In the absence of anything else to report:
• Former Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner formally retired from parliament on Wednesday, having relinquished the leadership in May in the wake of a heart attack. In contrast to its counterparts in Western Australia, who have still not fired the starter’s gun on a by-election for North West Central, the government has already announced August 20 as the date for the by-election in his Darwin seat in Fannie Bay, which he retained by 9.6% at the 2020 election.
• Labor’s five members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters are Jagajaga MP Kate Thwaites, Hawke MP Sam Rae, Blair MP Shayne Neumann and South Australian Senators Karen Grogan and Marielle Smith, one of whom will be the committee’s chair. There were four opposition members and one from the Greens in the previous parliament, but I’m unclear as to how that will play out this time.
• The report of Operation Watts, the joint inquiry by Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission and Ombudsman into certain Labor state parliamentarians’ branch-stacking activities, offers a wealth of invaluable detail on the hard realities of the operation of modern political parties.
“ Chalmers delivers bad economic news well, but can he hold the public’s trust?”
Actually, I think the single biggest difference between Chalmers and the ALP and Their predecessors is trust. The transparency and honesty and competence shown so far stands in stark contrast with the past nine years.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chalmers-delivers-bad-economic-news-well-but-can-he-hold-the-public-s-trust-20220729-p5b5lj.html
Another arrogant, entitled government looks to be coming to an end.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-returns-home-to-a-disintegrating-government-and-despairing-colleagues-20220729-p5b5t1.html
Lol Steelydan and Taylormade
Insiders Sunday, 31 Jul
David Speers is at Garma with Bridget Brennan, Stan Grant and Lorena Allam to discuss the first week of Parliament, inflation, the economic outlook and an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. David interviews PM Anthony Albanese.
Guest : Anthony Albanese – Prime Minister (garma Festival)
If these findings are any guide, potential Teal wins in the Victorian state election will make it more, not less, difficult for the Liberals to get anywhere near government. I can’t see Teals lining up to support a minority government that would include the culture warrior crazies in the Liberal “religious” right. Of the 5 seats mentioned only Hawthorn is currently held by the ALP:
“The survey shows progressive independent candidates would receive strong support in Caulfield, Kew, Sandringham, Hawthorn and Brighton, despite no Climate 200-backed challengers being announced in those seats”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/polling-shows-gen-teal-wave-could-wash-over-victorian-election-20220729-p5b5pu.html
If the federal election and so called baseball bats is any indication in Victoria
The Lib/nats would be getting afraid
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Laura Tingle describes how Labor is getting down to business, trying to shake off the modi operandi that have dominated our politics for a decade.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-30/labor-first-parliament-week-shakes-off-decade-of-policies-/101283898
There has been a solid start to 47th parliament, but telltale signs of bad behaviour ahead, says Lian Phelan.
https://amp.smh.com.au/national/solid-start-to-47th-parliament-but-telltale-signs-of-bad-behaviour-ahead-20220729-p5b5mw.html
The ministerial statement delivered by Chalmers was the brutal realism that ended the opening and symbolic week of parliament for the new Albanese government. The welcome diversity of the new parliament cannot conceal the truth – this will be an old-fashioned economic struggle overlaid by savage politics, writes Paul Kelly.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/labor-locked-in-an-economic-struggle-overlaid-by-savage-politics/news-story/ed634a27651f145a16a8d95d296aa673
Doug Dingwall describes how the Coalition is catching a harsh glimpse of the slog ahead as Labor pummels its legacy.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7838662/coalition-catches-a-harsh-glimpse-of-slog-ahead-as-labor-pummels-its-legacy/?cs=27845
The new government is taking the reins, placing climate and the economy firmly on the agenda in the first week of parliament. Meanwhile, the Coalition is adjusting to life out of power, writes Tom McIlroy.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/parliament-a-house-divided-as-labor-gets-to-work-20220728-p5b58n
Patricia Karvelas writes that in years to come, Albanese’s speech to Garma will be another of the key moments reflected on and taught in our long march towards reconciliation and justice.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-30/albanese-garma-festival-speech-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/101283310
James Massola tells us that Anthony Albanese will propose this question be put to all Australians: “Do you support an alteration to the Constitution that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice?”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-are-seeking-a-momentous-change-albanese-reveals-voice-referendum-question-20220729-p5b5l4.html
A draft of Anthony Albanese’s Garma speech reveals he hopes to legislate the Voice by adding three lines to the constitution but will not require that the parliament consult it, explains Karen Middleton.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/30/hand-outstretched-albanese-proposes-way-forward-voice
A broken Voice is no option writes Peter Hartcher who says this is Australia’s moment to unite or fail. He concludes his contribution with, “There is tantalising possibility and ruinous risk. The challenge for Albanese, having launched it, is to advance it constructively. The challenge for Dutton, having opened the possibility for it, is to manage Coalition divisions intelligently. If this effort fails, no government will attempt it again for a very, very long time.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-broken-voice-is-no-option-australia-s-moment-to-unite-or-fail-20220729-p5b5nz.html
