Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

A steady lead for Labor, a softening of approval for Anthony Albanese, and solid support for an Indigenous voice to parliament.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down five on approval to 57% and up four on disapproval to 33%, while Peter Dutton is steady at 36% and up one to 46%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-24 to 56-26.

There were further questions on the Indigenous voice to parliament, which found 56% in support (28% strongly and 28% partly) and 37% opposed (23% strongly and 14% partly). Extensive further detail on why respondents felt the way the did. The most favoured among listed of reasons for those opposed was that “it won’t help the issues facing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,539 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. citizen says:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 6:05 pm
    Somebody told her that Elvis is still alive?

    “Thorpe really wants to meet the king” (Oz headline)
    中华人民共和国
    Ahem. Johnny O’Keefe

  2. “WWP – RJLH confronted a wasteland, and gave Labor 13 years in power for reconstruction.”

    For sure, even Paul doesn’t contest that, although I think he has claimed Bob started phoning it in well short of the finish line, and Paul definitely forgot to credit Bob with Mabo, although he was worse at sharing credit than he is at self reflection!

  3. What’s missing is the third ‘well being’ objective.

    That third pillar is there in writing. “the welfare of the people of Australia”. But try keeping your ideological or political bias out of that intangible. Impossible. Which is why the RBA must be more representative and accountable.

  4. “One-in-eight Australians have skipped meals or eaten less to pay energy bills and ….”, here’s Morgan on going without, https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/to-address-rising-energy-costs-australians-want-long-term-solutions-from-the-government-rather-than-temporary-reliefs, so why did it prioritise the ATSI 3% of population, rather than inequality/ poverty …
    I reckon more from Labor on inequality/ poverty and less on the VTP.

    And noted that ALP/ Libs/ Nats are doing an extension to offshoring refugees.

    Anything yet on Julian Assange …

  5. Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 6:15 pm
    Were Biden to visit Kyiv or Lviv would the Russians try to kill him?
    Plenty else that could go wrong. A clear cut, deliberate, state sanctioned assassination may not be the worst of them!

    “Thorpe really wants to meet the king” (Oz headline)
    He is playing tomorrow @ 1.30pm and needs 30 odd for the all time record.
    中华人民共和国
    I raise your King and give you an Emperor.

    The Emperor of Lang Park none the less. Walter James Lewis AM.

  6. WeWantPaul @ #1393 Tuesday, February 7th, 2023 – 6:15 pm

    “Makarrata is the answer. Not your answer, of course. Their answer.”

    Surely it has to be OUR mutual answer?

    Obviously that would inform the constitutional structure and power of the voice of self determination, if you did it the other way around.

    Ok, let’s put it this way – they have asked us to use their process by asking us to establish a Makarrata Commission. If we are lucky, they may ask us to participate in it.

    Of course, we don’t have to do either of these. We could just impose our own solution, as AE apparently wants to.

  7. The RBA has 2 objectives

    1. Keep inflation within the 2-3% band
    2. Maintain full employment

    The RBA has a third statutory objective which is the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. However since the 90s they have adopted an “inflation targeting” regime meaning that only one of the three objectives actually matters. “Full employment” means employment at the NAIRU, a fictitious “natural” rate of unemployment which is conveniently always pretty close to the actual rate.

    It will be interesting to see what comes out of the review since the independence of the central bank (i.e. the dictatorship of money markets) is absolutely sacrosanct under modern liberal capitalism. But if Chalmers doesn’t have the balls give Lowe the boot then he deserves to go down in history as All Tip No Iceberg.

  8. “The Emperor of Lang Park none the less. Walter James Lewis AM.”

    He must be a deity by now he was an emperor already when as a kid I took a picture of him outside the Brisbane Town hall.

  9. Upnorth, can’t not comment on Johnny O’Keefe – The King of Rock and Roll

    As a student in short pants at Kingsgrove High School, somehow found myself in the school hall with Johnny O’Keefe on the stage.

    He was ‘over the hill’ by this point, but belted out Shout, She’s My Baby, Move Baby Move and other of his hits.

    Sadly, he died soon after at 43 – supposedly from a drug overdose.

