Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

A steady lead for Labor, a softening of approval for Anthony Albanese, and solid support for an Indigenous voice to parliament.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down five on approval to 57% and up four on disapproval to 33%, while Peter Dutton is steady at 36% and up one to 46%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-24 to 56-26.

There were further questions on the Indigenous voice to parliament, which found 56% in support (28% strongly and 28% partly) and 37% opposed (23% strongly and 14% partly). Extensive further detail on why respondents felt the way the did. The most favoured among listed of reasons for those opposed was that “it won’t help the issues facing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,539 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. “C@tmomma says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 4:42 am

    …I know. I was there. ”

    Hey, C@t:
    What’s your broad impression of the event?

  2. Despite the newsltd hacks dream that the honeymoon would be over for Labor/Albanese, it still a nightmare for the newsltd hacks the honeymoon is not over

  3. I just read how newscorp ( aka the Murdochcracy) is looking to shave 20 million from operating costs. I’m not sure how this new AI system works but I’d reckon if they just plugged in that the ALP is a threat to civilisation plus a bit of old religious DLP dogma they could give redundancy payments to half a dozen highly paid journos in one swoop ( some of whom are pretty long in the tooth). It would mean they could stay true to their far right wing ideology and present cut price computer generated outrage to their aging readership rather than the current high cost anti ALP ” Shanahanigans” and there would be no discernable drop in the quality. In my state of Qld the local Murdochcracy could just use a computer to switch around its repetitive,tedious,boganista, and usually unfair daily anti Palaszczuk government headlines.

  4. Tehran continues to treat Ukraine as an enemy, helping to arm Russia for the purpose of taking from Ukrainian civilians their homes, power and lives:

    “Moscow and Tehran have advanced plans to build an Iranian-designed factory in Russia that could produce more than 6,000 combat drones, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 5, citing unnamed “officials from a country aligned with the U.S.”

    According to the report, an Iranian delegation came to Russia to visit the planned site for the plant and work out the details of the deal in early January.

    “The two countries are aiming to build a faster drone that could pose new challenges for Ukrainian air defenses,” the WSJ said, citing officials.

    Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of its drones, including the kamikaze Shahed-136 models, according to Kyiv. Russia has been using these drones along with missiles to strike at critical infrastructure across Ukraine.

    As of early January, Ukraine’s air defense shot down nearly 500 Iranian-made drones launched by Russia since September, according to the Air Force.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wsj-moscow-tehran-move-forward-with-plans-to-build-iranian-designed-drone-plant-in-russia

    Assuming Israel is the country which recently bombed a weapons factory in Iran, I sincerely hope they continue the good work disrupting Iran’s weapons supplies to Russia. Given this facility being jointly developed within Russia, I further hope the Israelis disrupt the further existence of the Iranians involved, wherever they are.

  5. The Australian

    “ Voice to come before ‘truth-telling” Pat Dodson.

    “Senator Pat Dodson argues an indigenous voice to parliament must come first in order to advise the Makarrata Commission on truth telling and agreement making.”

  6. “Princeplanet says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:34 am
    I just read how newscorp ( aka the Murdochcracy) is looking to shave 20 million from operating costs….”

    And of course, they will be very selective on which journalists will go and who is going to stay. We have already seen that Murdoch got rid of Nikki Savva: a Liberal who behaved too unfriendly to Morrison. If anyone reads Savva’s latest book “Bulldozed”, you will see that there isn’t a square mm of Morrison that survives the rolling of Nikki’s heavy machinery…. I think that she was shown the Murdoch door soon after that… she now works for Costello’s Nine Corp.

  7. [Steve777says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:35 am
    The Greens really are in a mess. Adam Brandt has to read the riot act to Lydia Thorpe. If she leaves, so be it]

    I hope they do the sensible thing and allow free expression and voting.

    I wish all parties would do that to remove the hyperpartisanship and allow a result that truly represents democracy.

