More Roy Morgan and post-federal election research (open thread)

One of only two pollsters currently in the federal game continues to show Labor with a more modest lead than Newspoll.

Roy Morgan’s weekly update reveals that its latest voting intention figures have Labor’s two-party lead out from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but does not treat us to primary vote numbers on this occasion. If I’m reading the blurry fine print correctly, the polling was conducted from August 8 to 14. Assuming Newspoll has resumed its previously established schedule of a poll of every three weeks, that should be along with us on Sunday evening.

Also of note:

• An article in Crikey last week provided details from YouGov’s Co-operative Election Survey panel survey, conducting during the campaign from May 2 to 18 from a sample of 5978. It indicates that the cohorts most likely to defect to Labor were the well educated, those with few assets, those identifying as having no religion, and those from non-English backgrounds. Also featured were those aged 18 to 34, although this cohort was the most volatile across the board – the voters least likely to defect from Labor were the oldest. Similarly, high income earners were both more likely to those on low and middle incomes both to defect to and from Labor.

Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald explores the impact of young inner-city renters on the Morrison government’s defeat. Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group is quoted saying such voters are keen to get into the property market but “do not want to relocate to the outskirts of western Sydney or Melbourne”, and have “really looked down on conservative politicians mocking them on their lifestyle choices”. Such voters were attracted to the teal independents over Labor because they favour “a modern solution to their hunger for a different form of politics”, and over the Greens because of their “positions on housing and development at a local level, where ‘not in my backyard’ attitudes constrain supply”. The latter is particularly an issue at state level, to which the New South Wales government has responded by providing the option to pay annual land tax instead of upfront stamp duty and unveiling a plan for 4500 new homes around a railway station in Hornsby.

• The by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, vacated by the retirement of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner, will be held tomorrow. Labor’s Brent Potter will defend a 9.6% margin against Country Liberal Party candidate Ben Hosking and four others.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,297 comments on “More Roy Morgan and post-federal election research (open thread)”

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  1. Nath @ 7.08 here’s one of my favourites just for starters.

    WTF in 2022 are we still giving such massive tax concessions for carbon pollution by miners and farmers (main beneficiaries) who by the way are making an absolute mozza right now.

    To understand how perverse this is, you should visit Groote Eylandt as I did recently. The miner is very community minded. They are the only fuel provider on the island and very generously onsell fuel to the public – mostly traditional owners and their own employees.

    At rebated prices!

    At the time diesel was 2.30 in Sydney. 1.65 on Groote. Currently diesel also powers all the islands electricity and there are no plans to invest in renewables despite abundant sunshine and a manageable base load for battery coverage at night, perhaps excluding the mine itself. Cos the business case isn’t there at rebated diesel prices!

  2. Big big swing to Labor in Queensland. Let’s hope it holds until the next election 🙂 …. swag of seats to come. Albo 53% and Dutton 19% Upnorth

  3. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, August 22, 2022 at 8:29 pm

    Where is Lars von Tryhard calling for the orderly wind up of the Liberal Party?

    Or a Truth and Reconciliation Commission into the Morrison Bastardry ™ ?

    Can a Phoenix rise from the ashes of this massive rejection by the Australian people? As Bob Hawke used to say; “The Australian people never get it wrong.”
    Not to forget Taylormade and Steelydan – what!!!

  4. So all the faults which plague the Liberal Party are down to the sneaky Morrison, with whom the Liberal Party has now cut ties

    So Liberals have got their Party back

    Except the transition of the Liberal Party to what we see today dates from the ascension of Howard who, as we are reminded daily, is still in control

    Supported by who he is supported by

    We will see if “it is all Morrison’s fault” washes with the Australian electorate

  5. Asked about Albanese, 61 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 22 per cent said he was doing a poor job, resulting in a net performance rating of 39 points. This was a significant improvement on his net rating of minus 8 points in the Resolve survey in the week before polling day.

    Asked about Dutton, 30 per cent said he was doing a good job and 38 per cent said he was doing a poor job, producing a net rating of minus 8 points. This was in line with the net rating for Morrison just before the election, which was minus 7 points, but voters held stronger views on the former prime minister because of the prominence of his position. While only 7 per cent of voters were undecided about Morrison, 32 per cent are undecided about Dutton.

