Essential Research and JWS Research post-election survey (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s ratings remain high, albeit slightly less high, while JWS Research offers results from a poll conducted in the days after the election.

Essential Research’s fortnightly report continues to not feature voting intention, and its monthly leadership ratings are continuing to not feature Peter Dutton. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 55% in this month’s result, while his disapproval is up four to 28%. Some steam has also gone out of a post-election surge on a monthly national direction question, on which 43% find Australia headed in the right direction, down four, with wrong direction up three to 31%.

In a series of “performance of the Albanese government” questions, there was a 56-44 majority in favour of it having its priorities right, 54-46 majorities for getting things done and being in touch and 52-48 for addressing long-term problems, although a 51-49 majority felt it too idealistic. A series on “support for federal government measures is less good: 60% want the fuel excise cut extended, with only 12% supporting the government’s intention to not do so, 44% support higher JobSeeker payments, with 27% opposed, and 42% want a delay in “stage three income tax cuts, which predominantly benefits higher income earners”, with 25% opposed.

“Awareness of proposed Voice to Parliament” would appear to be fairly low, with 33% saying they had heard nothing of it in the past month and 32% saying hardly anything, compared with 5% for a lot and 29% for a fair amount. With the notion explained, 65% said they were in favour and 35% opposed. Seventy-five per cent supported a parliamentary pledge to “Australia and the Australian people”, with only 15% opting for the Queen. The survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1075.

Also out this week is a post-election survey report from JWS Research, conducted from a sample of 1000 in the two days after the May 21 election. Asked what was most important in deciding their vote, more chose for “the party as a whole” than for “specific policies or issues”, and fewer still for the leaders and candidates, but Coalition voters were most inclined to rate the first of these and Greens voters uniquely favoured the second.

On issue salience, there was a 53-10 majority for economic over environmental issues among Coalition voters, but a 36-29 majority the other way among Labor voters, both sets of numbers being hardly changed from a similar survey after the 2019 election. An exercise in which respondents were asked whether or not the election campaign possessed various qualities also produced results very similar to 2019: 56-16 for important over not important, 39-30 for not interesting over interesting, 38-27 for negative over positive, 42-24 for deceitful over honest, 51-22 for same old stuff over new and different. For whatever reason, impressions were more negative across the board in 2016.

Thirty-six per cent rated the Labor campaign positive and 35% negative, compared with 28% and 44% for the Coalition. From 44% who said they favoured a Labor government, 25% favoured a majority and 19% a minority government; from 33% who favoured a Coalition government, 24% favoured a majority and 9% a majority.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,356 comments on “Essential Research and JWS Research post-election survey (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 48
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  2. “8 months to go the liberals would be crazy to dump their current leader…. but then again desperate people can do desperate things”

    Late changes of leader have historically had mixed results:

    February 1983: Bill Hayden —> Bob Hawke, 8-9 months out but early election expected to be called any day. Bob Hawke won the election the following month.

    June 2010: Kevin Rudd —> Julia Gillard. Election expected in 4-5 months, was held early (~ 3 months later). Rudd won.

    June 2013: Kevin Rudd brought back about 3 months before expected election date. Lost.

    January 1976 (NSW): Bumbling Tom Lewis replaced by cleanskin liberal Liberal Eric Willis about 4 months out to salvage a corrupt 11-year old Coalition Government. Labor won by one seat.

  5. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 9:32 am
    “No member of the Opposition will attend the jobs summit, according to Ley, who says it’s a stunt.”

    Makes a bit of a mockery of Morrison’s constant refrain of “jobs, jobs, jobs” then doesn’t it. Suggests the Coalition didn’t mean it after all, who knew.

  6. This study (one of many, using different metrics) suggests we’re happier than ever —

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0750-z.epdf?sharing_token=vXmq2LqOjLz4zqK25BXeGdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MxgYSrJVfhddXanWYRYj3TgKl8cTNtbdCaEwOyLUefNvy9tAzy_GCc7cjjFH18sOgYoZklpDq7TpT04cgFmKrnVwrxGOXeJkuA-30Gw2DNl755cT_Mp0glUH48MlS-YIZD79iapefyqmZgSRPBJL3R3WmwAYTWibcMozrPMFTwE7LPpHuioma-bTZgS31dNRk%3D&tracking_referrer=www.technologyreview.com

    Most studies point to a downturn over the last few years due to COVID, but as a trend, people are happier and healthier than ever.