  10. re Bob Hawke calling for a Treaty 30 years ago. Only those with ossified thinking, or a malevolent bent, would bring that up now as some sort of guide to the way thinking should be at present. A position which should be preserved in aspic, as it were. Whereas, if Prime Minister Hawke were still around today, you could guarantee that, post The Uluru Statement From the Heart, his thinking would have changed to Voice, Treaty, Truth, as per the Indigenous Elders’ wishes.

  11. sprocket_ @ #1409 Tuesday, February 7th, 2023 – 6:34 pm

    Upnorth, can’t not comment on Johnny O’Keefe – The King…

    As a student in short pants at Kingsgrove High School, somehow found myself in the school hall with Johnny O’Keefe on the stage.

    He was ‘over the hill’ by this point, but belted out Shout, She’s My Baby, Move Baby Move and other of his hits.

    Sadly, he died soon after at 43 – supposedly from a drug overdose.

    Johnny O’Keefe died on 6 October 1978, from a heart attack induced by an accidental overdose of prescription barbiturates.
    Wikipedia

  12. C@tmomma @ #1411 Tuesday, February 7th, 2023 – 6:36 pm

    re Bob Hawke calling for a Treaty 30 years ago. Only those with ossified thinking, or a malevolent bent, would bring that up now as some sort of guide to the way thinking should be at present. A position which should be preserved in aspic, as it were. Whereas, if Prime Minister Hawke were still around today, you could guarantee that, post The Uluru Statement From the Heart, his thinking would have changed to Voice, Treaty, Truth, as per the Indigenous Elders’ wishes.

    Right. So we are not allowed to wonder what Bob Hawke would have done, but you – who apparently knew him intimately – are allowed to tell us.

    Christ, what parallel universe have I fallen into this time around?

  13. The Age 07/02
    Independent MPs have accused Labor of trying to thwart transparency and gag debate over offshore detention after the government tried to urgently push through legislation to renew Nauru as an immigration detention location with less than 24 hours notice.

    The opposition accused the government of dropping the ball on border security after it emerged Nauru’s official designation for offshore processing lapsed four months ago. Labor moved on Tuesday to renew the Pacific island nation’s status by shoehorning the renewal measure into the parliamentary agenda.
    _____________________
    PMSL.
    I don’t know which is funnier. Gagging the debate or missing the expiry date.
    Eeny, meeny, miny, moe.

  14. Socrates @ #1386 Tuesday, February 7th, 2023 – 6:10 pm

    As I suggested, unions are starting to get wind of what a new US/UK design AUKUS SSN means for local shipbuilding jobs, or lack thereof, for up to the next ten years.
    https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-a-plan-b-unions-have-deep-concerns-about-aukus-pact-20230206-p5ciaf.html

    Also, while Marles may say he wants local industry to develop capability, that simply won’t happen unless there is an announced plan with dates and a budget. Who is going to recruit and train people for work that doesn’t exist till 2030?

    Ever considered the idea that it might take the government that long to train the personnel and give them work experience in the UK or US before they settle into their jobs in Australia?

  15. Rex Douglas @ #1412 Tuesday, February 7th, 2023 – 6:37 pm

    You know something is up when ALP and Coalition are voting together against the crossbench to rush through instrument extending processing of refugees on Nauru for 10 yrs without proper debate! #refugees #auspol— Zali Steggall MP (@zalisteggall) February 7, 2023

    #LibLab

    #SameSame

    Don’t exaggerate, Rex. Apart from Climate policy, Defence policy, Tax policy, Biodiversity policy and now Immigration policy, the two are poles apart!

  16. Simon Henny Penny Katich at 6:43 pm

    The Emperor of Lang Park none the less.

    I thought even QLD’ers turned off that Wally after recent events.

    He’s been caught drinking Tooheys?

  17. C@t 6.36pm – of course you are one of the few posters on here to claim to have had a meeting with Robert James Lee Hawke. Yet you have been strangely reticent to share details on here of your meeting with Bob.

  18. I really hope the UK MoD is correct in this intelligence assessment of Russia’s capacity for offensive operations:

    “Russia almost certainly now lacks the munitions and manoeuvre units required for successful offensives, UK Ministry of Defence says

    Moscow will continue to demand sweeping advances, but it remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war in the coming weeks, according to the UK Ministry of Defence’s latest intelligence update.

    The update comes as Russia pours reinforcements into eastern Ukraine ahead of a new offensive that could begin next week.