George Megalogenis explains why the Coalition risks a backlash if it breaks the Voice. He writes that Albanese believes a Voice to parliament is right thing to do, and the question for Dutton is whether he is willing to risk his leadership when the nation may not be in the mood for another white male politician who wants to defend the status quo.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-the-coalition-risks-a-backlash-if-it-breaks-the-voice-20220729-p5b5nr.html
More than any other figure in our democracy, a prime minister can influence the direction of the nation. Anthony Albanese knows it, and he is not allowing the most difficult economic and strategic circumstance in more than three decades to deter him from forging new pathways, says Paul Bongiorno.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/07/30/putting-statement-action
The SMH editorial declares that the Indigenous Voice deserves bipartisan support, saying that, if Dutton chooses to oppose a Voice on the pretext it is not a total solution to all the problems of the Indigenous community, it will be a fateful decision both for the country and for his party.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/indigenous-voice-deserves-bipartisan-support-20220729-p5b5ss.html
Peter van Onselen writes that unless Peter Dutton confronts cheap populism and cultural tropes he won’t succeed in opposition. Even if he finds a way to wrest back power, he certainly won’t lead a successful Coalition government without changes. PvO points out that “Right-wing commentators only need tens of thousands of Australians to join their resistance to make a living. The Liberal Party needs millions of votes to be competitive in a two-party system. The Foxification of the Republican Party in the US is not a pathway that Australia’s conservative parties can afford to follow. We have compulsory voting.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/narrow-path-wont-lead-the-liberals-anywhere/news-story/76d7fffc220d5bc53569b54798589030
Australians are, on average, the fourth-richest people in the world, but before we start celebrating our luck or cleverness, John Hewson tells us we should be sobered by The Smith Family’s statement in its most disturbing TV advertising, that one in six of our children and young people are growing up in poverty. He implores the business sector to move on from its predominant focus on maximising shareholder value … business needs to consider its role in relation to all stakeholders, especially clients, employees and the community.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/07/30/we-are-ignoring-inequality-the-land-the-fair-go
Katrina Grace Kelly writes that when the electorate rejected the Coalition at the election, they rejected more than a prime minister and his government; they rejected the direction our politics had been heading in. She says Australians rejected divisive, hyper-partisan dialogue, toxic and inflammatory rhetoric and activism disguised as reporting and analysis.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/american-lesson-in-the-dangers-of-political-tribalism/news-story/fc20777a5034b497a6e4ce14de898f8e
Parnell Palme McGuinness, whose articles I tend to avoid, reckons Jim Chalmers is the kind of treasurer the Liberals have longed for.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chalmers-the-kind-of-treasurer-the-liberals-longed-for-20220729-p5b5ns.html
Jim Chalmers is a storyteller, but will Australians want to listen to a grim economic forecast wonders Katherine Murphy who says he doesn’t have the option of taking himself off-stage and practising somewhere in private. He has to learn how to do this job in front of us.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/jul/30/jim-chalmers-is-a-storyteller-but-will-australians-want-to-listen-to-a-grim-economic-forecast
John Kehoe refers to a new report that says a federal land tax of 0.1 per cent imposed annually on mainly wealthier and older property owners would be the best way to repay about $500 billion of government debt accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/tax-landowners-to-repay-covid-19-debt-anu-study-says-20220729-p5b5kg
“Perrottet returns home to a disintegrating government and despairing colleagues”, writes Alexandra Smith who tells us who we can expect to see fronting up the ongoing inquiry.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-returns-home-to-a-disintegrating-government-and-despairing-colleagues-20220729-p5b5t1.html
And on his last day in India Perrottet was forced to address allegations his SafeWork minister Eleni Petinos had a history of bullying and harassing staff in her office.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-defends-minister-accused-of-bullying-as-damaging-trade-saga-rolls-on-20220729-p5b5no.html
Victoria’s Labor government may have avoided a deeper investigation into the ‘extensive misconduct’ exposed by Operation Watts, but the damage to the party from its factional disputes can no longer be ignored, writes Dennis Glover who says it’s time for Labor to dismantle its factions.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/30/its-time-labor-dismantle-its-factions
Katina Curtis and Shane Wright tell us that former deputy prime minister and Nationals leader Michael McCormack on Friday said he and fellow ministers had followed a merit-based approach to allocating money under the $1.15 billion Building Better Regions Fund. But he noted there was a “subjective” element to the program to ensure it was not just handed out on the advice of “pointy-shoed and faceless bureaucrats”. What a dill – along with the hopeless Bridget McKenzie and ridiculous Barnaby Joyce.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mccormack-proud-of-regional-money-carve-up-despite-damning-audit-20220729-p5b5q2.html
Michael Pascoe declares that the political coroner has found the Coalition to be deeply and brazenly corrupt. Kapow!