    Personally, I know that if I’d been born a century ago, I would have died in my twenties (probably earlier) in childbirth. That I didn’t makes me very happy.

    People being miserable makes news. People being wildly elated occasionally makes news. People muddling along, doing nothing terribly extraordinary, leading happy ordinary lives, doesn’t.

  7. ”No member of the Opposition will attend the jobs summit, according to Ley, who says it’s a stunt.”

    Well, they were given the chance.

    The Coalition don’t do bipartisanship. Their natural inclination would probably be to attend and do what they can wreck it, but opportunities would be limited. They’ll settle for joining with Newscrap to jeer from the sidelines.

  8. [‘Here was the state treasurer’s response when asked if he was prepared to take Perrottet’s job:

    No. Premier Perrottet is doing an outstanding job. I and the team support him. We [are getting] back to business, helping people get their first home, rolling out universal pre-kindergarten to every kid in NSW.’] – SMH

    On what criteria can it be claimed that Perrottet’s doing an “outstanding job”(?). It’s most likely that the sharks are circling in the wake of the trade envoys’ scandal, where the premier has dug a sinkhole for himself.

  9. Did I sense Uhlmann having a lucid moment?
    _______
    Cronus – and others
    I did wonder. Briefly, as I read through it all and wondering when he would get to the point alluded to by the headline. But there almost was no point.

  10. Thanks for the dawn patrol BK!

    That article about the ACTU proposals for the upcoming jobs summit is a cracker! I couldn’t agree more with pretty much everything Sally McManus is proposing, ESPECIALLY the changes to the RBA’s mandate and windfall tax proposals.

    It would be excellent if the summit can be used as cover for things like ditching the stage 3 tax cuts, if the summit arrived at that consensus. Good to see that the coalition has dealt themselves out of the game like they did with the climate legislation, they are willingly furthering their own slide into irrelevance.

    Many of the ACTU proposals will make the vested interests go absolutely apesh!t, but it’s clear that tinkering around the edges with the economic situation that has developed in this country won’t cut it. More power to the ACTU!

  11. ”No member of the Opposition will attend the jobs summit, according to Ley, who says it’s a stunt.”
    _____
    Thereby cementing opinion that they have been consigned, willingly in this case, to political irrelevance.

  12. Cronus

    Makes a bit of a mockery of Morrison’s constant refrain of “jobs, jobs, jobs” then doesn’t it.

    Maybe not, he did very well on jobs(for maaates),jobs(for Lib hacks), jobs (for factional allies).

  13. Mavis @ #51 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 9:32 am

    No member of the Opposition will attend the jobs summit, according to Ley, who says it’s a stunt.

    Calling it a stunt is projection, methinks. But strategically it’s the Coalition’s 2nd best option, as it allows them to criticise the “effort wasted” and dismiss any outcomes. The 1st best option would be to attend and then walk out in a huff. The stunt would be the same but better, with no loss of available criticisms or dismissal of outcomes. (Cynical, I know.)

  15. Plans by the government to crack down on the use of labour hire companies under its principle of same job, same pay, have received a boost after One Nation advocated a similar policy of its own, writes Phil Coorey.

    A subtle little smear on the government, from Phil , Labor =Pauline ? 🙂
    Srsly though , it is no surprise she is on board but it would be for very different reasons than Labor. Hers being the large number of ‘swarthy foreigners’ involved rather than the exploitation of so many of them by unscrupulous employers.

  17. The wind has laid down and takes an overdue rest from the strenuous efforts of the last few days, while the rain clouds have scattered during the night. Infinite blue can be seen above the lingering morning muted-grey ones, still cool, hovering and quite low sitting, and the sun catches their upper limits. Though a layer of grey without any blue is coming in from the southwest.

    I drink black tea at the breakfast table – a redwood oval with a damask cloth, folded over, running crosswise – and wish I had some woollens on, to cover my neck and shoulders. The cold reaches through my denim trousers, pressing on my legs. Crockery is rattling in the pantry, someone sneezes and the washing machine whirs and bubbles. There’s a lonely pepper mill on the damask. The light here is from halogens, but they’re not excessively white. Oh, I remember now. I want to change the bed linen.

