Budget polling: day three

Resolve Strategic gives Labor its strongest result yet, but with some odds things going on the breakdowns, plus further good signs for Labor from a Roy Morgan national poll and two South Australian seat polls.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.

The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.

The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).

This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.

Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.

There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).

Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Budget polling: day three”

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  1. Chatting to son over a messenger application today. He works in Re-insurance, at a relatively high level.

    He voted Liberal last time – and none of us have let him forget it – but he thinks that Morrison is gone. He also says he feels silly having voted for Morrison. I explain it away by him being too close beholden to his Trump loving FiL, and having been persuaded to move over to where Jesus lives in Cherrybrook. Also, at his work, Sky News plays on the big screen 24/7, like the menacing and omnipresent Big Brother.

    His siblings are not so forgiving.

    However, when I said that PvO and Sam Maiden said that the Liberals were definitely in with a chance, and expected that another “miracle” win would be forthcoming, his answer was “No Way”.

    Apparently his business colleagues, normally a Coalition voting demographic, are giving him unsolicited opinions of Scott Morrison, and why they will break with tradition and vote ALP.

    At least in the halls of financial power, the baseball bats seem to be out.

    Edit – considering where his business colleagues likely live, North Sydney and Wentworth, and a fair smattering in Reid, I would expect that in Wentworth and North Sydney they will vote for teal independents. It is the Reid people who will vote ALP.

  2. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he was standing up for the women in his party by imposing his handpicked candidates in several key seats in a decision made just days before he was expected to call the federal election.

    Speaking on the ABC’s 7.30 on Tuesday night, Mr Morrison said Liberal Party factions were trying to take out women candidates, including Environment Minister Sussan Ley, who has been re-endorsed to stand in the seat of Farrer.


    As always he’s a day late and a dollar short, having had his entire time in the leadership to stand up for the women in his party and failing on many occasions.

  3. “‘Dirt Machine on Steroids’: Labor’s ‘grubby’ campaign on Morrison”

    Here comes the full on Trumpish garbage sure to be all over this election !

  4. Goll

    SkyNews appear to be missing the point, no need for Labor to run a grubby campaign on Morrison given that his own party is doing such a wonderful job of it’s own accord, allowing Labor to focus on policy. Utilising the Napoleonic theory of not interrupting the enemy as he is making mistakes is working a treat.

  5. Confessions

    He has a real credibility mountain to overcome on this issue given that it seems mostly women are complaining against him regarding bullying. He’s just giving us an insight into his parallel universe, this really just reeks of marketing and I hope will be seen for what it is.

  6. It seems there’s not too much for Labor to be disappointed about in these latest polling figures either. The trend continues almost inexorably. Now they just need to maintain a disciplined election.

  7. Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    The Prime Minister just told ABC 730 Gladys Berejiklian “denies” the “horrible, horrible person” text. That is an out and out lie. #auspol


    A definite credibility gap!

  8. Usual disclaimer about seat polls, but always good to see some that point in the direction you’d expect given the national polls. Confounding seat polls were something I recall from the last election, which somewhat rang alarm bells.

    Hope you’re all well, and the election calling is surely imminent now.

  9. And just like clockwork, the seemingly endless defence procurement debacle continues:

    “At the same time, the Defence Department is refusing to answer questions about progress on an earlier related program for the army’s Combat Reconnaissance Vehicles (CRVs), with military insiders warning the Boxer project is facing numerous technical problems.”


  10. ” ‘I stood up for the women in my team’: Prime Minister defends NSW Liberal Party ‘captains’s picks’ ”
    Jorge Branco 9NEWS

    It would seem that some women from ‘my team’ have an ‘axe to grind’ !
    Hopefully there are many women with an ‘axe to grind’.
    (The hide of them)
    It’s ‘my team’ , Morrison could have added again if they missed it,
    (silly things !)
    The same pattern is seen with Morrison’s other relationships before ‘god called him’ to become a politician!

  11. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 5:32 am

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he was standing up for the women in his party by imposing his handpicked candidates in several key seats in a decision made just days before he was expected to call the federal election.

    Speaking on the ABC’s 7.30 on Tuesday night, Mr Morrison said Liberal Party factions were trying to take out women candidates, including Environment Minister Sussan Ley, who has been re-endorsed to stand in the seat of Farrer.


