Roy Morgan’s weekly update reveals that its latest voting intention figures have Labor’s two-party lead out from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but does not treat us to primary vote numbers on this occasion. If I’m reading the blurry fine print correctly, the polling was conducted from August 8 to 14. Assuming Newspoll has resumed its previously established schedule of a poll of every three weeks, that should be along with us on Sunday evening.
Also of note:
• An article in Crikey last week provided details from YouGov’s Co-operative Election Survey panel survey, conducting during the campaign from May 2 to 18 from a sample of 5978. It indicates that the cohorts most likely to defect to Labor were the well educated, those with few assets, those identifying as having no religion, and those from non-English backgrounds. Also featured were those aged 18 to 34, although this cohort was the most volatile across the board – the voters least likely to defect from Labor were the oldest. Similarly, high income earners were both more likely to those on low and middle incomes both to defect to and from Labor.
• Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald explores the impact of young inner-city renters on the Morrison government’s defeat. Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group is quoted saying such voters are keen to get into the property market but “do not want to relocate to the outskirts of western Sydney or Melbourne”, and have “really looked down on conservative politicians mocking them on their lifestyle choices”. Such voters were attracted to the teal independents over Labor because they favour “a modern solution to their hunger for a different form of politics”, and over the Greens because of their “positions on housing and development at a local level, where ‘not in my backyard’ attitudes constrain supply”. The latter is particularly an issue at state level, to which the New South Wales government has responded by providing the option to pay annual land tax instead of upfront stamp duty and unveiling a plan for 4500 new homes around a railway station in Hornsby.
• The by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, vacated by the retirement of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner, will be held tomorrow. Labor’s Brent Potter will defend a 9.6% margin against Country Liberal Party candidate Ben Hosking and four others.
The Lachlan Murdoch letters
Fox News helped bring Donald Trump to power. Then when he lost office, it articulated and amplified the Big Lie that the 2020 election had been “stolen”. But what of the family who owns and runs Fox? Nearly two months ago, Crikey dared to mention the word Murdoch in relation to Trump, Fox News and the fatal January 6 2021 raid on the US Capitol. That was sufficient for Lachlan Murdoch to threaten to sue us. Now we call his bluff.
https://www.crikey.com.au/topic/lachlan-murdoch-letters/
UK inflation is on course to hit 18.6 per cent in January — the highest peak in almost half a century — due to soaring wholesale gas prices, according to a new forecast from Citi based on the latest market prices.
The investment bank predicted that the retail energy price cap would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year — shifts it said would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”.
“We now expect CPI inflation to peak at over 18 per cent in January,” said Benjamin Nabarro, chief UK economist at Citi. That would be higher than the peak of inflation after the second Opec oil shock of 1979 when CPI reached 17.8 per cent, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
Such a rate of inflation would squeeze household incomes hard and further push the UK economy into recession, but Nabarro said the scale of the likely inflation would push the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy further.
UK and European wholesale natural gas prices are already trading at close to 10 times normal levels and other forecasters have also raised their inflation predictions.
https://www.ft.com/content/778e65e1-6ec5-4fd7-98d5-9d701eb29567
Holden Hillbilly
Interesting regarding Murdoch threatening to sue Crikey. It will be a lot harder to win that in a US court.
Needless to say, as a Crikey subscriber, I wish them luck.
What would Murdoch sue them for? practicing journalism?
Didn’t they threaten to sue the ABC for ‘Fox and the Big Lie’, which was the best 4 corners work I had seen for a while. That doesn’t seem to have gone anywhere.
Hawksfan @ #1181 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 7:04 pm
Also, inflation will allow bracket creep to slowly repeal the tax cuts Another reason to look elsewhere to spend your political capital.
The larger problem persists- how to persuade a majority that we need higher levels of taxation.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/19/more-roy-morgan-and-post-federal-election-research-open-thread/comment-page-25/#comment-3969334
Inflation cannot undo the scrapping of the 37% tax rate, only the increase to the threshold(s).
