Still no sign of Newspoll, despite today’s resumption of parliament, nor of voting intention from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll. As reported by The Guardian, the latter turns out to be the most discouraging set of numbers for the Albanese government so far, in that 40% were already prepared to rate the government as doing a poor job on relieving cost of living pressures, compared with 23% for good and 37% for neither. Apart from that, all the unusually spare report from The Guardian has to tell us is that “a majority of respondents believe the Albanese government can influence the direction of inflation and interest rates”, which seems unlikely to bode well. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1082, presumably from Thursday to Monday – the full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.
UPDATE: While “neither good nor poor” responses are high in each case, the poll also finds the government rated good on the pandemic by 36% and poor by 25%; good on education by 35% and poor by 18%; and good on climate change by 33% and poor by 21%. Forty-four per cent supported the government’s carbon emissions target while 40% said it did not go far enough, but no option was provided for those who felt it went too far. Fifty per cent said the Greens should support the government, with a question that emphasised Labor had been elected on that basis, while 25% said they should only do so if Labor agreed to changes consistent with its own policies. Full report here.
Also of note:
• Latika Bourke of the Age/Herald reports that Liberals Andrew Hastie and Simon Birmingham are looking at the example followed by David Cameron after the Conservatives’ 2005 election defeat to improve diversity in the party’s parliamentary ranks, which involved producing a leadership-backed “A-list” of diverse candidates and encouraging local party associations (which lack a clear equivalent in Australian party structures) to choose candidates through primaries open to non-members.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has deregistered the Liberal Democrats, belatedly giving effect to legislation passed last year that effectively prohibited minor parties from having the words Liberal or Labor in their names. The party was cleverly able to keep the existing name at the May election after withdrawing its application to change its name to the Liberty Democrats (officially the Liberty and Democracy Party) in late March, which compelled the AEC to initiate a lengthy deregistration process that has only now come to fruition.
• Two days after a Daily Telegraph report suggesting he has designs on Marise Payne’s Senate seat should she soon vacate it, the Milton Ulladulla Times reports Andrew Constance plans to run again in Gilmore at the next federal election, after falling 373 votes short of taking the seat from Labor’s Fiona Phillips in May.
Re level crossings. Yep, good policy. Recently SA have been dealing with the problems of trucks coming down the hill on the freeway and slamming into traffic at the first traffic lights. It doesnt happen often. But often enough. Call back radio is full of people decrying that ‘it doenst matter how much it costs – fix it!’. Amazing how people want governments to step in and spend up big (this will be v exe to do much more than has already been done) but cry foul when a government tries to fix the tax system to remove rorts. These same people would be first in line with ‘no death taxes!’ – ‘land tax is bad!’.
And ofcourse, not one of the presenters I heard linked government spending with taxation. – and also barely mentioned regulation of the truck industry.
C@t
Yes “Sigh, America” but be aware of that website ‘s pedigree. The Ayatollah of Neocons , Bill Kristol , is involved.
A reminder of just one of his ‘triumphs’.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/2003/03/18/bill-kristol-keeping-iraq-in-the-cross-hairs/72191034-2d12-44a0-aaa1-39ecab6d9dce/
.
Voice Endeavour says:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 10:48 am
@frednk – those numbers are count of lower house seats won, not % of primary vote won.
88 seats means 45 for majority government
Sorry made a mistake, trying to convert your outcome to a two party preferred.
Your going for around 51% to labor, Labor majority?
Any talk of a hung Parliament in November in Victoria is pretty close to rubbish, I reckon.
Can anyone, even Taylormade, see the Liberals picking up enough seats to get that close to Labor?
Seriously, can the dysfunctional Libs, with Guy as its reheated leader, take out lots of Labor seats and Greens ones as well.? The latest economic news from Victoria won’t help their cause.
Sure, some former Liberal seats may go back to them. But is there any widespread drive for change of government in Victoria? And will a Teal push have implications for the Libs?
Ven —-9:38
(Mind you I’m not a fan of unions)
Why Not ?
