The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.
The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.
The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).
This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.
Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.
There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).
Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.
I daresay there wasn’t a queue of labor people looking to run in Hughes a couple of years ago, much less many sons of migrants who thought they might have a crack.
Back then Kelly was still in the liberal camp and teals and sundry independents were but a handful of people meeting in in each other’s homes.
Nobody would have thought Hughes was winnable for labor. I still don’t
Hindsight is 20-20 vision on PB
Actually Labor had a very memorable candidate for Hughes a few elections back – her accusations led to the resignation of the then NSW General Secretary of the ALP.
Nath, if he has any pride, is probably deep in the video he abused trying to find an error. Good luck to him if he does I’d like to have it pointed out.
Shock story in the Oz:
Abbott promised me The Lodge: Hockey
Tony Abbott made a secret deal with Joe Hockey to hand over the prime ministership but Malcolm Turnbull thwarted the arrangement.
“I daresay there wasn’t a queue of labor people looking to run in Hughes a couple of years ago, much less many sons of migrants who thought they might have a crack.
Back then Kelly was still in the liberal camp and teals and sundry independents were but a handful of people meeting in in each other’s homes.
Nobody would have thought Hughes was winnable for labor. I still don’t
Hindsight is 20-20 vision on PB”
You don’t get preselection by accident. You either are picked by someone who knows you’ll do what you are told or you work a long and hard road that almost inevitably will require you take brutal actions. You’ve got a long long time to write home to your other country of allegiance and surrender it.
Of course they don’t because they like having two passports and two potential homes. You can’t really blame them for that, but equally it seems misplaced sympathy if they snooker themselves by holding on too both homes for too long.
It would cleanup this whole mess if there was a law that you couldn’t have dual citizenship and there was no doubt about your Australian Citizenship but that you instantly lost if it you leveraged any other.
Neat clean and fair for all.
HH,
Hockey is still trying to pass the 2014 Budget.
Greensborough Growler @ #1355 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 9:17 pm
He coulda been a contender!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/scott-morrison-weighs-in-after-frosty-central-coast-pub-exchange/news-story/99c63d9b8e08dfab9df3bd1f56d22669
Not paywalled.
BW,
I want to know how someone from the Adelaide set pronounces “dialect.”
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 9:12 pm
Nath, if he has any pride, is probably deep in the video he abused trying to find an error. Good luck to him if he does I’d like to have it pointed out.
__________
I wouldn’t waste my time on that rubbish.
You should back your judgement and short sell Tesla stock and any other company Musk takes public. You will make a fortune if you are right.
But I suspect you won’t.
Another one when Nath has debunked the previous debunking video:
https://youtu.be/2vuMzGhc1cg
Loved the comments:
“I think you’re very unfair to the visionary genius who invented slow underground taxis.”
Still a more intellectual defense of Musk than Nath has offered so far.
“I wouldn’t waste my time on that rubbish.”
It is pretty clear y0u don’t waste any time on gathering facts or applying logic.
WeWantPaul says:
Still a more intellectual defense of Musk than Nath has offered so far.
______________
He doesn’t need my defense. The market has valued his stake in Tesla and Spacex at $267 billion U.S.
Take it up with Goldman Sachs.
WWP,
Another rambling rant of no consequence.
The problem is that some people born in Australia have entitlement to dual citizenship through their parents.
Marn Fer’sun reckons it is pronounced Morr’sun.
“Another rambling rant of no consequence.
The problem is that some people born in Australia have entitlement to dual citizenship through their parents.”
I don’t have time to use simple words you might understand. I do understand how they get their entitlements it isn’t a mystery or a difficult to find out fault. I suggested two things you clearly couldn’t comprehend, but in short a law change, that is when the big people who go to canberra and vote on new laws in a building called a Parliament, second that almost all people who want to be the big people who get to vote on laws in the Parliament know years and years in advance and they have lots of time to fix their boo boos.
“He doesn’t need my defense. The market has valued his stake in Tesla and Spacex at $267 billion U.S.
Take it up with Goldman Sachs.”
Oh dear goddess give me a Jehovah’s Witness, or cult member to talk to, your argument is the magic infallible market.
Dear goddess.
The $70 million candidate
(SMH)
Dandy,
Exterminate! Exterminate!
Well I’ve got my laughs for the night, comedy gold. thanks all really appreciate it.
Dandy Murray at 9:21 pm
Before or after they have several cans of Coopers Hazy IPA ?
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 9:32 pm
Oh dear goddess give me a Jehovah’s Witness, or cult member to talk to, your argument is the magic infallible market.