Work To Rule says:
Also, inflation will allow bracket creep to slowly repeal the tax cuts Another reason to look elsewhere to spend your political capital.
_______________
that’s going to require a lot of creeping to get high income earners over 200k and out of the 30% bracket.
I will qualify for the Stage 3 tax cuts, don’t need them, and oppose them. Yet I agree with others that Labor should not oppose them now.
There are so many other ways to recoup revenue. Cap total deductions, apply minimum tax rates for corporates, put a super tax on gas company gougers. Don’t get caught up in symbolic battles. Be pragmatic, and live to see a Federal ICAC roast a lot of suspect Liberals.
Socrates:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 7:21 pm
Other than the rusted, most I think have had a gutful of Morrison – a failed experiment. When he knocked off Turnbull, the electorate was willing to give him a go. Apparently, he even ratted on his apparent friend Fydenberg, with whom he shared a pad at the Lodge. But there’s more, after taking the advice of Porter re. s.64, he even turned on him by duplicating the Industry ministry.
nath @ #1210 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 7:58 pm
Bear in mind bracket creep operates at each threshold – not just the top one. So if you combine the effects of bracket creep with a reduction of tax evasion/minimisation then you get there with far less political capital spent.
Time will tell but I’m guessing that will be the approach.
Mitch McConnell gives his reasoning why Trump’s candidates aren’t helping the GOP in the 2022 midterms.
“Senate races are just different. They’re statewide,” he added. “Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/21/opinions/trump-mcconnell-senate-election-2022-obeidallah/index.html
First, note the picture McConnell draws. In Senate (state wide) seats you need quality candidates. In House (gerrymandered) seats, not so much. And he’s admitting that Trump’s GOP Senate candidates are not quality candidates. Trump had no choice but to discredit McConnell.
Second, as pointed out by the article’s writer, McConnell is making the 2022 midterms all about Trump. Perhaps we’ll get a repeat of 2020.
Third, McConnell picked this fight with Trump, who responded eagerly in typical style, attacking both McConnell and McConnell’s wife for being weak and only interested in themselves. So hurray, the GOP gets to waste energy attacking itself and looking a shambles.
Surely this has been a strategic misstep on McConnell’s part.
Mavis
Yes Morrison will surely go down in history as one of our least well remembered PMs. I cannot describe him as anything other than an untrustworthy liar, who himself trusted no-one else. A deeply flawed character.
Dutton is not off to a good start in that poll. The 17% approval rating is an average. In over 55s Dutton’s approval rating “soars” to 25%. His approval rating is 12% in 18 to 25 year olds.
Dutton at 17%
Maintaining a healthy lead over the Greens on 12%
Work To Rule says:
Bear in mind bracket creep operates at each threshold – not just the top one.
_______
the only other bracket will be those going from 19% below 45k to 30% above 45k. And there is the tax free threshold of 18k. It’s an unprecedented flattening of personal income tax, completely regressive. But I’ve said too much. I risk the pitchforks….
Now here are some enterprising chappies.
.
Fake police station runs right next to real one for eight months without a hitch in India
Gang donning fake police uniforms extorts money from hundreds of people in Bihar.
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/bihar-fake-police-station-scam-b2148466.html
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/19/more-roy-morgan-and-post-federal-election-research-open-thread/comment-page-25/#comment-3969341
Bracket creep for the lower income taxpayers to fund tax cuts for the rich is regressive and worth fighting.
LNP in the 20s on primary in NSW and Victoria, Labor in the 40s. Teals snapping at the heels.
Victoria State election 26 November 2022
NSW State election 25 March 2023
Are we about to witness the demise of the once proud party of Menzies?
Where is Lars von Tryhard calling for the orderly wind up of the Liberal Party?
Or a Truth and Reconciliation Commission into the Morrison Bastardry ™ ?