There is a clear improvement for the Democrats in the midterm polling. They are now favoured (slightly) to hold the senate. The generic ballot is now neck and neck. Abrahams getting closer to Kemp in Ga and O’Rourke has narrowed the gap in Texas (but still short but it is much closer than 2018).
538’s House forecast is still looking dire for the Democrats, yet the popular vote metric that only partly underpins the forecast has been improving for them.
Is Trump a drag on the Republicans in 2022? Or, if he goes quiet, will it effect his supporters turnout?
Gettysburg1863 @ #874 Friday, July 29th, 2022 – 11:10 am
Also whatever data Smethurst was using has not been picked up by the Herald Sun for their landing page.
Libs just say we will fix xyz but no indication of HOW they are going to fix it.
Soc,
“Regarding power prices, it is going to take Labor years to undo the damage Angus Taylor did to renewable power construction. But the damage he did to prices can be undone quickly by changing the market structure. Labor really should do this fast, as it is damaging our economy now.”
It’s only going to take a few years, tbh. Spoke with some senior people in Qld energy sector and govt during the week. They have firm expectations that Qld will hit 50% RE power generation by ~2027, well before the 2030 target. And when pressed to predict where things might be by 2030, suggested 60-65%. Take the figures with a grain of salt, but it’s clear continued rapid growth in RE is coming, which will releive pressure on prices.
“Gas companies neither pay much tax nor employ many people, so there is no excuse to let them continue gouging eastern state consumers. High power prices also damage the prospects of manufacturing jobs. The government should move to a WA style reserve system ASAP.”
This one is quite a bit trickier than I realised. Reliable gas production requires continued capital investment. Continued investment relies on long-term take-off agreements. There is no domestic mechanism for striking the kinds of long-term contracts that capital needs, so they have looked overseas for this. Of course, that leaves us exposed to the international market price for gas. Implementing a domestic gas reservation policy without long-term support for investment will see investment dry up, and us not extracting enough gas at all (gas production from a well drops by about 10% per year). Then see what happens to prices in the electricity market. I offer no solutions.
Steve777 at 10:32 am
One bigly plus for Albo is the experience of the Rudd/Gillard circus. Everyone will be very aware of the hell the indulgent internecine warfare led to during that period and you’d imagine be very keen to avoid a repeat. Another possible plus is the prospect of The Uber Tuber electing to be Tony 2.0 . Previous experience with Tony 1.0 will help.
”
Red Clydesays:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 11:14 am
Ven —-9:38
(Mind you I’m not a fan of unions)
Why Not ?
”
Because I had bad experience with Unions regarding my employment.
zoomstersays:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 8:09 am
“When you throw in Thorpe, the chances of getting a Voice up seem slim…”
And a little support from Gina R.
Steve777 @ #1095 Friday, July 29th, 2022 – 9:43 am
It’s a feature not a bug for their support of Trump.
We have received the new contract prices from our retailer, the kWH prices were lower, the daily charge was lower and the off peak hours longer. It may be because we use momentum which is the retail arm of a very large renewable producer ( Tas Hydro). Tas Hydro must be making serious money at the moment, there seems to be no shortage of water, and they supply as much as the bass straight cable can handle when things are tight.
That is what we are seeing. From our point of view the reporting in the papers is nonsense.
Jan 6 says, “Is Trump a drag on the Republicans in 2022? Or, if he goes quiet, will it effect his supporters turnout?”
The turnout against Trumpists may be the more important effect. An effective message might simply be, “We need to ensure this is never repeated…” To that effect, we should also consider that the J6C will resume transmission in September, this time targeting sitting Republicans who supported Trump.
Jan 6 @ #1118 Friday, July 29th, 2022 – 11:16 am
The Bolton PAC did polling which showed that Trump was a drag on the Repug vote.
Stacy Abrams will lose again to Brian Kemp, imho, because Kemp has done enough to keep Independents and Republican voters thinking of straying, onside, due to standing up to Trump. Stacey Abrams should just stick around if Kemp is Term Limited.
Raphael Warnocke is turning Herschel Walker on the rotisserie very nicely and should hold his seat.