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/07/30/coalition-corrupt-anao-report/
Meanwhile, Infrastructure Minister Catherine King has vowed to overhaul a regional grants program in the wake of the scathing auditor-general report.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/07/29/regional-grants-given-against-advice/
We must understand what we got wrong in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, so we don’t compound our errors, writes Ross Gittins who says what we’ve done wrong is to treat the pandemic as though it’s a problem with the demand (or spending) side of the economy, when it’s always been a problem with the supply (or production) side.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/we-re-struggling-with-inflation-because-we-misread-the-pandemic-20220728-p5b5ic.html
Quarterly inflation could be going backwards by late next year as petrol prices fall and supply chain pressures ease, enabling the RBA to avoid being too aggressive on interest rate rises, explains John Kehoe.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/inflation-can-turn-negative-in-2023-20220729-p5b5nh
Josh Butler reports that the aged care sector says the federal government has underestimated the number of registered nurses required to fulfil a key election promise of providing 24-hour coverage to all aged care homes. It also has said it was vital any potential penalties around not meeting the 24/7 nursing requirement did not lead to the closure of aged care homes in rural and regional areas, and said limited exemptions would be necessary.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/30/aged-care-experts-say-government-underestimates-number-of-nurses-required-for-24-hour-support
Surveys commissioned by the funding vehicle that backed successful federal election candidates shows voters in five key seats could be swayed by independents, report Paul Sakkal and Annika Smethurst.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/polling-shows-gen-teal-wave-could-wash-over-victorian-election-20220729-p5b5pu.html
Miki Perkins reports that Latrobe Valley residents have asked the new federal environment minister to scrutinise a proposal to flood the enormous Hazelwood coal mine to make a lake, citing concerns about future water availability.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/plibersek-urged-to-scrutinise-victorian-coal-mine-pit-lake-plan-20220727-p5b52s.html
A judge has warned parliament that there are not enough powers to deter the CFMEU’s lawless behaviour after fining the union the maximum possible penalty for “disgusting” homophobic slurs and abuse on building sites.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/judge-says-cfmeu-considers-maximum-fines-chump-change-20220729-p5b5s7
Heather McNeill and Holly Thomson explain how a notorious chain of islands, a seal and ‘the worst butt-dial in history’ foiled a $1 billion drug run.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-a-notorious-chain-of-islands-a-seal-and-the-worst-butt-dial-in-history-foiled-a-1-billion-drug-run-20220727-p5b55q.html
The international nurses’ union says Australia needs to train its own nurses instead of poaching from overseas, as a Filipino academic warned her country was also running short amid a recruitment spree by wealthy nations, reports Dana Daniel.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/train-your-own-nurses-australia-told-amid-global-shortage-20220725-p5b4b2.html
Labor had the chance to achieve reforms to aged care before the election but opted to wait and claim credit for the changes once in government, writes Karen Middleton who is concerned that we are still waiting for meaningful reform.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/30/why-are-we-still-waiting-aged-care-reform
Mining giant Rio Tinto has backed the federal government’s commitment to a 43 per cent emissions cut by 2030, saying it delivers the support industry needs to continue investing aggressively in decarbonising local operations, report Mike Foley and Nick Toscano.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-climate-target-will-help-drive-businesses-green-power-shift-rio-tinto-20220728-p5b5ab.html
In quite a long article, Greg Sheridan lays out four fundamental, unacknowledged realities underlying our energy, climate change and economic situation. He reckons Albanese is the only one who has a grip on reality in Labor’s inner sanctum.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/trapped-in-a-climate-fantasy-we-actually-need-coal-and-gas/news-story/fcb3e14da53f8a232e1c56ce75b6256a
In an interview with The Saturday Paper’s Mike Seccombe, Greens leader Adam Bandt details his approach to climate negotiations with Labor and the various forms in which they could succeed.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/30/climate-inside-the-greens-four-point-strategy
Labor’s commitment to reduce Australia’s emissions 43% by 2030 is hotly debated. It is important that we understand what that 43% means; what it includes; and, crucially, what it excludes, explains Richard Barnes.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-maths-of-43-percent/
Ben Roberts-Smith’s fate in the hands of one man, judge Anthony Besanko, write Deborah Snow and Michaela Whitbourn who have been following the long trial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-s-fate-in-the-hands-of-one-man-20220728-p5b5dm.html
As a homelessness crisis unfolds around the country, the Western Australian government has undertaken to review tenancy laws to finally remove ‘no grounds’ rental evictions, explains Jesse Noakes.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/health/2022/07/30/the-deadly-consequences-rental-evictions-wa
Associate professor of education Nicole Mockler argues that print media portrayal of teachers doesn’t help recruitment.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/survey-print-media-portrayal-of-teachers-doesn-t-help-recruitment-20220726-p5b4r2.html
Here’s Amanda Reade’s weekly media roundup in which she had to report on the last Neighbours episode before getting on the Chris Kenny’s flop exposé on the ABC.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jul/29/neighbours-finale-a-tv-ratings-jackpot-as-ten-farewells-ramsay-street-in-last-episode
As figures show more than one in ten Australians do not have access to adequate food, climate change has made global famine a serious threat, writes Esther Linder who says Australia is not prepared for it.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2022/07/30/australia-not-prepared-climate-related-food-crisis
Should we be worried about the spread of monkeypox? Mike Toole and Raina MacIntyre give us the drum.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/should-we-be-worried-about-the-spread-of-monkeypox-20220729-p5b5lu.html
Crime reporter John Silvester gives us Mr Clean: The story of an international money launderer.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/mr-clean-the-story-of-an-international-money-launderer-20220727-p5b53i.html
More than 75,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war in Ukraine, according to new classified US intelligence, a loss equivalent to almost the entire British army.