  8. “Steve777 says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:35 am
    The Greens really are in a mess. Adam Brandt has to read the riot act to Lydia Thorpe. If she leaves, so be it.”

    I agree, it’s now crystal clear that Thorpe should follow on the steps of Lee Rhiannon… For the greater long-term benefit of the Greens party.

  9. “Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:51 am

    I hope they do the sensible thing and allow free expression and voting.”

    Rex, nobody can compel any party member to vote in any specific way. But it’s important for the party members to know that their leadership is united behind a common purpose, as the leadership of the ALP is and even the leadership of the Nationals is (although ALP favour “Yes”, and the Nationals favour “No”).

    In the end, however, it’s possible that what you say is what Bandt will do. Will that be a great “leadership moment” for him?…. Frankly, I doubt it!

  10. “Late Riser says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:54 am
    #weatheronPB
    The air cools my flesh.
    Thin strokes brush against the sky.
    The momentum builds.”

    Now, LR, that haiku is pretty good!
    🙂

  11. ‘Cronus says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 7:45 am

    The Australian

    “ Voice to come before ‘truth-telling” Pat Dodson.

    “Senator Pat Dodson argues an indigenous voice to parliament must come first in order to advise the Makarrata Commission on truth telling and agreement making.”’
    ——————————————–
    That is far too hard for some people to understand.

  12. Another resident media wet blanket is Andrew Probyn, last night’s report on the ABC news was his typical anti-Albanese diatribe, I suggest the ABC replaces Probyn with Matt Doran as their chief Canberra correspondent in future.
    As for Lidia Thorpe, she is Adam Bandt’s problem, and he obviously has no control over her whatsoever.

  13. Cronus @ #57 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 7:45 am

    The Australian

    “ Voice to come before ‘truth-telling” Pat Dodson.

    “Senator Pat Dodson argues an indigenous voice to parliament must come first in order to advise the Makarrata Commission on truth telling and agreement making.”

    Well, whoaddathunkit? Labor Senator says Labor Party got Labor Policy right!

    Why, you could knock me over with a feather!

  14. “Evan says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:02 am
    Another resident media wet blanket is Andrew Probyn, last night’s report on the ABC news was his typical anti-Albanese diatribe”

    I agree, Probyn is fast going through his tadpole metamorphosis: From wishy-washy, to superficial, to confused, to pathetic, to propagandist anti-ALP (and by default, pro-Coalition)… I guess that he may rely on Ita’s protection. His problem is: Who is going to protect Ita?

  15. Player Onesays:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:05 am
    Cronus @ #57 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 7:45 am

    The Australian

    “ Voice to come before ‘truth-telling” Pat Dodson.

    “Senator Pat Dodson argues an indigenous voice to parliament must come first in order to advise the Makarrata Commission on truth telling and agreement making.”

    Well, whoaddathunkit? Labor Senator says Labor Party got Labor Policy right!

    Why, you could knock me over with a feather!
    _____________________
    Labor getting on with implementing the Uluru Statement. Meanwhile all the Greens and their supporters add little to the debate other than say the Voice is a waste of money and not necessary. As of 8am today the official position of the Australian Greens via their official FN spokesperson is that the Voice is a waste of money. The Greens are so far against and have a problem with the Uluru Statement .

  16. Griff

    Thanks. Interesting link.

    There is a wrinkle in the general picture. There are about 150,000 people who appear to have some difficulty discriminating between filling the farm ute for farm work and filling the farm ute for a trip to the beach.

