Roy Morgan’s weekly update reveals that its latest voting intention figures have Labor’s two-party lead out from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but does not treat us to primary vote numbers on this occasion. If I’m reading the blurry fine print correctly, the polling was conducted from August 8 to 14. Assuming Newspoll has resumed its previously established schedule of a poll of every three weeks, that should be along with us on Sunday evening.
Also of note:
• An article in Crikey last week provided details from YouGov’s Co-operative Election Survey panel survey, conducting during the campaign from May 2 to 18 from a sample of 5978. It indicates that the cohorts most likely to defect to Labor were the well educated, those with few assets, those identifying as having no religion, and those from non-English backgrounds. Also featured were those aged 18 to 34, although this cohort was the most volatile across the board – the voters least likely to defect from Labor were the oldest. Similarly, high income earners were both more likely to those on low and middle incomes both to defect to and from Labor.
• Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald explores the impact of young inner-city renters on the Morrison government’s defeat. Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group is quoted saying such voters are keen to get into the property market but “do not want to relocate to the outskirts of western Sydney or Melbourne”, and have “really looked down on conservative politicians mocking them on their lifestyle choices”. Such voters were attracted to the teal independents over Labor because they favour “a modern solution to their hunger for a different form of politics”, and over the Greens because of their “positions on housing and development at a local level, where ‘not in my backyard’ attitudes constrain supply”. The latter is particularly an issue at state level, to which the New South Wales government has responded by providing the option to pay annual land tax instead of upfront stamp duty and unveiling a plan for 4500 new homes around a railway station in Hornsby.
• The by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, vacated by the retirement of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner, will be held tomorrow. Labor’s Brent Potter will defend a 9.6% margin against Country Liberal Party candidate Ben Hosking and four others.
A POLL!!
Voters have swung behind Labor with a surge of support to give the new federal government a strong lead in the community with a primary vote of 42 per cent, up from 33 per cent at the election just three months ago.
The significant shift has given Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a commanding lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton of 55 to 17 per cent as preferred prime minister, repeating the stunning gains for new leaders after previous elections.
With federal politics dominated by a dispute over former prime minister Scott Morrison and his decision to take five ministerial portfolios without telling parliament, the new findings show voters have cut their primary vote support for the Coalition from 36 to 28 per cent since the election.
The exclusive survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, marks a return to political polling for the firm since independent observers described it as “easily the best final poll” when Australians went to the ballot box on May 21.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/post-election-surge-in-support-for-anthony-albanese-s-new-labor-government-20220822-p5bbol.html
Resolve poll just out. Remember Resolve was the closest to the actual result at the last election. These numbers are a bit hard to believe tho.
ALP 42, LNP 28, GRN 12, OTH 18
PPM:
Albo 55, Dutton 17, undecided 28
Albo’s performance in “recent weeks” :
Good + very good 61
Poor + very poor 22
Undecided 17
Why are the figures so hard to believe? New governments usually get a honeymoon period.
hazza4257 at 6.08 re Resolve poll just out…
IIRC, that’s Jim (Liberal-loving, let’s have FPTP – which would’ve re-elected my mate Scomo) Reed’s mob. Their polling tends to skew Coalition, does it not?
From those primaries, I’d give Labor about 80% of the Greens’ 12 and 33% of the Others’ 18, for a total of 57.5 2PP. However, the Greens’ preference flow to Labor in May was a bit more than 80%, so closer to 58.
58/42 2PP.
Any estimates on Dutton’s duration as LOTO?
Re Hazza @6:@@
My calculation of 2PP is ALP 42 + 0 + 9.5 + 9 = 60.
Not really relevant at this stage.
The rolling Rail strike by NSW Rail union should stop now. The Rail union, which says that they serve people, cannot put Railway customers through so much hardship and frustration.
NSW Labor and Chris Minns should use their influence with unions to take their dispute away from Railway tracks.
If the Rail union think that they are doing a favour to NSW Labor then they are sorely mistaken. They need to stop this skullduggery with railway customers.
Snappy Tom @ #1148 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:07 pm
Oh, FFS. In this particular case of course it is a ‘Yes’ – a very BIG ‘Yes’.
Labor originally opposed them, then supported them for their own political (not economic) ends, and is now in a position to amend them or rescind them. They have the numbers in the House and the Senate to do so if they want.
But they don’t want.
How much more ‘responsible’ can you get? Labor now owns these tax cuts, and once most people understand how much they are not benefiting, and how much each Labor politician and CEO is benefiting, they will rightly be incensed. It also removes Labor’s ability to cry ‘poor’ over any other policies. Idiots.