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russia-loses-half-of-its-troops-in-deadly-war-20220729-p5b5pn
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Alan Moir
Matt Golding
Fiona Katauskas
Jon Kudelka
Jim Pavlidis
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Matt Davidson
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Thanks so much BK
Much appreciation BK!!
Good morning and thank you, BK.
Feeling a bit crusty this morning, having gone to pick up my inebriated son from his best mate’s birthday party at midnight last night. Didn’t get home till 1am. Yoiks! 😯
A chunk of charred material reportedly left over from the reentry of a SpaceX spacecraft was found in the middle of a sheep paddock near Dalgety; the discovery followed a “bang” heard by witnesses July 9 local time in the southeast of the country.
SpaceX has not yet confirmed if the piece was a part of its Crew-1 Dragon spacecraft that splashed down successfully on May 2, 2021. That said, long-time space debris tracker Jonathan McDowell said on Twitter (opens in new tab) Friday (July 29) that Dalgety was in fact underneath the projected re-entry pathway of an unpressurized “trunk” piece of Dragon, jettisoned before re-entry.
McDowell added that the photos suggest that the debris came from one of the trunk fins. These fins sit on the circumference of the rocket to assist with aerodynamics during the launch phase of the mission.
https://www.space.com/spacex-debris-fall-australia-crew-1-dragon-capsule
#weatheronPB
Dull smudges mar blue sky.
Noisy chittering birds dare any and all.
Their breaths puff into air.
The state of Victoria:
Well this is interesting a poll. Unreported elsewhere.
The poll-bludger guesses where 52%,53%,54%(mine).
Roy Morgan poll result is 59.5% to the ALP.
A further swing to Labor of 2%.
A complete wipe-out for the Liberals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaIKLAQsYpw
Very fresh morning. Freezing temperatures.
Upside. Sunny and blue skies
WeatheronPB#
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Econmic commentary is so misguided – gloomy, we’re ruined, tough times.
Here’s the outlook: GDP eases: 3.75% to 3% to 2%: Perfect as RBA tackles inflation.
Inflation: 7.75% to 3.5% to 2.75%.
Unemployment 3.5 – 4%. Great!
Real wages start rising.
Fantastic economic numbers.
Cronus @ 6:37
“Actually, I think the single biggest difference between Chalmers and the ALP and Their predecessors is trust. The transparency and honesty and competence shown so far stands in stark contrast with the past nine years.”
Exactly. The earnest competency we’ve seen to date highlights the abject characters they’ve replaced. I hope the regular truth telling will have become an ingrained habit when the truth also includes their mistakes and not just their predecessors’ mistakes.
‘It’s beyond belief that Albanese wants to run a ‘yes-no’ referendum question on the Voice. ‘
There’s been a couple of comments which seem to indicate that the poster has no idea how referendums work.
It has to be a yes/no question.
What happens is that the proposed amendment – that is, the exact wording which it is proposed to insert into the Constitution – is what’s voted on. Voters get to say ‘Yes, we’re happy with that amendment’ or ‘No, we’re not.”
Other processes can be run which lead up to this, of course.
‘“The survey shows progressive independent candidates would receive strong support in Caulfield, Kew, Sandringham, Hawthorn and Brighton, despite no Climate 200-backed challengers being announced in those seats”
If you can say how you’re going to vote without knowing who the candidate is, what you’re voting for is a party….
China has fired its most direct warning yet amid reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could visit Taiwan on Friday, saying that if the House Speaker’s plane was escorted by American fighter planes, I would not would rule out the possibility of knocking them down.
“If US warplanes escort Pelosi’s plane to Taiwan, that is an invasion.” The PLA has the authority to forcibly destroy Pelosi’s plane and US warplanes, including warning fire and tactical interference. If they are not effective, leave them,” Hu Sijin, a Global Times commentator linked to the state of China, wrote on Twitter.
