In the absence of anything else to report:
• Former Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner formally retired from parliament on Wednesday, having relinquished the leadership in May in the wake of a heart attack. In contrast to its counterparts in Western Australia, who have still not fired the starter’s gun on a by-election for North West Central, the government has already announced August 20 as the date for the by-election in his Darwin seat in Fannie Bay, which he retained by 9.6% at the 2020 election.
• Labor’s five members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters are Jagajaga MP Kate Thwaites, Hawke MP Sam Rae, Blair MP Shayne Neumann and South Australian Senators Karen Grogan and Marielle Smith, one of whom will be the committee’s chair. There were four opposition members and one from the Greens in the previous parliament, but I’m unclear as to how that will play out this time.
• The report of Operation Watts, the joint inquiry by Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission and Ombudsman into certain Labor state parliamentarians’ branch-stacking activities, offers a wealth of invaluable detail on the hard realities of the operation of modern political parties.
BK says:
Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 6:56 am
Dutton should at least allow a Conscience Vote for Coalition MPs to show their voters that they aren’t monolithically opposed.
___________
C@t
“Some of Dutton’s mob would be really struggling to find one!”
Agreed, I saw no such evidence of a conscience in the past nine years, still looking but not hoping. As with CC, I see the Coalition opposing The Voice as well.
Confessions @ #188 Sunday, July 31st, 2022 – 6:58 am
The problem with them thinking that way is that a minority can think that way but the majority will likely be on the other side of the argument. I mean, can you see voters in the Teal seats, who used to vote Liberal, going back to an antediluvian way of thinking about Indigenous Australians? Especially as the wording of the Amendment to the Constitution explicitly states that Parliament retains the right to make the decisions regarding Indigenous Australians?
C@t:
I think it’s clear from what we’ve seen and heard from the coalition the past couple months that they aren’t going for Teal seats, but rather want to position themselves as the party of the ‘working class’ and will therefore pitch to those outer suburban and regional electorates.
With the referendum
It will be what the mindset of the voter will be
If people made up their minds about the coalition it is irrelevant what Labor/Albanese does , as with the election campaign
I didn’t know this about treatment with COVID-19 Antiviral oral medications:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/30/biden-covid-paxlovid/
“ The saddest statistics of all are the deaths. A total of 157 people died of COVID 19 across Australia on Friday. The pandemic has taken the lives of 11,669 Australians so far.”
How did a total of 157 deaths in 24hr not make headlines, that seems an awful lot to me? I certainly won’t be attending Brisbane’s famed Ekka, a certain superspreader event.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-31/covid-deaths-breaking-records-universal-booster-stop-the-spread/101284428
The Divide in the Liberals over the Voice would follow pretty much the same fault line as that over climate. Haven’t heard from the Nationals yet (that I’ve seen) but I expect that they would oppose it.
Confessions @ #192 Sunday, July 31st, 2022 – 7:10 am
Yes but a Referendum is a universal vote for each State and Territory, so you just have to get a majority voting in favour. Not to mention that, guess what? A large majority of Indigenous people themselves live in Regional and Rural areas. They may not outnumber the bigots but not everyone out there is a bigot that votes for Hanson.
The corrupt media and Lib/nats thought they were on a winner with the so-called Albanese gaffe in week 1 of the election campaign.
But fortunately the voters mind were already decided , and the baseball bats were for the Lib/nats .
Cronus,
I heard on the news the other day that Covid-19 is on track to become Australia’s #1 cause of death.
I think people are just becoming resigned to the fact. As my son says, you gotta die from something. 😐
https://apple.news/A2qIC88PVTKCVgIoHj-j1ow
From the TOL, two years after 2001 Sep 11, Bin Laden family gave UKP1M to one of the king in waiting’s charities
The lib/nats in the senate voted with Hanson’s one nation for Hanson’s bill its ok to be white
C@t:
Apparently no referendum in Australia’s history has succeeded without bipartisan support. Unless the coalition support this one, on the basis of history it is doomed to fail.
The idiot forgets probably the most important part of the equation. What are people getting for their taxes . THAT should be the comparison made.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/30/prince-charles-accepted-1m-from-family-of-osama-bin-laden-report-claims
I understand the Apple News link is problematic
Hi all, long time watcher now ready to comment.
i am hoping for a W.A. style wipeout of the potato crop in 3 years time…
The Prince of Wales accepted a £1 million payment from the family of Osama bin Laden, The Sunday Times can reveal.
Prince Charles secured the money from Bakr bin Laden, the patriarch of the wealthy Saudi family, and his brother Shafiq. Both men are half-brothers of Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda who masterminded the September 11 attacks.
Charles, 73, had a meeting with Bakr, 76, at Clarence House in London on October 30, 2013, two years after Osama bin Laden was killed by US special forces in Pakistan.