Labor has strong leads as trusted to handle x issue, on all issues. This includes traditional Lib strengths:
Economic management
ALP 39
LNP 30
National security and defence
ALP 35
LNP 31
Managing the finances
ALP 36
LNP 31
Crime and antisocial behaviour
ALP 33
LNP 23
Cost of living
ALP 39
LNP 21
”
hazza4257says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 6:11 pm
Resolve poll just out. Remember Resolve was the closest to the actual result at the last election. These numbers are a bit hard to believe tho.
ALP 42, LNP 28, GRN 12, OTH 18
PPM:
Albo 55, Dutton 17, undecided 28
Albo’s performance in “recent weeks” :
Good + very good 61
Poor + very poor 22
Undecided 17
”
Did you look at the approval ratings of Dutton?
I think those poor ratings are the reason why Newspoll is not coming out with a poll in recent times. Murdoch rags don’t want to show Dutton in such bad light.
Remember that opinion poll when John Howard positive rating was 18% . Bulletin magazine called him Mr. 18% and asked why does he even bother.
Whereas Dutton rating is 17% now 🙂
Look at the Resolve poll results in Vic – LNP on 24%. I know it is a small sample but still a bad result.
Especially given there is a state election in 3 months.
The next Newspoll could be a doozy.
Melbournians love nothing more than an authoritarian Queensland ex copper who laughs about climate change.
A new poll, a good result (as expected), happy happy happy. The nation appears to feel as though it’s in a good place at the moment. Not so much for Dutton though.
”
BKsays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 6:25 pm
The next Newspoll could be a doozy.
”
BK
IMO, we may not see a Newspoll soon because Murdoch rags don’t want to show Dutton in poor light. 🙂
Snappy Tom says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 6:16 pm
hazza4257 at 6.08 re Resolve poll just out…
IIRC, that’s Jim (Liberal-loving, let’s have FPTP – which would’ve re-elected my mate Scomo) Reed’s mob. Their polling tends to skew Coalition, does it not?
From those primaries, I’d give Labor about 80% of the Greens’ 12 and 33% of the Others’ 18, for a total of 57.5 2PP. However, the Greens’ preference flow to Labor in May was a bit more than 80%, so closer to 58.
58/42 2PP.
“Any estimates on Dutton’s duration as LOTO?”
I suspect they’ll leave Dutton there for 2 years as nobody wants to be LOTO against Albo before that time.
Ven @ #1164 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:33 pm
You mean like this?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChfviRvUcAAiXsW?format=jpg
BK @ #1161 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:25 pm
Regardless, the Murdoch fluffers will find some minutia in the numbers to show that Albo has failed some test they have just made up.
I understand that internal polling shows the Liberal primary vote in Victoria at under 30%.
Mat(……..) Guy (…………) is heading for a bigger defeat than at the last election.
Mind you, electioneering on the (how many times rejected both at State and Federal level?) East-West Link AND withdrawing from public transport infrastructure programs feeds into the car centric Liberal Party and cute politics.
Then a spend on health instead, noting that health facilities are useless unless staffed by those with appropriate qualifications.
So we need a partnership between Federal and State governments, the Feds educating thru the University system to staff the State facilities.
Who would anyone prefer to see negotiating with Albanese?
Mat (…….) Guy (………..) playing his childish politics?
Or Andrews delivering outcomes?
Albanese and the government he leads are a big plus to Andrews.
Before you get to NSW and confirmation of how the Liberal Party “govern”
The polling in Victoria is no surprise – it is a progressive State.
Ven @ #1157 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:16 pm
Sorry, Ven, but you’re talking out of your, um, self-interest? I actually had an in-depth conversation with a member of the RTBU on the weekend and he informed me that the Perrottet government are playing ducks and drakes with the money they have promised the union to bring the rail cars up to a safe standard and have yet to put it into writing, and until they do then the union will keep on striking because they are not going to play Charlie Brown while Elliott and Perrottet play Lucy with the football.
”
Player Onesays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 6:35 pm
Ven @ #1164 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:33 pm
IMO, we may not see a Newspoll soon because Murdoch rags don’t want to show Dutton in poor light.
You mean like this?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChfviRvUcAAiXsW?format=jpg
”
P1
Exactly! 🙂
here we go again,
Gladys Berejiklian tried to privatise one of our local Public Hospitals at Wyong. It would have been ‘Public’ in name only by the end of it, with all services and employees on a private payroll and the only difference between it and a Private Hospital, that all people would still be allowed to go to its Emergency Department. I’m sure that that Guy, Matt, had a look at that and could see a blueprint for Victoria. Lots of money to Liberal mates using taxpayers’ $$. What’s not to like for a Liberal?
Cronus @ #1165 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:35 pm
Also, Labor haven’t even gotten started on FICAC and the Royal Commission into the handling of COVID-19 by the Coalition. 😀
Granny Anny @ #1134 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 5:33 pm
How did you land on interest savings of $22B per year on tax cuts that aggregate to $184B over ten years?