  17. Paul Perkinssays:
    Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 11:38 pm
    Labour is bad for n.sw state taking money from South coast to hospital of badgery creek airport . Back to bob carr days cancelled cancelled for get about Penrith stadium. Getting rebuild. Taking money from South coast from batemanbay to bega . South coast boarder finish es at ulladulla . And voice people of aboriginal of batemanbay don’t care they never got a say this is all gone from Sydney suburbs not South coast or northern coast or central coast and blue mountains and they want to build there own parliament house. Then they want your land next . Where will it end.
    ____________________________________
    Hey look everyone, the Wayne/Freya bot has got ChatGPT…

  18. Alpo: you are probably correct, anybody who is a touch even handed will be quaking right now. In my opinion they are all on borrowed time, once the old bloke goes the papers will be sold. I’m pretty sure the Murdoch kids have no attachment to these newspapers or the cadre of obsequious (to RM ) pension aged curmudgeons. If it’s not making a big profit it will go.

  19. Until the leader of the party Adam Bandt declares the Greens support the Voice and explicitly encourages a “Yes” vote, we must listen to the Greens FN spokesperson. The Greens are against the Voice and support the “No” vote.

  20. The Greens have announced that this week they will announce their formal position. I predict:

    1. The Greens emphasize that Indigenous First Nations have not ceded sovereignty and that this has the complete sympathy of all Greens.
    2. The Greens want a Treaty Now! Labor is deliberately holding back from this.
    3. The Greens want more detail on the Voice Referendum but Labor is holding back.
    4. The Greens have been negotiating with the Labor Government. As a result the Greens have forced the Labor Government to do more practical stuff against the worst instincts of the Labor Party Same Old Same Old. This is still not good enough, cos Labor bad, but the Greens are the true friends of First Nations, so there!
    5. The Voice must be grassroots based and not top down. Again, Labor did not have a clue about this and thank goodness for the Greens. When it comes time to legislate the Voice, the Greens will abuse the BOP in the Senate to make sure that the Voice reflects 100% the demands of Grassroots Senator Thorpe.
    7. Despite serious serious ongoing concerns about the many failures of the Labor Government, the Greens and against the worst inclinations of the Labor Government, the Greens will sort of support the Yes case but, but, but, Treaty Now!
    8. Given the special circumstances of Bandt’s leadership embarrassment, the Greens’ Official Spokesperson on First Nations is free to continue to say what they want to, up to, and including, trying to sink what the rest of the Greens are trying to achieve.

  21. Player Onesays:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:05 am

    Cronus @ #57 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 7:45 am

    The Australian

    “ Voice to come before ‘truth-telling” Pat Dodson.

    “Senator Pat Dodson argues an indigenous voice to parliament must come first in order to advise the Makarrata Commission on truth telling and agreement making.”

    Well, whoaddathunkit? Labor Senator says Labor Party got Labor Policy right!

    Why, you could knock me over with a feather!

    Also an Aboriginal elder.

  22. On the subject of Jim Chalmers and his essay …

    There were two key messages in his “thinkpiece”:

    1. Australian political stability relies on perpetual growth.
    2. Australian perpetual growth relies on mining exports.

    But you can simplify this further. Chalmers is essentially acknowledging that Labor’s political fortunes rely on mining industry support. Or you can make it even simpler – “The Lucky Country is Back in Business, Boys!”. Or even just “ALP=BAU!”.

    The rest is verbiage designed to disguise the fact that this is as Neoliberal an economic vision as Keating could ever have dreamed of getting away with. So why so much ruckus in the media? Isn’t that exactly what they would want? Sure, but I reckon they also understand that this is Labor casually nudging their way further into territory that traditionally belongs to the Right. They expect it to be popular, but not end up going as far as they would wish.

    It’s a political strategy. It’s a clever strategy. It might even be a winning strategy. But for Labor. Not necessarily for Australia.

  23. It is very well to say we have a democracy and Thorpe can vote how she likes, but those that put a number 1 in The Greens box on the senate form reasonably expected to be voting for greens policies.

