Roy Morgan’s weekly update reveals that its latest voting intention figures have Labor’s two-party lead out from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but does not treat us to primary vote numbers on this occasion. If I’m reading the blurry fine print correctly, the polling was conducted from August 8 to 14. Assuming Newspoll has resumed its previously established schedule of a poll of every three weeks, that should be along with us on Sunday evening.
Also of note:
• An article in Crikey last week provided details from YouGov’s Co-operative Election Survey panel survey, conducting during the campaign from May 2 to 18 from a sample of 5978. It indicates that the cohorts most likely to defect to Labor were the well educated, those with few assets, those identifying as having no religion, and those from non-English backgrounds. Also featured were those aged 18 to 34, although this cohort was the most volatile across the board – the voters least likely to defect from Labor were the oldest. Similarly, high income earners were both more likely to those on low and middle incomes both to defect to and from Labor.
• Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald explores the impact of young inner-city renters on the Morrison government’s defeat. Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group is quoted saying such voters are keen to get into the property market but “do not want to relocate to the outskirts of western Sydney or Melbourne”, and have “really looked down on conservative politicians mocking them on their lifestyle choices”. Such voters were attracted to the teal independents over Labor because they favour “a modern solution to their hunger for a different form of politics”, and over the Greens because of their “positions on housing and development at a local level, where ‘not in my backyard’ attitudes constrain supply”. The latter is particularly an issue at state level, to which the New South Wales government has responded by providing the option to pay annual land tax instead of upfront stamp duty and unveiling a plan for 4500 new homes around a railway station in Hornsby.
• The by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, vacated by the retirement of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner, will be held tomorrow. Labor’s Brent Potter will defend a 9.6% margin against Country Liberal Party candidate Ben Hosking and four others.
C@tmomma @ Friday, August 19, 2022 at 8:56 am
“Has the Inquiry concluded? Don’t they usually do the sacking after the Inquiry has wound up?”
There are many ways one can depart, be they voluntarily or involuntarily. With ICAC yet to come…
More BK files.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/18/liz-cheneys-defeat-nature-of-trumpism
This was predicted immediatley after the first impeachement and firmed to a near certainty after the second. And there’s no need to use this outcome to tar the GOP with the word “cult”, deserved though it is. Any strong group expels those who do not fit. Arguably it’s a law of the commerce and politics. It was drummed into me, explicitly, over the course of my working life. What remains to be seen is whether the USA as a whole qualifies as a strong and manages to expel the GOP. Parasites can be hard to dislodge.
They just keep on coming.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=610793407079164&set=a.330040181821156
Anothery
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=2229322570554829&set=gm.757750458626296
Socrates, Friday, August 19th, 2022 – 8:04 am
Wow. Lead was taken out years ago. What else is there that our engines need to run well?
Late Riser @ #52 Friday, August 19th, 2022 – 9:09 am
As Tom Nichols observed yesterday in a podcast I listened to, the rise of the cult around Trump and other Populist Demagogic Authoritarian national leaders has come about because we no longer have to spend our days tilling the soil and managing herds like we used to do in order to survive. Now we have all that provided for us at the shops and we instead spend our days in front of screens, absorbing the propaganda and slipping down frictionless rabbit holes. The 2 greatest developments of the last 75 years, peace after WW2, and the creation of the computer and social media, have instead tilled the soil for the crazy. And those wishing to take advantage of it in order to accumulate power.
Late Riser @ #55 Friday, August 19th, 2022 – 9:16 am
Diesel needs special additives. Ukraine used to be the biggest global manufacturer of them until the war, hence the high price of Diesel cf ordinary petrol. Though, and I’m not sure about this, Morrison got Incitec Pivot to begin to manufacture it in Australia. Still, prices remain high so I’m not sure how that’s working itself out..
LR
The use of statues and paintings and visages on coins was exploited by ancient despots: there were an estimate 20,000 status of Augustus during his reign.
The invention of the printing press and the widespread dissemination of the Bible created the revolutionary disturbances among christians.