    The update said:

    “Russian forces have only managed to gain several hundred metres of territory per week. This is almost certainly because Russia now lacks the munitions and manoeuvre units required for successful offensives. Senior commanders likely make plans requiring undermanned, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic objectives due to political and profession pressure.”

    The update said it’s highly likely Russia has been attempting to re-start offensive operations in Ukraine since early January this year, and almost certainly with the goal of capturing the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk oblast.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-moscow-moves-troops-into-eastern-ukraine-ahead-of-new-offensive-luhansk-governor-says

    Certainly, Russian units have been making gains north and south of Bakhmut in Donetsk, and currently threaten both roads leading out of Bakhmut to Ukrainian positions to its west. Hopefully, this UK MoD assessment means Russia will not get much further there, if at all.

  19. “However, like many you interpret the term “culmination” to mean Makarrata must come after Voice. But that’s not what it means (or at least not necessarily what it means). The term Makarrata has no exact parallel in English – it refers to both the outcome and the process used to get there. ”

    Thanks for that reply P1, and it is my fault not an error on your part, but I didn’t mean to endorse the interpretation of ‘culmination’ in that context, I was just trying to honest and if I’d spent weeks posting absolute rubbish about an order that doesn’t seem to exist as far as I can find, I’d be putting all my eggs in a basket and hanging it off that particularly precarious limb.

    “Ok, let’s put it this way – they have asked us to use their process by asking us to establish a Makarrata Commission. If we are lucky, they may ask us to participate in it.

    Of course, we don’t have to do either of these. We could just impose our own solution, as AE apparently wants to.”

    I think there is a very important distinction between being engaged in the process and led for within it. But the preface on the website, clearly is to us (a communication skill some might want to develop, others including my self might want to deploy more often, after basic reading comprehension), all of us, not at the us the white colonisers, it is very inclusive:

    “In May 2017, over 250 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Delegates from all points of the Southern Sky gathered in Mutitjulu in the shadow of Uluru and put their signatures on a historic statement. The Uluru Statement From The Heart addressed to the Australian people invited the nation to create a better future via the proposal of key reforms.”

  20. Cat

    “ Ever considered the idea that it might take the government that long to train the personnel and give them work experience in the UK or US before they settle into their jobs in Australia?”

    Sorry no Cat that is going to cause many problems. Firstly it suggests no New jobs for Adelaide’s existing sub builders for 7 years. Second a complete engineering degree is 4 years. Why would you even start a highly specialised degree now if you are waiting 3 years for work at the finish? Third what is the UK or US work experience? Who pays the relocation costs? Who with a family would do that. Fourth it suggests a sub capability gap that will se the end of the careers of most current RAN sub crews. Finally this means a previously promised economic input to the Adelaide economy is delayed 7 years.

    Your suggestion basically says all the SSN jobs will be aimed at new industry entrants and all incumbent workers will be cut loose. And no Collins LOTE will not employ them all, that is different work.

    I realise you are parroting the defense line and do not work in engineering, but I am telling you they are making stuff up.

  21. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 6:55 pm
    C@t 6.36pm – of course you are one of the few posters on here to claim to have had a meeting with Robert James Lee Hawke. Yet you have been strangely reticent to share details on here of your meeting with Bob.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Has she/did she and if so what’s it got to do with you?
    (Actually I visited Bob on two occasions when he lived in Sandringham in relation to gambling settlement.)

  22. sprocket_
    Knowing not of what you referred to Mr Google was given a call. By George you were on to something….

    I’ll never forget the Australian captain Wally Lewis bungy jumping off the Mt Smart Stadium roof after a test in the late 1980s, rather than attending to his post-match duties.

    That, after Lewis had in effect told test league to take a running jump by bemoaning throughout the tour that he had been dragged away from his precious Brisbane Broncos.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/emchris-rattueem-kangaroos-waste-no-time-reigniting-fires/BJXLRMAFUY7CLQAKAJIMYM2QQQ/

  23. Taking my cue from sprocket’s close encounter with JOK:

    In my student days I played for pleasure and little profit in a covers band. We scored a booking for an in-store promotion of a boutique named Fifi’s Gearbox (well, it was the 1970s).