The future king agreed to the money despite the initial objections of advisers at Clarence House and the Prince of Wales Charitable Fund (PWCF), where the offering was donated.
According to sources, several of Charles’s advisers, including at least one trustee, pleaded with him in person to return the money.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0b22fbb4-1023-11ed-b7aa-67f5549661eb?shareToken=af24e8020cf5fb6729e6c53a6b4e2b0a
Confessions @ #203 Sunday, July 31st, 2022 – 7:23 am
They ‘want to see more detail’, apparently, before they vote for it in parliament. As Marcia Langton said, read my report, mate! It’s got all the detail you need.
With Pelosi winging her way to eventually Taiwan (?) her plane’s transponder has now been turned off. Given some of the seemingly !!!! language reported coming from China this will provide some handy translation and parsing of what the language actually means and when we need to worry.
Wen-Ti Sung is a political scientist who teaches in the ANU Taiwan Studies Program.
.
Wen-Ti Sung@wentisung
A short thread on China’s #rhetoric on @SpeakerPelosi’s rumored plan to visit Taiwan. So far Beijing’s wording has been far below the threshold of the kinds of words & phrases that China historically used for signaling impending war/brinkmanship. /11:29 pm · 27 Jul 2022·Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/wentisung/status/1552164325506580482?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
On Friday night when the police called back with a report number for the theft and damage at our sporting park pavilion we got talking about our footy team. The policeman said the theft might spark our team up for a good win the next day. I told him that the way our team had been going for the last five years, the theft of the Hope Diamond wouldn’t get them up!
I was right – Gumeracha beat us 29-26 to 1-3!
(And midway through typing this I got a call to say the public toilets we operate are all backed up.)
Shit!
Confessions at 7.23 am
It is not so simple, because each referendum has its own context. So any particular comparison is a bit artificial, which means you need to assess it carefully.
Perhaps the most interesting comparison is with Menzies’ attempt to ban Communists via the Constitution in 1951. This was Doc Evatt’s finest hour, according to Michael Kirby, who was 12 at the time and had a relative who was a Communist so was keenly interested in it.
Evatt won the referendum campaign with his tireless efforts, despite one poll that showed a big majority (73%) three months ahead of vote.
Press was overwhelmingly in favour of Menzies’ Cold War mania, with only one paper (Melbourne Argus) opposed.
Result was very close. Clear majority (55%) in Qld and WA. Very slight majority in Tassie. NSW and SA voted 47% Yes, with Victoria just under 49%. Margin in Victoria was about 23,500 votes.
In short, in a peculiar context a strong opposition only just defeated Menzies. Dutton is not Doc Evatt’s bootlace, nor as effective a naysayer as Reith.
BK at 7:56 am
Have you considered regrassing your club grounds with Four Leaf Clover ?
Confessions
Shit indeed!
Poroti
The frosts have killed it all.
On historical referendum precedents:
– there hasn’t been a referendum since 1999
– none held in the internet age
– none held in the social media age
The Marriage Equality plebiscite is the only recent precedent, and the Yes vote romped in.
Dr Doolittle
Evatt over performed, he only had to get one state to vote no.
Your story underlines how easy it is to get a no.
It makes perfect sense to point to the historical difficulty in passing Federal referendums. It’s more than 20 years since we had one though and more than 50 years since the (overwhelmingly successful) referendum relating to indigenous Australians. Of course in that case it had bipartisan support.
I have no doubt it will be challenging to get a majority of votes in a majority of States but I’m not 100% convinced it’s dead on arrival if the coalition advocate a No vote.
There’s nothing like the anti-communist hysteria of the 1950s around the proposal for an indigenous voice. By the time of the vote, any opposition to it will appear pathetic, no matter who is saying it. A bit like the same sex marriage plebiscite.
A reminder of the majority for Marriage Equality..
Thanks for the roundup BK. As you say, Mark Kenny is right. It is ridiculous to say we cannot comment on the misdeeds of the previous government. I suspect many of the worst have still not yet come to light.
Once a Federal ICAC and whistleblower legislation is in place, does anyone not think more evidence of corruption will not come to light?
To get a “No” vote you just need to create fear, confusion and doubt among low-information / apathetic voters. These voters, combined with those who are opposed by conviction, could well be enough to sink it.
I call to mind a long-forgotten proposal to recognise local government in the Constitution. It was to be held in conjunction with the 2013 Federal election. It actually had bipartisan support. However, the IPA and some right-wing Coalition figures raised “concerns” which seemed totally spurious to me. The real reason was probably an objection to what was seen as an extension of Federal power. The objectors’ voices were very loud, even with the din of all the other crap going on at the time. The Coalition seemed to be crab-walking away. In the end, Kevin Rudd decided not to bother.
Regarding the Voice to parliament and the indications of LNP opposition, it is disappointing to say the least.