Dear goddess.
___________________
They have access to earnings reports, technology analysts, etc etc. Gives them some idea of current value.
You have a guy who makes videos on youtube.
It would be good if we could tidy up our Constitution with regular minor and non-controversial amendments to bring it into the 21st century. Section 44 is one such, rooted in late 19th century concepts of citizenship and conflict of interest. There is no valid reason why a citizen of voting age who may have a residual right to other citizenship, possibly through a migrant parent, should be barred from standing for parliament. Likewise, there is no reason why a police officer or nurse at a public hospital should be barred from standing. The requirement for judges to retire at 70 is another one. That should be amended to something like “retire at an age to be determined by Parliament, not less than 70” or similar. Residual race provisions are another.
Maybe have a few small amendments at each election, agreed to by the government and Opposition beforehand.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 9:13 pm
Shock story in the Oz:
Abbott promised me The Lodge: Hockey
Was that before or after Abbott sold him the Harbour Bridge?
Speaking of rushed through High Court cases, it it 24 years since MUA/Patrick was heard, in a short period of time, in the High Court.
Fun fact – all judges in the hearing still with us.
poroti-says:
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 9:34 pm
Dandy Murray at 9:21 pm
BW,
“I want to know how someone from the Adelaide set pronounces “dialect.”
Before or after they have several cans of Coopers Hazy IPA ”
I would pronounce it is “dye-a- lect”, mind you, I’ve only called SA home for 30 years.
“Shock story in the Oz:
Abbott promised me The Lodge: Hockey”
Surely Joe did all the calculations on his Eleventy Calculator and the deal checked out?
GG, yeah that’s what I heard too!
Hockey would have been just as pathetic as the others.
The Dees are doing well, but it’s not like it’s going to be a 100-point win. #Lions
citizen @ #1377 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 9:54 pm
Don’t knock the Eleventy calculator! It’s so good that our very own Prime Ministers still uses it to work out how many budgets he has passed…
Port should achieve parity in about the 15th quarter.
You know your time’s up when even the IPA’s on your case:
[“Scott Morrison would have to be in my opinion the worst Prime Minister the Liberal Party has put up since Billy McMahon, except that Billy McMahon had principles,” Mr Rozner said on ABC’s Q&A.’]
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/worst-liberal-pm-conservatives-dig-at-scott-morrison-over-party-values/news-story/ca13d33552522f78b7ba8d50ddee4008
My guess is that Hockey would have been as hopeless a PM as Morrison. He was actually ‘supposed’ to win the Opposition leadership in December 2009. Abbott was in that sense an “accidental” Opposition Leader. Dutton was ‘supposed to’ ascend to the PMship in 2018 but Morrison came up through the middle, Jim Hacker style.
Robert Leesays:
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 5:22 pm
Sandman,
. It’s a shame you appear to be an ALP supporter. You should join the Liberals and raise both party’s collective IQ’s. There isn’t a big swell of anger in Bass. And I associate with a bunch of swinging voters.
–
We shall see on election day Robert how many of your swinging dicks stick with the Liberals and how many say f&U)*&) to Schomochio. Your IQ is slipping further down the scale every time you post more bollocks here on PB . I will call it out.
Saw this on twitter. Had a good chuckle
#QandA
When Gideon Rozner, Director of Policy at right-wing think-tank, IPA comes out and says:
“Scott Morrison would have to be the worst prime minister since Billy McMahon”
..You know the knives are out.
Shellbell,
In the end Port played a pretty good game. Totally undermanned in the forward half. But, a five goal loss was not too bad.
Melbourne scoring only 68 points against average opposition is a sign that the dynasty might not quite work out.
Qantas goes for gold (the passengers’ gold that is):
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/06/budget-polling-day-three/comment-page-28/#comment-3858792
That would require Coalition bipartisanship, rare when they are out of Government.
I agree on dual citizenship, however a lot of Australians don`t. The big question is which side are a majority of voters in a majority of states on.
I also agree on public servants, however anti-public sector forces are likely to support the no campaign.
On the subject of the race powers, the wording of the replacement is key as measures like the Race Discrimination Act and Native Title legislation rely on it for their Commonwealth jurisdiction.
Section 25 has been obsolete for over half a century since all states and the Commonwealth finished abandoning racial voting qualifications (with there return highly unlikely), meaning a provision to prevent states getting representation for disenfranchised races can be replaced. An explicit right to vote would be a good replacement because it would keep the lack of racial disenfranchisement permanent. However, as section 25 effects the proportionate representation of states in the House of Reps, it probably needs a majority in all 6 states (unless the reformed situation doesn`t count as potentially diminishing any states` representation).
