The Age brings us the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll of state voting intention in Victoria, combining results from the Victorian respondents out of this month’s and last month’s national polls (next month will be the turn of New South Wales). The poll records a significant drop in support for Labor compared with the previous poll, down four to 37%, with the Coalition up two to 33%. With the Greens down one to 10%, the difference is made up by two-point increases for independents to 12% and others to 9%.
Resolve Strategic does not publish two-party results, but I would guess this to be around 53-47 in favour of Labor, although the combined 21% for independents and others makes it a difficult call. Despite the movement on voting intention, there is little change to Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier, which goes from 47-30 to 48-31. The poll has a sample of around 1000, the most recent batch of 500 having been surveyed from Wednesday to Sunday.
The fed election is going to be crucial here. Recent election results show that when Fed ALP is in power, Vic ALP is voted out, with Fed LNP/Vic ALP being the voter’s preferred model.
The Age editor will be so disappointed.So much nonsense published, so little result.
@Luke
Whilst federal drag is a thing, that’s not the voters’ preferred alignment. The Vics voted strongly in favour of federal ALP last time (20-something seats to LNP about 15), and will again this time.
The average Victorian has not wanted the Libs in power federally for a very long time.
@Expat
True, but Vics voted for Baileau once Rudd/Gillard came into power and continued to vote Kennett until Howard came into power- then Vics consistently voted ALP state governments.
As mentioned in the other thread, the primary votes polled here are actually worse for the Libs than their primary at the last state election where they were wiped, which doesn’t really point to a gap closing for the Libs except compared to the poll last time which was even worse for them on primary. I would interpret this polling as people angry at Andrews parking their vote with mostly imaginary independents but unwilling even at this point to say they’re voting Liberal instead, which doesn’t bode well for the Libs on preferences even if those votes do go to independents in the end.
I wonder if Pessuto who was unseated at last election, will throw his hat in the ring again.
He was the only credible member the Liberals had.
I do believe that if labor win federally, it will impact the vote come November.
Luke, Vics continued to vote Kennett until … he tried to privatise the State’s internal audit function and disparaged regional Victoria as ‘the toenails’.
“continued to vote Kennett” is an interesting phrase, he only won 2 elections and his 2nd term was with a reduced majority. Kennett’s original election was a fait accompli but the famous “Guilty Party” advertising campaign certainly drove the knife in very effectively to the failures of the Cain/Kirner governments.
The way Kennett lost regional areas to Bracks in 1999 (although the warning signs were already there at the previous election and the victories of Russell Savage and Susan Davies as independents) is practically unprecedented for a Coalition leader in the modern era. A combination of Kennett’s open disdain and policy neglect of seats taken for granted, and Bracks’ appeal as a leader from outside Melbourne, changed the political geography of Victoria (and unlike the Rudd effect in Qld, a lot of this change stuck).
“The poll records a significant drop in support for Labor compared with the previous poll, down four to 37%, with the Coalition up two to 33%. With the Greens down one to 10%, the difference is made up by two-point increases for independents to 12% and others to 9%.
Resolve Strategic does not publish two-party results, but I would guess this to be around 53-47 in favour of Labor, although the combined 21% for independents and others makes it a difficult call. Despite the movement on voting intention, there is little change to Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier, which goes from 47-30 to 48-31. ”
Lots of food for thought there:
1) An estimated 53% 2PP for the ALP in Vic is still pretty good, after you factor in the relentless Liberal Party & Friends attack against the ALP government of Victoria…. The strategy is not quite working (as it isn’t in Qld and WA)…. My bet is that the Coalition, and their mates Palmer and Hanson, are running out of Voting Morons!
2) “the combined 21% for independents and others makes it a difficult call.”…. Or perhaps not so much, at least qualitatively, given that in Victoria there are quite a few Progressive “independents and others” who would preference the ALP above the Libs/Nats.
3) “there is little change to Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier, which goes from 47-30 to 48-31.”…. Trying to “Kill Dan” with a cooked lobster is just laughable. Dan only needs a bit of mayo, a glass of bubbly… and say bon appétit to everybody… Enjoy the “lobster”, Dan… Burp!… Oops…
🙂
“Frednk says:
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 6:18 am
The Age editor will be so disappointed.So much nonsense published, so little result.”
The silly Costello and his mate Murdoch are operating on the assumption that the majority of Voting Morons are Un-Demoronisable, no matter what their political mates in the Coalition do, at both state and federal levels. The assumption doesn’t seem to be working anymore…. 🙂
Why is Matthew Guy being allowed to campaign as a cleanskin?
Ind/Others preferences in Vic 2018 appear to have broken slightly in Labor’s favour (unlike federally), on which basis I have this one as around 55.5 to Labor, though it could be even higher if Resolve’s inflated IND vote skews left.
Nice to see ABC has decided to show Albo pressers in FULL.
If Labor wins they really need to send a directive to the news desk that parties should get FULL equal coverage, or they should set up something like C-SPAN so we can get estimates without having to use aph.gov.au.
@c@t: Is he?
With the Federal Election consuming all political oxygen at the moment and the State Election not until November, there’s no point going after Guy at the moment. By the time we get to ~September there will be Lobster Mobster posters in the Melbourne CBD.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/07/resolve-strategic-labor-37-coalition-33-greens-10-in-victoria/#comment-3858207
The ALP`s success in regional cities since 1999 is the result of various factors, only some of which are Kennett and/or Bracks related:
Brack`s personal popularity in the regions.
Urban, suburban and peri-urban grown in regional cities` seats. Regional Fast Rail and the Regional Rail link have contributed to the growth, as have Calder Freeway duplication and the Geelong Bypass.
Pyramid collapse backlash washing out of more Geelong voters voting priorities as it moved further into the past and turnover in the Parliamentary ALP removing those who were in government at the time.
The the Coalition being in power at Commonwealth level for all but 1 Victorian election since 1996.
The 2010-2014 Coalition Victorian government being scandal prone and falling into minority after just over 2 years. Had it been better at being in government and had an additional MLA to consign Geoff Shaw to closer to irrelevance, they were headed towards more of a landslide win and would have picked up regional city seats.
Elections tend to concentrate the mind. The Tories will be smashed again!
I’m not voting to get locked down again. Or to be locked out of the place I normally work.
Who’s voting for more booster shots?
Dan is not the man.
🙁