The Australian reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down five on approval to 57% and up four on disapproval to 33%, while Peter Dutton is steady at 36% and up one to 46%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-24 to 56-26.
There were further questions on the Indigenous voice to parliament, which found 56% in support (28% strongly and 28% partly) and 37% opposed (23% strongly and 14% partly). Extensive further detail on why respondents felt the way the did. The most favoured among listed of reasons for those opposed was that “it won’t help the issues facing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.
Well done, Anthony Albanese and the Labor team.
New thread, new issues.
From The Guardian:
“Jim Chalmers says it’s absurd to expect him to copy Paul Keating as critics lash values-based capitalism essay”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/05/jim-chalmers-says-its-absurd-to-expect-him-to-copy-paul-keating-as-critics-lash-values-based-capitalism-essay
Keating and his policies were good representatives of the international mood that was widespread around the capitalist world during the late 1980s and 1990s (Neoliberalism). Chalmers is a Treasurer for the 21st century. The priority in 2023 is to reform capitalism in a way that is economically productive, but socially fair and environmentally sustainable. That’s what Chalmers and the ALP are about.
All those in parliament who oppose the Voice should be deported or sent to an offshore detention camp.
Alpo @ #2 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 11:07 pm
Sure. That, and Neoliberalism 🙁
Hi All,
A solid lead among those who will vote “Yes” for the voice.
That is actually a great outcome. Australia is a laggard when it comes to recognising the harm done to the First Nations peoples by colonisation, and it is great to see we are about to finally recognise the first peoples in our constitution.’
Of course, on top of this, “the Voice to parliament (non-binding)” will allow the members of the unbelievably disadvantaged first nations communities to suggest their solutions, formed from what they understand works on the ground, and what does not.
“Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor “….
Excellent result!
“The Australian reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one)”… So, the Coalition and their mates’ brouhaha about the Voice referendum isn’t trickling down into the Coalition primary vote, nor it’s significantly affecting the ALP primary vote…. GOOD!
Alpo,
Don’t rise to the fresh bait.
From the previous thread, I think this still applies.
“ Two thoughts on this poll. First, after more than six months in the top job, Albo’s numbers are not a “honeymoon”. They reflect voter satisfaction for an essentially decent man doing what he promised as PM. What a change that is!
Second, the lack of any bounce for Dutton show little or no voter interest for him. Dutton is not new to Federal politics. There is not much upside for him to look forward to as voters “get to know him better”. They already know.
Dutton’s recent stunts on turning a paedophile protector’s funeral into a national event, and opposing the Voice, shows he hasn’t got a new policy idea in his body. Its more of the negative, divisive, same. So why should he expect more votes?
It will be interesting to see how much Perrottet invites Dutton to NSW for the State campaign. Not much I’ll wager.”
“Player One says:
Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 11:09 pm”
Hey you, ignorant Pooh1, go back to the old thread! What are you doing here…
Capitalism needs reining in, but first, we have to put a bridle on it. It has been running wild trampling everything in the paddock for the last thirty years. It could do with neutering as well. That is very good for taming fractious male horses. Actually, I have often wondered if some of our more toxic right-wing nutter males could be fixed that way. LOL
Oh dear, the voters are not following Newscorp’s instructions.
“There were further questions on the Indigenous voice to parliament, which found 56% in support (28% strongly and 28% partly) and 37% opposed (23% strongly and 14% partly).”
That’s an excellent result for the YES to the Voice, because it suggests that there are only 7 % of undecideds… So much for the “confusion” and “lack of information” so beloved by Dutton.
…. and the official campaign of information hasn’t started yet!
With a Newspoll like this to kick off a new year, it’s definitely not time for The Cruel Sea yet, or anytime soon hopefully.
”The priority in 2023 is to reform capitalism in a way that is economically productive, but socially fair and environmentally sustainable. That’s what Chalmers and the ALP are about.”
A lot of things have changed in 30 years. For a start, global heating, while it was happening back then, was just starting to impinge on the consciousness of the general public. That plus the woeful havoc to be wreaked by Howard, Costello and their deplorable Coalition successors on the economy and social fabric of Australia was still just one of any number of possible futures, one of the worst, but the one which sadly came to pass.