It must have been very early in Tony Abbott’s prime Minstership that Abbott promised Joe Hockey the lodge.
Hockey had 0% chance becoming Prime Minister. Abbott wouldn’t have won the 2016 federal election so there would have been no succession plan for Hockey. And even if he did it’s unlikely he would have relinquished the Prime Minstership for Hockey.
Late in Abbott’s Prime Ministership Hockey was viewed as damaged goods from his performance as treasurer. At that point Hockey was no longer seen as a future Liberal leader. Even John Howard was advising Abbott to cut Hockey loose to try and save his Prime Minstership.
Joe Hockey ‘We need to live within our means’ mantra was all bullshit. The Abbott government doubled the debt and the Liberals now have pushed the national debt out to close to a trillion.
Victoria @ #1385 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 10:15 pm
He would be the voice of the proprietor/absent landlord of the IPA, Rupert Murdoch.
What I think is the interesting aspect of all this is that, Rupert Murdoch, as an avid Catholic, probably thought that by acceding to the installation of Scott Morrison, he would enable all boats of a religious kind to rise evenly. Only to find that Scott thought that the SS Pentecostal had right of passage. That Scott Morrison couldn’t skipper the ship of state probably had a bit to do with it as well.
However, trying to sideline the Catholics in the Liberal Party seems to have been seen by the Murdochs as Scott’s most inexcusable and unpardonable, and very mortal, sin.
Too bad, so sad, Scott.
IdesofMarch says:
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 8:48 pm
UComms poll of 833 Mackellar voters in the AFR. Liberal (Falinski) 35% primary, Independent Sophie Scamps 24%. No 2pp reported
Not-A-Lib plurality in affluent Sydney @ 2:1 against the Dark Blue Past. Essentially the same as in the rest of the country. The Lying Reactionaries are stuffed.
i believe liberals will hand over to dutton if morrison doesnt go sonn the ipa have allways been on his side this rubishfrom australian is not new in 2014 credlin said hockey is in lynn to be next premier there trying to distroy mat kean and zimerman when its the hard right leading the charge dutton was suposed to be hockeys deputy in 2009 but bishops suporters and pine backt abott even dutton said hockey should go
Clive’s ads are coming thick and fast during the Harry Potter movie I’m half-watching. The ads seem rather pointless. They feature the “F” word (“Freedom”) and take a swipe at Liberal, Labor and the Greens. However, they have no substance – no promises or policies.
Their purpose seems to be to collect the vaguely discontented – anti-vaxxers perhaps, anti lockdowners and those who are vaguely anti-everything who might otherwise vote for whichever party they always have.
It’s obviously a preference-harvesting operation by an oligarch. Maybe someone with a public profile should say that.
Hockey may well have had a genuine shot at taking over from Abbott if not for the 2014 budget, which was regarded as being among the (many) reasons the government was in such a bad spot around the time Turnbull made his move. Much of the party room probably would have preferred him to Turnbull.
Jason Falinski loses Mackeller with a primary vote of 35%, another problem for team Morrison.
As for Hughes, I doubt that seat was ever in Labor’s sights this time, they haven’t held it since 1996
james patiserson head of inteligents comity former ipa senyor oficial was one of duttons closist bakers but based on 20009 and 2018 think he would be a very polerizing choice loved buy the base how ever dont by that his popular in qld as frecklington couldnt handle media he was used as her procksie in qld to elect lnp and get rid of palascheck andthere was a increasedmurdocks papers switched to morrison talking him up as a future pm as far back as 2014 frydenberg is not an option because have no idea what he stands for and unlike pm has no personality
Standard seat poll caveat applies, but only 35% primary in a blue-ribbon seat like Mackellar has got to be setting the alarm bells ringing.
Jason Falinski got a 53% primary in 2019.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Mackellar
even sava is baking dutton spinning the myth that his some how sofind his image even though his stuft up defencecant think his style will do well in swing seats his even les apeeling then abott liberals wer not happy when credlin said hockey had be promised the next pm buy abott in 2014 as she was a staffer
Steve777 @ #1393 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 10:46 pm
As I said to my son, we already have freedom in Australia, we can do just about anything we want, when we want, as long as it’s not illegal. So what’s the case for us needing more ‘freedom’?
And then I said, what Clive really means is, he wants the freedom to do whatever the hell he wants. To dig up more coal and other minerals and wreck the environment. That’s what he really means. ‘Freedom’ for HIM.