SEC Newgate issues poll and Senate vacancy scuttlebutt (open thread)

Good to middling ratings for the Albanese government in a new issues poll, and talk of a Senate vacancy offering a second chance for defeated Liberal election candidates.

With a fortnight ago before the resumption of parliament, and what I presume will be the return of Newspoll to accompany it, two items to kick off a new week:

• The Australian reports SEC Newgate’s monthly Mood of the Nation survey finds “nearly four out of every ten” respondents believe the new government has done an excellent or good job so far, with 31% choosing the middle option of “fair” and 26% going for poor or very poor. It also finds a sharp increase in expectations that the economy will get worse over the next three months, up from 36% a month ago to 57%, with only 8% expecting it to improve, down from 13%. Given a long list of potential contributors to rising electricity prices, 42% thought “Morrison government inaction” a “large contributor” compared with 30% for “Albanese government inaction”.

Forty-seven per cent felt the Reserve Bank’s 0.5% interest rate hike last month (as distinct from the second hike last week) appropriate, with 31% thinking it too high and 9% too low. Sixty per cent said they were positive about transitioning to renewables and 55% believed progress had been too slow, compared with only 19% for negative and 17% for too fast. Sixty-one percent rated the 5.2% minimum wage increase appropriate, with 29% thinking it too low and only 10% too high. Regular questions on issue salience recorded mounting concern over cost of living, now rated extremely important by 68% (up five on last month), moving ahead of health care (down three to 61%). Forty-two per cent rated Labor best to manage the issue, compared with 23% for the Coalition. The survey was conducted June 23 and 27 from a sample of 1201.

• Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports “fresh gossip in Canberra this week” that Andrew Constance, the former state government minister who narrowly failed in his bid for Gilmore at the May 21 federal election, could be a nominee to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy that will be created if rumours of Marise Payne’s imminent retirement come to pass. Others who reportedly might be interested include Dave Sharma and Fiona Martin, also on the job market after their respective defeats in Wentworth and Reid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

752 comments on “SEC Newgate issues poll and Senate vacancy scuttlebutt (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 16
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  2. I don’t expect the Greens to lose many votes if they oppose Labor’s legislation. In fact I suspect they stand to lose even more votes if they compromise too much.

    They are a party that represents radical social and economic change and most of their voters understand this. They are not a big tent party, unlike the LNP and ALP. Being seen as hostile to the two main parties is part of their appeal. The ALP can’t change this, which is why I can understand their own hostility to the Greens.

    My point is that Labor has more to lose by taking a hardline approach than the Greens do. The Greens will likely retain their base regardless of how obstinate they become.

    I also don’t expect the environment to be a big double dissolution winner. Especially during a cost-of-living crisis.

    I remain optimistic about the ALPs policy. And with Pocock out there applying the right kind of pressure I am more hopeful then if we just had to rely on the Greens.

  3. Barney in Cherating @ #598 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 4:43 pm

    You constantly demonstrate a complete lack of understanding in how to implement change. You refuse to accept the reality now as the starting point and think we can progress as if it was something different.

    The first step in implementing change is understanding the need for change. Get back to us when you understand that.

  4. nath @ #591 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 4:26 pm

    C@tmomma says:

    Yeah, like a Mars Colony is totally doable.
    ________
    Imagine the alternative. Humanity never leaving the Earth, never exploring the Galaxy.

    I never said that should happen. However, I just don’t believe, from a geological standpoint, that Mars is where we need to base ourselves, as evidence I produced earlier today exemplified.

    On the other hand, to take your philosophical point and turn it around, do ants want to expand their habitat out into the universe and onto other planets which may prove inhospitable wrt the environment they are used to inhabiting, or are they happy getting into your sugar and taking it back to the nest to make more ants?

  5. My point is that Labor has more to lose by taking a hardline approach than the Greens do.

    Biltong Cinematic U,
    I think you’ll find that Labor have already compromised with both The Teals and The Greens but in a way that doesn’t scream it from the rooftops, unlike The Greens. Labor has subtly shifted their messaging to state that 43% reduction in emissions, is a floor not a ceiling. So they’re quite happy if 43% is exceeded now but they went to the election for a mandate for 43% and that’s what they want to enact. The Greens should agree with this after realising that they can work with the government to exceed this figure after it is legislated. To make the ceiling higher.

  6. Dr Doolittle @ #595 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 4:32 pm

    Re Cat at 3.21 pm

    Covid Princess has now offloaded passengers in Eden. ABC news photo shows no apparent protocols in place, just a rusty barbed-wire fence up the hill, not in the path of the passengers as they mingle around.