    As always he’s a day late and a dollar short, having had his entire time in the leadership to stand up for the women in his party and failing on many occasions.

    With the Liberal campaign against Morrison going so strong I wonder if Morrison will have time to campaign against Labor?

    Goll says:
    Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 5:43 am

    “‘Dirt Machine on Steroids’: Labor’s ‘grubby’ campaign on Morrison”

    Here comes the full on Trumpish garbage sure to be all over this election !

    Liberal’s dirt machine has always been a step up from Labor’s and it has all guns focused on Morrison. I wonder if it will try and refocus on Labor before the election.

  12. Confessions

    It seems lying is almost pathological in Morrison. He has that capacity to look people in the eye and deny clear facts without blinking. In good news, it keeps the narrative running.

  13. The 3 Liberal candidates subject to the Camenzuli court challenge are:

    Alex Hawke
    Trent Zimmerman
    Sussan Ley

    ScoMo says his intervention to confirm them was ‘standing up for women’, presumably against forces wanting to install a right wing male instead of Ley. No mention of the other two, especially Hawke – who has been in a mutual society with ScoMo for over 20 years.

  14. Bludging

    You lived through the destruction of the Liberal party in WA, was it like this?
    Where the Liberals campaigning hard against the Liberals, or is this something new?

  15. Confessions @ #8 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 6:02 am

    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    The Prime Minister just told ABC 730 Gladys Berejiklian “denies” the “horrible, horrible person” text. That is an out and out lie. #auspol


    A definite credibility gap!

    What is totally amazing is that there is evidence in black and white that Morrison is lying about this, but still he lies about it!

  16. sprocket_ @ #14 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 6:18 am

    The 3 Liberal candidates subject to the Camenzuli court challenge are:

    Alex Hawke
    Trent Zimmerman
    Sussan Ley

    ScoMo says his intervention to confirm them was ‘standing up for women’, presumably against forces wanting to install a right wing male instead of Ley. No mention of the other two, especially Hawke – who has been in a mutual society with ScoMo for over 20 years.

    And here he is using a woman as a human shield again. He really wants to protect Alex Hawke but uses Sussan Ley as his sympathy getter.

  17. That exquisite journal of record, the Daily Mail, has a lengthy piece on ScoMo’s grilling by Leigh Sales, including this alleged ‘further leaked texts’ from GladysB. I thought these were already in the public domain, however the re-heating of Morrison’s bastardry could be a barnacle he will have to live with..

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been accused of lying again after insisting to veteran journalist Leigh Sales that Gladys Berejiklian denied sending text messages calling him a ‘horrible, horrible person’.

    Mr Morrison made the claim as Sales bombarded him with questions about his leadership in a tense showdown on ABC’s 7.30 program.

    Soon afterward, further leaked texts between Ms Berejiklian and a political colleague were posted online.

    The original text messages, first made public by political reporter Peter van Onselen on January 31, claimed Ms Berejiklian said Mr Morrison was more ‘concerned with politics than people’.

    The latest full text message exchange is even more damaging to the PM, with Ms Berejiklian questioning his motives and handing of the bushfires which devastated large parts of Australia in 2019.

    ‘Morrison is a horrible horrible person. He is actively spreading lies and briefing against me re fires’ she writes followed by a red-faced emoji.

    The politician on the other end is even more scathing in reply, calling the PM a self-obsessed ‘psycho’.

    ‘Morrison is about Morrison. Complete psycho. He is desperate and jealous. The mob have worked him out and think he is a fraud.’


  18. And just on The Liar’s claim that GladysB ‘denied’ sending the text, this is what she actually said back in January…

    In January, after the bombshell text exchange was made public, Ms Berejiklian issued a statement expressing support for the PM – but she never claimed she was not responsible.

    ‘I understand there has been some commentary today concerning myself and the PM. I have no recollection of such messages,’ Ms Berejiklian’s statement read.

    ‘Let me reiterate my very strong support for Prime Minister Morrison and all he is doing for our nation during these very challenging times.

    ‘I also strongly believe he is the best person to lead our nation for years to come.’

