Weekend miscellany (open thread)

Northern Territory by-election looms; JSCEM appointments made; report on Victorian ALP branch-stacking released.

In the absence of anything else to report:

• Former Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner formally retired from parliament on Wednesday, having relinquished the leadership in May in the wake of a heart attack. In contrast to its counterparts in Western Australia, who have still not fired the starter’s gun on a by-election for North West Central, the government has already announced August 20 as the date for the by-election in his Darwin seat in Fannie Bay, which he retained by 9.6% at the 2020 election.

• Labor’s five members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters are Jagajaga MP Kate Thwaites, Hawke MP Sam Rae, Blair MP Shayne Neumann and South Australian Senators Karen Grogan and Marielle Smith, one of whom will be the committee’s chair. There were four opposition members and one from the Greens in the previous parliament, but I’m unclear as to how that will play out this time.

• The report of Operation Watts, the joint inquiry by Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission and Ombudsman into certain Labor state parliamentarians’ branch-stacking activities, offers a wealth of invaluable detail on the hard realities of the operation of modern political parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

632 comments on “Weekend miscellany (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 13
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  1. Late Risersays:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 9:18 am
    On Teals. Since the name was coined to lump together like minded “Climate 200” independents who insist they are “not a party” the amusing aspect for me has been the analogy of the duck. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it’s a duck. Teals being ducks
    ————————————————–
    You’ve got to knock up a Teal ‘pome’ for tomorrow morning LR.

  2. Dr Doolittle & DisplayName
    Hope is powerful. Small steps and so on. Process permitting. And just getting something into the constitution would not be insignificant. Maybe it’s enough. It feels tentative though.

  3. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 9:59 am

    I was hoping for the NZ model of Aboriginal seats.

    Why would you be hoping for that when the Statement from the Heart doesn’t suggest it?

  4. DisplayNamesays:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:59 am

    On behalf of all us really clever whitefellas here, I’ll go have a chat with those blackfellas who were at that quaint little meetup at that rock in the middle of Australia and let them know how terribly unambitious their proposal is and how much better it could be if they just let us compose it for them.

    We want them to get it right. Wouldn’t want them to make a shambles out of it when we know how to do it right. I mean, what better first step can they take than to have us take a much bigger and better step on their behalf.

    How FUCKING CONDESCENDING some of you are.

    Extremely.

  5. from frednk:

    “Without the support of all parties the referendum won’t get up. As things stand both the Greens and the Liberals have joined hands as they so often do and will oppose it”

    Seems to be the case, but i suspect, if the reception Albo’s statement at Garma is getting is as reported, then Libs and Greens who may be unhappy with a Voice in and of itself, or the order of things under the Uluru statement….will largely read the writing on the wall and get on board.

    In terms of garnering support for this, announcing what they have at Garma is a VERY good move. Its short, definitive, and i reckon moves the “debate” on well. Will all be overshadowed by a hopefully yes outcome the date of the referendum but still, a significant day for people.

    The politics of it?? ALP are playing it as well as can be for now. 🙂 Also, sends a message that the whole delivering on election commitments is obviously a thang. 🙂

  6. Q: I was hoping for the NZ model of Aboriginal seats.

    On that note it was great to see 9 Indigenous members elected at the last election …. who would have thought the existing system would deliver that result.

  7. Oakeshott Country at 11.03 am

    There’s been a serious debate in NZ for 20 odd years about how to entrench Maori rights in a constitutional form, precisely because of the potential for the Brash rant of 2004 to resurface.

    The unwritten nature of the NZ constitution is not the obstacle. Rather the obstacle has been lack of political will, i.e. the Bob Hawke syndrome, which is pure opportunism in the end. Should Ardern get re-elected late next year the debate may progress.

    Many years ago there was a parliamentary inquiry in NSW about dedicated Indigenous seats. Why did it not lead to any reform? Because neither Labor nor the Libs wanted to create a context in which the Indigenous representatives would have the balance of power. That is the obstacle. Hypothetically it would have been interesting having Gladys and Perrottet needing to satisfy Indigenous representatives so that they did not lose a confidence vote.

  8. Late Riser and Socrates

    I think the thing about seat belts, motor cycle helmets and masks (covid) is that they are effective societal compromises that allow the wearer to still go about their lives and do everything they want to but with just a light touch of state-sponsored commonsense that is always focused on protecting the wearer. I’m not sure how that can ever be a bad thing to the objective observer.

    All of the above would expect societal assistance in the form of medical treatment in the event of accidents or infection therefore the reasonable quid pro quo is to undertake some reasonable form of protection.

  9. For mine there are two relevant questions.

    Does the proposed question represent what was in the Statement from the Heart?