  24. For those interested in international politics, here is an extremely interesting article by Simon Tisdall published in The Guardian:
    “Turkey’s two-faced ‘sultan’ is no friend of the west. It’s time to play hardball”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/05/turkeys-two-faced-sultan-is-no-friend-of-the-west-its-time-to-play-hardball

    Quote:
    “That Turkey is a “vital strategic ally” of the west is the sort of truism on which people such as Joe Biden and Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, are raised. Yet what if the old saw no longer holds true? What if Turkey’s leader, exploiting this notion, betrays western interests in a pretence of partnership? Should not that leader be treated as a liability, a threat – even ostracised as an enemy?

    Geography doesn’t change. Turkey wields significant influence at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Yet the increasingly aggressive, authoritarian and schismatic policies pursued at home and abroad over two decades by its choleric sultan-president have upended long-cherished assumptions. Turkey’s reliability and usefulness as a trusted western ally is almost at an end.”

    I agree, Erdoğan is pushing Turkey to the brink of unreliability, as far as NATO is concerned. He must lift his game considerably. After all, there are millions of Turks (and descendants) living in Europe…. Putin is dreaming of emulating the old tzars, and he is paying big time for that mistake. If Erdoğan is dreaming about becoming a second Suleiman the Magnificent, he will only achieve following Putin down the same road to oblivion.

  25. Player One @ Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:29 am

    “Isn’t that exactly what they would want? Sure, but I reckon they also understand that this is Labor casually nudging their way further into territory that traditionally belongs to the Right. They expect it to be popular, but not end up going as far as they would wish.”

    Illogical mess.

    Carry on! 🙂

  26. “Player One says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:29 am
    On the subject of Jim Chalmers and his essay …

    There were two key messages in his “thinkpiece”:

    1. Australian political stability relies on perpetual growth.
    2. Australian perpetual growth relies on mining exports.”

    No, those weren’t “key messages”… those weren’t even “messages”.
    Lying usually grows the liar’s nose, as we all know …. In the case of Pooh1, there is something strange, long and stinky coming out from his lower back each time he lies, which is just about each time he writes…..

  27. Torchbearer @ #82 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 8:34 am

    It is very well to say we have a democracy and Thorpe can vote how she likes, but those that put a number 1 in The Greens box on the senate form reasonably expected to be voting for greens policies.

    I would expect you would find that most Green voters are more in touch with the Green policy platform than the voters of either major party are with their own.

    And they don’t even have to go far to find out the details – as we see here on a daily basis, Labor Partisans are far more obsessed with the Green policies than they are with their own. Possibly with good reason – if you took away the party branding and the excess verbiage and just left in the policy mechanics, even Labor party members would be hard-pressed to separate many of their own key party policies from the Liberals.

  28. The trend away from the Liberal Party is set in stone at the Federal and State levels.

    The trend has been coming for a long time. It began before 2007.

    The trend looks ominous for the Perrottet government despite the seemingly hefty margins to protect their numbers in the NSW lower house.

    The Federal, State and local governments have been run like poker machines for a long time, dragging money from wherever, especially from the least well-off and dispersing the winnings to the select minority with ever increasing dollops of largesse to maintain ones control of the machine.

    Successful politicians are required to be equipped with a special screwdriver enabling the manipulation of these massive political poker machines also called governments.

    The political favours in NSW are being suitably oiled with the magical potion and screwdriver manipulation as we near the election.

    I was reading the local newspaper reports in one central west town, with photos, as the tennis club are to receive new lights, the NRL oval to receive a new bar and the Rugby club to receive new change rooms. Only the Netball, the bowling and Golf clubs to be presented with their giant cheques this week.

    The incumbent NSW Government must be worried. They have only been in power since 2011 !

    The only really worrying trend in both the States and Federal sphere is how long does it take the voters to realize they’ve been saddled with third world style governments for some time yet enough voters maintain an insurance that the screwdriver operators from the Liberal Party remain with some biggish machine payouts, of forming government.

    Morrison as PM was a crook. Morrison’s lackeys were crooks, the GG looks dodgy, and the Murdoch press do their bit.

