Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)

The latest Essential Research poll finds no indication of weakening support for the government or an Indigenous voice.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.

The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).

Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,009 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)”

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  1. Here we go again:
    “Including the business of a relation to a former Liberal Party MP who was vocal on Franking Credits”

    Ah yes, Tim Wilson’s dad’s cousin.

    Or, as the media spun it, a “distant relative”.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Hundreds of thousands of homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages face a $16,500 repayment cliff this year that, along with further interest rate rises from the Reserve Bank, could punch a $20 billion hole in the economy. Shane Wright tells us that analysis by KPMG suggests those people who took advantage of record-low fixed interest rates in 2020 and 2021 will this year confront a financial hit so large it will slow the economy more than expected by the RBA.
    The AFR says financial markets have ramped up expectations the Reserve Bank will raise its cash rate at least three more times to above 4 per cent this year to combat inflation.
    With its continuing rate increases, the RBA is not being cruel to be kind. They are the result of an unquestioned dogma, argues Craig Emerson who says, “Not content with causing unnecessary hardship for Australia’s most vulnerable, the Reserve Bank seems determined to engineer a general recession, only Australia’s second in the last three decades.”
    Alan Kohler writes about the undemocratic independent Reserve Bank.
    A coalition of Greens, activists critical of the use and credibility of carbon credits, and linchpin senator David Pocock are squaring up for a bruising fight over Labor’s cornerstone heavy industrial emissions reduction policy, writes Jacob Greber. He says it could be a bruising fight.
    Peter Hannam tells us what was revealed yesterday at Esimates about the trouble Snowy2.0 is in.
    NSW Treasurer Matt Kean’s Hunter gas pipeline approval has set “a tragically low bar” for landholder rights, says National Farmers’ Federation’s Fiona Simson, as the war between Santos and NSW farmers escalates. Callum Foote reports.
    Labor came to office last May, replacing a government that had steered Australia’s relationship with the United States to new heights of servility. Our ties with China were in tatters. Many had hoped that the change of government would usher in a shift to a more imaginative and less subservient foreign policy. Nine months later such hopes are little more than idle fantasy, laments Joseph Camillieri.
    In this special report, Anne Davies tells us about the entrenched money-laundering that is occurring in Australia, She says it is thriving because of the professions, such as lawyers, accountants and real estate agents, are willing to facilitate it. She says there is no action yet from government to act on it.
    Using balloons for surveillance and military purposes is, by any measure, old tech. But China is looking for every possible edge over America, and finding some, writes Peter Hartcher.
    David Crowe writes that fifteen years later, Dutton says sorry for shunning the stolen generations apology
    Peter Dutton may be sorry for not saying sorry, but he’s still in no man’s land on the voice, declares Katherine Murphy.
    The AFR’s Michael Pelly and Tom McIlroy provide answers to Dutton’s fifteen questions on the Voice.
    The SMH editorial reckons Labor needs to level with NSW voters about its wages policy.
    The Australian’s Joe Kelly reports that an alliance of the nation’s most senior spiritual leaders is warning the future of religious education is under threat and that their schools will not be allowed to choose teachers who share the same faith under proposed anti-discrimination reforms. They wrote a letter to Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus on Monday sounding the alarm on a controversial reform proposal put forward in late January by the powerful Australian Law Reform Commission. Under the ALRC plan, principals would be barred from preferencing the employment of teachers with the same beliefs and spiritual outlook as the educational institution.
    It looks like The Australian is launching into culture war battle as Dennis Shanahan writes, “Anthony Albanese faces a potential political bushfire involving millions of school students and their parents, courtesy of an aggressively progressive Law Reform Commission proposal.”
    The King’s School has been ordered to stop the planned construction of a plunge pool at its headmaster’s residence after a government investigation found it would be an improper use of the school’s money. The Department of Education launched an audit of King’s last year over concerns about possible misuse of taxpayer money after the school’s council approved a request by the headmaster to have a pool built at his on-site residence. It shouldn’t stop at Kings!
    APRA will face a battle forcing super funds to change the questionable assumptions that underpin the valuation of some $650 billion of unlisted assets they own, explains Karen Maley.
    The economic case for quality universal childcare has been made, but it’s equally important its wider social benefits – for educators, parents and children – are clearly understood, writes Jess Irvine.
    Escalating violence between Melbourne’s rival street gangs has become a major source of concern for police, who say they’ve seen a shift from street-based offending to serious organised crime.
    Star Casino’s profit outlook for the 2023 financial year is pretty ugly and there’s a chance that things could get even uglier, writes Elizabeth Knight who says it is operating all alone in a war zone.
    John Pesutto has hired a Harvard-educated lawyer as chief of staff as he attempts to rebuild his office after the Coalition’s election defeat last November.
    Russia has fired its oil weapon, but it could be a blank, says Stephen Bartholomeusz. Last week Russia said it would cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels – about 5 per cent of its output and 0.5 per cent of global supply – starting next month.
    Marcus Strom looks at the problem of soft plastic pollution and the failure of governments on it.
    The Albanese government has opened the NBN full-fibre broadband rollout to 1 million additional homes and businesses, with more than half of the newly eligible premises in regional areas. A state-by-state breakdown has been released by Communications Minister Michelle Rowland as the government seeks to deliver its election promise to provide fibre access to 1.5 million Australian premises by 2025.
    In the wake of the national cultural policy release, Arts Minister Tony Burke is holding a series of pre-budget, one-on-one meetings at Parliament House with the leadership of most of the national collecting institutions to understand “how bad” their funding has become. The Prime Minister last month described the mainly Canberra-based institutions – such as the National Archives and the National Gallery of Australia (NGA) – as “starved of funds”, leading to expectations of significant new funding for the arts sector in the May budget.
    However weakened Trump may seem, he still has enough support to win a multi-candidate primary race if Republicans aren’t able to coalesce around an alternative, writes Farrah Tomazin.
    The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies.
    Israeli President Isaac Herzog has used a rare prime-time speech to warn the country is on the verge of “constitutional and social collapse” over a government plan to reduce the power of the judiciary. Netanyahu and his aides want to increase the government’s role in appointing judges and greatly limit the Supreme Court’s authority to strike down legislation. While they aren’t alone in saying that the high court has too much power, many say the planned remedy is far worse than the problem.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark Knight