  6. There would never be a more opportune time to overturn the tax breaks for the relatively rich, who would mostly vote Tory in any event. Now that Labor has the edge, do it, Chalmers! London to a brick, he’s writing his October speech now.

  7. GoldenSmaug says:
    Monday, August 22, 2022 at 3:18 pm

    What I do want Labor to do is increase company taxes and reduce other tax rorts to more than make up the difference.

    100%, nothing wrong with the stage 3 tax cuts as long as it is part of much needed tax reform.

  8. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1186 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 7:08 pm

    It is inevitable that we are in for at least 1,000 days of repeat, bad faith, bullshit posted by these roosters until the next election. I’ve copied your brilliant post to paste in riposte whenever I detect a repeat performance (probably not actually because THAT would itself clog up the blog. But occasionally, as a reminder) because the “hive mind” needs to stick together.

    Sure. Post it as many times as you need. Much easier than actually thinking for yourself.

  9. Socrates:

    Yes Morrison will surely go down in history as one of our least well remembered PMs. I cannot describe him as anything other than an untrustworthy liar, who himself trusted no-one else. A deeply flawed character.

    Oh, no, I think Morrison will be remembered… as the worst PM we’ve ever had.

  10. Asha says:
    Monday, August 22, 2022 at 9:54 pm


    Yes Morrison will surely go down in history as one of our least well remembered PMs. I cannot describe him as anything other than an untrustworthy liar, who himself trusted no-one else. A deeply flawed character.

    Oh, no, I think Morrison will be remembered… as the worst PM we’ve ever had.

    I second that motion comrade.

  11. “So Liberals have got their Party back ”

    Hmmmmm…..i wouldn’t go so far as to suggest that right now. 🙂

    I think the Teals thing has a ways to run yet.

  12. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, August 22, 2022 at 9:57 pm

    Abbott is probably very pleased with the turn of events with Morrison.

    Turnbull will be grinning like The Cheshire Cat

  13. Oh, no, I think Morrison will be remembered… as the worst PM we’ve ever had.
    And for me I consider that’s being kind!

  14. I’m surprised the Greens haven’t come out in support of Morrison.

    After all they think they should be able to subvert our democracy and impose their will despite not having the required mandate.

  15. Barney in Cherating says:
    Monday, August 22, 2022 at 10:20 pm
    I’m surprised the Greens haven’t come out in support of Morrison.

    After all they think they should be able to subvert our democracy and impose their will despite not having the required mandate.

    If he had a hyphenated name there would be half a chance cobber.

  16. Asher

    “ Oh, no, I think Morrison will be remembered… as the worst PM we’ve ever had.”

    Yes I’d agree with that too. I was too young to be aware of Gorton and McMahon, but Morrison was certainly the worst in my lifetime.

  17. I understand and support the ALP’s desire and need to rebuild trust with the electorate in keeping their word on the stage 3 tax cuts – and if they stick to that I’m ok with that even though the stage 3 cuts are terrible; the ALP have plenty of fish they need to concentrate on frying – entrenching climate change action, fixing aged care, Medicare, NDIS, education/training, getting the Voice to Parliament up. If they achieve stuff in these areas I think they will have done well even without shifting on anything else.

    Having said that, I do think there is an opportunity to restructure the stage 3 tax cuts. I think, provided that everyone still gets some tax cut, that reworking the stage 3 cuts to focus on lower income earners could be sold and could get support. Some have floated the idea of bringing rejigged stage 3 cuts forward to give the government a narrative about cost-of-living relief while moderating the long term budgetary impact, and I can see that as a workable possibility.

    What Chalmers brings down in his budget in October will be fascinating.

  18. Re Stage 3,
    I think they will get the chop, but a narrative needs to be built around changing circumstances. I’m sure that the ALP are thrilled with scomo, because when Chalmers hands down the budget he’ll be able to discuss reform with the frame around the last 10 wasted years.

    Still hanging out for that royal commission into the NBN. I fear the ALP will not be brutal in their exercise of power. Appeasement always leads to future problems. Just like when the North won against the south in the US civil war. After the war, they just let the generals of the south go, and they went on to create the problems of today with they mythos.

  19. Hawke is with Chicka Ferguson, Canberra’s Winger, in the dressing room after they had won the 1989 grand final.

    There’s three legends in that photograph – Chicka, Hawkey and a carton of Raiders Lime!

