Essential Research’s fortnightly report continues to not feature voting intention, and its monthly leadership ratings are continuing to not feature Peter Dutton. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 55% in this month’s result, while his disapproval is up four to 28%. Some steam has also gone out of a post-election surge on a monthly national direction question, on which 43% find Australia headed in the right direction, down four, with wrong direction up three to 31%.
In a series of “performance of the Albanese government” questions, there was a 56-44 majority in favour of it having its priorities right, 54-46 majorities for getting things done and being in touch and 52-48 for addressing long-term problems, although a 51-49 majority felt it too idealistic. A series on “support for federal government measures is less good: 60% want the fuel excise cut extended, with only 12% supporting the government’s intention to not do so, 44% support higher JobSeeker payments, with 27% opposed, and 42% want a delay in “stage three income tax cuts, which predominantly benefits higher income earners”, with 25% opposed.
“Awareness of proposed Voice to Parliament” would appear to be fairly low, with 33% saying they had heard nothing of it in the past month and 32% saying hardly anything, compared with 5% for a lot and 29% for a fair amount. With the notion explained, 65% said they were in favour and 35% opposed. Seventy-five per cent supported a parliamentary pledge to “Australia and the Australian people”, with only 15% opting for the Queen. The survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1075.
Also out this week is a post-election survey report from JWS Research, conducted from a sample of 1000 in the two days after the May 21 election. Asked what was most important in deciding their vote, more chose for “the party as a whole” than for “specific policies or issues”, and fewer still for the leaders and candidates, but Coalition voters were most inclined to rate the first of these and Greens voters uniquely favoured the second.
On issue salience, there was a 53-10 majority for economic over environmental issues among Coalition voters, but a 36-29 majority the other way among Labor voters, both sets of numbers being hardly changed from a similar survey after the 2019 election. An exercise in which respondents were asked whether or not the election campaign possessed various qualities also produced results very similar to 2019: 56-16 for important over not important, 39-30 for not interesting over interesting, 38-27 for negative over positive, 42-24 for deceitful over honest, 51-22 for same old stuff over new and different. For whatever reason, impressions were more negative across the board in 2016.
Thirty-six per cent rated the Labor campaign positive and 35% negative, compared with 28% and 44% for the Coalition. From 44% who said they favoured a Labor government, 25% favoured a majority and 19% a minority government; from 33% who favoured a Coalition government, 24% favoured a majority and 9% a majority.
zoomster @ #98 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 11:51 am
What’s the big deal if they did give the Greens/Teal something they didn’t really want to …?
MM
They are just looking silly. Some of their stuff is hard to follow.
Jacinta Price put an argument,. Why does she then pretend Peter FitzSimons bullied her?
IBAC criticizes the Liberals for leaking and they try and claim Labor is at fault.
Why this alternate reality stuff?
BK that image is hilarious 😆
South Australian MP Fraser Ellis has lost a bid to have deception charges against him dismissed. The Yorke Peninsula MP is due to stand trial later this month.
The Liberal-turned-independent is seeking to contest allegations he made 78 fraudulent claims for an accommodation allowance totalling more than $18,000.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/mp-fraser-ellis-to-stand-trial-over-fraudulent-allowance-claims/101317968
Rex
If they did, that would show that the Teals/Greens had actual power.
zoomster @ #105 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:02 pm
So what ..?
poroti says:
Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 11:48 am
“ It turns out the story was false. The civilian areas the Ukrainian areas had used were already evacuated. Worse, as the article above makes clear, AI were warned in advance. They still printed their report.”
Cronus at 11:31 am
“Why would assume that guy knows more than Amnesty International ?”
I’m not entirely clear on what you’re identifying as the issue (which guy?). My concern (I won’t bore everyone with my earlier post days ago whereby Australia did exactly the same think in downtown Dili in East Timor) is that establishing logistics depots in civilian areas under some circumstances (where an enemy attacks your country and you have limited options) is sometimes a necessary evil as those supplies are required close to your troops.
Under perfect conditions, supplies would be established near troops but well away from civilian areas. The problem is where the enemy is attacking civilian areas that require soldiers and supplies to defend those civilians.
It is oversimplified for agencies to simply say that depots are illegally located near civilians thereby constituting breaches of the laws of armed conflict or worse. Analysis needs to be undertaken and verified of the circumstances. My understanding is that civilians had been evacuated from the area and that satellites had established this fact.