    And if so, is the wording the best way to present the question at Referendum?

  10. Albo has some pretty good speechwriters i think. He’s not the engaging orator that FPMJG was, but listen to WHAT he says………he’s doin ok. 🙂

  11. “Does the proposed question represent what was in the Statement from the Heart? ”

    Far as i know Barney, yes. Theme of the ALP during the election campaign was respecting the outcome of the discussions that led to the Statement from the Heart. ie: what gets done and the order in which its done.

    Wording? Well, they kept it simple. It is after all a yes / no and i think best chance of passing it at a referendum is to make it simple and direct and not muddy the waters with extraneous detail. Its a step on the way and Albo seems to be open to changes in the wording.

  12. https://ulurustatement.org/the-statement/
    https://ulurustatemdev.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UluruStatementfromtheHeartPLAINTEXT.pdf
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uluru_Statement_from_the_Heart#Text

    “We seek constitutional reforms to empower our people and take a rightful place in our own
    country. When we have power over our destiny our children will flourish. They will walk in
    two worlds and their culture will be a gift to their country.

    We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution. ”

    Ignorance is no excuse. I am humbled. This simple thing should not be beyond us. My opinion on its ambition is irrelevant.

  13. AE

    I think we agree. I was not meaning to imply that the AWDs were individually inadequate; as you say they have more of the required capability than the Hunters. Rather I was referring to the limited number (3) which fits with your comment to build more.

    Unfortunately I doubt that the French or anyone else would sell us old SSBNs to convert to SSGNs a la the Ohio Class conversions. Navies run their SSBNs constantly to maintain their deterrent and never dispose of them early because of their strategic importance to the builder country. Plus the missile tech and comms is highly classified.

    The four French Triomphant class SSBNs are coming up on 25 years old this year for the first in class. They are due to get replaced by the next French build after the Barracudas. By then they would be too old to help us much.

    If as per Radikin’s comments the Hunter program is brought under control (i.e. cost and time to deliver) then I agree they will be good. But recent Defence performance in achieving such outcomes leaves me wary. Hence I think proceeding with three more AWDs now and being ready to switch to continued AWDs in place of Hunters would be prudent. It might also put pressure on BAE to perform as they promised.

  14. Tackling needs to be taught:
    “Australasian College of Sport and Exercise Physicians president Mark Fulcher said it was an overreaction to suggest a ban on tackles in children’s sport. Is enough being done about concussion in sport?
    There’s an increasing cohort of former professional footballers who’ve developed conditions like memory loss and epilepsy, attributed to playing with concussion.

    “That is a group of academics saying that they believe there’s no need to tackle,” Dr Fulcher said. But I think if we were to go and talk to people who are actively involved in coaching, they would probably have a different view.
    He said many would make an argument coaching and teaching kids how to tackle and have good technique was an important part of improving safety.”

    My father-in-law who now suffers Alzheimers (as do so many of his former friends and teammates) from the constant head knocks played professional rugby league and knew how to tackle properly and had received all the right training. We also know from US studies that helmets only confine the concussion but do not prevent it. I love footy but the effects cannot be denied and it’s time for us to consider the importance of entertainment over individual health. There are plenty of great sports that don’t run the high risk of constant concussion.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-30/tackling-kids-footy-defend-harvard-report-brain-impacts/101283510

  15. Dr dulittle re prevous thread i agree that in this government wong will mostly lead trade and farrell will be in the back ground however andrew rob lead the trade deals signed under abbott government still i think trade should have been given to sumone moore qualified farell is clearly only in cabenit due to his factional power in shoppies the weak links in liberals are clearly imo tayler in treasury who will be attacked constantly over rorts and energy and mckenzey who is performingbbad on fmd bermingham also seemed like his not interested in qt

  16. Also agree with bw that dutton is off to a bad start and i think will be good foor labor his he seems to sexualize ishues which will not attrackt female voters plus lacks abots relatability as being a fire fighter or even trumps showmanship dutton just does not seem to have any likability his qt stunt a askng albanese if he has met with any cfmeyu oficials acused of crimes with no evidence designed to make dutton look tough instead cam a cross as foolish think mcgowan is right unless he shows his softter side and moves away from recker attack dog the liberals are unelectible

  17. Frednk says:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:19 pm
    “Why is the US flag flying at Garma? Seems to be a poor selection on this historic day.”

    I’d heard that the US Ambassador Caroline Kennedy was attending.

  18. Compared to four months out from the federal election there isn’t much campaigning and there’s no sign of the Teals.

    Caulfield Southwick doesn’t strike me as a strong local MP.

    Kew might stay Liberal and that might be the best outcome for Monique Ryan because Jess Wilson could be the ideal Liberal candidate for Kooyong.