  20. A disclaimer noting that ministers may be sworn to administer other portfolios without it being shown on the official parliamentary list was added just days after Scott Morrison took over as prime minister in 2018.

    Me: So he was doing a heist in broad daylight but nobody picked it up.
    He was robbing us blind with a sleight of hand and the media was marvelling at his magic rather than catching him

  21. Ven
    “He was robbing us blind with a sleight of hand and the media was marvelling at his magic rather than catching him”

    Oh yes, The Media!
    Even after the “tip of the iceberg” is being exposed after the drought of transparency, so many of “the media” are showing a reluctance to confess, own up and be contrite!
    What a pathetic mob of “hanger onners” and “sellers of spine” they remain.
    There is so much more to be laid bare!

  22. I would have thought the obvious thing to do with the “Stage 3 tax cuts” is to point out that the situation has changed, they would be highly inflationary, therefore they are being delayed for {1,2,3} years until the time is ripe. Not cancelled, just postponed…

  23. I don’t know, caf.

    They could just say, we keep our promises, but we will have to tighten our belts elsewhere. You lot up there, claiming >$120k in franking credits, how about we hold onto some of that?

  24. Dandy Murray-Honeydew,
    You’renot wrong about choosing a different fight, maybe with the member for goldstein retired it’d be a good opportunity to revisit the franking credit changes. But it’d need to havea HIGH cap. my very old mum makes about 2-3K a year on that and it’s part of the way she survives pension free. It’d be a shame if the ALP bit the hand the elected it.

  25. I can believe this and it makes sense. The problem is, getting kids to listen:

    People’s poor understanding of statistics resulted in misinformation and “fake news” spreading throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers say, as a study calls for changes to how mathematics is taught in schools.

    The research, published in the journal Educational Studies in Mathematics, identified nine different ways mathematics and statistics have been used in the media during the pandemic, analysing examples from four different countries.

    They included models, predictions, causality and risk, representations and displays, data quality and strength of evidence.

    The study found that educational programs needed to go beyond simple and abstract notions of probability to evaluate the meaning and strength of data.

    “Within school mathematics curricula, statistics are often taught as a separate topic from mathematics, yet in the media items, these knowledge bases are often intertwined or blended,” Geiger said.

    He said schools also needed to do more to help students scrutinise whether sources were credible, and the media should provide links to original sources of statistics and information quoted in articles.

    Geiger said unless key skills were addressed at school, there was a real danger that students would grow up to be adults at risk of accepting “fake news”.

    Professor Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, said incorrect interpretations of COVID-19 statistics had led to misinformation through the pandemic.

    One example was misinterpretation of vaccine effectiveness data. While raw data might show a higher raw number of deaths and infections among the vaccinated population when most people have been vaccinated, the rate of infection and death in unvaccinated people is still higher.

    “The numbers may appear simple, but they’re not, they’re what we would call composite variables,” she said.

    Bennett said people should defer to the experts in the field to explain data and not necessarily attempt to draw conclusions from statistics for themselves.

  26. C@tmomma @ #1291 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 4:45 am

    Peter Dutton might have done a lot better in the latest poll if he hadn’t backed Scott Morrison to the hilt.

    Someone said last night that with these poll numbers SfM won’t be going anywhere, presumably an inference that Morrison might see himself returning to the leadership if Dutton’s and the coalition’s polling continues to be dire.

    Surely though there is no alternate universe in which SfM can lead the Liberals again. His reputation with the public and the media is so cooked, not to mention he’s completely blown his lot with his colleagues, that there’s no way he could return to the leadership without it looking like a complete and utter joke.

  27. RE: Tax Cuts.
    Granny Anny – thanks you are one of the few posters on this site to suggest a sensible and practical alternative for the Government to work through this unnecessary, future budget wrecking S3 Tax Cuts.
    The defer, until the Oppositions’ Trillion dollar debt is repaid, strategy is perfect.
    Despite the current comments I am certain that Jim Chalmers & Katy Gallagher, and their advisors, have been considering this option.

  28. i dont think morrison and dutton were that different only differents is dutton is a true conservative where as morrison was what ever it takes his allie elliott is still triying to blow up tperottet as secord quit the libs st ratigy of damaging minns via secord aligations failed how ever wonder if searle and moslemain will go talk brad hazard and stokes will go for libs and maybi ray williams

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