The locating of the depots therefore was not, in the grand scheme of things, a contravention and therefore the report did harm rather than good by identifying Ukraine as having contravened established norms.
I say this having had the experience of being a UN observer, having conducted hundreds of investigations and having written daily reports on such issues. Each scenario is ‘situation dependent’ and should be treated as a stand-alone incident and viewed holistically. Mislabeling the scenario and outcome can undermine the process and in this case, the Ukrainian Army.
Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy’s director of communications has quit, less than 48 hours after a new chief of staff was appointed to the office.
Lee Anderson, who held the position as director of communications for the opposition since August last year, quit on Wednesday after what sources say was a disagreement with Nick McGowan, who was announced as Guy’s new chief of staff on Monday afternoon.
________________
Not a great week in LobsterLand!
Stay safe.
Results will start coming in soon for the Minnesota District 1 special election (due to the death of the GOP incumbent). Trump won this area 55-45 in 2020. The GOP won the house seat 49-46 ish (with about 5 to the socialist legalize cannabis party). Not much in the way of noteworthy polling, the two that exist put the GOP up fwiw.
This will be a useful guide to the midterms wrt turnout and comparing to 202o.
Rex
If you don’t care if the Greens/indies have the power to do things, why are you making a thing of it?
WTF? there are TWO legalize canabis parties in this MN1 election. With the House on a knife edge this isnt helpful.
Socrates at 11.19 am, poroti at 11.48 am and Cronus at 11.31 am
P, see the UK story that Socrates linked, showing disagreements within Amnesty about this tragedy.
Socrates is incorrect in saying the Amnesty report helps to “justify Russia shelling Ukrainian civilian areas”. It does not. Don’t overestimate Russian propaganda. Countries that have wavered in this war, or pursued their own policy (e.g. Turkey) have done so because of what they perceive to be their interests, not because of Russian propaganda, which has been a flop outside far right circles in West.
Regarding international humanitarian law, Amnesty clearly take their obligations seriously. They are not in an easy position, which Cronus partly notes. What is clear is that if there ever are cases of war crimes that get to the International Criminal Court, then the Russian defendants will not even try to use the pathetic excuse that “Amnesty said Ukrainian forces were doing wrong, so we were not”. In other words, while it’s a serious worry for Amnesty because it affects their reputation, this will not affect the course of the war in even a minor way, nor would it prevent later war crimes prosecutions.
The Apostasy and the Mutiny will have to be content with taking what they’re given by Labor. The Apostasy will continue their Labor-phobic soap. The Mutiny will extend their campaigns to unseat the Lying Reactionaries. Albo will give them some ammo. Perhaps the Apostasy should be paying Unilever royalties for pirating the Sunlight concept.
zoomster @ #111 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:14 pm
You’re the one making a thing out of it saying ‘there’s no evidence’ Labor is giving the Greens/Teal something they didn’t want to.
People’s Front of Cannabis
Cannabis People’s Front
“Steve777 says:
Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 9:48 am
”No member of the Opposition will attend the jobs summit, according to Ley, who says it’s a stunt.”
Well, they were given the chance.”
The Nationals Littleproud is saying that he wants to attend, but complains that he hasn’t received any invitation. He adds that he represents regional Australians and that regional Australians cannot be excluded from this summit. He seems to be desperately trying to shift the blame onto Albo for not inviting him, but I don’t think that he is criticising Dutton and Ley for saying that the Opposition will not attend the jobs summit, because it’s just a stunt. I remind Littleproud that he is part of the Coalition opposition and he is subject to their disciplinary rules: Obey your leader, and the leader is Dutton!…. But if you disagree with Dutton, then openly rebel and accuse him of irresponsibility for excluding the Coalition from the summit….
You can’t have it both ways, Littleproud!
