Budget polling: day three

Resolve Strategic gives Labor its strongest result yet, but with some odds things going on the breakdowns, plus further good signs for Labor from a Roy Morgan national poll and two South Australian seat polls.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.

The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.

The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).

This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.

Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.

There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).

Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Budget polling: day three”

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  1. Any other details on the Mackellar poll?….can anyone get past the pay wall?..I’d guess ALP on 18-20, Greens 10. others 11……libs in trouble in Mackellar….well well well

  2. i prodict that if he does not rush to gg tomorow morrison will be rolled dutton wants it in cfws speech said we need a leader to conect with our base and stand up on nasional seccurity plus his defence of pm was weak on 2gb saidCfws com,ents was disapointing but she is a dear friend and will be a los to the parliament dont think frydenberg will do any good looks like alp are headid for landslide dont think another miracle is posible will be like rudd 2013

  3. Mackellar is full of shy Tories. Falinski will win again. I remember a similar poll from 2019, and it caused me to get my hopes up. Falinski ended up with 53%, as observed.

  4. Just catching up on this story about Morrison backtracking on the AUKUS subs not being built in Adelaide. Earlier he had hinted they might be built o/s.

    It was good to see Premier Malinauskas and Senator Patrick both take this up quickly as a broken Liberal promise.

    But Scomo’s revising his statement was full of lies. There is NO FUNDING in the budget for the AUKUS subs to be built in Adelaide. I could not find any relevant spending in the years to 2025. The listed spending (on the WA fleet base) relates to where subs will be based, and could include USN or RN nuclear boats. This proves nothing in terms of any Adelaide sub building.

    A start date for any Adelaide SSN construction also remains conspicuously absent. Why? There is no design work to delay this time. As soon as the shipyard is ready construction can start. Calling this suspicious is an understatement.

    Scomo must be pinned down on how much the Adelaide subs will cost and when do they start? Otherwise his promises are so vague as to be worthless.

  5. Socrates ,
    We need the subs more than we need sub welding jobs in Adelaide.

    Whilst scomo is a coward for not being able to own the decision and make the case for it. It’s not necessarily a bad decision to just buy a off the shelf nuclear sub.

  6. BeaglieBoy,
    I live on the other side of the water from Mackellar. When push comes to shove, the majority will put a 1 in the Liberal box. Or put the Liberals second after The Greens. Strategic voting… that ends up with the Liberals. Sophie Scamps is doing well, but even now Jason Falinski is beating her. So how will that shake out in the 2PP? I’m not convinced by this poll.

  7. @aaron It seems like Morrison will ask the GG to issue writs for an election by Sunday. I can’t see how Morrison won’t lead the LNP to the election, even if people within his party wanted him gone there’s no practical way of replacing him. It kind of feels like the LNP and the organisations that support them are not all that keen to win this election. I’m guessing they are expecting imminent interest rate rises and if its only a couple of % points that’s going to be disastrous in a country drowning in absurd levels of household debt.

  8. Labor and the Senate will have the sort and understand the submarine debris and that of many other projects that deliver nothing but cost a bomb. Morrison is too busy arranging lies to deflect Liberal members and MPs accusing him, anything outside that he’ll just make up entirely until hes gone

    A very weird election campaign and it hasn’t even ‘started’

  9. mj,
    Interest rate rises won’t be as impactful as people think. Lots of people have a lot of equity and a lot of people saved money over covid.

    People will feel the pinch, that’s a certainly, but Howard succeeded in an environment where rates just kept going up and everyone just dealt with it.

    I don’t think the liberals are trying to loose the election on purpose, regardless of evidence to the contrary. Power hungry people want power, regardless of the circumstances.
    As demonstrated by mitchell and webb, If you get to be the New Fuhrer, the first order of business is getting people to salute you.

  10. Mavissays:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 10:08 pm
    You know your time’s up when even the IPA’s on your case:

    [“Scott Morrison would have to be in my opinion the worst Prime Minister the Liberal Party has put up since Billy McMahon, except that Billy McMahon had principles,” Mr Rozner said on ABC’s Q&A.’]