    Pointing to her flawed memory is not a denial…

  19. What is totally amazing is that there is evidence in black and white that Morrison is lying about this, but still he lies about it!

    All the cool kids autocrats are doing it – and so far getting away with it.

  20. You have to laugh about that SkyNoos idiot Kenny calling a Labor dirt campaign on SfM when SfM does it to himself with Leigh Sales last night. Telling Sales Gladys has denied those text messages is so easy to run a facts check on. He is definitely in self-destruct mode and I hope he keeps it up.

    Also, as noted above, it is the Liberal Party that is throwing the dirty toys out of the cot and aiming them at Scomo. Pop corn anyone ?

  21. Jaeger,
    Did you see this?

    Euronews Next

    Scientists have observed an enormous planet about nine times the mass of Jupiter at a remarkably early stage of formation – describing it as still in the womb.

    It’s a discovery that challenges the current understanding of planetary formation

    Researchers used the Subaru Telescope located near the summit of an inactive Hawaiian volcano and the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope to detect and study the planet, a gas giant orbiting unusually far from its young host star.


  22. Not wanting to preempt BK, but the dogs were up at 5am (no day light saving in doggy land), and trawling the usual, this AUKUS missile story is getting pretty widespread coverage in the major news outlets.

    Today, Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom, and President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. of the United States reviewed progress in implementing the Australia – United Kingdom – United States (AUKUS) partnership. The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, and more broadly to an international system that respects human rights, the rule of law, and the peaceful resolution of disputes free from coercion – a commitment whose importance has only grown in response to Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified, and unlawful invasion of Ukraine.


    Britain will work with the US and Australia in developing nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons, after Russia used the deadly high-speed missiles in airstrikes last month during the war in Ukraine.


  23. Fresh polling in the People’s Republic of the ACT… 2 polls in fact, mashed up in this report

    However, the first published polls covering the ACT senate race for the May election – undertaken in late March and given exclusively to The Canberra Times – show that Senator Seselja, at 25 and 24 per cent of the primary vote, may still be re-elected if sentiment does not shift before polling day with preferences expected to play a big part in the final result.

    “He’s still in the lead which advantages him,” ABC election analyst Antony Green said.
    “You need 33 per cent to win a seat in the ACT senate. 24, 25 per cent gets you a long way to that quota, but it leaves you short and at risk of losing on preferences.”

    The voter intention polling by Labor leaning pollsters Redbridge group show ALP frontbencher Katy Gallagher comfortably reaching the quota with 37 and 35 per cent of the vote. That’s down from her 2019 result of 39.3 per cent, but the polls show a bigger dent in the vote for Senator Seselja. He received 33.3 per cent of the vote in 2013, 33.1 per cent in 2016 and dipped below quota to 32.4 per cent in 2019.
    The polling also shows the Greens with candidate Tjanara Goreng Goreng, at 14 and 15 per cent, remain the main challenger to the major parties, despite Mr Pocock, at 11 and 13 per cent, shown to take a significant bite into the votes of all candidates.

    The two polls, one of 707 respondents conducted by telephone interviews (CATI) and the other a “robocall” survey of 1331 people on March 24 and March 22 respectively, show independent Kim Rubenstein behind the other challengers at 7 and 6 per cent, while Clive Palmer’s UAP shows the power of a massive advertising spend with a significant showing on the robocall poll at 7 per cent with low profile candidate James Savoulidis.

    Professor Rubenstein, a constitutional expert and author, is neck and neck with Mr Pocock on the female vote at 8 per cent, but has recorded a low first preference voter intention result with male voters at 3 per cent. The CATI poll shows she rates high with the over 70s vote at 15 per cent.

    There is a 4.3 percentage point margin of error for the CATI poll, while margin of error for the robocall poll is 3.3 per cent.


  24. Jaeger,
    Did you see this?

    I did; capturing it at an early stage of development is new, but that’s about all. e.g.:
    Astronomers Directly Image Massive Star’s ‘Super-Jupiter’ (2012):

    “It’s a discovery that challenges the current understanding of planetary formation” – no, that’s called “science.” Here’s a new data point; how does it fit our models?