Re Puff @11:16. Great metaphors.
Steve
“ Oh dear, the voters are not following Newscorp’s instructions.”
Brainwashing will continue until compliance is restored.
Russia’s occupation of Ukraine is bearing more similarities to Nazism every day. Now, they are literally burning books:
“Russian forces have reportedly seized Ukrainian books from libraries and schools in the occupied eastern Luhansk and burned them in heating plants, according to the National Resistance Center, an organisation run by Ukraine’s Special Forces.
In Russian-occupied Rovenky, Ukrainian books, especially literature, are burned en masse, according to the report, which the Guardian cannot immediately verify.
Earlier, Russian proxies in occupied Luhansk were reportedly ordered to confiscate 365 editions of Ukrainian books from schools and libraries in the region, the Kyiv Independent reports.
It has been claimed Russia has made a deliberate effort to impose propaganda narratives on Ukrainian children through education in the occupied territories since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/05/russia-ukraine-war-situation-in-the-east-very-difficult-ukraines-president-says
This abhorrent cultural vandalism is a train track straight to cultural genocide. Putin, his Kremlin and their armed forces are proving themselves to be way outside the Pale of civilisation. They are outlaws on the world stage. They do not deserve any voice going forward from here.
Labour is bad for n.sw state taking money from South coast to hospital of badgery creek airport . Back to bob carr days cancelled cancelled for get about Penrith stadium. Getting rebuild. Taking money from South coast from batemanbay to bega . South coast boarder finish es at ulladulla . And voice people of aboriginal of batemanbay don’t care they never got a say this is all gone from Sydney suburbs not South coast or northern coast or central coast and blue mountains and they want to build there own parliament house. Then they want your land next . Where will it end.
Russia is also continuing to target much more precious things than books:
“Russian attacks were reported in seven out of Ukraine’s 25 regions over Feb. 4, hitting Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts with artillery and missiles.
According to the regional governors and officials, at least five civilians were killed and 12 injured, the Kyiv Independent reports.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/05/russia-ukraine-war-situation-in-the-east-very-difficult-ukraines-president-says
These Russians are truly spiteful cowards, carpeting civilian areas of Ukraine far from the battlefronts with missiles, mostly from the safety of their own territory.
More on The Guardian article about Chalmers:
“The treasurer says the overwhelmingly negative reaction to his summer think piece, published by the Monthly last month, is out of step with sentiment in the investor community and also reveals a disconnect between some opinion leaders in Australia and cutting-edge economic policy analysis overseas.”
Yeah, of course the usual pro-Coalition Neoliberal suspects have reacted negatively to Chalmers’ article. Any threat to their castle of cards represents a mortal danger to their survival… But Chalmers is articulating a new way forward for Australia, already hinted at by Wayne Swan (another Queenslander and Social Democratic innovator) when he was Treasurer and afterwards.
It’s the beginning of a new era and that, by definition, scares the Conservative-Neoliberals do death.
Encouraging polling there on the Voice.
More specifically, Chalmers said that “high inflation would be the government’s main economic focus, and his priorities in the May budget would be providing cost-of-living relief, growing the economy in a more inclusive and more sustainable way, and repairing the budget to enable more generous social policy spending, including on Medicare and aged care.”
That’s Social Democracy in action, my friends!
🙂
“Socrates says:
Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 11:34 pm
Steve
“ Oh dear, the voters are not following Newscorp’s instructions.”
Brainwashing will continue until compliance is restored.”
Hence, the De-Moronisation effort must not drop… I agree that the Neoliberals will not give up so easily, as what they have to lose is not just a “bit of prestige”…. but truly BIG bucks!
The sample size of this Newspoll is 1,512, so the margin of error is about 2.6%. The shift in primary votes is mostly statistical noise. The change in the Prime Minister’s approval rating is statistically significant, although if and how that relates to actual voting patterns is unclear. The small increase in the Opposition Leader’s approval is not significant. Albo’s drop in approval is not increasing Dutton’s.