As far as Beto in Texas is concerned, the same applies to him as applies to the Democratic vote in general. It’s probably closer than polls make out due to the fact that their winning depends on getting out the Millennial and Gen Z vote and they don’t answer their phones if they don’t recognise the caller, or online polls because they’re for us oldies. 🙂
Getting out the Vote efforts are going well, from what I’ve seen. The younger generations aren’t letting the summer heat stop them from going door to door to garner support.
Also Vote Save America and The Lincoln Project have projects going to aid the Dems as well.
Momentum is the key now.
In Victoria, it’s entirely possible that the Liberals will get an overall swing to them but a net loss of seats – a repeat of federal voting patterns would see a big swing to them in outer western, northern and southeastern suburbs where there’s almost nothing within reach except Pakenham (the sort of swing that in the federal election mainly turned 15% Labor seats into 10% ones), and a swing against in inner/middle ring southern and eastern suburbs which is full of marginal Liberal seats.
Any independent who doesn’t already have a significant profile has probably left their run too late, unless you have a situation like Melton last time where Labor was on its third-choice candidate by the time polling day came around (and still won, though with a reduced margin).
Melton has finally got a hospital under construction. I think it might not be so marginal for labor for that reason…
i seem to remember the media hyping up a hung parliament only when labor is in a winning lead or liberals are behind when liberals in front they will get a land slide an example of media bias i assume when payyne leaves sennate airs will be the scapegoat and perrettet will just replace him with the kean who seems to be deputy leader all ready might make penrith harder to winn with out aires how ever liberals did well in local government ilections winning majority on cowncil
Torchbearersays:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 10:30 am
… who may not be obscenely wealthy.
Dandy Murray
Thanks that is great news re Renewable power generation in Qld. If it can be linked to jobs such as ensuring the survival of Gladstone alumina refinery via green energy, combined with current high power prices, it is asmart play.
Hi all, incase nobody has noticed it yet;
A new story about an old poll, must be a slow news day.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/an-andrews-minority-government-is-a-growing-possibility-20220728-p5b58t.html
Previous story 16 weeks ago;
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/guy-back-in-the-race-but-labor-riding-high-on-10-seat-buffer-20220406-p5ab6j.html
Discussed here
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/07/resolve-strategic-labor-37-coalition-33-greens-10-in-victoria/
@Frednk – I think with those seats it’d be closer to 52.x% Labor 2PP.
Gettysburg1863 says:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 11:10 am
Any talk of a hung Parliament in November in Victoria is pretty close to rubbish, I reckon.
Can anyone, even Taylormade, see the Liberals picking up enough seats to get that close to Labor?
Seriously, can the dysfunctional Libs, with Guy as its reheated leader, take out lots of Labor seats and Greens ones as well.? The latest economic news from Victoria won’t help their cause.
Sure, some former Liberal seats may go back to them. But is there any widespread drive for change of government in Victoria? And will a Teal push have implications for the Libs?
—————————
A minority government is possible but unlikely and it can happen if the Greens pick up a big swag of seats and the ALP drop enough seats to the Liberals but the ALP has to drop 12 seats so the most likely outcome is for a majority ALP government. People close to the government think the ALP might lose up to 8 seats and they thinking it could be something like 1988 and 1996. In both elections there were swings against the government but only a handful of seats changed hands and there is no big Teal push.
Today I saw NSW Labor LOTO Chris Minns being interviewed on ABC News Breakfast. He was asked by the host whether he will ask for resignation of Stuart Ayers ( i.e. whether metaphorically he would wear Ayres political scalp on his cowboy belt). Minns said he will not ask for Ayres resignation because there is no point in doing so because
nothing changes as LNP keeps employing their mates in important posts anyway.
I’m reading this article on the DOJ’s effort to clear away potential claims of executive privilege that might be used to shield Trump.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/28/politics/doj-court-trump-january-6-executive-privilege/index.html
All well and good, but the article doesn’t say which court will consider the case. And in any case what happens if the question is passed up to the suborned Supreme Court?