    It’ll all blow over in a million years or so when they reclassify it as a brown dwarf. 😉

  25. Sydney’s City recital Hall will present a Concert For Ukraine Wed April 27.

    All proceeds from this event are going directly to Caritas Australia, who will use the funds to provide lifesaving support including shelter, food, clean water and other basic essentials. Caritas Australia works with long-term partner, Caritas Ukraine, and other Caritas agencies on the ground to reach those who have been forced to flee their homes.


    Underwritten by Australian philanthropist Judith Neilson.


  26. FYI, I trawled today’s Australian. No mention of any of the above polls except a brief note from Paul Kelly on the PV jump for the Labor Party and a claim that “Insiders” [who know who he is talking about] are confident SfM will win the election in the last days of the campaign including election day. Based on what ? Nothing.

  27. I hope they can get to them, Itza:

    Fighting by ground and air in Ukraine is making it difficult for humanitarian workers to gain access to civilians caught in the crossfire, the United Nations’ humanitarian aid chief told the U.N. Security Council.

    “Perilous conditions” are impeding civilians’ right under international law to move to safer areas without fear of attack,” said Martin Griffiths, the U.N. undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator. He also expressed concern about a growing number of reports of human trafficking, sexual violence, exploitation and abuse, primarily affecting women and children displaced in Ukraine and to nearby countries.

    “Ukrainian civilians are paying far too high a price for this war,” Griffiths said.