    We played short sets for the punters passing the corner of Albert and Queen in downtown Brisbane. At one point during the day, our nonentity status was boosted by a brief (non-performing) appearance by none other than Johnny O’Keefe.

    I was introduced to the Great Man, shook his hand, and posed for a photo with a couple of models, who then disappeared as quickly as they had materialised.

    After JOK left the scene, one of my bandmates reported a conversation he’d overheard between the star and his minder as he was being led to meet me:

    ‘Who’s this c**t?’

  24. Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 6:49 pm

    poroti @ #1420 Tuesday, February 7th, 2023 – 6:18 pm

    Simon Henny Penny Katich at 6:43 pm

    The Emperor of Lang Park none the less.

    I thought even QLD’ers turned off that Wally after recent events.

    He’s been caught drinking Tooheys?

    Something like that.
    中华人民共和国
    Even Hawkie was not perfect in “matters of the flesh” and I still reckon he is Bonza. Wally will always be the Emperor and has the statue to prove it!

  25. My one brush with RJL Hawke was at UNSW in 2002 (I think. It might have been 2003 or 2004.). My girlfriend (now wife) and I went to a talk he gave in the Law Library one afternoon. We were already in the lift about to go up and the doors were closing. I saw him and his entourage rushing for the lift, but I was too late to open them again. I felt awful and hoped like hell he hadn’t seen me. We sat at the front but it looked like he didn’t recognise it was I who had so abjectly failed to keep the lift door open for him.

    My one brush with PJ Keating was at the Royal Easter Show at Moore Park in 1997. I was in the produce display pavilion looking at some enormous pumpkins when he bumped into me in his checked flannelette shirt (I kid you not). He graciously apologised and I was able to mutter “Don’t mention it”.

    My one brush with Kim Beazley Jr was at a seminar at Canberra Grammar in 1989 he spoke at, while he was Defence Minister. At the refreshments afterwards I was able to ask him why he has decided to pass over Newcastle as the site for the manufacture of the Collins-class submarines in favour of Adelaide. (I come from Newcastle, and this decision was a big deal there back then.) He answered very politely, but in not very flattering terms towards the bid from the Newcastle-based consortium. I came away with the distinct impression of someone very willing and able to explain his decisions, even to probable sceptics. And also of a cabinet minister who took his duties to the greater national good very seriously.

  26. Oh dear, can the obtuse ones just stop obtusing themselves?

    It’s Voice, Treaty, Truth …. and Makarrata is a word for Treaty. So, if you prefer Makarrata, then it’s: Voice, Makarrata, Truth.

    “Makarrata is a word in the Yolngu language meaning ‘the resumption of normal relations after a period of hostilities’. Some people have preferred the word Makarrata because they felt the word treaty was too divisive and more often describes agreements between countries rather than within countries between different parts of the population. First Peoples have sought a fair place in our country along with constitutional recognition as far back as Yorta Yorta elder William Cooper’s letter to King George VI (1937), the Yirrkala Bark Petitions (1963), the Larrakia Petition (1972) and the Barunga Statement (1988).
    Many Prime Ministers of the modern era were conscious of the original omission of First Peoples from our constitutional arrangements. Gough Whitlam spoke of the need for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples to take “their rightful place in this nation”.”

    Now it’s time to talk about the Voice and absolutely nothing else. Get the Voice passed first and above all…. Vote YES!

    Liberal party stormtroopers should stop their stupid propaganda that desperately wants to confuse the readers and decrease the chance for a YES win at the coming Voice referendum!…. You won’t achieve your pathetic objective.

  27. Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
    “Maybe Plastic Bertrand is who Thorpe had in mind?”

    Cormann’s countryman.

    Sing along with Mathias now:

    “Ca plane pour moi
    Ca plane pour moi
    Ca plane pour moi, moi, moi, moi, moi …”

  28. “Player One says:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 6:44 pm
    Rex Douglas @ #1412 Tuesday, February 7th, 2023 – 6:37 pm

    You know something is up when ALP and Coalition are voting together against the crossbench to rush through instrument extending processing of refugees on Nauru for 10 yrs without proper debate! #refugees #auspol— Zali Steggall MP (@zalisteggall) February 7, 2023

    #LibLab

    #SameSame

    Don’t exaggerate, Rex. Apart from Climate policy, Defence policy, Tax policy, Biodiversity policy and now Immigration policy, the two are poles apart!”