    I luxuriate in clean linen. I like the way its rests on my skin, and especially welcome the cultured feeling of fresh pillow cases against my face and beneath my head and neck. The rain has made it difficult to get the washing dry. But it’s fine today, so the washing is on and I’ll have a fresh bed tonight.

  18. BK says:
    Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 9:53 am
    ”No member of the Opposition will attend the jobs summit, according to Ley, who says it’s a stunt.”
    _____
    Thereby cementing opinion that they have been consigned, willingly in this case, to political irrelevance.

    The Lying Reactionaries have policies for everything: Nope, Nope and Nope.

  20. Re NttB @10:12. I see that it’s rained in Perth on each of the last 12 days for a total of 146 mm with periods of high winds. A bit like Sydney for much of the last 9 months although at least it wasn’t cold (mostly).

  22. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 10:22 am
    Re NttB @10:12. I see that it’s rained in Perth on each of the last 12 days for a total of 135 mm with periods of high winds.

    Aye, S777, it has been wet, windy and cold. We’re all chatting about it. Nothing like it, we feel. When will it end, we ask? When will summer come? And the roads. Insane. Terrible time on the roads. People have lost their minds.

  24. Trending on Twitter

    soul nate
    @MNateShyamalan
    first they came for roger stone, and i said “great.” next, they came for alex jones and i said “good news.” then they came for donald trump and i said “this is also excellent”

  25. BK says:
    Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 10:05 am
    Former international cricket umpire Rudi Koertzen has died in a car crash in South Africa.
    Vale Rudi. He has a great umpire to watch and batsmen were never left in doubt that they had been given out.
    “An ornament to the game.”

    A bit like Dickie Bird.

  26. Morning all and thanks for the roundup BK. Sorry to read about Rudi Koertzen, who was both a great umpire and seemed to bring a positive spirit to the role that enlivened play. Vale, Rudi Koertzen.

  29. Cronus

    As baseless implications and accusations go, this is as wild and evidence-free as they come.

    So ? We have for some time now been in a post truth world. Now that those accusations are out there they become the ‘truth’ for his supporters. The peasants no longer trust ‘the authorities’ .

  31. Sorry to mention submarines again, but it is dangerous to have time on your hands. A few things I have been reading lately have increased my concerns over the motives and benefits to Australia from the whole AUKUS proposal in so far as it includes the possibility of US subs for Australia.

    Peter Dutton pushed the idea of getting US subs from the start. We now know he also pushed former Liberal staffer Justin Bassi into the ASPI executive role. ASPI have also been pushing for the US subs from the start. Is there a conflict here?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/10/foi-documents-show-peter-duttons-captains-call-to-make-senior-liberal-head-of-defence-thinktank

    From all the stuff I have read on nuclear subs in the past year my views are as follows:
    – yes we do need SSNs; diesels no longer cut it in the environment China is creating
    – the reasons for dismissing French SSNs from consideration were false
    – the easiest SSN to construct in Adelaide would be the UK SSN (due to many local firms in supply chain)
    – the fastest SSN to deliver would have been the French SSN, if Macron agreed to build some in France for the RAN.
    – the French option may be the least risk under the NNPT
    – the French option is the easiest to crew, followed by the UK, with the US last
    – both the French and UK SSNs would be cheapest, at least $20 billion less than US SSNs

    In summary, it should a two horse race between UK and France, not USA. So why did we exclude France from consideration?

    There are literally billions at stake in this decision. I hope nobody from the LNP was getting a kickback.

  33. Further to the story on Australia and Brazil applying to the NNPT Conference to get approval for nuclear powered submarines, this is significant with regard to the Australian decision to abandon France in AUKUS.
    https://indepthnews.net/index.php/armaments/nuclear-weapons/5506-nuclear-submarines-and-the-non-proliferation-treaty-brazil-gets-a-jump-on-australia

    The reasons Dutton and Morrison cancelled the French sub was they would need refuelling every ten years, which would breach the NNPT. They lied.

    The problem is, as the article linked above explains, that what Dutton and Morrison said isn’t what the NNPT says. Brazil is arguing that its French-style nuclear sub, with low-enriched uranium (LEU) reactor, meets the NNPT.

    If Brazil’s application succeeds, Australia could go the same way with an LEU sub. China and Russia have objected to the NNPT about the Australian SSN application, but not the Brazilian one.