    Sandringham will probably go where Brighton goes.

    Hawthorn is difficult to read but could be the Bass of this election.

    Brighton should swing towards the Liberals but the ALP has chosen a solid candidate that is a local councilor for Elwood.

  19. As of now LNP is odds on favourite to win next state election after 11 years of scandal

    Where have you pulled that piece of malarkey from, Ven? It almost sounds like wishcasting from you because you have an ingrained bias against the ALP coz the unions done you wrong, so often do you proclaim it.

  20. Paul Sakkal
    @paulsakkal
    Beverley McArthur has won a preselection ballot and will remain in the top position on the Liberal Party’s Western Victoria ticket

    The MP beat several challengers including a local councillor
    @theage #springst

    Another absolute dingbat gets the green light for the Vic Libs.

    She was another who was outspoken in abandoning Victorians in the midst of the pandemic calling for Morrison and Frydenberg to cease support for Victoria.

    The Vic Libs are a dangerous right wing extremist outfit.

    https://www.standard.net.au/story/7282334/disgraceful-south-west-liberal-mp-under-fire-for-comments/

  21. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 1:01 pm
    Cronus,
    “Touch Footy has survived without tackling.”

    Agreed C@T, And when played well is terrifically fast and skilful. I totally understand the likely objections of the various football codes and the likely ramifications but there is no denying the medical studies and findings. All footy codes (including soccer) can be adapted to methods that minimise concussive impacts whilst maintaining fitness and entertainment value.

  22. I listened to excerpts of Albo’s speech at Garma re The Voice recognition. I find it very difficult to fault anything he said, it just seemed like commonsense, respectful, fair and dignified recognition of facts that will have no noticeably detrimental impacts on Australians but hopefully positive outcomes for indigenous Australians.

    As with America, our constitution was written at a point in time, a time from which we’ve progressed. Our constitution should reflect the changes over the many past decades, including our relationship with Australia’s first peoples. It need not be an historical statement but rather a living and prescient document.

  23. Re Brighton

    The largest social club for those over 50 in Bayside council, in fact the only one, is full of people disgusted by James Newbury’s 2018 election campaign, and he hasn’t impressed them since. Also Brighton burghers are aware of the Mormon take over of the state executive and this goes against their secular beliefs

    The Liberals won’t be returned in Brighton

  24. billie @ #80 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 1:29 pm

    Re Brighton

    The largest social club for those over 50 in Bayside council, in fact the only one, is full of people disgusted by James Newbury’s 2018 election campaign, and he hasn’t impressed them since. Also Brighton burghers are aware of the Mormon take over of the state executive and this goes against their secular beliefs

    The Liberals won’t be returned in Brighton

    If a Teal runs for Braahhton, they will win.

  25. Cronus (from earlier)
    “ All of the above would expect societal assistance in the form of medical treatment in the event of accidents or infection therefore the reasonable quid pro quo is to undertake some reasonable form of protection.”

    I think this point is the key in discussing the question of social policy and when restricting personal freedom is justifiable. We restrict it when it causes harm, cost or reduces the freedom of others. If you are only risking your own neck with no cost imposed on others, then sure, take that bungy-jump.

  26. Cronus @ #77 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 1:20 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 1:01 pm
    Cronus,
    “Touch Footy has survived without tackling.”

    Agreed C@T, And when played well is terrifically fast and skilful. I totally understand the likely objections of the various football codes and the likely ramifications but there is no denying the medical studies and findings. All footy codes (including soccer) can be adapted to methods that minimise concussive impacts whilst maintaining fitness and entertainment value.

    Exactly. Such as the desire to not let young kids do headers in Soccer anymore. As we learn more about the deleterious effects on the brain of concussive damage, so we should adapt.

  27. Socrates @ #83 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 1:37 pm

    Cronus (from earlier)
    “ All of the above would expect societal assistance in the form of medical treatment in the event of accidents or infection therefore the reasonable quid pro quo is to undertake some reasonable form of protection.”

    I think this point is the key in discussing the question of social policy and when restricting personal freedom is justifiable. We restrict it when it causes harm, cost or reduces the freedom of others. If you are only risking your own neck with no cosy imposed on others, then sure, take that bungy-jump.

    Bungy jumping has a grey area too. Consider bicycle helmets. Who do they protect? Who does not wearing them endanger and how? What about smoking, or swimming “between the flags”? Endemic nasties eventually change behaviour. We could be smarter about it though.

  28. Found it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-s-speech-at-garma-festival-annotated-20220729-p5b5sp.html

    Ngarra ga Buku guru-pan Gumatj, Yothu Yindi nha go Yolngu mala.