The preferred Prime Minister results are significant or would be if they meant much.
Albo will Be happy with this poll. Dutton less so.
Another brutal Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian population centre, this time hitting a centre of higher learning:
“Five people have now been confirmed injured by a Russian missile strike on a university and residential area in downtown Kharkiv, according to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov.
The strike was carried out on the morning of Feb. 5 with two S-300 missiles, an air defense system frequently used by Russia in an inaccurate but devastating ground attack function.
One person was injured when a Russian missile hit Beketov National University of Urban Economy building, according to the regional prosecutor’s office. The university building suffered severe damage from one of the missiles.
The remaining four people were injured when the missile struck a residential area in the city, Syniehubov said in an update on Telegram.
One of the residential buildings was severely damaged, according to the report.
Russian forces launched the S-300 missiles at Kharkiv from Russia’s neighboring Belgorod Oblast, some 40 kilometers from Ukraine’s second-largest city.
The rescue operation is ongoing.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/update-5-injured-in-russian-strikes-on-kharkiv-university-severely-damaged
How come Russia gets to fire missiles at Kharkiv from within Belgorod Oblast, but Scholz insists Ukraine cannot use Western weapons to strike that very facility because it is “on Russian soil? Talk about tying Ukraine’s hands behind it’s back but then claiming to support them with “all they need”!
And Prince highway will still be same. Not finish . And blue mountains will be cancelled. Project of liberal party will last life time. Labor will never beat this . When albo open badery creek international airport 24 hours . He say he build it . In fact liberal party did and 2040worker build it . And labour party saying people don’t go to deewhy or manly or curl curl
Or palm beach labor leader is wrong . People stuck on spit bridge every day for hours you can blame state labor party if they get in Again. I hope not ok. For state
And voice voting should be fare.
“On Sunday, Chalmers characterised the backlash on the opinion pages of national newspapers as, largely, “hyperventilating from the usual suspects – some with such intensity it seemed they might spontaneously combust””…
Good sense of humour, Jim… and yes, you will definitely need it as the media will become increasingly hysterical with the publication of each negative Newspoll for the Coalition.
Jeepers that last thread was a car-crash. It was like people scientifically selecting, through much analysis, the direct vector of a gale force wind towards them, and then defiantly pissing in to it.
“Chalmers said people expecting he would be a carbon copy of Keating as treasurer was ‘as absurd as someone saying to Paul when he fronted up to the Treasury for the first time 40 years ago and saying what we need to do is a photocopy of Ben Chifley’s policies as treasurer 40 years earlier’.”
BOOOM!…
Player One says:
Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 3:57 pm
Rex Douglas @ #643 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 3:51 pm
Frednk @ #636 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 3:42 pm
Truth telling does not require a change int he constitution, just requires us to face up to our past. Pretending there was no war does not assist in that.
Precisely.
The phrase “if there was a war” is essentially a statement of denial.
Please don’t leave off the next bit “…, white Australia won it”. You need that to appreciate the full disturbing sentiment.
So completely, the war was not ended without a treaty and the need for truth telling to highlight the fact there was a war, how one sided it was and the brutality of it.
C+ plugin works on Kiwi on Android.
Samsung and my new Pixel 7.
Steve77 “The sample size of this Newspoll is 1,512, so the margin of error is about 2.6%. The shift in primary votes is mostly statistical noise. ”
If a difference is statistically significant, we can be reasonably confident it represents a difference in the thing we’re trying to measure, and in the direction so measured. But if the difference is not statistically significant, we can’t make conclusions. It might be that both Labor and the Coalition primaries did in fact decline by about the amount specified. Or it might be that it’s just statistical noise. But we won’t know that either way without further evidence. We need to look at a series – including values that haven’t been taken yet – or other polls to decide if they’ve declined.
For instance, imagine that it started out as 45, and declined by about 1 point in each of ten sequential polls. None of them was significant on their own. But the series shows a significant decline. It wasn’t correct to say, when the first one arrived, that the decline was mostly statistical noise. However, it would have been correct to say “it might be just statistical noise; but by the same token, it could be the start of a slow decline”.