    Technically, a French SSN would have been the easiest one for Australia’s nuclear industry to support. The Lucas Heights reactor is the same type (LEU) and the core is supplied by France. it has already been replaced one, with no problems, and all safety standards met.

  34. “ Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has warned that China could escalate its attacks in the South China Sea at “any stage”, suggesting an incursion could happen “tomorrow”.

    I’ve got some news for Duts, incursions have been happening for months, even years though less often. Did he not notice during his time as Defence Minister?

    https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/china-says-australia-violating-un-charter-in-condemning-military-drills-in-taiwan-strait/news-story/cc6f09c20189483c6fd217d9bfa6794d

  35. A final comment from me for the morning on Amnesty International. I have stopped donating them money. This article from a UK equivalent of Crikey explains why.
    https://bylinetimes.com/2022/08/08/why-did-amnesty-international-ignore-my-warnings-about-their-ukraine-investigation/

    In a recent report Amnesty International accused Ukraine of hiding military forces near civilians implying use of a highly unethical “human shield” tactic. This was damaging for Ukraine in both propaganda and in military terms, as it helped justify Russia shelling Ukrainian civilian areas.

    It turns out the story was false. The civilian areas the Ukrainian areas had used were already evacuated. Worse, as the article above makes clear, AI were warned in advance. They still printed their report.

  36. Socrates at 10.57 am

    LNP dopes may not have been doing a Barilaro (“what’s in it for me?”, though that’s their usual way).

    Use Occam’s Razor – they are dunderheads strategically, simply no better at military stuff than Putin.

    My comments on your three 19 July posts re Putin’s war are on previous thread, 9.59 pm last night.

    There are additional sources there, including one about Putin and Patrushev’s dastardly bombings.

    To be clear, when it comes to blowing up Russians (including Russian citizens of Ukraine as well as poor Russian civilians and poor Russian soldiers) Putin has form, but he is a poor strategist, i.e. not adept at winning a war. However, to pick on one point, his war is not at all like the Afghan war. The only similarity is the refusal to actually declare a war. The Politburo decision to invade Afghanistan was hand-written, to prevent wider knowledge, though copying devices were uncommon in Russia in 1979. For a simple review (with a good anecdote) of the best book on the Afghanistan quagmire see:

    https://www.cleveland.com/books/2011/05/artemy_m_kalinovskys_a_long_go.html

    For a 2009 article by the book’s author see: https://sci-hub.hkvisa.net/10.1162/jcws.2009.11.4.46

    The difference is that Afghanistan was ultimately of marginal strategic importance to the USSR, so losing there was not nearly as bad as losing Putin’s current war. My supervisor, Mr Jukes, who was a military expert, used to point out that the USSR did not simply lose in Afghanistan, in the sense that the Najibullah government there remained in power for a few years after the Soviet withdrawal, indeed it was still formally in power when Yeltsin and Kravchuk chose to break up the USSR.

    Also on yesterday’s thread, at 12.17 pm, I outlined a rather idealistic scenario for ending Putin’s war. What I did not make clear is this: that scenario depends initially on Ukrainian victories in the south around Kherson occurring in the next couple of months. Hopefully they will eventuate soon.

  37. Briefly (“No time to bludge”) at 1.02 am previous thread

    Glad you got the anti-virals. Not everyone in Australia who needed them has been so fortunate. See:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/covid-antivirals-in-australia-lagevrio-paxlovid/101296462

    As of a week ago NZ began dispensing anti-virals via pharmacies, but that was too late for many:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-06/covid-antiviral-treatments-nz-does-not-require-prescription/101290888

    Last Saturday NZ slipped out of third place in the comparative Covid death prevention marathon, behind Singapore, the clear leader, and Taiwan, and now even behind Australia. On current trends NZ will slip behind S. Korea within a week or so, with S. Korea getting ahead of Australia soon after.

    That’s based on official figures, which are reliable for those countries. Japan looks good on official figures, and it is managing Covid much better now, but there were a lot of excess deaths there in the first wave, so many Japanese suffered from a slow border closure. Vietnam and Thailand look better than Australia on official figures, but most probably are worse due to many uncounted Delta deaths.

  38. Socrates

    “ It turns out the story was false. The civilian areas the Ukrainian areas had used were already evacuated. Worse, as the article above makes clear, AI were warned in advance. They still printed their report.”