    That’s a stupid comment, and you know it, Pooh1. But hey, if the ALP and Coalition are just the same, at the next election you surely will vote for the ALP… are you?….

  29. Shallow Ashley Raper interview Perrottet & Minns… single questions no backups to get more info.. wouldn’t be surprised if Perrottet & Minns were give the questions before

  30. Oh, it looks like the Liberal party stormtroopers here (you know who they are!), have suddenly become worried about humanitarianism towards refugees!

    Ha, ha, ha…. Buffoons!…. It’s in Government when you have to show humanitarianism, you Morons. If you don’t know what I am talking about, just ask the Murugappan family of Biloela! The Liberals and their stormtroopers playing the fake humanitarians in opposition is just laughable!

    Ha, ha, ha!

  31. “Shocked to hear of the allegations against Barry Cable.

    This is old news. Allegations of him being a kiddy fiddler were first raised in the 90’s.

  32. “Russia’s oil and gas revenues plunged 46% in January, compared with the same month in 2022”

    Good, and now let’s see how Putin is going to respond to the growing outrage of the Russian people: their sons dead, revenues of the country plunging.

    Putin is desperately launching an offensive in the Ukrainian disputed territories in order to seize the initiative. So far, the Ukrainians are resisting, and military help from Allies is coming soon.

  33. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 7:22 pm
    I think your a fantasist Dr John and I’m calling c@tshit. Supposedly a deceased Melbourne mobster stole millions from your family home and now you claim to have visited Bob Hawke at his then home to collect gambling debts.

    Any other tall tales?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Like your slagging c@t you never get your slagging facts right not to mention your knowledge of real life outside your world.

    I never said (see above 7.09pm) I was collecting gambling debts from Bob Hawke.
    Actually I was paying Bob betting monies I owed!
    Wish it was fantasy like you.

  34. Dr John, you also claimed to have partied with the Rolling Stones and gone on a date with Denise Drysdale. It’s a lot to take in.

  35. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 6:55 pm
    C@t 6.36pm – of course you are one of the few posters on here to claim to have had a meeting with Robert James Lee Hawke. Yet you have been strangely reticent to share details on here of your meeting with Bob.

    Only a complete “deadshit” would post that on any blog .

  36. nath says:
    Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 7:39 pm
    Dr John, you also claimed to have partied with the Rolling Stones and gone on a date with Denise Drysdale. It’s a lot to take in.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Your claims are inaccurate so retrieve and review your legacy data.
    As an aside did I ever mention Meat Loaf?

  37. Alpo at 11.41 am

    You say: “Pootin was a Marxist in his youth, otherwise he would have been never able to rise up the top of the Soviet/Russian leadership.”

    This is rubbish. When Yeltsin broke up the USSR in 1991, Putin was a nobody. He had been a fairly low level KGB spy in Dresden in November 1989 when the Berlin wall fell. One of his main personal gripes is that he had to moonlight as a taxi driver back in St Petersburg. However, he soon got rich, embezzling as the key official liaising with foreign firms in the St Petersburg Mayor’s office.

    He was never near the top of the Russian leadership until the Yeltsin clique promoted him. Then he rose “faster than yeast”, as a disgruntled official in Kazakhstan observed about the future Kazakh President Nazarbayev in the late 1980s. Somewhere I have a Russian Who’s Who book, published in the mid 1990s. Thousands of entries on significant people across Russia; nothing on Vladimir Putin.

  38. Hmmm …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-07/bp-announces-record-profit-on-gas-oil-prices/101943144

    British energy company BP reported record annual earnings on Tuesday amid growing calls for the UK government to boost taxes on companies profiting from the high price of oil and natural gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    The London-based company said underlying replacement cost profit, which excludes one-time items and fluctuations in the value of inventories, jumped to $US27.7 billion ($40 billion) in 2022 from $US12.8 billion a year earlier.

    What the Brits call a “nice little earner”.

  39. Watermelon: ” The RBA has 2 objectives 1. Keep inflation within the 2-3% band 2. Maintain full employment ”

    ? Really? I thought those were the objectives of the US federal reserve, but the RBA only targeted inflation? Happy to be wrong, but I thought I remembered that from years ago.

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