Can a Phoenix rise from the ashes of this massive rejection by the Australian people? As Bob Hawke used to say; “The Australian people never get it wrong.”
sprocket_ @ #1220 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 8:25 pm
The Libs were out of power in the Commonwealth and every State and Territory for a period under Rudd. How did that turn out?
Boerwar at 7:57 pm
Yes, it has been fully drummed in to the public mind as being a basic law of the universe that less tax is always good. The connection between reducing government’s income raising ability and its ability to provide the sort of things we expect them provide is yet to be made.
if it is not pay walled worth while reading the afrs 2018 profile off morrison hinted he trusted no one but hawke robbert irons and mortin and you had to go to them to find out what was happening even frydenberg was out of the loop
It’s Time
At one stage during the reign of The Rodent the next most senior elected Coalition politician was CanJoh as Mayor of Brivegas.
Former Crosby Textor man, Jim Reed, sums it up..
“It’s not uncommon for a new government to enjoy a honeymoon period where voters are hopeful for change under the new management,” said Resolve director Jim Reed.
“But the size of Labor’s vote gain is more than that. This is a relieved electorate affirming they collectively made the right choice.
“Labor has used its first 100 days to get runs on the board on wages, foreign affairs and climate, set up a social agenda and manage expectations on economic issues.
“In doing so, they’ve reassured and converted a segment of around eight per cent of the electorate, taking that support from a new opposition that nobody is listening to yet.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/post-election-surge-in-support-for-anthony-albanese-s-new-labor-government-20220822-p5bbol.html
Aaron Newton 8.32
That description certainly fits Morrison’s subsequent behaviour.
Ch9 joining the celebration..
Your fired up sprocket.
Go you good thing!!
Socratessays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 8:04 pm
I’d definitely support a cap on deductions.
The idea that someone can in the upper brackets can reduce their tax liability to zero is abhorrent.
“ Are we about to witness the demise of the once proud party of Menzies?”
Regrettably, no.
Also, the Liberal party was never a ‘proud party’ of anyone. It was Menzies’ marketing scam from its very inception. He was the front man, Dick Casey was propagandist in chief*/Sith Lord, and Garfield Barwick was the bag man.
* Casey’s ‘greatest’ contributions to the cause was the fictitious John Henry Austral radio show that created the trope of ‘the forgotten people’ whilst gaslighting the heroic reconstruction efforts of the still very popular Chifley government, and pinching Labor’s advertising agency, thereby eeking out an extremely narrow victory in 1949. A real sliding doors moment for this country. A pox on the Liberal party. Truly a cancer on the Nation. May it die a horrid death.
Just heard Jacqui announce on Sky overnight that she intends to vote no to the st3 tax cuts, even though she voted for them previously. Very interesting.
Damage control by Hurley, saying his office would accept change as to how ministerial appointments are advised. Far too late! He was complicit in Morrison’s not-so-grand plan. He should be given a few months before being sent to pasture.
A lot in this David Rowe..
Andrew_Earlwood at 8:44 pm
Was Keef Murdoch involved ?
AAron newton @ #1225 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 8:32 pm
Obviously, Frydenburg was out of the loop. 😐
What is the picture of Hawke and the league player about , I suppose NJ = Newtown Jets but the picture is from………..
Meanwhile Albo at Enmore theatre for Gang of Youths…
https://twitter.com/rhanna_collins/status/1561663920913276928?s=21&t=WUOLj7Bm5p1D9__DY_hQIw
Given how popular the tax cuts evidently are, perhaps it would be a vote winner for Labor to implement further cuts.
porotisays:
Monday, August 22, 2022 at 8:58 pm
Andrew_Earlwood at 8:44 pm
Was Keef Murdoch involved ?