    NSW is the ‘Spread the Love Around State’. 😀

  7. poroti,
    I think you’ll find that the CFFMEU is essentially placated as long as their members get first bite of the cherry for Rare Earth mining jobs as the sector massively expands in order to fuel the Renewables’ Hard Infrastructure and EV/Battery sector.

  8. c@t: “CFFMEU is essentially placated as long as their members get first bite of the cherry for Rare Earth mining jobs as the sector ”

    As they should IMO. Mining and construction unions in oz have slashed the incidents and deaths in the industry over the past 20 years, in spite of the LNP. We want any build up of production capability to be done safely. There’s a lot of business to go around here, and everyone benefits if the workforce is trained, supported, and wants to do the work to a high safety standard. There’s a generation of change on offer here.

  9. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, July 12, 2022 at 4:50 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #598 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 4:43 pm

    You constantly demonstrate a complete lack of understanding in how to implement change. You refuse to accept the reality now as the starting point and think we can progress as if it was something different.

    The first step in implementing change is understanding the need for change. Get back to us when you understand that.

    I have clearly understood the need to change since the early 80s when I did my BSc in Meteorology and Oceanography, so was probably at that stage well before you.

  11. A Mars Colony would seem to be undoable by 2050 based upon today’s technology or anything that looks feasible within several decades. We’re struggling to build submarines by 2050, let alone a Mars colony.

    Extend the time horizon to centuries or millennia? The limitations imposed by the laws of physics still apply, so no Star Trek, but who knows what might be possible?

  13. Aaron newton:

    Tuesday, July 12, 2022 at 3:34 pm

    Unless they’ve changed, I’m not sure the Greens are capable of negotiation, made all the worse with their current dear leader, whose intransigence is well-documented. For them, it’s 75% or the highway. And relying on a Dutton-led opposition would be fraught.
    Although hoping it won’t be a repeat of ’09, I fear it will…

  18. Ven says:
    Tuesday, July 12, 2022 at 10:03 am

    That is to say, the approaches of the previous government and the present one wrt climate change policy are quite different. The reproach “same old/same old” is absolutely misguided.

  19. @C@tmomma456pm
    Agree 100% C@t. The 43% target legislated (as promised) and through Regulation, if necessary, Labor, without fanfare and political grandstanding, can work towards higher outcomes.
    It’s up to The Greens to back this approach with the reality that much can be achieved. To threaten to pressure the Government and provide ammunition for the left- overs on the Opposition benches for attack opportunities is ,IMO, counter to a clear desire for cooperation within progressive Parties by the voters.
    To claim, as one poster did, that The Greens have to force the issue to meet their supporters expectations, is understandable, but ultimately counterproductive. There is the reality that voters in this country are sick and tired of political argy- bargy and point-scoring.
    I know this is about exerting influence, as all Parties hope to do, but surely, after the tragedy and harm the previous Government caused, the progressive thinkers in Labor, The Greens,The Teals and Indies can work together to achieve valuable and practical outcomes.

  20. Ah shellbell.
    I have been following a particular criminal case where a person has been found guilty and been sentenced. He appealed the verdict and on the same day the prosecution appealed on the ground that the sentence was insufficient.
    Is this a frequent occurrence?

  21. The fact that the Liberals have chosen Peter Dutton as their leader means that they intend doubling down. Their words and actions in Opposition bear that out. They believe that they lost the election because they were too soft and fluffy, not Right-Wing enough. They will oppose everything, waiting for the new Government to fall over. With the help of their media allies, they’ll try to give it a push when they can. If it doesn’t fall over, they’ll yell loudly that it has.

    Negotiating with the Opposition is a waste of time.

  22. Steve777: “A Mars Colony would seem to be undoable by 2050 based upon today’s technology or anything that looks feasible within several decades.”

    A valid and quite understandable point of view. But we’re gonna find out.

    Those ships they call the starship system that they’re building right now, and imminently launching, are going to be mass-produced. Like cars. They don’t plan on making one, ten, or 50 of them. They plan on making thousands.

    The fuel for the rockets was chosen because it can be produced by renewables. They’re going to load em up, land em after a few craters get made, release hundreds of tonnes of robotic controlled construction equipment, and start mining for fuel resources: namely ice. And when that fuel production
    problem is resolved, the ships will come back for free, because that fuel will be made on Mars.

    But hey, you’re right. That fuel process might be 10x more difficult than originally ‘planned’, or you might need new equipment. But they won’t send one mission, they’ll send 10, 20, until one works. And then they’ll all work.

