Budget polling: day three

Resolve Strategic gives Labor its strongest result yet, but with some odds things going on the breakdowns, plus further good signs for Labor from a Roy Morgan national poll and two South Australian seat polls.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.

The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.

The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).

This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.

Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.

There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).

Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Budget polling: day three”

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  1. There is a fascinating 30m commentary on the SA election by Australian Christian Lobby people on youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxPjgMnfhHM

    Naming names as to who they talk to and who they support in various parties. Naming David Speirs as an “evangelical christian”. Also recording that One Nation was also in the tent along with both versions of the resurrected Family First party on preferencing against sitting MPs who supported a bill providing for late term pregnancy terminations in very strict circumstances.

    Personally I think the ACL people are gilding the lily a fair bit. They seriously campaigned in Lib marginals Newland Adelaide and and Labor marginal Mawson. About standard swings against Libs in 2 seats and a massive swing for Bignell in Mawson.

    I’d be interested if anybody has looked at the preference run of the parties with the ACL strategy. My guess is that it all came to nothing much but I haven’t seen or calculated any figures.

  2. Monbiot on the job.

    We have a new term for doing nothing: “learning to live with”.

    This government is incompetent by design. Doing nothing is what Tory donors pay for. Doing nothing is what the billionaire press demands. Doubtless we’ll soon be told we need to take “personal responsibility” for ensuring our homes are not flooded and our power lines are not destroyed by storms.

    No, he’s not talking us, but the lot they’re saddled with up there. Interestingly, he gets into some nitty gritty on flood and flood management. Over clearing and environmental degradation has long been one of his fetishes. How applicable what he is saying about river management in the UK to our situation I don’t know. But, the principle he is driving home does – “There is no learning involved in “learning to live with”. It tends to mean an inability to adapt to new realities, and in some cases looks like a total retreat into abstraction.”


  3. “A trust-based campaign with a disliked incumbent is a brave move… but he’s got nothing else.”

    Albo does need a head kicker, prepared to get their head kicked by Murdoch Stokes and Costello’s evil minions.

    Someone who comes out with ‘Who would you trust this serial liar who doesn’t hold a hose and goes on holidays in a crisis or Albo who positive attribute’ etc etc

    They don’t play hard ball but they could and should but it can’t be Albo. Perhaps it should just be a rule that whoever is number 1 on a senate ticket in a given state must try to do this role.

  4. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 6:07 pm
    “Bipartisanship is a different thing to having the same M.O.

    Alias – time for a Bex and a good liedown.

    Where in the world is Cathy O’Toole / Peter Jones today?”

    So not a ning-nong. I called you out on your hypocrisy and this is your response.

    A Morrison wannabe 🙂

  5. [‘Clive Palmer has pledged to spend at least $40 million on an advertising blitz for his United Australia Party over the next five weeks, as he seeks to shape the Senate’s balance of power in the next Parliament.

    The billionaire mining magnate, who is running for a Queensland Senate seat, said he personally believed the Greens should be preferenced ahead of the Liberal and Labor parties at the May poll. But he would not reveal how the UAP would direct its supporters to preference the parties, other than to say they would be “the last three” on its how-to-vote cards in the lower house.

    Speaking at the National Press Club on Thursday, Mr Palmer estimated he would spend a total of $70 million on the UAP’s advertising campaign, having already spent more than $31 million since August.

    “I’d say that between now and the election we’ll spend about $40 million,” he said.’]


    Not that he has one but Palmer would assuage his conscience a little if he were to give the $40M to those in desperate need, like those poor souls in Lismore and surrounding areas. He won’t win any seats and is unlikely to secure a Senate seat. This $18B man is cancer on the polity.

  6. Labor’s candidate for the hotly contested federal seat of Hughes in Sydney has withdrawn over section 44 citizenship concerns, leaving the ALP scrambling to find a replacement just days before the election is likely to be called.

    Peter Tsambalas, a local teacher, was preselected unopposed by ALP branch members in January. But he had not been officially endorsed as he was waiting for notification from Greek officials that he had officially renounced his Greek citizenship. He began the process in December 2021.

    Despite being born in Australia and having Australian citizenship, Tsambalas acquired dual citizenship via his migrant parents.


  7. The Labor candidate for Hughes, Tsambalas, has been bowled out by s.44 – his Greek citizenship. Given the publicity concerning the instant section, you’d think Labor would have
    thoroughly vetted him.

  8. To be fair Mavis I am sure they did – the Greeks were just too slow in processing his renunciation of Greek citizenship.

  9. mike,

    To paraphrase Nikki Savva.

    Scott Morrison always waits till the last possible moment and then messes it up.

  10. Harsh call Mavis.
    The labor candidate in Hughes set in train the process to renounce his Greek citizenship in December.
    Probably thought, with justification, it might be done by now.