So when we see a non-significant difference, the correct thing to say is “we can’t say”, not “we can say not”. And we can combine several non-significant differences into a single significant difference (which is, after all, what polling does).
Anyway, after the holidays there tends to be a bit of an ambivalent kind of result. It’s something of an anti-campaign, when people are thinking about it less than normal and answers are a little more default rather than reacting to anything in particular. I wouldn’t read a whole lot into any change – statistically significant or not – that happened between the last poll of a year and the first poll.
Aqualung @ #31 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 1:03 am
I should download the Kiwi browser as well as my normal google Chrome but I don’t want to fill my phone up with bloatware either. I’m back at home now and thankfully free again to go about things with C+ happily residing on my Brave browser and Player One nowhere to be seen. Hallelujah!
Alpo @ #22 Sunday, February 5th, 2023 – 11:44 pm
I know. I was there. 🙂
Scout at 4.43 pm Sun + Leroy at 10.24 pm and Asha at 11.42 pm
Full chart here! >
https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/67b5167d796233dbdd8d76c7fe62029e
Two points are interesting from those Voice polling figures:
1) significant gender gap: 60% of women support Voice but 53% of men;
2) No is ahead only among those born after 1957 (65+), and there are many more undecided voters among the younger age brackets, who would most probably break positively for Yes. E.g. allocating don’t knows proportionately for 50 to 64 bracket gets 57-43% to Yes; for 35 to 49 it is close to 66-34%; and for 18 to 34 it is close to 78-22%.
Combined those factors would give Yes a bit more of a margin. There are no similar breakdowns for previous referenda, but No is well behind on those figures. That is why Dutton has not jumped off the fence to go No.
He may still do so as that is his inclination, but at risk of internal division and further entrenching negative attitudes toward him in the Teal seats.
The sample is insufficient for state breakdowns but on those figures at present one would have doubts only about Qld (more oldies live there).
Report on NZ pollies on the Treaty grounds at Waitangi yesterday at:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131151089/david-seymour-shows-his-te-reo-skills-and-chris-hipkins-urges-calm-at-waitangi
See photo of Chris Hipkins leaning a bit to his left. National leader Luxon looks a wee bit elderly by comparison.
Significant point is the far right leader of ACT, the rich libertarian group, is no longer attacking Maori:
‘ACT leader David Seymour also delivered his speech in te reo Māori, saying he’d sought help from a friend to translate and learn it.
His speech centred around the ACT Party interpretation of Te Tiriti.
He called for equal opportunity, a continuation of the Treaty Claims process, and support for Māori language and culture. He also said ACT supported “tino rangatiratanga”, but only in the sense of self-autonomy under the Government.’
Politically Seymour as a libertarian is to the right of former National leader Don Brash, but he has now stopped the culture war against Maori.
What this means is there is no way for Luxon to try and surf to victory on a populist, anti-Maori wave, as Brash almost did in 2005.
Note that Hipkins, in his speech, ‘recounted “fears” of the 1990s when the Treaty Settlement process started.
“There was nothing to fear. And much of the contemporary debate, unfortunately is still characterised by a degree of uncertainty and fear. With honesty and with understanding we can overcome this,” he said.’
Steve777 says:
Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 11:18 pm
Oh dear, the voters are not following Newscorp’s instructions.
—
They haven’t for some time. Otherwise Labor wouldn’t have ever formed the current govts in Vic or Qld.
I suppose it’s possible that the Opposition might adopt an officially neutral position on the Voice, rather like same sex marriage and, to a certain extent, the Republic. Let NewsCorp, the IPA and like-minded organisations, the Nationals and individual Right-wing “Liberals” prosecute the “No” case.
Dutton is trying to have a bob each way: oppose the Voice without outright opposing the Voice by questioning the details. It’s so transparent. This way he can appeal to his numpty faction and the Nationals while still appearing reasonable to the wider public.