Earlier, China warned the US not to cross a “red line” by issuing not-so-subtle warnings to a spokesperson, which China considers the third member of the US government, to visit Taiwan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Zhao Lijian said at a briefing on Friday that the United States must be prepared to “bear all the consequences” if Pelosi chooses Taiwan.
https://globalhappenings.com/top-global-news/237316.html
OK, a sort of apology.
What people are actually voting on are the three proposed alterations. They have no choice, under the Constitution, to do anything other than vote yes or no.
Yes, it sucks, but that’s why our system of referendums is stupid, and one I’d like a referendum on!
Bulleen, a seat of unit subdivisions, under the effective control of a family which diversified into property development and now second generation and which family anoints the local member uncontested since the very first member they moved out, is also on the radar as a seat lost to the Liberal Party
Bear in mind the polling now made public shows the Liberal primary vote across its blue ribbon constituency with a 3 in front of it
So unable to retain (or win Hawthorn)
On a State wide basis, the Liberal primary vote just sneaks a 3 in front of it, it seems on the way to 2
The reasons are leadership, a leadership which has no other substantial issue than to attack the Labor infrastructure spend, a spend that will sustain future generations paying heed as it does to both roads and public transport, and regurgitate (“Red shirts” now not only exposed as Liberal Party electioneering false allegations but comprehensively put to bed by the Ombudsman Report and the “East/West link saga which was the focus of the 2014 election where a one term Liberal government was defeated on the issue) and otherwise looks to imitate Labor to the chagrin variously of the old guard, the dominant bible groups and the decaying IPA (bearing in mind the Cormack Courr proceedings were because the Cormack Directors also donated to the Liberal Democrats and Family First – the name Liberal Democrats now unable to be used after Liberal Party submissions)
Labor is not under such threat, because it is a progressive party on all substantive issues and responsibly progressive across society, the attack coming from the Greens and irresponsible across society)
The Liberal Party will form a rump Party, situate rural areas and bible group dominated suburbs where they congregate because their “Church” is physically located there, so particular outer suburbs because that is where they have bought their land and built their monstrous buildings
Labor holds a majority of 18 seats in Victoria – and the question will be who it holds this majority over
The Parliament may well reflect the Federal Lower House with an absolutely dominant government and Independent appearance – and a few Liberals
And, post the Howard years, this was always coming
Across every issue which has sustained the Liberal Party post the influence of Howard (including his rise to the worst treasurer legislating a freeze of wages and salaries in the face of double digit unemployment, double digit inflation.and double digit interest rates when he was treasurer)
Austerity delivering confidence and that confidence trickling down plus the most effective form of regulation being self regulation were not credible across society and never will be
And the price is not only there to be seen across society but is being repudiated, hence the so called Teals and the decimation of the so called Liberal Party
I think the voice is a very good idea, a very sensible way forward.
Without the support of all parties the referendum won’t get up. As things stand both the Greens and the Liberals have joined hands as they so often do and will oppose it. Unfortunate, but that is the way it is.
Here we go again
There is a real possibility that in Victoria the Teals could outnumber the Coalition.
Although I think the various organisations are leaving their run a bit late, the utter utter lack of anything that is the Victorian Coalition gives voters in Coalition held seats little other choice.
IF the Teals outnumber the Coalition, it’s hard to see them not morphing into a party.
It will be interesting if it happens, because becoming a party and the official Opposition would give them the power and resources to actually do things.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. Chalmers has deservedly gotten good reviews for his work in parliament this week. Leak’s cartoon on him is ironically self defeating but only goes to prove the LNP now see him as a threat.
On shipbuilding the UK Defence Chief confirmed the RN will be stationing RN SSNs in Australia regularly with RAN crew getting experience aboard. To me this all but confirms the RAN will be building the UK design, which is the better choice for us relative to the US IMO. Dutton’s talk is confirmed as nonsense. Radikin also reassures everything is fine on the frigates, which is less convincing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-30/british-defence-chief-tony-radakin-russia-china-aukus/101282744
Indonesia is repeating Chinese talking points on AUKUS, in spite of Labor’s international charm offensive. None of this actually means anything in terms of stopping the project going ahead.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/indonesia-aukus-deal-criticism-at-united-nations/101282786
Here we go again @8:39
” the most effective form of regulation being self regulation were not credible across society”
The attitude is not restricted to commercial activities. In health our current response to covid is to “please do the right thing”, which in Brisbane limits us to handing out free masks at the Ekka, and hoping. We’re pandering to the loons. (Perhaps it is “economics”.)
On Teals. Since the name was coined to lump together like minded “Climate 200” independents who insist they are “not a party” the amusing aspect for me has been the analogy of the duck. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it’s a duck. Teals being ducks. 🙂
Late Riser
I agree on regulation. Too much and too little are both bad. We are at the later extreme.
I wonder how our road safety efforts would have gone over the past two decades if our approach to seat belts and drink driving had been “encourage” not “enforce”? It might have saved Tim Smith’s political career, but not many lives.