  28. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Here we go! The High Court will be asked to make the final decision on an extraordinary legal challenge to the validity of Liberal Party pre-selections on the eve of Prime Minister Scott Morrison calling the election, after a NSW court threw out the case yesterday. The High Court, however, is not obliged to hear the appeal.
    Meanwhile, the Liberal Party’s campaign to retain the marginal inner west Sydney seat of Reid has been destabilised after members of one local branch withdrew their support for the campaign of sitting MP Fiona Martin on Monday night. There’s trouble in paradise!
    Scott Morrison had a win over NSW pre-selections in court, but the political scars have badly damaged the Coalition’s hopes of picking up seats in the state, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    Latika Bourke outlines Morrison’s 7:30 appearance.
    The allegations that Scott Morrison played an active role in white-anting one of his preselection rivals over his Lebanese heritage and false claims that he was a Muslim should spark big questions about Australia’s attitude to race, and inspire deep soul-searching about our country’s media and political institutions, argues Osman Faruqi.
    Scott Morrison has presented himself as the least substantial of all the prime ministers in my time, but his influence on the way politics is conducted is profound, explains Shaun Carney.
    “From Banks to Cusack: Why is it always Liberal women speaking out?”, wonders Jenna Price. She says there is a circle of men surrounding the Prime Minister and it doesn’t help Morrison that his closest political mates are also all blokes, with Alex Hawke leading the group.
    Labor now has a real opportunity to break its 26-year-old cycle of decay and decline at the national level by achieving two results – resurrecting its long-depressed primary vote and winning a parliamentary majority in its own right devoid of reliance on the crossbench, writes Paul Kelly.
    Labor has once again failed to set out a credible fiscal repair strategy. For budget policy, this again looks like being a zero mandate election, complains the AFR’s editorial.
    True to form, The Australian trumpets, “Jim Chalmers rekindles Kevin Rudd’s spending mantra”.
    The Liberal party crisis is not a dysfunctional family soap opera – democracy is at stake, warns Anne Davies.
    Scott Morrison’s willingness to sign a statutory declaration over accusations of racism feels invalid considering his track record of lying, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson.
    The Canberra Times has a new poll that shows ACT Liberal Senator Seselja in the fight for his political life.
    There is an overwhelming sense of doom hanging like a pall over the Morrison government. If Scott Morrison embarked on an expedition to try to find some good news for his ­future, that search would undoubtedly prove fruitless and forlorn. The polls are just one pointer, but they are a significant one, Writes Graham Richardson.
    Anthony Albanese is taking the weight of Scott Morrison’s shortcomings and deploying these against him, explains Peter Lewis. He concludes with, “Morrison will continue to huff and puff about the risk of Labor and repeat his mantra that the former deputy prime minister has never held an economic portfolio; he will splash the cash around and attempt to dominate the daily news cycle with lovingly choreographed moments. But every day he does so he will be shining the spotlight on what has become his government’s greatest weakness: him.”
    With Scott Morrison on the nose in parts of the country, Liberal MPs may want ‘permission to distance’, writes Katherine Murphy.
    Crispin Hull explains how the Liberals’ Senate deal with the Nationals puts their own party in jeopardy.
    “The polls look grim for the Coalition. Will Queensland buck the trend again?”, asks Professor Anne Tiernan.
    If Liberal-National Party voters have a skerrick of integrity left they should assist the rest of Australia in ushering this Government out the back door, in a landslide, declares Geoff Dyer.
    There is a fundamental mismatch between the government’s rhetoric of national security and its astonishing lack of action. This isn’t a PR problem. It’s a substance problem, says Greg Sheridan as he continues his criticism of the government on defence.
    In the Morrison Government’s attempt to frame a “khaki election”, we have had a flurry of big announcements recently – nuclear powered submarines, new tanks, a new east coast submarine base, more people for the ADF and west coast dockyard infrastructure. What’s really going on? This is the first of four articles evaluating Australia’s defence written by “Admiral Prune”who represents a few very senior, long serving uniformed military officers with deep specialist expertise.
    Ross Gittins looks at the budget as a guide to who’s a Morrison mate and who’s not.
    Peter Martin explains the budget super giveaway that allows the already wealthy to amass even more tax-free money.
    There is a biased opinion amongst mainstream journalists that Labor governments overspend and are not prudent economic managers, whereas Liberal governments are “good with money”, writes Victoria Fileding
    Even a monetary policy alien from Mars would know interest rate rises are coming. But the RBA wants to wait a little longer before finally moving, says Shane Wright.
    Katina Curtis reports that Attorney-General Michaelia Cash made captain’s picks for six of the 19 people appointed to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal on the eve of the federal election. Federal ministers have made more than 120 appointments or reappointments to Commonwealth bodies over the past two weeks. A disgusting performance.
    Giving cushy jobs to political fellow travellers looks, and smells, like cronyism, says to Grattan Institute.
    Public institutions need the guidance of expert boards, and appointments to them should be well considered, transparent, merit-based and non-political. In many countries that’s normative and taken for granted. But not in Australia. Under the Coalition government the boards of some of our great institutions have been thoroughly politicised, declares Dr Ray Edmonson.
    The Morrison Government has ramped up its multi-million dollar spending on its most egregious rort of all, propaganda. Paid for from the public purse, to try to influence (in its favour) the way the public votes, writes David Solomon.
    The Labor campaign has walked back leader Anthony Albanese’s promise to mandate 24/7 nurses in aged care as part of its $2.5 billion reform package, clarifying that providers will be given “flexibility” if they cannot find enough staff. The difficulties go well beyond that. The size of a facility makes a big difference to such a proposal.
    Despite its grim truths, not all the news in the climate report is bad, writes Nick O’Malley.
    Rob Harris writes that as part of its climate change commitment, a Labor government would seek to co-host a UN COP meeting with Pacific Island nations.
    The Morrison government has been accused of sitting on a major report card on the state of Australia’s environment it received more than three months ago to avoid “more bad news”. Lisa Cox reports that Labor, the Greens, the independent MP Zali Steggall, environment groups and scientists have called on the government to release the Australia State of the Environment report, which is produced by scientists and compiled every five years.
    Anthony Galloway tells us that Australia will develop long-range missiles that can travel at least five times the speed of sound under a new agreement with the United States and Britain. Any questions on where the money’s coming from?
    Patrick Hatch gives us more from the inquiry where the Star Entertainment Group’s top financial crimes officer did not tell directors about a string of incidents that suggested dirty money was being laundered in the private gaming room of its notorious “junket” partner Suncity, when updating them on a media expose about the group’s criminal links. (Perhaps he was under an impression that the directors didn’t want to hear).
    The US had its moves worked out three years ago. Australia, with the most pro-American government since Holt, has been malleable, fawning, uncritical and easily led, laments Bruce Haigh.
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned the United Nations that it is giving Russia a “right to sow death” by allowing it a veto on the Security Council.
    Putin may be a war criminal but prosecuting him is futile, opines the editorial in the SMH.
    Super funds must reveal on their websites the investments they hold, but some of the biggest and best resourced funds are leaving consumers befuddled, explains John Collett.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Cathy Wilcox

    David Rowe

    John Shakespeare

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding

    Mark David

    Fiona Katauskas

    Peter Broelman

    Mark Knight


    From the US

  29. Morning all. Like others I find it moving to see how much our great PM Scomo is willing to “stand up for great women”… like Alex Hawke and Trent Zimmerman?