The rise of newspapers, ditto among the general populations of many states.
Radio enabled peeps like Hitler.
Television enabled peeps like McCarthy.
Fax machines enabled samizdat – regarded by some as a key factor in the fall of the USSR.
Social media enabled peeps like Trump, Johns, Morrison and Xi.
It seems as if the first generation or two that have to assimilate new forms of communications have political and personal difficulty doing so. Each new technology is eagerly exploited by demagogues and populists.
IMO, while there are significantly different aspects about social media, we have been in this sort of landscape many times before.
Thanks c@tmomma. We looked into buying a diesel engine car when we returned to Oz but thankfully/sensibly didn’t. I hadn’t thought of all the commercial vehicles. Hmm.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 8:52 am.
Thank goodness for The Saturday Paper. They have been a worthwhile addition to the Australian media landscape.
——————————————-
As is yourself on PB 7 days a week!
Good point BW. I guess there’s a pendulum in every system if you step back far enough. The question arises then how much damage was allowed before enough people pushed back, and if there’s a pattern in how they did that. (It was c@t who posted about the “socials”.)
Thoughts on new communication media.
* How long does it take for new forms of communication to fracture into a multitude of voices, thereby diluting the power of the first voices?
* How is that fracturing typically resisted?
* How long until the multitude of voices become the norm and bind rather than fracture its society?
From GG thread:
”
Alposays:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 8:50 am
“Socrates says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 7:36 am
…This incident is also further proof that “relying on conventions” is not good enough in an era of cynical machine politics. The rules need to be written and unambiguous.”
I hope that’s exactly the message that the democratic side of parliament (which I am confident is the majority) takes on board. Assuming that unwritten conventions will be always respected in a honourable way by all leaders, just doesn’t work in the era of Morrison, Trump, Johnson, etc.
”
It is terrifying isn’t it that AUKUS people are falling for ‘leaders’ like Morrison, Trump, Johnson and there was a confluence of those ‘leaders’ during Pandemic.
Imagine if AUKUS countries were in a war, which happened quite a few times in this century, and Morrison, Trump, Johnson were ‘leaders’at that time.
There would be absolute tragic and terrifying consequences all-around.
The one thing Morrison, Trump, Johnson have is gift of gab.
They would have misled the people without a second thought with possible horrible consequences.
The chance that we can have leaders like Morrison, Trump, Johnson in future but who are much more smart in their political operations is a very unnerving thought.
Ven
That’s a thought that has troubled a lot of people recently. Though maybe it’s just that it’s been troubling me, and my cognitive bias steered my attention toward them. However, with the extreme example of Trump I’ve come to the conclusion that there is only one Trump. There are imitators but none quite like him in all respects. And that gives me hope.
Dr John @ #60 Friday, August 19th, 2022 – 9:32 am
😳 You’re too kind.
An interesting sidebar, Ven. Do you think Modi has the gift of the gab?
waiting for Taylormade to make the daily lol comment
UK Cartoons:
Morrison can’t get another gig but is obviously holding out in Cook, pressuring the conservative machine to deliver him a job as the price for getting rid of him.
Whilst there may be a lot of political pain suffered through a Cook by-election, it would be less and shorter pain than the damage Morrison would sustain by him hanging on as the member for Cook.
Socrates at 7.41 am
“The rules need to be written and unambiguous.” Indeed, so said Gough in The Truth of the Matter, in 1979. So says Pope in his cartoon today. So, where has all the effort gone? Perhaps the Republicans have been focused only on superficial symbolism (nationality of HoS) instead of substance (powers of HoS)?
Thanks so much BK.
Socrates
“ This incident is also further proof that “relying on conventions” is not good enough in an era of cynical machine politics. The rules need to be written and unambiguous. Even the UK, where most of our constitutional practice descends from, has commenced writing down all those conventions and making them binding. The UK Constitution is not codified as a single document, but it is now mostly written.”
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/explainers/what-uk-constitution
There has never been a better time to enshrine the principles as law. It looks likely to get bipartisan support. It would be a signature reform to achieve under Albo’s prime ministership.”