Discovery Alert: NASA has discovered a new Super Earth
https://www-techexplorist-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.techexplorist.com/discovery-alert-nasa-discovered-new-super-earth/52963/?amp=&_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16600965846789&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.techexplorist.com%2Fdiscovery-alert-nasa-discovered-new-super-earth%2F52963%2F
3D Study of “Gigantic Jet” Provides New Insights into Upward Lightning Bursts
https://newsroom.usra.edu/3d-study-of-gigantic-jet-provides-new-insights-into-upward-lightning-bursts/
C@tmomma @ #96 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 11:48 am
Bit difficult when they do not have a dog
“BK says:
Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 12:11 pm
Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy’s director of communications has quit, less than 48 hours after a new chief of staff was appointed to the office.”…
Yep, they are falling apart… and the clock keeps ticking…. It’s just 108 days left to the Vic state election, and that’s just enough time to think who will replace the Lobster as leader of the Vic Opposition after the election.
MelbourneMammoth @ #99 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 11:52 am
It won’t work, if you read the comments under Chris Uhlmann’s article today. They are generally negative towards the Opposition’s tactics and behaviour. Also, no one believes a strategy of going for the Tradies, Wealthy Retirees (a lot of whom have enlightened views and live in the Teal seats) and Christian Conservatives, will be enough for the Coalition to build a winning formula with.
Cronus at 12:07 pm
It is the claim that everyone was/is evacuated that was the problem. There is plenty of video footage, from the Ukrainian side, which shows that is nonsense, locals jumping up and down about artillery set up among their buildings etc. Not so much in recent times though. Which perhaps reflects that the current fighting is now along the 2nd of the 3 lines of defence and so a lot of civilians likely gone by now.
Rex
No, I made a comment. You then went on and on about how it didn’t matter either way.
If it doesn’t matter either way, why comment?
I think it matters.
laughtong @ #120 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:28 pm
I know. 😉
zoomster @ #98 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 11:51 am
“So far, there’s no evidence that Labor has given the Greens (or indies) anything that Labor didn’t want to give to the Green or indies.”
There absolutely is evidence.
The Greens/Teals secured a huge concession from Labor, that NAIF, Export Finance Australia and Infrastructure Australia* must have emissions reduction embedded as an objective. That was not something Labor wanted.
*And also ARENA and CEFC, but Labor wanted that anyway
Minnesota District 1 looks winnable for the Democrats because the district went Democrat from 2007 to 2019 and only flipped after the retirement of the Democrat.
Wealthy Retirees (a lot of whom have enlightened views and live in the Teal seats)
They also have children, grandchildren, nieces and nephews for whom they want a future where they can thrive…
zoomster @ #124 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:33 pm
So, why does it matter, in your view ?
Rex
I’ve already explained that.
zoomster @ #130 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:38 pm
where ?
VE
I’ll take your word for that!
Still, to come to an agreement so quickly suggests it wasn’t a die in a ditch thing.
Yep.
Just Suppose
2 DAYS AGO
And so I look forward to reading Amnesty International’s damning report on the placement of Russian troops in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine. I’m sure that Amnesty International was granted full access to the Donbas to determine any similarity to their claims about Ukraine. No? No access? Well what a surprise. Not!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/fake-neutrality-amnesty-report-on-ukraine-sparks-furor-resignation-20220807-p5b7x7.html
C@t
They may have ‘enlightened views’ but woe betide anyone poking their hip pocket nerve. Added to them you’ll have all their kids after you. Their hip pocket nerves have a branch called the ‘inheritance nerve’.
Steve777 @ #128 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:36 pm
That is also something the Coalition just don’t seem to get. They believe everyone is as self-centred and selfish as they are.
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 12:36 pm
Wealthy Retirees (a lot of whom have enlightened views and live in the Teal seats)
They also have children, grandchildren, nieces and nephews for whom they want a future where they can thrive…
——————-
That’s why they hate taxes and that’s why the Teals were wise to stay clear of any debate about higher taxes.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/10/essential-research-and-jws-research-post-election-survey/comment-page-2/#comment-3963609
AUDoD contracts seem to be more cost plus for capability/ design to spec rather than cost or price focused, though they do try to use commodity parts more and more
@Zoomster – yeah, you’re right that it wasn’t a die in a ditch thing for Labor. I suspect NAIF is heading for the chopping block anyway.
Export Finance will be having a huge change of focus to counter China, not sure they would have much time to be looking at fossil fuel projects anyway – ports and airports more likely.