    Morrison’s statement is self parody 😀

    For SA seats in the Federal election, Labor could do worse than promise to look at upgrading the rail line to Mt Barker and run battery electric tilt trains on it. It won.t be cheap, but Mt Barker is planned to double in population, so something will be needed or the freeway will be swamped, if it isn’t already. Alternatively there should be express bus lanes and a high frequency service built on the freeway, but that faces the problem of Glen Osmond Road

    As I have said before, these are the real transport problems Adelaide should be dealing with, rather than turning South Road into a six lane freeway at insanely high cost. The previously proposed tram extensions (one of which might win Sturt) should also be brought back, after Marshall and Morrison canned them. (IMO you could built a tram extension up the Parade to Penfold Road for around $500 million). It would get many users and might boost CBD retail too.

  30. Cat @ 7.03
    “7% of people in the ACT, of all places, would want to vote UAP!?! What is the world coming to!?!”

    Canberra, outside of the misconception that it’s all in around Parliament House, Morrison’s Castle, and the rather infrequent use of the Parliamentary Triangle is very much like the remainder of Australia in many respects.
    I’ll reference the recent closure of a high school having been declared an unsafe workplace due to a number of causes, all of which can be read about on the ABC or in the Canberra Times.
    7% of voters choosing UAP regardless of where they live seems extreme but across most of Australia thirty something percent choose the Liberal Party which also seems extreme to many of us.
    We are collectively ” a weird mob”!

  31. Surely Morrison’s goose is now cooked. 6 months ago I was very doubtful that Labor would win federally, given Albanese’s indifferent media skills, the enduring strength of the LNP brand on security and economic issues, and the very small number of LNP seats on low margins. But the ALP polling lead seems absolutely rock solid. We’ve had so many major events that could potentially have played into the LNP’s hands-the economic rebound of recent months, the AUKUS agreement on nuclear subs, the end of the Covid crisis (in the media that is, not necessarily in the real world), war in Ukraine, natural disasters, arguments over religious discrimination, and now the budget. And the impact of all of these on the polls? If anything, Labor’s position has strengthened, and Albanese’s personal ratings have also strengthened.

    So all that’s left is the campaign itself-the election is only a few weeks away! Given that the biggest electoral weakness of the LNP is probably Morrison himself, what can they do? Force-feeding the electorate 6 weeks of Morrison isn’t going to work. So maybe we’ll get 6 weeks of the evils of Albanese and the Labor party, plus how wonderful the LNP is at economic management and security.

    For what it’s worth, the individual seat betting markets have Labor winning 9 seats and losing none, for a rather modest total of 78 in the new parliament. Only Chisholm, Swan and Pearce are seen as easy Labor wins. There would need to be a pretty big shift back to the LNP for the result to be that tight.

  32. Thanks for your WaPo links C@t. Maybe you posted this, if not, here’s at you.

    ‘These Events That Are Unfolding Now Will Shape the 21st Century’
    Alexander Vindman on Vladimir Putin, the invasion of Ukraine and the dangers ahead

    Remember Vindman – the Ukrainian born Jewish retired United States Army lieutenant colonel who was the Director for European Affairs for the United States National Security Council (NSC) until he was reassigned on February 7, 2020. Vindman came to national attention in October 2019 when he testified before the United States Congress regarding the Trump–Ukraine scandal. His testimony provided evidence that resulted in a charge of abuse of power in the impeachment of Donald Trump. (wiki)

    Reassigned is the keyword there. We shouldn’t forget that Trump withheld Congress approved aid to Ukraine as he tried to blackmail Zelensky to get dirt on Biden and son.


  33. How could you forget Col Vindman!?! A gutsy hero.

    Speaking of gutsy, it seems that President Biden is going to attempt to push Russia to the economic brink and then kick it when it’s down:

    The United States has blocked Moscow from making more than $600 million in payments on its sovereign debt, pushing it closer to default over its invasion of Ukraine.