”
Confessionssays:
Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 6:42 am
Another arrogant, entitled government looks to be coming to an end.
Premier Dominic Perrottet will land back in Sydney on Saturday to despairing colleagues who are watching the government slowly disintegrate. No positive tales of his first trade mission as premier, but genuine fears that the Coalition is in free fall and nothing is being done to stop it.
The John Barilaro US trade appointment fiasco has now dragged on for a ridiculous amount of time and is only gathering pace. A clearly frustrated Perrottet keeps pointing to the independent review he commissioned, which he is hoping will bring an end to the sorry saga. That is unlikely.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-returns-home-to-a-disintegrating-government-and-despairing-colleagues-20220729-p5b5t1.html
”
Confessions
I posted during the last couple of days and I will post it again.
The NSW LNP leadership, no less, like Gladys B, DoPe, Barilaro and Stuart Ayres have given their political scalps on a shining silver platter to Chris Minns and NSW Labor team.
Instead of wearing those political scalps on his political cowboy belt, Minns looks at those scalps in bewilderment and says nah, I will not ask for their resignations but let them do whatever they want.
It is as if Minns doesn’t want to win next NSW State election.
Ven what good does their resignation do? Apart from say DoPE. Isn’t it best to keep them in the spotlight, keep highlighting that DoPe refuses to move on them and therefore actively supports the corruption? It is the job of the Govt not the opposition. Let them hang themselves? Removing Ayres removes the story exactly what the Libs want. Why would Labor want that?
Sometimes it’s best to play the long game instead of short term ‘wins’ that have the effect of just removing the story and the issue.
Socrates,
Laws on seat belts and drink driving were the things I was thinking of as well. After a few years habits become ingrained, unconscious. The problem, I think, is to get the regulation right. In the case of seat belts and drink driving it took a few years to sort out the balance.
In a previous life my work intersected mine safety regulations. Prescriptive regulations are simple to understand and enforce, but can never account for the diversity of situations that are encountered. Sometimes they make things worse. So people resent them, their underlying purpose is lost, regulations are ignored, and when people are hurt it becomes an exercise in blame. There was an effort underway to shift the burden off regulations and onto safety outcomes, for instance to a process where every lost time incident (“accidents” don’t happen) incurred a steadily heavier penalty. I didn’t stick around so I don’t know how it was resolved, but it made me realise that safety regulations are complicated.
Late Riser @ #26 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 9:18 am
Both Labor and Liberals are funded by the same fossil fuel companies, to the same amounts. Does that mean that they are both like minded members of the one “party”?
Oh, wait … I think I see your point now … 🙂
Quack! 🙂
Zoom has posted the words, how it will look… Uluru Statement from the Heart in full.
It seems to me that this version of the “Voice” is no great advance on the National Aboriginal Consultative Council established 50 years ago and abandoned in chaos 10 years later. It is guaranteed by the constitution (and therefore another referendum will be required if it fails) and it can make representation to the parliament, when NACC could only make representations to the executive but it remains consultative and advisory.
I was hoping for the NZ model of Aboriginal seats.
Late Riser at 9.14 am
Did you see comment re Qld Covid management at 7.23 pm on previous open thread?
NYT reports that the Biden administration is currently planning the next rounds of vaccinations to prepare for the expected next winter wave.
The first two elements of the Voices to Parliament Question merely draw the intent. How that intent is put into practice is entirely up to the third element.
It’s hard to see this as anything more than symbolic. It marks a spot on the wall of parliament for a door of some undetermined size and shape to be built. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice is whatever parliament wants it to be.
How decades of attacks on teachers by RW politicians, media and assorted ‘culture warriors’ have resulted in people leaving the profession and not choosing teaching as a career.
The author, Nicole Mockler, associate professor of education at University of Sydney, has examined 25 years of articles in the media to paint a devastating picture. It all fits into the RW belief that a poorly educated population more easily manipulated than an educated population.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace/survey-print-media-portrayal-of-teachers-doesn-t-help-recruitment-20220726-p5b4r2.html
UK Cartoons:
Dave Brown after Franz Von Stuck:
The original Medusa:
Dr Doolittle @ #35 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 10:03 am
Thank you. Unfortunately I can only agree with and not add to the points you made. From my perspective, Vic and then Qld succumbed to NSW. NSW is our dominant state. Borders are porous. Willingness faltered. There was a reason Mr Morrison was known as the PM of NSW.
In worse news, even the vaccines are faltering as covid is mutating faster than the vaccines can keep up. (article last night on abc.net.au) And with elderly and “compromised” being urged to stay away from the Ekka, that’s going to come back and bite.