If public opinion on the Voice softens further then the Liberals can simply fine tune their messaging to incorporate sentiments such as ‘it won’t help Aboriginal people’ while still saying they are open to supporting the Voice but with more information.
“The situation on the frontlines in the east of the country was getting tougher and Russia was throwing more and more troops into battle”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/05/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-347-of-the-invasion
Putin couldn’t care less. For him, Russian soldiers are just cannon fodder…
“Confessions says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:00 am”
I agree, but that’s a second rate strategy. When the YES will win, Dutton can’t claim Victory, he can only claim: “I hope we survived this one…”. If that’s the signature of his “leadership”, he is obviously doomed.
So far, of the three major sides of politics: ALP, Coalition and Greens, only Labor will shine triumphantly after a YES win on referendum night.
Alpo:
If anyone is coming out of this so far looking worse for wear it’s the Greens who haven’t formed a coherent or straightforward position on the Voice. Their saving grace I guess is that their voters overwhelmingly will be voting Yes so in many ways they don’t really have to have a straightforward position.
Dawn Patrollers
I am applying for one more day’s leave. I should be OK from tomorrow.
“Price caps on Russian oil probably hit Moscow’s revenues from oil and gas exports by nearly 30% in January, or about $8bn (£7bn), compared with a year before, the International Energy Agency (IEA) chief, Fatih Birol, said on Sunday.”
So, young Russians are being slaughtered in Ukraine, massive amount of Russian money and resources are being lost in a futile war, and the economy is sinking due to significantly reduced exports….
“Well done” Vlad!… If you wanted to be remembered, I am sure that the Russian People will remember you!
A couple of Ukrainian memes to show their true feelings for Western military support:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FanIBNEWAAA36pq?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fg6Dv0HWIAIjJS7?format=jpg&name=small
https://kyivindependent.com/national/making-sense-of-ukrainian-memes-from-watermelons-to-saint-javelin
Analysis: Now the Chinese ‘spy balloon’ is down, the question is: what was it for? — Julian Borger in Washington
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/05/now-the-chinese-spy-balloon-is-down-the-question-is-what-was-it-for
Simon Benson: The Australian
Albanese will need his political capital
“Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings, while taking a hit over the summer break, are also still remarkably strong, suggesting he has abundant political capital to prosecute the Yes case.”
Benson continues in his comfort zone, the old paradigm. Despite the poll numbers, Benson compares The Voice referendum with the 1999 Republic referendum. In doing so he convinces himself that while support for the Yes vote is strong at this early stage, like the early Yes for the Republic vote, it too may still collapse. Bollocks! That was 24 years ago and as seen last year, the Coalition vote is collapsing (dying) and young voters are ignoring the Murdochracy. His comparison is apples with oranges, completely invalid. In some ways, with The Voice polling numbers being similar to last year’s election, it again makes this easier to prosecute as Old v New.
Paywalled https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpm-has-abundant-political-capital-and-will-need-it-to-get-a-yes%2Fnews-story%2F2b51ec0cf8a54e82d60f65964afe6b39&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupb-control-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append
BK – take all the leave you need. I don’t know how you do it day in day out. Get well soon.
BK says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:17 am
Dawn Patrollers
I am applying for one more day’s leave. I should be OK from tomorrow.
——————————————————————————————
Leave granted and rest up BK.
“Confessions says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:12 am
Alpo:
If anyone is coming out of this so far looking worse for wear it’s the Greens who haven’t formed a coherent or straightforward position on the Voice. Their saving grace I guess is that their voters overwhelmingly will be voting Yes so in many ways they don’t really have to have a straightforward position.”
I agree!… Whatever we may think about the Greens, it’s undeniable that they are fellow Progressives. Watching the leadership procrastinating on such an important issue, that you would expect it should have been crystal clear from day one, is truly puzzling. But I do hope that Bandt will finally listen to the majority of Greens voters (rather than an irrelevant minority of hotheads), and come on board supporting the YES option. The clock is definitely ticking, but there is still a bit of time for Bandt: C’mon Adam, wake up!