    Though the Russian government’s foreign currency reserves have been frozen for weeks, the Treasury Department has been allowing its bank, JPMorgan Chase, to process them on a case-by-case basis. On Monday, it told the bank not to process transactions anymore as two large bond payments came due, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive financial matters.

    A Treasury Department spokesperson said U.S. banks will block all Russian debt payments moving forward, forcing the Kremlin to dip into its dwindling supply of dollars or risk default.

    “This will further deplete the resources [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is using to continue his war against Ukraine and will cause more uncertainty and challenges for their financial system,” the spokesperson said.

    Russia now has 30 days to find another way to remedy the two large payments before slipping into default, according to two people familiar with the matter. Leading ratings agencies downgraded Russian debt to “junk” status several weeks ago.

    I wonder what China will do? India? Will they make payments to Russia that enables them to pay their Sovereign Debt?

  34. This is a good tack

    Labor has reportedly pledged to bid to host major international climate talks if it wins the upcoming federal election, in an attempt to improve relations with Pacific nations that are dealing with the practical realities of climate change.


  35. Good morning all and thank you, BK.

    This post has been updated to take into account the latest in a conga line of free character assessments of Mr Morrison. This time PvO has a blunt tilt and there are some additional words attributed to emails from She-Who-Cannot-Recollect.

    Morrison has allegedly or reportedly been called ‘menacing’, ‘controlling’, an ‘autocrat’, a ‘bully’, a ‘fraud’, a ‘complete psycho’, ruthless’, ‘not fit to be prime minister’, ‘a menacing wallpaper’, and a ‘horrible, horrible person’ and ‘he is actively spreading lies,’ by female Liberal colleagues.
    He has also been described as ‘lacking a moral compass’ and has been called out for using ‘offensive’ words by Liberal women.
    A current female Liberal MLC publicly accuses Morrison of ‘self-serving ruthless bullying’ and ‘he…thinks it is all about him.’
    Another former Liberal female minister was head of the organisation that sacked him. Why was Morrison sacked? Well, the relevant documents seem to have disappeared. Conjecture around the words ‘lie’ and ‘probity’ and industry complaints about the ‘process’ in relation to an $184 million contract have never been tested. So, all we know for sure is that he was sacked. But for 100% we certain don’t know why. It might even have been an unfair dismissal!

    But is all this this some sort of weird Liberal woman thing?

    Well, no. Liberal men don’t think much about Morrison either.
    Michael Keenan, a former Liberal minister, allegedly called Morrison an ‘absolute arsehole’.
    Peter van Onselon, a male Liberal leaner, speaking of Morrison’s explanation for his intervention in NSW pre-selections, said, ‘That is an out and out lie.’
    What does a former (male) Liberal Prime Minister say? ‘He is a liar. He has lied to me many times. He has a reputation for lying.’
    What does the current (male) Deputy Prime Minister say about Morrison? ‘He is a hypocrite and a liar.’
    What did Towke, Morrison’s (male) Liberal pre-selection opponent, say: Morrison ‘engaged in racial vilification’.
    Well, what about an independent female senator who held face-to-face negotiations with Mr Morrison? Morrison is ‘bullying’ and ‘intimidating’. It is like dealing with ‘a two year old with a temper tantrum.’
    Well, what about an independent female MP? She calls Morrison ‘disrespectful’.

    Maybe these character assessments are some sort of weird Aussie tall poppy thing?

    Here we have the thoughts of Ventner, the editor of the Dominion Post? ‘like a cross between Rasputin and Crocodile Dundee’.
    What about other reports from New Zealand? They allege ‘rottweiler’ and they allege ‘arrogance’.
    And just to round things off, French President Macron called Morrison a ‘liar’.

    We must have balance. Balance is only fair.

    Current Deputy Liberal Party leader, Freydenberg: ‘He has never lied to me.’ ‘He doesn’t have a reputation for it…’
    Current Liberal Minister, Payne doesn’t ‘support’ Mr Turnbull’s accusations.
    And finally…

    It is only fair to give Morrison a voice, ‘I don’t believe I have told a lie.’

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