Dissecting Labor’s climate policy …
https://johnmenadue.com/the-maths-of-43-percent/
First, the choice of 2005 as the base year, which some don’t understand the reasons for …
Yes, it was originally a COALition trick, but Labor has now happily adopted it. But that is not where the trickery stops …
I disagree somewhat with this figure – there are other calculations which take the actions of the States into account which estimate it to be closer to 40% than 30% that will be achieved without the Federal government needing to do anything at all. When you include those details, Labor’s policy is pretty damn close to being a net-zero ambition policy.
But finally, just when you think Australia could not show any less ambition, along comes the real kicker …
Australia: Best little fossil fuel exporter in the world! Yay us!
Oakeshott Country at 9.59 am
Do you know the origin of the Maori seats? See book by Alan Ward, A Show of Justice (1973).
The original reason for the Maori seats was the Pakehas in Aotearoa (N Island) being upset by Pakeha population growth in Te Wai Pounamu (S Island, the place of the greenstone taonga).
In 2004 Don Brash as National leader gave a racist rant at a Pakeha retirement town N of Auckland named Orewa. Got a big boost in polls and almost won the 2005 election but failed. So the Maori seats are not entrenched in NZ but they look safe for now, particularly due to the survival of the Maori Party and MMP system.
If the Voice succeeds then it will be entrenched. A huge change. Why has Pat Dodson been very patiently waiting for a historic opportunity now imminent? He knows what is at stake and is a strong advocate for moving quickly to a vote next May on the Voice. I remember a radio interview with him 30 years ago when he made wistful remarks about Labor not fulfilling their promises (Hawke re Treaty etc).
Historically the best thing Bill Shorten has done is to persuade Pat Dodson to join the tent in expectation of this moment. Ironically Shorten’s loss in 2019 makes the victory of Voice at a referendum more possible, since Teals will support Voice and so Dutton is snookered.
Even the Costello rag supports the Voice. Labor will be united on Voice, LNP divided if Entsch does the decent thing and supports it. Greens will fall into line on Voice because of the Makarrata Commission, which Dodson has been pushing for a long while (e.g. see speech he gave at Latrobe Uni in 2007; reference in ch 2 0f Does History Matter? ANU 2009).
Late Riser @ #36 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 10:03 am
And, more importantly, whatever the government of the day wants it to be.
In other words, fairly meaningless.
Re Voices to Parliament. To clarify. I can agree that maps aren’t the territory, but they sure do let us navigate better. Symbols aren’t meaningless. They show us what’s possible, needed even. And as said by others, they don’t stop us doing more.
On behalf of all us really clever whitefellas here, I’ll go have a chat with those blackfellas who were at that quaint little meetup at that rock in the middle of Australia and let them know how terribly unambitious their proposal is and how much better it could be if they just let us compose it for them.
We want them to get it right. Wouldn’t want them to make a shambles out of it when we know how to do it right. I mean, what better first step can they take than to have us take a much bigger and better step on their behalf.
How FUCKING CONDESCENDING some of you are.
”
Wranslidesays:
Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 9:46 am
Ven what good does their resignation do? Apart from say DoPE. Isn’t it best to keep them in the spotlight, keep highlighting that DoPe refuses to move on them and therefore actively supports the corruption? It is the job of the Govt not the opposition. Let them hang themselves? Removing Ayres removes the story exactly what the Libs want. Why would Labor want that?
Sometimes it’s best to play the long game instead of short term ‘wins’ that have the effect of just removing the story and the issue.
”
Wranslide
Bob Carr may disagree with you because he had many political scalps like Terry Metheral, Nick Griener.
After just one term he reduced the LNP government into minority in 1991.
As of now LNP is odds on favourite to win next state election after 11 years of scandals, 4 Premiers with 3 resigning under the cloud of impropriety.
@Socrates, from the previous open thread @3.01pm yesterday:
“ Andrew Earlwood
Further to our discussion the other day about frigates vs AWD, I recommend the ASPI report arguing for cancelling the Hunters. It argues the whole purpose of the frigate project is misconceived and the ADFs reasoning for only having 3 AWDs is flawed. I found it persuasive.
Article
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-hunter-class-frigate-program-must-be-stopped-and-redirected/
Report
https://www.aspi.org.au/report/hunter-frigate-assessment”
_____
I read the article a few months ago, but not the extended report (which I’ll get around to later this weekend, time permitting). However, my initial thoughts are these:
1. I disagree that we should simply abandon the future frigate program / Hunter class. Missile numbers aside it is simply an awesome upgrade in overall capabilities over any large frigate / destroyer in the world. Here is an overview of the ship:
https://youtu.be/3fEZ9X_2fDU
2. An all rounder frigate/destroyer with superior ASW capability IS actually a desirable defence asset. Not just generally, but also for what I consider to be the most important defence function / capability we must have and develop: an integrated A2-AD network. Regarding the later, much of the discussion that you and I have engaged in – and which retired Admiral Shackleton – have focused on elate to the offensive capability in an A2-AD kill chain. We have all identified a complete lack of enough long range strike missiles and suitable platforms to place them on or in. However, A2-AD is not all about offensive capabilities: there is an equal need to protect the platforms that will be used to put the strike missiles on. While the Hobart’s have terrific ASW capabilities – better than the American destroyers and probably the equal of anything presently at sea right now; but the Hunter class is something better again. If the purpose of an A2-AD strike force is to seek out and destroy any enemy 1000nm or more from the Australian mainland, then that enemy will in turn seek to destroy that fleet prior to it getting into targeting range by having submarines ranging ahead. Which in turn means that out A2-Ad fleet need the best ASW capability available. Which in turn probably means persisting with the Hunter class, but probably rolling it out from 2030, not 2024 as currently planned.