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 6:44 pm
Ven @ #1157 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:16 pm
The rolling Rail strike by NSW Rail union should stop now. The Rail union, which says that they serve people, cannot put Railway customers through so much hardship and frustration.
NSW Labor and Chris Minns should use their influence with unions to take their dispute away from Railway tracks.
If the Rail union think that they are doing a favour to NSW Labor then they are sorely mistaken. They need to stop this skullduggery with railway customers.
Sorry, Ven, but you’re talking out of your, um, self-interest? I actually had an in-depth conversation with a member of the RTBU on the weekend and he informed me that the Perrottet government are playing ducks and drakes with the money they have promised the union to bring the rail cars up to a safe standard and have yet to put it into writing, and until they do then the union will keep on striking because they are not going to play Charlie Brown while Elliott and Perrottet play Lucy with the football.
”
C@tmomma
Did you watch Channel 9 6 pm News today?
Chris O’Keefe (I think) did a item on this Rail strike. He interviewed Chris Minns. You know what Chris Minns said?
He wants the the strike to stop now.
When O’Keefe asked why doesn’t he ask to stop this strike, there was word salad from Chris Minns.
“ Moscow sees no possibility of a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine and expects a long conflict, a senior Russian diplomat has warned, as President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion reaches the six-month mark this week.”
Not at all surprising, indeed, as expected. I expect the Russian mothers of teenage males to be one of the most important forces for change over the coming 24 months as the inevitable dawns on them.
Paywalled https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/no-hope-for-diplomacy-russian-diplomat-warns-20220822-p5bbot
Resolve obviously not polling at IGA!!!
Speaking of polls, with the SG report out tomorrow, is anyone making odds on Morrison showing up for an interview?
C@T
“Also, Labor haven’t even gotten started on FICAC and the Royal Commission into the handling of COVID-19 by the Coalition. ”
Indeed, the fun has only just begun. Mr 17% might actually be a high point.
here we go againsays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 6:42 pm
Or Andrews delivering outcomes
_____________________
Outcomes ??
We are treating people in tents you dickhead.
Is that a good enough outcome for you ?
Socrates says:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 7:01 pm
“Speaking of polls, with the SG report out tomorrow, is anyone making odds on Morrison showing up for an interview?”
I imagine there’s a better chance of him showing up in Hawaii.
This is what political capital looks like folks. Needs to be spent wisely. To all those fixated on tax cuts round 3, bear in mind Labor now does better with high income earners than the Libs. Instead take off the blinkers and cast your eyes around the vast array of other tax lurks and schemes that are exploited to minimise tax and collectively will do much more for long term budget integrity than simply stopping the clock on legislated income tax cuts. Super, trusts, dividends, rebates etc are overdue for a cleanup. Rip into those while the Libs are on the mat.
I didn’t sense a word salad from Minns. It’s pretty clear from what was shown that he wants the strikes to end now.
Here’s the report:
https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/1561629003412377602
Large percentage of peeps not committing in that poll.
Vensays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 6:33 pm
This accusation has been made and refuted many times in the past.
All these tax lurks, loopholes and schemes. It’s a wonder that no government has ever tapped into this vast pool of money. Wherever they do exist, they will likely evaporate when taxed, and then other lurks, loopholes and schemes will be found. But let’s see if Labor can find them first.
@ Snappy Tom, 6:07pm:
“ Judging by this afternoon’s delightful debate on S3 tax cuts, the answer is “Yes.” Not only that, but ALL Coalition policies and enacted legislation form “tests for Labor” – as defined by the likes of Rex, nath and P1. Should Labor fail said “tests” they are either cowards or Right Wing Arseholes. Unwritten booby-prize: should Labor pass said tests, they will become the first one-term govt since WW2, and will be lectured by the likes of Rex, nath and P1 that, if only they’d had more [insert here] and less [insert here], they’d still be on govt and it’s all Labor’s fault their not. In summary, it’s Labor’s fault whether they’re in govt or not.
Such an edifying afternoon.‘
_______________
It is inevitable that we are in for at least 1,000 days of repeat, bad faith, bullshit posted by these roosters until the next election. I’ve copied your brilliant post to paste in riposte whenever I detect a repeat performance (probably not actually because THAT would itself clog up the blog. But occasionally, as a reminder) because the “hive mind” needs to stick together.
Steve777 @ #1155 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 6:16 pm
If you frame the TPP in terms of ALP & Teals versus LNP (which is the reality the LNP is facing). Assume the LNP get 20% of green, 20% of IND, and 65% of the rest – you land on 61.5/39.5
Well those S3 tax cuts are really putting a dent in Labor’s numbers.