Jan 6
I have a different view on the SE Freeway crash and safety works in general in South Australia and nationally. Overall I would say as follows:
– we spend slightly too much on transport infrastructure as opposed to water, power and communications
– we spend our transport infrastructure funds badly, wasting most on futile attempts to “bust congestion”and not enough on issues like road safety, accessible public transport, walking and cycling, and plain old maintenance (road and rail).
In the Adelaide context we are planning to spend $10+ billion upgrading South Road to a freeway. Around the world other cities are tearing down such eyesores, realising that the land under the freeway is now worth more than the freeway.
Meanwhile we spend far less on road safety, even though, in economic as well as human terms, casualty crashes cost Australia more than congestion does. For the price of South Road, we could upgrade (grade separate) literally 100 intersections like Portrush and Cross.
Dan in Melbourne got it right with the rail grade separation projects – much better value than another freeway.
NB: these reasons are all valid even if you ascribe no weight to the cost of driving and climate change.
Steve777says:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 10:32 am
The problem for Dutton is that this approach is becoming old and predictable.
Labor has shown so far in Question Time that they able to predict and prepare for them.
I almost expect to here cries of Bingo from the Government benches as Members mark their cards.
“Raphael Warnocke is turning Herschel Walker on the rotisserie very nicely and should hold his seat.”
Warnock is ahead of Walker in the polls, but when divided according to gender, Warnock is at about +25 amongst women and -18 amongst men. That translates to a two party preferred difference between genders of over 20 points.
Are men really THAT much conservative than women? More than likely, it is a pernicious effect of the prevailing culture in the US, but I am sure this is being seen in other countries too. I reckon that in Russia where men live, on average, about fourteen years less than women, the support for Putin would be much higher in men than in women. In the US, millions upon millions of middle-aged men (like myself!) are dying from alcohol-related and addiction illnesses, yet still routinely vote for Trump.
This seems to be a phenomenon worldwide and the gap is widening. I feel ashamed of my own gender.
Who does Starmer think he is sacking a colleague for attending a picket line ..???
Melbourne Mammoth,
Men vote for Herschel Walker because of his storied NFL career. It would be like the men who voted for Glen Lazarus when he stood for Palmer.
Rex Douglas at 12:23 pm
Tony Blair and Maggie T were married and to them a son was born, Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC .
MelbourneMammothsays: Friday, July 29, 2022 at 12:17 pm
In the US, millions upon millions of middle-aged men (like myself!) are dying from alcohol-related and addiction illnesses, yet still routinely vote for Trump.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
How Donald Trump appeals to men secretly insecure about their manhood
From boasting about the size of his penis on national television to releasing records of his high testosterone levels, President Trump’s rhetoric and behavior exude machismo. His behavior also seems to have struck a chord with some male voters. See, for example, the “Donald Trump: Finally Someone With Balls” T-shirts common at Trump rallies.
But our research suggests that Trump is not necessarily attracting male supporters who are as confidently masculine as the president presents himself to be. Instead, Trump appears to appeal more to men who are secretly insecure about their manhood. We call this the “fragile masculinity hypothesis.”
MORE : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/29/how-donald-trump-appeals-to-men-secretly-insecure-about-their-manhood/
Alpha Zero says:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 11:55 am
Melton has finally got a hospital under construction. I think it might not be so marginal for labor for that reason…
——-
I didn’t know it was under construction. There was a recent State government announcement but as I recall the commentary, the start of construction was some years off. If so, it might not be such a strong point for the local Labor candidate.
poroti @ #1234 Friday, July 29th, 2022 – 12:29 pm
poroti, it’s gobsmacking what has become of the Labour party since the Blairites took charge
poroti @ #1143 Friday, July 29th, 2022 – 12:29 pm
And Jeremy Corbyn lost the Red Wall to the Tories. So the loss of an acolyte of his is no great loss.
Ven at 9.38 am and 12.08 pm
Minns seems unfamiliar with basic principles of argument, at least for those who are leaders.
Re Georgia Steele, she has Mr Holmes A’Court’s backing but she may have a reputation as a bit of a splitter in Hughes and surrounding areas. There was a process for choosing a local Teal candidate with community backing. She vaulted around the process to promote herself. She would be much better than Scotty from Truancy, but she might have an outsized ego.