    The majority of Australians think the Voice is either a TV show or Johnny Farnham !

    The Robodebt Royal Commission is hardly a viewing success, not worthy of reporting about in the only National daily dead tree press !

    The trends, clearly visible for these bothering to look are obvious.

    But who’s bothering, in a country with the only relative necessary skill is feeding a poker machines with the help of a magical screwdriver and away ya go.

  29. Just so everyone knows, I will be taking William’s request seriously and not be engaging with some of the more idiotic posters determined to carry yesterday’s pile-on over to today’s blog.

  30. “Player One says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:43 am
    Just so everyone knows, I will be taking William’s request seriously and not be engaging with some of the more idiotic posters determined to carry yesterday’s pile-on over to today’s blog.”

    If you are taking William’s request seriously, why are you writing posts here?

  31. Monday mornings, eh?

    The Voice still dominates discussion.

    Dutton is from Queensland. He is (L)NP. The NP is promoting NO. Dutton wants to support NO, and will. But first a bit of political theatre has to finish playing out. The narrative being cultivated is that after many attempts to get Albanese and the Labor Party to understand that what is being proposed is immature, untested, uncertain, even dangerous in its lack of detail, and that therefore Dutton must reluctantly reject the proposal as unworkable.

    As for Bandt, he’s done. Referenda are binary choices. YES or NO, and the default is NO. The Greens as a party support NO. That failure is down to Bandt.

    (And thanks Alpo. Some callisthenics are more rewarding than others.)

  32. “goll says:
    Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:42 am
    The trend away from the Liberal Party is set in stone at the Federal and State levels.”

    I agree, it’s a strong trend, and the next appointment with destiny for the Coalition is the coming NSW state election. If they lose NSW, the Liberal party is going to be shaken by a grade 8 magnitude earthquake! … After that, it will be up to future political-archaeologists to dig up what’s left under the rabbles, to study the reasons why that old “civilisation” disappeared.

  33. There’s a clear disparity between the way lawyers & doctors are
    disciplined, the former far more likely to be struck off the rolls; the latter, receiving more lenient treatment, such as a period of suspension. I hope tonight’s Four Corners will speak to this.

    Take, for instance, the case Dr Jamnagarwalla, who was found to have committed “inappropriate behaviour of a sexual nature”. He breached restrictions on 33 occasions, and it took twelve years to resolve, yet he can apply for reinstatement next year. By contrast, where a lawyer, say, misuses his/her trust account they are more often than not struck off the rolls – permanently! (For the record, if GG & BB are lurking, I have a clean record, still on the rolls of the Supreme Court of Queensland, & the High Court).

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-06/doctors-sexual-misconduct-complaint-system-investigation/101918606

  34. If the Liberals do get exterminated in NSW, rather than just have to share power with the cross bench, then I wonder if we might see a truly unique phenomenon in Australia – a “race back to the middle” where both major parties decide to lurch to the left, to actually represent the electorate?

    Wouldn’t that be one for the history books?

  35. I think YES would get many more votes without party backing than with.

    Party political point scoring doesn’t belong in this referendum debate.

  36. @ Griff835am
    Gotta agree with you there.
    P1 is capable of strong debate and cogent replies, but this morning appears to be all over the place.
    Seems to be falling back onto dogmatic responses. Has this first Newspoll discombobulated her thinking or hopes?

  37. The weather balloon is a weird one.
    If it’s a weather balloon which would normally self deflate, why didn’t it?
    Why didn’t the Chinese trigger a self deflation mechanism ?
    Why would the Chinese use such old tech when they have satellites for spying ?
    Seems more of a political thing to see how the yanks would respond.

  38. I note that there will be a church service today to mark the opening of Federal Parliament.

    Why do we still do this, are not Australian’s secular enough to let this kind of thing go? Unlike in America were even atheists seem to need to profess their belief in the Christian god to run for office, I hope that this nation is a lot more comfortable about this.

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