As long as a clear majority of Aboriginal people support it, it is worth doing. Thirty years on from Mabo, welfare of first nation people is hardly a triumph.
As with the plebiscite I believe the No stance will come back to bite those who oppose it.
” As you say, Mark Kenny is right. It is ridiculous to say we cannot comment on the misdeeds of the previous government. ”
The previous Government spent nearly nine years doing little but go on about the alleged misdeeds of the one before, blaming them for everything that went wrong, even Robodebt for God’s sake. They accepted responsibility for nothing. They now seem to be gearing up to blame the results of their failings on the new Government.
I say go for it.
To get a “No” vote you just need to create fear, confusion and doubt among low-information / apathetic voters. These voters, combined with those who are opposed by conviction, could well be enough to sink it.
The ‘NO’ vote against SSM failed despite a concerted effort against it and a government that, in a passive aggressive way, didn’t support it but it prevailed anyway. All hop is not lost. Don’t give up hope too soon. Tim Gartrell, the architect of the SSM ‘Yes’ vote, is the momentum behind this referendum. I told you as soon as Albanese took over the leadership of the FPLP that Tim Gartrell was the brains trust. Success was theirs. No one believed me after 2019, they just thought that the Coalition + the media were unstoppable. mundo was convinced Labor would lose again. And look where they are today. mundo had to eat his words and Tim Gartrell is Prime Minister Albanese’s Chief of Staff.
Don’t give up hope!
Confessions at 7.10 am
You say, based on assessment of public statements, that the Libs “aren’t going for Teal seats”.
Could you please get one of those cheap compassion-lite cards from the newsagent, and write that assessment on it in a dramatic way, and send it to J.W. Howard c/- Pt Wolstoncroft Post Office, NSW 2259.
You could put either something like “commiserations” or just, “the writing’s on the wall, ain’t it, John, wouldn’t you agree?”
sprocket_ gets it.
#weatheronPB
With cold ears, collar up,
I watch the pale grey careless lumps,
crowding out the struggling sun.
Nothing to see here … move along …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe
…
I expect the Budget will contain a fair bit of new policy on improving the position of indigenous people as well, to demonstrate that the country can indeed “walk and chew gum”, so the “practical measures rather than symbolism” argument will not hold water .
Chores are all done, time to settle in to Insiders. Nice to see an Australian Prime Minister present for an interview.
I hope I can go the distance, given Stan Grant^x will be dominating the less than stellar panel.
Vale Archie Roach. A great Australian.
WB from title of thread
—————————
offers a wealth of invaluable detail on the hard realities of the operation of modern political parties.
————————————
I would be interested to hear your view on what these hard realities mean for democracy and governance and, if necessary, what can be done to improve it.
I wish Albo well on Insiders this morning. He has already achieved a lot in two months.
In an era of tasteless, soulless television, I have been listening a lot to several podcasts lately. One I would particularly recommend is the Revolutions Podcast by Mike Duncan. This is detailed, unbiased history, with Duncan having the gift of being an excellent summariser with a mild dry sense of humor. I have learnt plenty from every series I have listened to.
The final series is on the Russian revolution, starting from the first revolts against the Tsars to the final dictatorship of the Bolsheviks that was the Soviet state. This is a 100 part series each 30+ minutes long. I started listening to it long before the Ukraine invasion made understanding Soviet Russia relevant again. The revolution is described in all its idealism, folly and tragedy, quite unbiased from my perspective, with the flaws of the Tsars and Whites equally reported.
It explains a lot about how we ended up with Putin, and what he and the KGB are really like. They were like a mafia running a state from the days of the Cheka on.
https://www.podchaser.com/lists/russian-revolution-revolutions-podcast-by-mike-duncan-107a9C68D0
Chores are all done, coffee made, in comfy chair by the fire and time to settle in to read bludgers views on Insiders.
Yes Jan 6, some of us will take one for the PB team!
Frednk @ #326 Sunday, July 31st, 2022 – 8:12 am
How so? A referendum needs a majority in at least 4 states to pass. If 5 states had voted yes with only one voting no, then the amendment to the Constitution would have passed.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Corelogic house prices for July:
Much as expected – a gentle decline:
5 cities -1.4%
Adelaide +0.4%
Perth +0.2%
Brisbane -0.9%
Melbourne -1.5%
Sydney -2.2%
SSM debate is gonna b v diff to voice debate. For one, there is no possible religious based opposition to this.
I have a lot more than hope. I fully expect the nation to get behind this – the weasels in the LNP will know this and merely whistle to the dogs who would never vote for it anyway.
Must have been a challenge to address Sir George Rich and Sir Hayden Starke on the High Court in their mid 80s and late 70s (a 1940s mid 80s and late 70s) about Bank nationalisation, planes and commies.