+1, it just makes sense and now that we’ve had a warning of what a megalomaniac might do it’s incumbent of the new government to do its best to prevent it occurring again.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alaska-wyoming-election-cheney/
This should feel happily familiar to an Australian voter. But I wonder how the Alaskans are taking it. With Begich-R on 29% versus Palin-R on 32% (and Peltola-D on 38%) it’s going to come down to two things.
* Who of Palin or Begich will be eliminated?
* Who of Peltola or Begich will their preferences assist most?
FiveThiryEight say that if Begich is eliminated his preferences will likely split evenly between Palin and Peltola, giving Peltola, say, another 14% to get to 52%. However, if Palin ends up third then her preferences will largely flow to Begich, giving him the win.
So it looks like Palin is out, and paradoxically if there are enough Palin voters that may end up giving it to Peltola (courtesy of Begich). Alaskans will be thinking about that.
Socrates says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 7:54 am
Nath
“Gazetting Ministerial appointments is normal practice. Hurley has a staff who would liaise with those who write the gazette on a regular basis. The gazette may be updated as often as weekly. They surely would have known about the secrecy.
If Morrison instructed Hurley to keep it secret, that is not Hurley’s fault, but he needs to say so. Hurley’s current explanation is not sufficient to absolve him of fault.”
The fact that after Hurley’s (and also Morrison’s) explanations, we and many others are still asking entirely reasonable questions is proof enough that the answers are entirely inadequate. Continued equivocating is not helping and only adds to the impression of secrecy and questionable intentions.
yabba at 10.10 am
The significance of a reference depends on the credibility of the referee. Of the six referees listed, one (President Macron) has good credibility (though less so in France), one has moderate credibility (Ms Banks, for telling the truth about some things, though not about Jobseeker rate etc). The others have character deficits of various kinds and degrees. However, a much better referee said it all evocatively a year and two weeks ago. See this comment from Penny Wong on 5 Aug 2021. Will the media replay it?
https://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/1423157464799662080 (Penny Wong on ProMo, in Senate)
The next time a minister goes on leave and another minister is appointed to cover for him/her, do we expect the GG and his staff to check that the changes have been put into the Administrative Orders?
I think some people are eager to get rid of the GG because he was chosen by Morrison.
I recall that some wanted him gone in May because he didn’t smile enough when swearing in Albo.
nath
It’s not just Bludgers who are calling for Hurley to go….for that matter, it’s not just Labor supporters.
Dr Doolittle @ #75 Friday, August 19th, 2022 – 10:30 am
Thanks for the reminder. I retweeted it for all of my zero followers.
Nath is a self appointed ‘contradictor’ one this blog. That’s why the management indulge him, as some sort of counterbalance to the ‘Labor hive mind’.
The only problem with that is … nath is a piss poor contradictor.
”
Crowe concludes his examination of Morrison’s actions by saying, “The strange thing is that Morrison seemed to think nobody would ever discover his five secret portfolios but, all along, he had set the clock ticking on a bomb beneath his own legacy.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-weird-science-of-our-secret-saviour-scott-morrison-20220818-p5baso.html
”
BT
Maybe Morrison thought he would win May federal election in another miracle ( which mundo was confident would happen:-) ) and nobody would be any wiser.
The nation’s democracy dodged a dictatorship bullet. Maybe people of this country are releasing a sigh of relief now or maybe the people care rat’s backside.
”
The former prime minister’s defence of backing up the health and finance ministers doesn’t pass muster. And ghosting Treasury, Home Affairs and Resources was just plain abuse, writes Coorey who says the secret ministerial deeds are trashing Scott Morrison’s legacy. (Maybe one day he will tell us what that legacy is).
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/secret-ministerial-deeds-trash-morrison-s-legacy-20220817-p5baia
”
What legacy?
Even Morrison was on record saying he is not into any legacy.