    And when the ships come back, the total amount of trips that can be made doubles. Then doubles again. Remember that this fuel can be made with renewables? It is expected that the fuel to reach orbit will only cost a couple of million dollars. And you get your rocket back.

    All of which could go horribly wrong for reasons no one can think of. But if you’re going to do it, this is how you’d do it if you needed to get a million tonnes of cargo to Mars.

    And I want my space rocket goddamit.

  23. Steve777:

    Tuesday, July 12, 2022 at 5:22 pm

    Please, no more discussion of Mars; it was bad enough last night. Indeed, if I were a Martian, I’d be worried about Musk, pi.

  24. BK

    Andrew Earlwood would know better but in respect of a conviction, it is common for the convicted person to appeal both his/her conviction and sentence and the crown/police can appeal a sentence as manifestly inadequate.

    Thus a scenario when the convicted person loses his/her appeal and the crown/police appeal is upheld (meaning a longer sentence) can and does happen.

  25. Hmmm …

    Bowen …

    Mr Bowen alluded to Europe’s dependence on imports of Russian hydrocarbons and how the trade had been drawn into what he described as Moscow’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

    By contrast, he said renewable energy was largely immune from manipulation.

    “By building resilient clean energy supply chains, we can protect our economies from the shocks of the next crisis,” Mr Bowen said in his speech to the Sydney Energy Forum.

    “The one supply chain no geopolitical crisis can disrupt is the supply of sun to our land and the supply of wind to our country’s coasts and hills.”

    Albanese …

    Albanese will also say Australia can cash in on booming demand for clean energy through major private power export projects, such as Sun Cable’s to bring solar energy from the Northern Territory to Singapore via an undersea cable and the Asian Renewable Energy Hub in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.

    You have to wonder if these two even talk.

  26. [‘Are there any legal types around at the moment? I have a question.’]

    Please first deposit monies into my trust account.

  29. [‘Thus a scenario when the convicted person loses his/her appeal and the crown/police appeal is upheld (meaning a longer sentence) can and does happen.’]

    Most rarely, and on those rare occasions, the DPP or police prosecutions would warn the client’s solicitor of their intention.

  32. Mavis – here is the guts of the article.
    _______
    Both the Crown Prosecution and a senior firefighter found guilty of sexually touching a volunteer during the 2019 bushfires in Casino will appeal the sentence, a court has heard. See why here:
    Tessa Flemming
    July 11, 2022 – 11:12AM

    A senior South Australian firefighter will appeal his sentence on multiple grounds after he was found guilty of sexually touching a volunteer during the 2019 bushfires in Casino, a court has heard.

    Gregory Michael Davis appeared virtually in Lismore District Court on Monday appealing his May conviction for three counts of aggravated sexual touching of another person.

    Mr Davis maintains his innocence regarding allegations he started touching a female volunteer on the thigh and tried to kiss her despite her telling him “no”when he was deployed to Casino to fight the December 2019 bushfires.

    The court heard during this time, Mr Davis and the woman couldn‘t find an open bar to have dinner at after their working day and decided to return to their motel.

    The pair were having a glass of wine in Mr Davis’s room when he started touching her despite her protestations and continued to touch her and rub against her back while not wearing any clothes from the waist down before trying to remove her clothing.

    The woman had protested to his actions and had managed to leave the room despite his request for her to stay, the court also heard.

    Throughout the hearing Davis maintained everything that happened was consensual.

    After about five days of hearings, Mr Davis was convicted and sentenced to 15 months imprisonment with three months non-parole in Lismore Local Court.

    However, the SA Metro Fire Service commander from Wayville immediately appealed the conviction and was granted appellants bail.

    On Monday,Judge Jonathan Priestley heard Mr Davis would appeal on the grounds of both conviction and severity.

    The court heard the crown would also appeal the sentence on the grounds of inadequacy, being that the sentence given was too lenient.

    Judge Priestley acknowledged the appeal had a “broad range of disputes”.

    He asked the conviction appeal be dealt with first on August 24,2022.

    He added Mr Davis could also submit his material for a severity appeal.

    The Crown Prosecution will then reply and set out their position for an inadequacy appeal.