    Very disappointing but not unexpected as I noted in a post last week. This is a highly complex issue at the best of times, even more so in a full war situation when an enemy has attacked a nation. Such a lack of research and expertise on the part of Amnesty International in compiling this report.

  39. Looks like we have the Liberals and the Greens trying to prevent first settlers from having a voice in parliament. The Greens once again in good company.

    That aside:

    The Australian article claiming Jacinta Price was bullied by Peter FitzSimons has been taken down, seems it was just another alternate reality talking point. The transcript of the interview remains and it quite interesting.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-are-not-a-separate-entity-we-are-all-just-australians-senator-defends-her-opposition-to-the-voice-20220805-p5b7i9.html

  40. Nationals leader David Littleproud has told Sky News he would go to the government’s Jobs and Skills Summit if invited.
    A nice little self-imposed wedge. 🙂

  41. Pauline Hanson is being reviewed by auDA for ‘cybersquatting’ on domains relating to the Voice to Parliament and the Uluru statement.

    Australia’s web domain administrator auDA is set to review Pauline Hanson’s One Nation cybersquatting on Voice to Parliament and Uluru Statement from the Heart as part of the party’s Vote No campaign.

    Last week, Pauline Hanson announced her intention to spearhead the campaign against the Voice to Parliament during next year’s referendum. In an interview with the Daily Telegraph’s James Morrow, Hanson said that her office had registered 46 website domains in preparation for the campaign.

    Hanson mentioned VoicetoParliament.com.au and Ulurustatement.com.au as two of the domains. Further work by the ABC’s Kevin Nguyen, Ariel Bogle and Michael Workman found 39 relevant domains registered by One Nation including variants on notovoie.com.au, saynotovoice.com.au and more.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/08/10/pauline-hanson-one-nation-reviewed-cybersquatting/

  44. Ven @ #44 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 9:19 am

    ”
    Contrary to impressions, passage of Labor’s climate change bill through the House of Representatives does not signal an era of Labor-Greens co-operation – just the reverse with a new, intense, high-stakes rivalry about to engulf the left of Australian politics, writes Paul Kelly who says Bandt is threatening Labor from the left.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/bandt-threatens-labor-from-the-left/news-story/cf5f50c73eb9a0ea3ab361fd7c24a83b
    ”

    Doh!!!
    It appears Pompous ponderous pontificating Paul Kelly does not read PB. 🙂

    The establishment gets highly agitated when challenged.

    Their sense of entitlement to power is very transparent.

  45. Griff Tue 10.47 pm previous thread

    The CCP Congress will focus overwhelmingly on domestic issues, i.e. on managing the parts of China that the CCP currently controls. Ironically, both the CCP and the leaders of Taiwan still formally say it is part of China. De facto it’s a fiction, but it’s a convenient one. Like Michael Kirby says about the position of the Queen of Australia, it’s not an ideal arrangement but it might be worse than some of the conceivable alternatives (e.g. a beauty contest for a directly elected President, or the minimalist model of 1999 that failed the voters’ test, and which also failed Whitlam’s test in The Truth of the Matter, because that model ignored the elephant in the room, namely the awful “reserve powers”).

    Anyway, on China, it’s all domestic seems to be the message from this overview by an outside critic:

    https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/raising-curtain-chinas-20th-party-congress-mechanics-rules-norms-and-realities-power

    The Chinese leaders are probably no poorer po-faced actors than Putin. Don’t expect them to blush about their mistakes or inconveniences. They are not big gamblers like Putin. Much blustering may occur regarding Ms Pelosi’s antics, but they won’t be stupid enough to invade Taiwan soon. That is my view. It is also the view of Professor Bates Gill, a former head of the Stockholm Peace Research Institute and now at Macquarie Uni. For parts of a recent book by him on Xi’s ambitions see:

    https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Daring_to_Struggle/HCNsEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover

  49. Well its obvious that the federal Coalition think that it is suitable to function as a wrecking ball and pursue a base-only electoral strategy straight from the Trump playbook.

    Whether it works in Australia’s somewhat urbanised demographic environment and under compulsory voting, remains to be seen.

  50. MM

    ‘Whether it works in Australia’s somewhat urbanised demographic environment and under compulsory voting, remains to be seen.’

    We can make some confident predictions off the back of State politics, where the ‘opposition for opposition’s sake’ approach hasn’t worked at all.

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