ItzaDream
“The above are two “coincidences” which may not have any relationship to Morrison’s self appointment to those two ministerial positions. Effectively we see an event which is not what Morrison wants, he gets secretly appointed and then magically things come out just as Scott envisioned they would.”
Yes I’m afraid that even with just the evidence available so far that I find it very hard to believe these were coincidences. The level of planning and secrecy alone suggests otherwise but the timings are likely proof of skullduggery.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 10:36 am
Nath is a self appointed ‘contradictor’ one this blog. That’s why the management indulge him, as some sort of counterbalance to the ‘Labor hive mind’.
The only problem with that is … nath is a piss poor contradictor.
__________
I call it as I see it. I think I’ve raised some reasonable points about what the GG and his staff are expected or not expected to do.
If it is common practice for the GG and his staff to monitor changes in the Administrative Orders then something else is going on here. If not, then Morrison is the only person responsible for what has occurred.
I perceive that Nath calls it as he wishes it to be, not as it is.
Vensays:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 10:36 am
But it seems Morrison dobbed himself in by disclosing all this to the authors.
None of this would be publicly known or an issue now if the book wasn’t about to come out.
Morrison proved himself the ultimate deadshit, as PM, as a politician, as a liberal party president, as a liberal party member, as a tourism guru, as a curry chef and now as a defeated PM.
Hurley, Morrison ex-mate, is a GG”s boot strap at best.
So why has it taken so long to condemn the deadshit ?
Perhaps it’s all too difficult to say “we was wronged by a complete deadshit”.
The Shire may find Morrison privatised their shit and they’re going back to the pan.
“Deadshits are us”
nath
Apparently the rest of the known world disagrees with you, but hey.
“But it seems Morrison dobbed himself in by disclosing all this to the authors.”
This means he probably intended to reveal it when his book was published. Maybe he was expecting that his cunning plan to be hailed as a stroke of genius.
Aaron newton says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 8:24 am
“I also agree that acspecting military leaders to guard our constatution given that they come from a structure where you never question any order given reguardlis of its merit are the worst choice to protect democrasy a lawyer or x mp would be better i think juley bishop would be a good gg”
IMHO and from my experience, I think there is a broad misunderstanding about the willingness of military leaders to challenge directives, particularly questionable ones. Certainly there are some who would fall into the military moron category but there are also those who wouldn’t, just as in all professions. Military officers are very well versed in the difference between lawful and unlawful orders for example. The problem in this Case I believe lays with the individual, Hurley, and I suspect it has more to do with his professional/personal contacts and values and perhaps even his political beliefs.
zoomster says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 10:54 am
nath
Apparently the rest of the known world disagrees with you, but hey.
_______
Well the GG statement did say that he ‘had no reason to believe that appointments would not be communicated’
While Albo has said “I have no intention of undertaking any criticism of the governor general. The governor general acted in accordance with the recommendations of the government”
Surely every poster who frequents this admirable blog can realise that the ‘nath’ thing is a bad-faith actor. Nothing that it posts is ever sincere. Its structured garbage is all fabricated to try to get under the skin of the sincere, reflective posters, for its own perverse amusement.
Ignore it, and your life will be improved, and its will be reduced further to the pointless shit spraying that it always was.
ar’s block feature was especially programmed to deal with the naths of this world.
”
Socratessays:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 8:49 am
GG
Thanks for the excellent roundup. Some thoughtful pieces today.
I still look forward to the results of Albo’s inquiry with the SG. As I documented in my own post above, you can’t get appointed a minister by accident, nor does the gazettal process get stopped by accident. Morrison or his staff must have issued deliberate instructions to cause that not to happen. People knew.
Which brings us back to the still unanswered question – why? As per Itza Dream’s post at 8.05am, when you look at timing, there are several potential instances where Morrison might have used these powers to advance personal agendas. We still need to get to the bottom of that.
Another person who has been conspicuously quiet on this whole saga is Alex Hawke. I have to wonder if he is involved? The silence is deafening.