    The firing squad lined up from all sides and are firing one by one.

  11. Divided loyalty is still an issue. As a holder of more than one citizenship from my ancestry I’m happy to be able to travel around more freely. But if I wanted to sit in parliament I understand the need to renounce any other citizenship. Appearance of propriety is important, alongside its reality

  12. @south I’m not saying some people can’t cover their loans even with interest rate rises and/or people who have significant equity. But it seems there are also a lot of owner/occupier people out there who are offered loans on tenuous grounds which are only sustainable while interest rates are very low. If they rise the broader economy is fucked as middle income people will have greatly reduced discretionary income. We have a totally unbalanced housing market that political parties are too short sighted to fix. Sooner or later it’ll end in disaster, it’s only a surprise its taken this long.

  13. Steve777says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 10:10 pm
    My guess is that Hockey would have been as hopeless a PM as Morrison. He was actually ‘supposed’ to win the Opposition leadership in December 2009. Abbott was in that sense an “accidental” Opposition Leader. Dutton was ‘supposed to’ ascend to the PMship in 2018 but Morrison came up through the middle, Jim Hacker style.

    I know all sorts of reasons are given why Australian people voted for Morrison leadership in 2019. And the pundits and PBers can give whatever reason they want to give. In the end it is the Australian people who voted for Morrison government.
    Lars keeps repeating Bob Hawke quote that Australian people always get it right. Did they get it right?
    Maybe they have given one last chance for Libs to govern properly. We will see.
    Seriously though, current Federal LNP government is comparable to last NSW Labor government, which was defeated in 2011 or the Victorian Kirner Labor government of early 90s.

  14. There’s another maxim – Governments stay on one term longer than they should. Cited examples include Gorton 1969, Fraser 1980, Keating 1993, Howard 2004, Gillard 2010 and now Morrison 2019. I don’t agree with all of those assessments. In particular, the current Coalition Government has stayed on three terms longer than it deserved – but there you are.

  15. Stop press: Australia is sending 20 more Bushmasters to Ukraine. The Morrison Government has thereby done one thing that I support.

  16. Zoe Daniel and Allegra Spender anti-semitic ? Dirt politics strikes again.

    Tony Abbott fan club leader and RWNJ Peta Cretlin, still smarting over Tonay getting rolled by “ a so called Independent” has launched a series of videos “exposing” the false flag Independents running in the 2022 election campaign.

    First interviewee was Tony Abbott of course. In her hard hitting {lol} series The Campaign Uncovered , Abbott says the Independents are all “Labor in disguise” and their intent is to” Help the Labor party and to hurt the Liberal Party”.

    This of course is nothing more than a dirt machine propaganda exercise. The first of the targets are Zoe Daniel [Goldstein] and Allegra Spender [Wentworth] who are running in seats with a high proportion of Jewish voters.

    The Australian is claiming, for example, that
    “Senior campaign operatives for independent Zoe Daniel have publicly called for Jewish advocacy groups to “shut up” and have compared Scott Morrison with Adolf Hitler.”


    And the official campaign hasn’t even kicked off yet. All this effort by Cretlin to run a series of anti Independent expose videos and The Australian joining in the parade tells me the Liberals are seriously concerned about losing seats to the Teals at this election. Let the games begin.

  17. South

    Lots of savings built up. For everyone ? Bloody huge debts though eh? So that will start to dwindle more rapidly under continuous rate rises or tighten the belt which will have great impact on the wider economy. I’m not so benign as you.

    Howard’s average mortgage compared to now is like comparing different planets. I’m glad your so ho hum business as usual but I feel like we’re 200 metres down the road from where a B Double truck has just lost control and we’re just waiting to see what the carnage is by the end.

    For the sake of actual people and their lives I really hope the conservative nirvana continues. The alternative is going to be very difficult for a whole range of Australians. From FNQ to VST.