    I acknowledge the people of the mighty Yolngu nation. I recognize all the elders, leaders and families who have made great contributions to our nation. In particular, I acknowledge the Gumatj clan whose lands we are meeting on.

    I am optimistic for the success of this referendum. And I am hopeful, in years to come, when we gather here at Garma, we will be able to measure that success not just by number of people who vote for a Voice but by the lives the Voice helps to change.

    The communities it empowers, the opportunities it creates, the justice it delivers, the security it will bring to First Nations people around our country. I am determined for us to succeed in this great project. And – working together, with humility, with hope – I am sure we can.

  29. Our contract with Origin Zero (elec retailer) expires next month. We on-sale electricity to our lessees. We had a broker search for the cheapest electricity. He found that Origin would be the cheapest. In a nutshell, a three-year contract nearly “trebles” the amount our tenants now pay; were it twelve months, it would quadruple. Currently, the average weekly charge per unit (without eligibility for a rebate) is $20 per week. Consumers across the board are in for a very rude shock. I blame the hapless former government, particularly the former energy minister for this parlous state of affairs.

  30. “Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 9:59 am
    It seems to me that this version of the “Voice” is no great advance on the National Aboriginal Consultative Council established 50 years ago and abandoned in chaos 10 years later. It is guaranteed by the constitution (and therefore another referendum will be required if it fails) and it can make representation to the parliament, when NACC could only make representations to the executive but it remains consultative and advisory.

    I was hoping for the NZ model of Aboriginal seats.”

    —–
    This model was chosen by First Nations people after an extensive consultation process. it represents the overwhelming majority view of FNP. what you or i think it should be is irrelevant.

  31. Mavis at 1:53 pm
    There is zero reason why electricity should not be inexpensive in Australia. But the ‘Lucky Country’ has cleverly seen its natural advantage in energy resources count for bugger all compared to what it should.

  32. Rex Douglas
    If a Teal runs for Braahhton, they will win.
    ——————————————–
    What is that location put down you refer to above?
    I haven’t heard anyone speak like that in my lifetime.
    And I advised previous ABC broadcaster Jon Faine of his regular incorrect put down Brighton satire many years ago when I encountered him in the CBD David Jones suite department. His wife ran off. Ha ha!

  33. Dr John @ #92 Saturday, July 30th, 2022 – 2:21 pm

    Rex Douglas
    If a Teal runs for Braahhton, they will win.
    ——————————————–
    What is that location put down you refer to above?
    I haven’t heard anyone speak like that in my lifetime.
    And I advised previous ABC broadcaster Jon Faine of his regular incorrect put down Brighton satire many years ago when I encountered him in the CBD David Jones suite department. His wife ran off. Ha ha!

    Prescribe yourself a chill pill, Dr.

  34. Frednk:

    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:02 pm

    [Mavis how many cents kWh peak time are you being quoted?’]

    Peak: 23

    Off Peak: 16

    The problem is that in calculating a tenant’s weekly electricity charge, how can you differentiate between who’s using peak or off-peak, bearing in mind that on-sellers of electricity are under pain of a penalty if they charge in excess of the allowable amount? It’s a fooking shambles.

  35. poroti:

    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:03 pm

    [‘Mavis at 1:53 pm

    There is zero reason why electricity should not be inexpensive in Australia.’]

    Yep! And the former government was aware of the huge increase coming
    but failed to inform the electorate. I feel another RC is in the making.

  36. Mavissays:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:32 pm
    poroti:

    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:03 pm

    [‘Mavis at 1:53 pm

    “There is zero reason why electricity should not be inexpensive in Australia.’]”

    “Yep! And the former government was aware of the huge increase coming
    but failed to inform the electorate. I feel another RC is in the making.”

    Solar, wind and batteries is how to achieve it.
    We are stuck with the current disaster until we build that SWB as soon as possible.
    The current “debate” is taking the focus away from getting it done.

  37. Dr John says:
    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:21 pm

    Rex Douglas
    If a Teal runs for Braahhton, they will win.
    ——————————————–
    What is that location put down you refer to above?
    I haven’t heard anyone speak like that in my lifetime.
    And I advised previous ABC broadcaster Jon Faine of his regular incorrect put down Brighton satire many years ago when I encountered him in the CBD David Jones suite department. His wife ran off. Ha ha!
    _________________
    Could Dr John be the infamous “John of Brighton”:

    https://radioinfo.com.au/news/banned-talkback-caller-sues-jon-faine/

  38. Themunz:

    Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    [‘Solar, wind and batteries is how to achieve it.’]

    I don’t doubt that but how is, say, a pensioner going to be able to afford the new electricity prices? Many have difficulty with the existing rates. And looking at it in macro-economic terms, the new rate will fuel inflation.

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