————————-
There’s only one Keef and surname Richards.
nath @ #1199 Monday, August 22nd, 2022 – 7:33 pm
Oh, nath. Always with the slag and bag. However, I choose to embrace your nomenclature, so this one’s for you. It’s by my Stooges bedfellows 😀
https://youtu.be/LC9km8qnbOY
@poroti (8:58pm).
Why, yes. Of course he was.
Part of Menzies’ marketing scam involved him having him, and his newly minted Liberal Party cut the open ties that existed between the UAP and the old-money, Melbourne Club cabal that ran it; businessmen were largely relegated to roles like party treasurer, or the board of Liberal Party think tanks such as the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA).
The IPA, formed in 1943, played an important role in developing Liberal policies. Its founding board of management was a who’s who of the business establishment, with companies such as Coles, Hoyts and BHP involved, and Sir Keith Murdoch (father of Rupert) of the Herald and Weekly Times playing an important role.
The marketing scam involved a long con: to portrait the Liberal party as being ‘for’ the rapidly expanding middle class – and working class aspirationals, whilst simultaneously allowing the establishment to siphon off as much of the nation’s wealth as possible. We became a nation of crumb collectors: a project that John Howard to to even more extreme levels in the next Liberal Epoc. One hopes that the Howard Epoc is dissipating, as between them the Whitlam and then the Hawke-Keating governments were able to dissipate much of the national torpor of the Menzies con.
At the May election, the Liberals lost a swag of seats in Victoria on a primary of 33.
Not looking good for Lobster Matthew. Is it too late to dump him?
AE, what about the New Guard in NSW and the ‘White Army’ in VIC. Surely they were involved somewhere with the Liberals?
No one should be surprised why Labor’s vote is so high. They see a problem then they act. Simples.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/butler-puts-cosmetic-surgery-regulation-on-health-ministers-agenda-as-calls-for-royal-commission-grow-20220822-p5bboj.html
Hawke is with Chicka Ferguson, Canberra’s Winger, in the dressing room after they had won the 1989 grand final.
It was at this exact time that Laurie Daley earned the nickname “toolie” from Roy and H.G. But that is another Rugby League legend.
@nath
No pitchforks. I expect most here agree the stage 3 tax cut are overly regressive. The point is they were (and still are) an attempt to wedge the ALP. I agree with most here it’s not worth the political capital required to fully address the regressive effects in the first term.
Those that put pressure on Albanese to rescind the cuts without putting the same pressure on Dutton are merely trying to keep the wedge in place.
“ What is the picture of Hawke and the league player about , I suppose NJ = Newtown Jets but the picture is from………..”
Well spotted. ‘Chicka’ was Chicka Ferguson, who played his last years with the Canberra Raiders – a team that Hawke adopted as his own when living in the lodge (this may have been the inspiration of Morrison’s belated conversion from Rugger Bugger Randwick rats fan to the Sharkies, post 2008). BEFORE playing for the raiders, Chicka was a Newtown Jets stalwart. The Jets – kicked out of the league in 1983 to make way for the Raiders – is now a feeder club for the South Sydney Rabbitohs (I think – at one stage they were a feeder for the Rooters, but who knows). The Jets old home ground was Henson park, just around the corner from Albo’s Marrickville pad. Albo is as often seen walking around ina Jets jersey as in Rabbits gear, so obviously he has some affection for the Jets and hence it seems Rowe has Albo as having graffitied the original Photo of Chicka and Hawke to make it look like Chicka is wearing a Jets jersey and not that of the perfidious Raiders. This is actually a deep and layered message that Rowe has inserted into his latest offering.
“ AE, what about the New Guard in NSW and the ‘White Army’ in VIC. Surely they were involved somewhere with the Liberals?”
I think they all vapour locked upon receiving the news of Joe Lyons demise. So sad.
Chika had just scored one of the more famous trys in Rugby League.
https://youtu.be/L2DB-26NgQw
In the last minute Balmain were ahead but Chicka scored to send it to extra time and Canberra won.
My 13 year old son, a Balmain fanatic was destroyed