The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.
The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.
The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).
This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.
Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.
There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).
Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.