”
Socrates
Morrison is on record saying that he kept ‘Secret Morrison business ‘ secret because he did not want his colleagues to misinterpret him about these appointments. So he deliberately kept them secret. Only GG can clarify whether Morrison told him to keep it secret.
yabba says:
ar’s block feature was especially programmed to deal with the naths of this world.
_____
Perhaps I should go elsewhere. I will think on it.
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 8:52 am
You know, I used to think that The Saturday Paper would never have enough to write about every week that hadn’t already been written about in the rest of the media the week prior. Boy was I wrong! They have so much to go to that other media won’t touch, or don’t get the time to go into deeply. Thank goodness for The Saturday Paper. They have been a worthwhile addition to the Australian media landscape.
”
Even the MSM is doing a triple summersault with pike now when it comes to Morrison behaviour.
They are behaving as if they are stunned with the current turn of events.
Boerwar says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 8:52 am
Thank you, BK.
“I can’t recall Labor promising either to leave national fuel standards as they are, or to fix national fuel standards – so this is an open policy area and one that is not factored into Labor’s promise of 43/2030. In effect this will be one of several initiatives that were not factored into 43/2030 and which may well lift the outcome well above 43/2030.
It is just as well that Albanese finally negated the decade long curse of the Dutton/Bandt climate wedge!”
On the basis of what we’ve seen so far, I’m confident Bowen will initiate these standards if only for one reason, they simply make sense. The advantages are multitudinous and of benefit to all.
Cronus says:
Friday, August 19, 2022 at 10:42 am
ItzaDream
“The above are two “coincidences” which may not have any relationship to Morrison’s self appointment to those two ministerial positions. Effectively we see an event which is not what Morrison wants, he gets secretly appointed and then magically things come out just as Scott envisioned they would.”
Yes I’m afraid that even with just the evidence available so far that I find it very hard to believe these were coincidences. The level of planning and secrecy alone suggests otherwise but the timings are likely proof of skullduggery.
_____________________________________
My theory is that he got himself appointed to these Ministries like a crooked gambler secreting an ace up his sleeve before a critical deal.
The first event (Health) was straightforward, made sense in the context of the pandemic and Hunt knew. But a devious mind, like Morrison’s, realised that the ability for him to be appointed to Ministries secretly could be used when all his other powers of persuasion could not move a Minister wanting to do something that he didn’t want.
As Itza has very helpfully pointed out, the otherwise haphazard timing of these appointments makes sense when they are seen in close proximity to a Minister making a highly political decision. The fact that the power was only exercised once – overturning the Pitt decision – means that he was able to achieve his wishes through other means, probably coercive heavy-handed bullying in the style he was very well-known for.
I can quite believe that the relevant Ministers did not know. If he was going to tell them it would only be in the context of actually exercising the power, not threatening to. So, for example, he was able to make sure that Karen Andrews did not free the Biloela family by other means and had no need to play the ace up his sleeve.
What a revolting human being. Julia Banks’s analysis of his way of acting was dead right. And Grace Tame was absolutely spot on for treating this pathetic piece of rubbish the way she did at the Australia Day reception. The usual suspects who excoriated her for it should hang their heads in shame. A Prime Minister who utterly dishonours his office like he did does not have any right to expect that office to be honoured while he occupies it.
Edited to add that I can even believe that Morrison forgot these self-appointments. Like forgetting you have an ace up your sleeve if you’ve won the hand.
Cronus @ #89 Friday, August 19th, 2022 – 10:58 am
So the Brereton report is a load of nonsense, then? I suspect that your own background may, just possibly, colour your perceptions.
https://afghanistaninquiry.defence.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-11/IGADF-Afghanistan-Inquiry-Public-Release-Version.pdf
Late Riser
I too have noticed an increasing prevalence of health hubs with pathology, GPs, dental, x-ray and imaging, physiotherapy and more in shopping precincts which just makes so much sense. The linking of these such that numerous specialists understand the broader patient history would (privacy allowing) only improve the service to individuals.
nath
The person defending themselves comes out with a justification for their actions, and you just accept that?
I didn’t think you were that naive.
TPOF:
Spot on.