  11. Section 44 is no longer fit for purpose. It needs to be redrafted or scrapped. That’s both the citizenship provisions and those for conflict of interest. Regarding citizenship, if you can vote you should be eligible to stand for Parliament.

  12. Steve777 says: “Section 44 is no longer fit for purpose. It needs to be redrafted or scrapped.”

    It’s the vibe, it’s the Constitution …

    Majority of votes in a majority of states required.

  13. Lars & Rossmcg:

    We are some five weeks from the election. If his citizenship hadn’t been sorted by say January, he should’ve withdrawn his
    candidature. Harsh I know given Greece has been slow in
    sorting it out. The current Member for Hughes has a 9.85% margin, a seat that could go to Labor in a uniform swing. Now his replacement has a very short time to make a splash.

  14. Mavis sometimes I think behind that amiable exterior , come the revolution you’d happily sign the execution warrants for the class enemies and traitors.

  15. If, as seems likely, the mass of voters have turned decisively against Mr Morrison, there’s a fair chance that a strident fear campaign will just annoy them more, draw more attention to his fundamental shallowness, and cost him and his party more votes.

  16. The Labor candidate in Hughes won’t have much less time than Morrison’s captain’s pick.
    And the High Court is still to rules on that, though I suspect the justices won’t interfere

  17. “The candidate should have just been more careful in selecting his parents.”

    If he was contemplating a run perhaps he could have written home to Greece to get his clearance a year or two earlier, you know rather than late last year in a pandemic.

  18. WeWantPaul says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 8:35 pm

    The Adam Something video on starlink, also where I remembered the Theranos comparison from!


    There are others
    It’s incredible that Musk haters direct you to the most amateurish and asinine video clips. It’s a shame Cud isn’t here to direct us to a few others.

  19. “As always, you’re full of froth and judgement. But, not much substance.”

    You are going to go with that, really?

  20. “It’s incredible that Musk haters direct you to the most amateurish and asinine video clips. It’s a shame Cud isn’t here to direct us to a few others.”

    So nothing there you actually understood or could disagree with, GG level analysis there, you must proud.

  21. UComms poll of 833 Mackellar voters in the AFR. Liberal (Falinski) 35% primary, Independent Sophie Scamps 24%. No 2pp reported.

  22. On a board full of hate for those of faith, you know those who have faith in things not seen, those Musk fanbois who still have faith in Musk but have seen over and over and over again his lies, is next level faith. Flat earthers would be shocked at the stupidity.

  23. Would that be pronounced Morry sun or Morry sohn?
    But where should the emphasis lie?
    Maybe MOH-ree-son or Moh- REE-sun? Maybe Moh-Ree-SON?
    Hang on. Could it actually be Mo-rees-un?
    Well worth a gnaw and a gnibble, no?
    Why is there a perfectly ridiculous and excessive doubling of the ‘r’?
    What sort of name is that?
    Who was this Morris forebear of whom we speak?
    Why isn’t it Maurice? Much flashier! And only one ‘r’!
    But wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute…
    How does Frydenberg pronounce… Um, no, bad choice in the pronunciation stakes! The gutteral ‘g’ preceded by a rolled ‘r’ is such an anglophone game stopper! They ALL get it wRONg every single time!
    Well then, how does Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (Now THERE’s a cracker for the mispronunciation wankers to feast on). Well, then, how does SHE pronounce the Prime Minister’s name?
    How did Turnbull pronounce ‘Morrison’?
    And so on and so forth ad nauseam. And I mean ‘ad nauseam’. Latin is so easy.

    Well then, how do we pronounce ‘Albanese?’
    Easy as:
    ‘decent’, ‘principled’ and ‘competent’.

  24. Lars Von Trier:

    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 8:21 pm

    [‘Mavis sometimes I think behind that amiable exterior, come the revolution you’d happily sign the execution warrants for the class enemies and traitors.’]

    How dare you compare me with “The Incorruptible”. To be honest, yes but only Tories. My point is that s.44(iv.) has been prominent for some time now, catching a number of pollies in its net. Perhaps Greece would’ve expedited his application if a donation to the restoration of the Parthenon was offered(?).

  25. nath @ #1336 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 8:46 pm

    WeWantPaul says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 8:35 pm

    The Adam Something video on starlink, also where I remembered the Theranos comparison from!


    There are others
    It’s incredible that Musk haters direct you to the most amateurish and asinine video clips. It’s a shame Cud isn’t here to direct us to a few others.

    You are a persistent and perennial hater, aren’t you, nath? Cud not here to defend himself (because he actually has a real day job which involves contributing to the betterment of our society, something you seem not to be within a bull’s roar of), and you come out from under your rock and take a swipe. Oh well, I’m sure your fan club here of one will applaud you.

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