“ A POLL!!
Voters have swung behind Labor with a surge of support to give the new federal government a strong lead in the community with a primary vote of 42 per cent, up from 33 per cent at the election just three months ago.
The significant shift has given Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a commanding lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton of 55 to 17 per cent as preferred prime minister, repeating the stunning gains for new leaders after previous elections.
With federal politics dominated by a dispute over former prime minister Scott Morrison and his decision to take five ministerial portfolios without telling parliament, the new findings show voters have cut their primary vote support for the Coalition from 36 to 28 per cent since the election.
The exclusive survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, marks a return to political polling for the firm since independent observers described it as “easily the best final poll” when Australians went to the ballot box on May 21.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/post-election-surge-in-support-for-anthony-albanese-s-new-labor-government-20220822-p5bbol.html”
_______
Imagine if Labor took the advice of the Greens and various bad faith actors in the media (not to mention our very own P1, Rex and nath) and announced that the stage3 tax cuts would be scrapped.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 7:03 pm
—————————–
TMAD hatefully calling an inoffensive PB poster ‘you dickhead’!
I’m wondering if Dutton (Mr. 17%) will be able to do a Howard, who had a similar metric at one point when he was the LOTO? And with a PV of 42%, Labor’s riding high & deservedly so.
Early in the electoral cycle is the time to make difficult decisions, such as the tax cuts for the relatively well-off. IIRC the Tories presented an omnibus bill, which had the effect of my way or the highway. In other words, it was tax cuts for the wealthy or the hoi polloi would miss out.
I’ve read the posts of those who take a contrary view, but I’m by & large unconvinced by them. I think that Labor should – and in stark terms – hammer the quantum of debt, and the cost of servicing it, the ghost of Gillard’s so-called carbon tax, that some appear to fear, a distant memory. I predict that in Chalmer’s October economic statement, they’ll be a few surprises. And I hope one of them will be a reversal of the tax cuts for the upper bracketed.
I for one am committed to not mentioning the stage 3 tax cuts again. Unless there is some unlikely change in policy direction. I’ve had my say and I don’t want to rattle the fragile hive mind too much.
“ IMO, we may not see a Newspoll soon because Murdoch rags don’t want to show Dutton in poor light.
You mean like this?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChfviRvUcAAiXsW?format=jpg
”
––––––
Actually, the poor light in that picture leaves Dutton looking … at least human. He’s gone nearly full Voldemort since then: it is only a matter of time before his nose drops off and his nostrils recede to mere breathing slits.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1189 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 7:12 pm
Not sure the effect of maverick Morrison’s multiple ministries is fully priced into this poll – when was the survey taken?
Citizen, hazza
“ Resolve poll just out. Remember Resolve was the closest to the actual result at the last election. These numbers are a bit hard to believe tho.
ALP 42, LNP 28, GRN 12, OTH 18”
Thanks for the cheering news. Those Green and Other numbers suggest Labor’s vote has improved directly at the expense of the LNP. Several thoughts.
Morrison will not leave Cook voluntarily on these numbers.
Albo, Chalmers, Wong and Marles are performing superbly.
No wonder Vic Liberals are panicking over the State election. On that “Other” number of 18%, surely the same inner urban seats will be in play for Teal candidates?
One major mistake Rudd made was not going for a double dissolution when he had the issue and the support in his favour. Labor should not do it flippantly. But on these numbers, if part of Labor’s election platform is challenged, they should not be afraid to threaten one. The Liberals have a mandate for nothing.
Hawksfan @ #1181 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 7:04 pm
Exactly.
But there are some here that need a hobby horse to flog to death.
nath @ #1192 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 7:16 pm
You mean Player One and Rex Douglas and Granny Anny? ‘)
C@t. Hopefully other non-stooges will follow my lead and give your people some peace of mind over this issue. Normally I wouldn’t agree that a topic should be considered verboten, but to keep the peace somewhat between stooge and non stooge, it might be necessary.
I get 61.2 vs 31.8 TPP.
ALP: 42 + (12 * 0.8566) + (5 * 0.357) + (2 * 0.3814) + (8 * 0.6377) + (3 * 0.4401).
LNP: 28 + (12 * 0.1434) + (5 * 0.643) + (2 * 0.6186) + (8 * 0.3623) + (3 * 0.5599).
That 8 for Independents is way too high. Even in May they only got a touch over 5.
Taylormade
The herald sun and neil mitchell are not your
Friend. Or channel nine news propaganda.
—
SPOT THE DIFFERENCE: One is the actual interior of a fully kitted out Vic Health ward extension — the other is how Channel 9 reported on it. Gotta give ’em points for creativity in finding a negative angle on tackling ambulance ramping. #auspol https://t.co/ciEM0vo4fT
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