I think it was a pretty decent negotiation and outcome. The Labor Bill is hardly significant, so it wouldn’t be fair to ask Labor to give up too much. Australia had a 41% emissions reduction target from state ambition, and this Bill raises it to 43% with a ratchet. The Greens and Teals didn’t give up anything they didn’t want to give in response to the Bill. They haven’t had to commit to or endorse the low ambition target, there’s no new ceiling imposed on ambition. Both the Greens and teals wanted to run a marathon, and Labor helped them do the first 2 kms.
The Bill with amendments was really a win for everyone…
… Except Dutton
Mexicanbeemer @ #127 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:05 pm
Amy Klobuchar wins easily there. But so does Trump.
This special election will be followed by another (midterm election) only a few months away. Perhaps this makes it less interesting – or less clear on what it means. I would imaging the urge to turn out wont be as strong.
“WTF? there are TWO legalize canabis parties in this MN1 election. With the House on a knife edge this isnt helpful.”
And you are surprised that they couldn’t get their shit together?
poroti @ #134 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:11 pm
Yes. The anger will be there. But an inheritance tax cutting in at a high level should calm their nerves – assuming that information cuts through the MSM BS.
As for the uber rich for which an inheritance tax will be noticeable – WGAF? The more they jump up and down the better.
Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ #140 Wednesday, August 10th, 2022 – 12:26 pm
You should be ashamed of your generalisations. So judgie. Pot heads are people too you know.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 12:52 pm
@Zoomster – yeah, you’re right that it wasn’t a die in a ditch thing for Labor. I suspect NAIF is heading for the chopping block anyway.
Export Finance will be having a huge change of focus to counter China, not sure they would have much time to be looking at fossil fuel projects anyway – ports and airports more likely.
I think it was a pretty decent negotiation and outcome. The Labor Bill is hardly significant, so it wouldn’t be fair to ask Labor to give up too much. Australia had a 41% emissions reduction target from state ambition, and this Bill raises it to 43% with a ratchet. The Greens and Teals didn’t give up anything they didn’t want to give in response to the Bill. They haven’t had to commit to or endorse the low ambition target, there’s no new ceiling imposed on ambition. Both the Greens and teals wanted to run a marathon, and Labor helped them do the first 2 kms.
The Bill with amendments was really a win for everyone…
… Except Dutton’
——————————-
And Bandt.
Dutton was forced to vote against 43%. Bandt was forced to vote FOR 43%. Losers.
Albanese is the big winner here.
He won because he saw this coming after being bastardized by the Greens back when he was Deputy Prime Minister and he saw it again and again with ten years of the Greens ‘Same Old, Same Old’ bastardy.
The Teals won because they negotiated in good faith.
BTW, how ARE the Greens going with keeping their promise to reduce Brisbane Airport Noise?
Capital gains tax works better than an inheritance tax lets take the $70 million dollar house listed in Toorak because the owner died sometime ago when the house was worth a lot less so by letting the children keep the house without an inheritance tax has increased the possible capital gains tax take if there was one. Inheritance taxes are easy to avoid and wont improve equality so its a pointless money grab and capital gains tax makes more sense since its already part of the tax system.
Is it true that the Russians have positioned artillery pieces inside a functioning nuclear power plant?
The Rum Corps is nothing if not persistent.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/09/john-barilaro-linked-developer-met-with-then-nsw-minister-eleni-petinos-weeks-before-work-ban-lifted
For those unable to watch the Chinese Ambassador at the Press Club here is my precis – “It’s China’s way or the highway”.
Boerwar at 1:09 pm
Well we do know Ukraine has positioned fully functioning artillery shells in the nuclear power plant.
Dutton: We are not going to the Jobs and Skills Summit.
Ley: Nobody from the Liberals are going to this stunt designed to please the unions.
LittleProud: told SBS:
I believe Labor is failing regional and rural Australia in understanding the unique nature of the requirements for Labor in regional Australia, not just in the agricultural sector but also in terms of skills.
It’s important regional Australia gets a voice, this government … we haven’t had a voice, and I think it’s important we do have a voice at whatever forum is provided.
Littleproud has affirmed he would go if invited. He said:
The leader of the Liberal party gets to determine what the Liberal party does, but on behalf of the National party we’ll make that determination on ourselves.
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 1:15 pm
Boerwar at 1:09 pm
Well we do know Ukraine has positioned fully functioning artillery shells in the nuclear power plant.’
———————————-
So. Is Russia firing artillery located inside a nuclear power plant?