3. It is incorrect to say that the Hobart class is inadequate in terms of strike missile capability. It has 48 full strike length missiles. For A2-AD work, operating at a stand off distance of 500-1000nm from any enemy target, then need for airfare surface to air missiles is much diminished. Therefore only 16 out of a total of 48 vertical launch cells would need to be reserved for Air Warfare. Leaving 32 cells for a combination of naval LRASMs and Tomahawks. If each Hobart was deployed in a team of two with a Hunter class, then that 32 long range strike missile capability would be complemented by a further 16 strike missiles from the paired Hunter class (with 16 silos being reserved for surface to air missiles). On any view having a pair of ships with 48 long range strike missiles (and another 16-24 deck mounted shorter range NSMs) is a formidable strike capability: more than enough to engage even a large enemy surface fleet with an overwhelming missile swarm. Ultimately the key to an effective A2-AD kill chain is to obtain a ‘look first, fire first’ position: which really relies upon intelligence, surveillance and targeting fusion between satellites, over the horizon radar, survelliance drones need manned aircraft: if we get all that right: then a combination of Hobart’s (and ultimately Hobart’s and Hunters working together) will ‘bring it home’.
4. That all being said, there is no doubt that the Hunter class program is out of control. $45 billion+ and growing. Delays. Uncertainty as to some basic functions. One wonders – if what we really want in the ability to take out any enemy asset anywhere and at any time, whether we’d be better simply buying four SSCNs off the French (ie SSBNs but with the missile silos converted to multi-pack long range cruise missile and perhaps even hypersonic missiles in lieu of ballistic missiles) in a capped contract of $10 billion a boat, inclusive of everything. Each of these subs could pack in a hundred or more strike missiles. They wouldn’t need any supporting ships and are probably not capable of being countered effectively. Perhaps that’s the submarine capability we really should be talking about and not SSNs. Perhaps if we simply replaced our six Collins class with say 6 to 10 enlarged Type 218SGs (ie. going back to the original 216 proposal, but building most of them in Adelaide, not just Kiel) and simply purchase SSCNs built by any one of the three countries capable of manufacturing them for us is actually the best option of all. We could then simply build another 9 Hobart classes and put some basic offensive weapons [ie. NSM canisters on the deck] on our Arafura class ships (turning them into Corvettes) and be done with it.
As NZ, like the UK, does not have a single constitution act, enshrining Māori seats in a constitution is not a consideration.
Māori have a choice of being on the Māori roll or the General roll but not both and about 50% go on the general roll. With ATSI seats presumably the same choice would apply, so there is no disproportionate vote for those who identify as indigenous. Conversely, it will be interesting how enfranchisement for the Voice will be controlled.
In the past Frank Walker in NSW suggested an ATSI Senator from each state – I don’t think that is such a bad idea
Frednksays:
Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 8:08 am
The state of Victoria:
Well this is interesting a poll. Unreported elsewhere.
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Thanks for that report.
Good for my Victoria election punting started 18 months ago.
Late Riser at 10.03 and 10.16 am
Re Voice it is all about process, i.e. political dynamic, and the context (LNP at 58 seats with a backward, no-hoper leader).
Albo knows Latham as Labor leader helped Howard abolish ATSIC in 2004, and that Rudd, whom he continued to support, was gutless after the Apology. (NB: listen to Rudd’s Apology speech; well-crafted but he mispronounced Yarrabah in Far N Qld as “Yabbarah”, an error that I think entered Hansard.)
With Dodson, Burney et. al. supporting him, Albo knows he can start, finally, to move on the journey that Hawke failed to move forward on in the 1980s.
Re Covid, yes Perrottet the work experience Premier led us all to the current disaster, which is a repeat of the stupid Swedish policy early in the pandemic.
Now that Perrottet is clearly “embattled”, will any other Premier, even McGowan (who used to say don’t follow NSW), have the guts to move away from the Swedish policy that was based on the illusion of insulating nursing homes from rampant community Covid? Seems unlikely now, but hope springs eternal with experts such as Raina MacIntyre insisting on what is needed.
Oakeshott Country @ #47 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 11:03 am
Just floating ideas here – what about a virtual ATSI state, with the same representation as all other states?