  35. I came across this, as a timely reminder of tonight’s public J6C hearing.

    https://www.npr.org/2022/07/11/1110961285/the-next-jan-6-committee-hearing-will-focus-on-the-role-of-qanon-and-extremists

    Aides to the Jan. 6 select committee cited longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone and former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn as possible conduits between extremist groups and people in Trump’s orbit. In 2020, both Stone and Flynn received presidential pardons from Trump. The two men had separately been convicted on charges connected to former Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

    Jon Lewis, a research fellow at George Washington University’s Program on Extremism, said congressional investigators have the difficult task of explaining the “confusing web” of linking Trump’s allies and extremist groups. “It’s a small enough group of actors that everyone’s only at any point going to be maybe two degrees of separation from Mark Meadows, to Giuliani to Enrique Tarrio, or someone like that,” Lewis said.

    Episode 7: Trump’s Web of Power?
    July 13, 3am, PB time
    https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings

    NOTE: The time change!

  38. Thanks C@tmomma. These guys were so full of their self importance they wanted their place in history immortalised. I suppose they got that bit. Well, a little bit.

  39. BK:

    [‘The court heard the crown would also appeal the sentence on the grounds of inadequacy, being that the sentence given was too lenient.’]

    On the face of it, it seems an excessive sentence. Without knowing more, the appellant prisoner would appear to have a good chance with his appeal. Perhaps he has a history of this type of conduct but was never brought to book? Sometimes similar fact evidence* can be adduced, but generally, it’s viewed as prejudicial to a fair trial.

    *

    http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/AdelLawRw/1994/4.pdf

  40. Has Perrotet said the following on camera:

    – There was no suitable applicant in round 1
    – The Barilaro appointment was handled by a global talent firm
    – It was an independent process

    If so, which if any of Perrotet’s statements are true?

  41. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/11/queensland-authorities-report-covid-outbreak-on-cruise-ship-as-state-records-40489-cases

    Sadly predictable. The “covid protocols” invented for the cruise industry were just PR. We had over two years to get it right – get cruise ship owners to install proper air filtration and purification systems – and actually make these incubators safer for all airborne bugs. But nah… idiots.

    its also noted that Albo is making a bad decision cutting covid sick leave payments and its probably time one of his expert economists figured out that mask wearing will save money.

  44. Steve777 @5:22

    A Mars Colony would seem to be undoable by 2050 based upon today’s technology or anything that looks feasible within several decades. We’re struggling to build submarines by 2050, let alone a Mars colony.

    Extend the time horizon to centuries or millennia? The limitations imposed by the laws of physics still apply, so no Star Trek, but who knows what might be possible?

    The question everyone focuses on is whether it is technically possible. The question we should be focusing on is whether it is a thing worth doing. Put a bunch of humans on Mars long term. Does any of them actually benefit? Are any of them better off than if they had stayed on Earth. The simple answer is no. And I’ve put this question to dozens of Mars colonisation believers over the past couple of years and so far not one of them has identified a single benefit that would accrue to an individual human being that comes a) from living there long term (not just visiting) and b) is something unique to Mars and not Earth. They usually deflect onto “greater good” and “lifeboat” arguments. Which don’t stand scrutiny. But what interests me is what is the rational self-interest in living there.

    In order to have a “business case” you have to have self interest. No self interest? No business case.

  45. I used to wonder how Alan Joyce still had a job …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-12/nt-flight-cancellations/101230122

    Now, I applaud him – because I finally realized he is a Global Warming activist. He’s made flying so damned unattractive that people now prefer to stay home than fly either Qantas or Jetstar.

    On ya, Alan! You deserve some kind of recognition. Along with the entire board of the Princess Cruise company. Go you good things!

  46. The biggest problem with space travel is that it will be very limited until we can develop a means of traveling faster than the speed of light.

  47. Late Riser @ #638 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 6:16 pm

    Thanks C@tmomma. These guys were so full of their self importance they wanted their place in history immortalised. I suppose they got that bit. Well, a little bit.

    They believed they had a President on their side who would enable them to get away with what they had planned to do and who was willing to sacrifice his Vice President to get it!

  48. C@tmomma @ #647 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 6:43 pm

    Late Riser @ #638 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 6:16 pm

    Thanks C@tmomma. These guys were so full of their self importance they wanted their place in history immortalised. I suppose they got that bit. Well, a little bit.

    They believed they had a President on their side who would enable them to get away with what they had planned to do and who was willing to sacrifice his Vice President to get it!

    And were they wrong?

  49. Barney

    You mean interstellar travel? Its ok to dream.
    We’ll certainly set foot on Mars though – realistic but limited exploration. That will certainly be something.

  50. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, July 12, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    Steve777 @ #631 Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 – 5:53 pm

    ” You have to wonder if these two even talk.”

    Of course they do. Both are correct.

    Right. Classic doublethink.

    How is it “doublethink” when they are talking about two different things? Bowen, domestic energy security, Albanese, export opportunities.

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