  18. mjsays:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 11:04 pm
    @aaron It seems like Morrison will ask the GG to issue writs for an election by Sunday. I can’t see how Morrison won’t lead the LNP to the election, even if people within his party wanted him gone there’s no practical way of replacing him. It kind of feels like the LNP and the organisations that support them are not all that keen to win this election. I’m guessing they are expecting imminent interest rate rises and if its only a couple of % points that’s going to be disastrous in a country drowning in absurd levels of household debt.

    It is increasingly becoming clear that some of the Tories want to lose the coming Federal election because the economy is in a mess and the Libs don’t know what to do about it. The situation can be comparable when Menzies resigned at the start of WW2. A lot of Mines have been laid in plain sight. When they explode in the coming 3 years Tories want to blame ALP and get back into power in 2025. The country will face a very rough weather metaphorically and literally in next 3 years and the Tories want to sheet the blame on ALP for coming difficult times. That is the reason so many Tories are firing shots at current Federal government.

  19. Morrison is now being compared to Hitler (it just gets worse for him)

    Daniel team compares PM to Hitler
    Campaign organisers for independent Zoe Daniel publicly called for Jewish advocacy groups to ‘shut up’ and compared Scott Morrison to Adolf Hitler.

  20. ParkySP ,
    For the most part, rising interest rates will have the effect of dropping the economy into a DEEP recession. As discretionary money will be eaten up by mortgage payments. Lowering rates won’t help people out of the hole because once people start to live thriftily, the habit of excess will be broken for a generation.

    We actually need a reforming ALP government. I do worry that in order to win power, Albo and co will not tackle serious reform. I know reform is a pipe dream under the LNP.

    Anwywa, there are other expensive bills in the economy that the government could look to ease and generate economic activity. Say creating lots and lots and lots of really cheap electricity. But again, it’s a reform agenda thing.

  21. Rising interest rates played a huge part in Howards 2007 loss. Labor denounced his 2004 promise to stop interest rates rising relentlessly during that election.
    My wife & I entered the housing market at that time. Compared to just 5 years earlier we did have a big mortgage and have technically been ‘mortgage stressed’ ever since (ie 30%+ of after tax household income going into the mortgage).
    But its nothing compared to my younger relatives & work colleagues etc. They are all staring down the barrel of A) not entering the housing market until their late 30’s or 40’s because of the gigantic deposits required, and then B) losing 50-60% of their after tax income to that near million dollar mortgage for their *entire* working life.
    The 2-3% interest rate rise during the end of Howards era was tough, but this time around it will financially destroy an entire generation of ordinary Australians in the prime of their earning lives

  22. If rates go up 2% we end up with where rates where roughly in 2020 pre-covid.

    Sure there are people who have over borrowed – but its hardly a crisis with record low unemployment.

  23. Real interest rates have been negative. This has fuelled unsustainable gains in the price of land. Once interest rates become positive again land prices will fall. The higher interest rates go the greater will be the contraction in land prices. It’s just inevitable that the real estate bubble deflates. This will have effects on households right across the economy.

    Hopefully the adjustments will not be sudden but will be gradual and will allow households scope to manage their incomes and their mortgages.

  24. WeWantPaul @ #1331 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 8:35 pm

    The Adam Something video on starlink, also where I remembered the Theranos comparison from!


    There are others

    Right. Well that was a waste of 30 minutes of Musk hating bilge. Whoever that guy is with his juvenile editing and stupid imagery, get back to me when he has done something positive for the world, let alone become the richest man on it. But meanwhile, if you can find anything to back up your assertion that Starlink is “a con” – which for me means getting ripped off, not getting what you pay for, or value for money – let’s hear it.

    Right now, I am getting 186 Mbps download and 6.93 Mbps upload, and even that’s after a loss in the relay from the dish, which is about 100 m away in clear air, to the house (up there the speeds are typically 200+) and meshing through the house, and with no discernible latency; there’s a fair bit of zoom meeting and the like going on here, where the verdict nudges genius.

    If you want to venture into what’s a “con”, then I’d focus more on the NBN and it’s SkyMuster.

  25. Itza,
    The lesson is always there to be learned… don’t believe everything you read on the internet! Some people have axes to grind, on blogs and vlogs. And often they search around for each other. 🙂

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