I’ll never forget seeing Blairites openly endorsing Boris Johnson as preferred PM. Corbyn never stood a chance.
Socrates says:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 12:10 pm
..
Dan in Melbourne got it right with the rail grade separation projects – much better value than another freeway.
It is the grade separation ( I assume we are talking trains and cars) that makes more frequent trains possible. More frequent trains increases the value of the real estate around stations and decreases the value of freeways. It really is a positive feedback loop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxykI30fS54&ab_channel=NotJustBikes
I saw Minns interviewed on ABC this morning. A very soft performance indeed.
phoenixRED @ 12:31 regarding “fragile masculinity hypothesis.”
You reminded me of the book “White Fragility” (Robin DiAngelo). Fragile egos might lie at the root of more than one anti-social attitude.
C@t
It was a great victory for the ‘Blairites’. They were well pleased with the result.
I agree. Money spent on roads is, more often than not, politically motivated. It is why I brought up the issue with the SE freeway. People getting angry about it and demanding a fix no matter the cost are fodder to populism. The cost matters. That blank check could be used elsewhere that might save far more lives. not to mention the lack of connection between expenditure and tax – and the lack of connection between the problem and lax regulation. It was talkback at its dumbest and pathetically emotive imo.
I have a lot to gain from a heavy vehicle bypass starting near Murray Bridge. However, I would like to see it (or any other fix) make good sense – not just good politics.
South Road! omfg. I lived in Mile End some time ago when planning and “consultation” was starting to rev up. Good example.
Then you have the simplistic idea of restarting the Adelaide hills rail line. I dont see how that makes any sense. It would be slow. Oh so slow. Nobody will take it. Maybe combine the two issues and do a bypass for trucks and open up more buses and bus lanes into the city. And/or encourage hills people to shop and work and play more in the Hills.
I thought the Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass over-stepped the mark yesterday publicly calling for VicPol to apologise. She’s been overly outspoken a number of times IMHO.
ALP national secretary Paul Eriksen has announced the Tasmanian Labor branch has been taken over by the National executive #politas @7tasnews
Ven says:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 9:15 am
”
NSW Small Business Minister Eleni Petinos is facing allegations she called an adviser “retarded” and “stupid” and threatened she would “kill” them for making a small mistake, despite workplace safety being part of her portfolio responsibilities, reports Max Maddison.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-minister-eleni-petinos-faces-claims-of-bullying/news-story/68304786e79dfc4c6cf95f7cc04e52b1”
“Aren’t female LNP Ministers at state and federal level work of art?”
They are a type aren’t they, all seem to come from the same mean mould.
He says “This intervention is about improving the culture of the Branch, reinstating trust, respect, transparency and a Party-first approach to internal decision-making.” #politas
The state conference will be suspended with “an annual Tasmanian Policy Forum will be convened to ensure that Branch members, affiliated trade unions and state and federal parliamentary members can contribute to policy discussion and campaign development.” #politas @7tasnews
Ven 11:20
(Mind you lm not a fan of unions)
Red Clyde 11:14
Why not?
Ven 11:20
Because I had a. bad experience with Unions regarding my employment.
We’ll I’ve had multiple bad experiences over 60 years with democratically elected governments &the law but I’m still a fan of democracy @the rule of law
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, July 29, 2022 at 12:54 pm
I thought the Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass over-stepped the mark yesterday publicly calling for VicPol to apologise. She’s been overly outspoken a number of times IMHO.
____________
I thought she was right. Apparently the detectives involved wanted to arrest 16 ALP MP’s as well but were denied by senior police. Why were they involved in it anyway? Have they arrested Somyurek or Anthony Byrne for admitting they did the same thing, which was using employees on matters they weren’t employed for. This is the sort of issue which police should not be involved. I feel that the involvement of the police, even at the margins of the political process is unwanted.
https://www.vic.gov.au/sick-pay-guarantee
Rex Douglas @ #1155 Friday, July 29th, 2022 – 12:54 pm
Fan of a Police State, Rex Douglas? Where the Police remain beyond accountability?