    Peter Broelman

    Dionne Gain


    From the US

  3. Mavis @ #2998 Monday, February 13th, 2023 – 11:58 pm


    Monday, February 13, 2023 at 10:30 pm

    [‘Turn it up Mavis.

    VA Mead is another ex frigate commander who has been posted onshore for over a decade and whose career seems to have ‘miraculously’ coat tailed that his HMAS Creswell midshipman class colleague former VA Noonan – Byng himself. He was appointed as AUKUS Supremo under Byng’s reign, so naturally he is as utterly committed as any cult member.’]

    You appear to take some delight in dissing senior RAN officers. Pray tell the board the rank you achieved & the specialised training you’ve undertaken or did you miss your calling? I repeat, in my view Mead seemed to be on top of his brief tonight (perhaps you should spend more time on yours) and will probably be signed up to the project as a civvy upon his retirement on November 2, 2024 thereby ensuring continuity.

    +1 million

    Rank? Armchair Admiral

  4. RossMcg @ 7.20pm

    It was my belief and understanding that Tony Burke had, or was planning, to initiate a review of the AAT.
    This review would be become the basis for disbanding the current AAT and creating a new body – minus the LNP parasites.
    Or is he waiting for the interim or final determination of the Robodebt Commission, before he makes this determination.

  5. @socrates.

    I dont have an opinion of the current head of navy, but him being an ex submariner is encouraging. However, the AUKUS die has been cast without the involvement of senior officers from the submarine service: only retired US Navy submariners seem to have had any input. Yo are right – the navy (by which I mean mostly a cadre of ex Frigate commanders) have long lusted after RN Nuclear subs. Basically (and one can see this first hand if one gets the ‘pleasure’ of being invited to dine in the officers mess) the Navy is chokers with blokes who wish they were either in the RN (the senior service, what!) or at least an cadet branch of the USN with all their impressive tech. they were never happy with partnering with the spanish (AWDs and LHDs), let alone the French (‘remember Trafalgar old boy. What!’).

    Of course, dear old Mavis will have conniptions about characterising the Navy brass this way, but FMD – as a tax payer – we are not getting value for money from most of their ‘decisions’. The only parts of the service i really respect are the actual submariners and clearance divers – because both are inherently hard jobs – regardless of whether we are at peace or not. This tends to bring good, sensible and practical folk to the top of the tree, IMO.

  6. @Socrates. I think Turnbull tweeted an important point after Mead’s interview last night:

    “ Turnbull said on Monday evening: “I think the question which has not been answered is: could the submarines be operated if US technical advice/support were withdrawn? The entire resources of the Australian news media have been unable to pin the government or the navy down on that.”


    Personally, I dont care if for the first few years of operation our nuclear subs embark a mixed crew. It actually makes sense, because there will inevitably be several years of at sea service before our capability is fully mature. I think the focus on crewing is a distraction from the two key ‘sovereignty’ considerations. Turnbull has hit the first consideration on the head. The second is even more critical: “can the US or UK government simply ‘turn off’ our submarine capability if there is some sort of diplomatic disagreement as between allies? Would this fact then deter the Australian Government from putting Australia’s interests ahead of America or Britain’s if it was faced with another Gulf War moment: would it counsel against actions that were adverse to Australia? Would it have the courage to say ‘no’?”

    It is this second consideration that worries me most. AUKUS subs are only truly ‘superior’ to other options if one is planning for direct Australian involvement in a war in North Asia. In other words against china and in the South China Sea and northwards. Probably over some Taiwanese pretext. As a matter of strategic fact such a conflict is not Australia’s strategic concern: the defence of Australia is. That is not to say we would not get involved (collective defence, ‘standing up to bullies’ etc etc) but that would be ‘an extra’ to our main game. therefore we should – IMO must – maintain the ability to at least think critically as to whether we chose to get involved, and if so HOW we get involved. Frankly, we do not have the foreign policy, or defence policy or treaty relationship structures in place for that task. In fact, we are running away at a million miles an hour from putting that framework in place. This has obvious – and terrifying – sovereignty implications for Australia.

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