia is anything but just a white country and people that use “White Australia” are disrespecting White FN people like Ash Barty and the referendum result will not be determined by skin colour.
“Boadicea Haranguing the Britons, from The History of England (1859), artist unknown. Photograph: Design Pics Inc/Shutterstock”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/feb/08/australia-politics-live-parliament-code-of-conduct-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-bullying-workplace-indigenous-voice-safeguard-mechanism-emissions-interest-rates-reserve-bank-jim-chalmers?filterKeyEvents=false
The Boadicea/Boadicca meme is spreading….
Mexicanbeemer it looks like everyone understands what “white” means except you
“White Australia is not ready to embrace a Treaty….yet. That involves a recognition that the English colonisation was wrong. Coming to that humility will take at least another ten years AFTER the Voice has had a chance to do its work.
————————–
What is this White Australia bull shit because when i last looked Australia is anything but just a white country and people that use “White Australia” are disrespecting White FN people like Ash Barty and the referendum result will not be determined by skin colour.”
you ‘might’ be taking ‘white’ just a little too literally there, the meaning seems so obvious to me, obvious and obviously right, but still you got is so very very wrong, but it is at the level of understanding and integrity this voice abuse match here is at so fair play I guess